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PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 246 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Today..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 11 seconds. Areas of drizzle in the morning, then patchy drizzle in the afternoon.
Tonight..NE wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue..E wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves E 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves se 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..SE wind 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt, becoming 20 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 2 ft at 9 seconds, building to W 7 ft at 13 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 9 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Thu..E wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves E 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves se 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 13 seconds.

PZZ200 246 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure builds over the waters through Wednesday. Warm front arrives on Thursday.

FXUS66 KPQR 111820 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1017 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

Aviation Discussion Updated...

SYNOPSIS
Areas of fog and light drizzle will continue into Monday before fog lifts and conditions begin to slowly dry out late in the day. Conditions then trend dry and mild for the remainder of the week as upper level ridging and low-level offshore develop, except late Wednesday into Thursday when a weak frontal passage will bring chances for light rain.

DISCUSSION
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Radar, webcam, and surface weather observations from 3:00 AM Monday depicted areas of fog and light drizzle across northwest OR and southwest WA as conditions remain saturated below 5000 ft. Expect these conditions to continue through most of the day as there will be very little low-level mixing and forecast soundings suggest conditions will remain close to saturation below 5000 ft into the early afternoon.
However, soundings suggest conditions will attempt drying out in the late afternoon and evening, which will bring an end to any lingering drizzle. This seems realistic as light low-level offshore flow will be developing at that time and will advect a relatively drier airmass into the area. That being said, it will take longer for the drier airmass to reach into the central and southern Willamette Valley when compared to the northern valley. As a result, areas of fog and light drizzle will likely last through Monday night to the south of Salem while locations to the north of Salem dry out first.

Tuesday is shaping up to be a dry day across all of northwest OR and southwest WA as models and their ensembles suggest upper level ridging will develop over the Pacific Northwest while low-level offshore flow strengthens through the day. By sunset, east winds will likely be gusting up to 30-35 mph in the Troutdale/Wood Village/Washougal area and 40-45 mph in the Corbett area. However, winds will be much lighter elsewhere for locations away from the Gorge. Expect some breaks of sun Tuesday afternoon for most locations, except in the southern Willamette Valley where low clouds will likely linger through the day (despite drizzle coming to an end).

Models suggest conditions will become cloudy across the area again on Wednesday as a weak Pacific cold front slowly moves eastward towards the coast. This front will be weakening after pushing inland Wednesday night/Thursday morning, which will help keep rain amounts rather light. The NBM v4.1 is showing a 15-25% chance for 24-hr rain amounts (ending at 10 AM Thursday) in excess of 0.25" from Portland/Vancouver to Salem to Eugene, and a 50% chance in the Kelso/Longview area. The coast has the best chance of seeing rain amounts over 0.25" as probabilities are at 60-80%, highest along the south WA/north OR coast. Wouldn't be surprised if guidance continues to trend drier in the coming days given low level offshore flow that will be in place ahead of the front.

Models trend drier again Friday into Saturday as WPC ensemble clusters favor a blockier pattern with ridging over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the eastern Pacific. Precipitation chances increase a bit on Sunday as the aforementioned trough makes slow progress towards the U.S. West Coast, however NBM PoPs are only around 15-30% on Sunday as there are plenty of model inputs showing no rain at all. As of right now, it appears the CMC brings precipitation in first when compared to the GEFS/EPS. -TK

AVIATION
High pressure builds over the area through the next 24 hours. Winds will be generally light aside from the Columbia River Gorge where conditions will be much gustier. Expecting winds at the surface around K4S2 around 15 kt, but as you move up in elevation to 2500 ft AGL, winds will be gusting as high as 35 kt.
Still considering LLWS in TAFs within the Gorge and around the mouth, but it will greatly depend on the height of those elevated winds. The biggest concern in the forecast is the formation of fog and drizzle. Due to clearing skies with the high pressure, there is a high probability of fog forming throughout all of the forecast area. Fog is expected to form around 06z Tuesday, with chances around 30-50% for the southern and central Willamette Valley, and less than 20% for all other areas, with the exception of KHIO at a 30-50% chance. South of KSLE and along the coast will linger longer, with dense fog expected after 09Z Tuesday.

*KEUG currently is missing visibility observations between 06Z-15Z. Because of this, visibility forecast is influenced by area observations. *

PDX AND APPROACHES...IFR conditions due to fog and drizzle, with improvement expected around 20z Monday as lifting begins and winds transition to the east. Expect MVFR conditions throughout the TAF period, with best chances of VFR conditions to occur between 01-05z Tuesday. Potential for some localized LLWS after 04-06Z Tuesday, however chances of directional shear still remain low enough to not include in the TAFs. The challenge will be whether or not there is enough mixing for the stronger winds aloft (at around 2000 ft) to mix down to the surface. Because conditions are more stable, do not expect gusty winds at the surface. Lower probability (10-20%)for fog reforming Tuesday morning as the easterly winds will keep conditions drier. However, if there is an inversion that sets up, fog is possible.
-JH

MARINE
High pressure builds in Monday which will bring a period of much more settled weather through Tuesday. May see periods of dense fog along the inner waters out to 2 NM in the mornings. A frontal system will move across the waters late Wednesday bringing small craft advisory winds. This is a weak front so not expecting a long-range impact. seas will rise from the current 5-8 ft to near 10 ft by Thursday. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

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Nestucca Bay entrance
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