East Jordan, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Jordan, MI

June 14, 2024 6:22 PM EDT (22:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 9:33 PM
Moonrise 1:04 PM   Moonset 1:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 320 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Through early evening - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tonight - Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday - Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday night - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 141917 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 317 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly tonight. Patchy fog?

- Increasing clouds and/or precip chances later Saturday.

- Dangerous heat looks increasingly more likely next week.

- Some shower/thunder potential at times next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Broad NW flow continues over the region...as pv niblet scrapes the EUP...and a subtle swirly in the flow crosses central MI attm. Mid clouds associated with this latter feature generally fading from what they were earlier as better subsidence slips into the region...as ridge axis between the two features overtakes northern Michigan. Diurnal heating continuing to generate some cu areawide...as well as promote better downward momentum transport, with gusts reaching up into the 15-20kt range thus far this afternoon. Drier air remains largely to our northeast over Ontario...though better mixing is promoting dewpoints into the lower 40s, especially over the interior areas. Seeing some semblance of lake breeze action despite this...especially in the Saginaw Bay region...with a nice shoreline-following cu field slowly trying to sneak further inland.

Primary surface high to slip overhead tonight...with weak pv strand slipping back northeastward through the area. Generally clear skies and winds becoming light and variable tonight; perhaps a bit of patchy fog, though nothing widespread expected attm. (Best chance of this would be over the EUP and perhaps Tip of the Mitt, where they have actually had rain in the last day or so.) High pressure should be slow to move out Saturday, with generally east to southeast winds early...becoming more south to southwest with time during the afternoon as return flow pivots in; would expect warmest temperatures to be on west of I-75...with highs making a run at 80 or so, especially in the usual downslope areas (i.e., TVC).
Generally pleasant weather expected Saturday, though clouds should be on the increase from the west during the afternoon...with an outside potential for some rain?

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Chilly tonight...Seasonable highs today in the 70s to upper 70s/near 80 for the Saginaw Bay region should allow for lows in the 40s to around 50, per a typical diurnal temp spread. Airmass is a bit drier than normal, so do think it could be colder in some of the typical cold spots, especially over interior northern Lower, as the high rotates overhead tonight. With pv strand pivoting back overhead as well, do have to wonder if this will have an impact on cloud trends (and ultimately temps). For now, though, expecting generally clear skies and temperatures likely to drop accordingly as winds generally go light. Perhaps even a few of the usually cold locations could drop into the upper 30s (e.g., Grayling, etc)...though for now, not expecting things to go much colder than this, now that we have greened up. Additionally, potential for a teensy bit of patchy fog tonight could keep temps from totally bottoming out as well...though not expecting this to be very widespread by any means.

Increasing clouds and/or precip chances later Saturday...Increasing warm advection Saturday should allow for the return of mid/high clouds, especially along and west of I-75 through the afternoon.
(Not impossible this could temper temperatures a bit from the current forecast.) Attm...appears any activity should remain to our west over WI...though some guidance is more bullish with the return of moisture and precip chances...potentially trying to develop pops as early as later Saturday afternoon over NW Lower into the EUP along the warm front aloft...though certainly not looking at anything surface based attm if anything were to develop...and think best chances will hold off till overnight Saturday night and beyond.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

All eyes directed at what looks to be a significant and perhaps prolonged heat wave next week. Expected transition of large scale features definitely supports such, with maturation of subtropical southeast ridging downstream of troughing digging into the Intermountain West and Rockies. Persistent southerly flow into the Great Lakes looks to be the result...a direct tap into the southern Plains and desert Southwest heat dome.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Heat indices next week...with secondary concern centered on shower and storm potential.

Details:

As mentioned above...all systems appear a go for a significant heat wave to visit the Great Lakes next week. Thermal profiles on nearly the entire deterministic and ensemble guidance suite are impressive...reaching maturity Monday and Tuesday. Simple breadth of warm air advection supports widespread highs topping 90 degrees both Monday and Tuesday across much of lower Michigan (well into the 80s north of that big bridge), with perhaps just slightly "cooler" readings returning by Wednesday and Thursday. Low level streamline wind analysis shows a decent tap into the Gulf of Mexico moisture plume, allowing dewpoints to reach well into the 60s Monday through at least Wednesday...forcing apparent temperatures at least a few degrees hotter than actual temperatures. Unfortunately this relatively moisture rich environment will not allow significant cooling during the overnight hours, with lows perhaps not falling out of the 70s for some areas, especially by Monday night and Tuesday night
Very uncomfortable heat indeed
and perhaps dangerously so for those working outdoors or for those who do not have access to home cooling
Now, with all that being said
the only possible detriment to this expected heat would be the development of moist convection. Pattern recognition strongly supports convective development along the ridge/trough interface...which currently is expected to remain just to our west for much of the period. However, have experienced countless times when initial convective outflow boundaries force a subsequent east displacement of this activity (although, given expected strength of southeast ridging...that definitely may not be the case this go around). In addition, would not be surprised to see some diurnally forced convection in our area, especially if lake breezes can materialize. While any convection may force actual expected highs from being realized, not matter how you slice it...much of next week looks uncomfortably warm at least.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Winds generally NW-NE at 5-15kt, gusting 15-20kts...as we mix higher than expected today. Decent cu field trying to hold on this afternoon, but struggling...cigs could drop periodically to SCT/BKN040, to perhaps as low as SCT030. Onshore lake breezes developing...esp south of KAPN along the Lake Huron coast, though KAPN could get in on this as well through afternoon. Expecting winds to diminish/skies to clear tonight...as high pressure slips overhead. Have gone ahead and included mention of fog/br at mbL overnight, though possible this could develop at other TAF sites including CIU, APN in particular. Nothing widespread expected, though. Winds become more E/SE Saturday AM, eventually shifting to SW toward end of TAF period or beyond...with increase in mid/high clouds from W to E through the day.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi42 minW 2.9G5.1 76°F 30.09
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi52 min 68°F 60°F30.0052°F


Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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Gaylord, MI,




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