Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Jordan, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 209 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified ridge over central NOAM will continue to force a potent longwave trough into Atlantic Canada, leading to surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley maintaining meteorological order through the day today and tonight, with dry and anomalously warm conditions prevailing. A Pacific borne wave currently residing in the Canadian Rockies will crest the ridge, zipping into the upper Midwest via quick zonal WNW flow. Result will be an uptick in return flow, drawing warmer and more moist air into the Great Lakes.
Antecedent dry conditions will lead to a lack of saturation, but as a warm advection wing passes through Lake Superior, suppose there is just enough to force an isolated shower aloft as a stable layer holds beneath a budding inversion.

Forecast Details:

If you want a gem of a day to catch up on autumnal yard work, today is the day! Surface high pressure will lead to a minimal SSE flow, with partly to mostly sunny skies prevailing. Highs today top out in the mid 40s in the eastern Yoop, 47-52 across far NE lower, and 52 to 59 across the rest of the region.

As we head into tonight, dry conditions continue to prevail, but an increase in mid level cloud along with an increasingly pinched pressure gradient drumming up SSE return flow, anticipating an anomalously mild night across the region, especially across NW lower. Some early decoupling may lead to an evening dip in temperatures across NE lower and eastern Yoop (could see temps fall to the 33 to 37 range, especially inland)... but otherwise, sure looks like a lot of the CWA settles in the upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere (warmest west of US 131 in NW lower). As far as rain shower chances go, anticipating that anywhere from 95 to 99% of the APX footprint holds dry. Only hiccup may be a light shower across Chippewa County (esp. closer to Lake Superior) as a WAA wing traverses Lake Superior. Soundings look unimpressive, but do showcase some elevated lift and saturation. Not anticipating much out of any showers that manage to form... ample dry layer in the low levels likely hampers any precip as it falls, so will roll with slight chance PoPs along and north of M-28, and dry elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 209 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Aforementioned shortwave trough digging into the Upper Midwest traverses the region Saturday, forcing a cold front through the region later in the day. This system, while Pacific borne, will be moderated considerably by drier air stretching from Alberta to the Great Lakes, limiting its potential for appreciable precipitation. Anticipating limited instability with this passage as well... so will likely see a narrow band of shallow convection pretty much right along the front as it passes from W to E through the late morning into the afternoon. Better forcing will confine the more prevalent rains across eastern upper. Nonetheless, this moisture starved system will serve as nothing much more than a feature to crank up the winds and eventually return a much more seasonable airmass. Would not be surprised to see highs Saturday near daily records (low-to-mid 60s), but not expecting those to fall as highs generally settle 54 to 64 degrees. Most spots in northern lower probably see 0.10" or less of rain, with the eastern Yoop cashing in on 0.10-0.25" of rain.

In the wake of this system, sharply cooler NW flow builds into the region, which should lead to temperatures returning back into the 30s to near 40 Sunday into Monday, as this feature digs into New England and again leads to us positioning ourselves on the periphery of a longwave troughing over eastern NOAM. Colder air aloft will lead to lake effect snow potential, though it should be noted that synoptic moisture leaves much to be desires. As a result, anticipating the return of lake effect snows as overlake instability builds Sunday and Monday... the issue is that with meager moisture, there may not be enough to give the lake effect snowfall its usual kick that it brings... so anticipating minor accumulations at best across the NW lower snowbelts... though better moisture may lead to higher amounts in any bands across the eastern Yoop... but still rather minor (ceiling amounts for this would be 2-4" in any dominant banding) Sunday into Monday. in addition to lake effect potential, it will be quite breezy Sunday, with frequent 30 to 40mph gusts possible, particularly in areas near the lakeshores north of M-72, which should add a biting chill to this colder air intrusion.

Beyond this, the pattern relaxes as northern Michigan holds in the neutral point of the pattern... sandwiched between the departing longwave trough, and the next wave set to cut through the Corn Belt / northern Ohio Valley / lower Great Lakes... likely leaving the region in a seasonably cool and somewhat drier regime to close out next week... with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows in the 20s and lower 30s. Will have to watch a southern stream wave toward the very end of the forecast period that may make a run at the Great Lakes from the southwest, but details and timing of this feature remain quite murky at this juncture.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1242 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue across northern Michigan through tonight. Mainly light south-southeast winds will become increasingly gusty late tonight, eventually turning to west- northwest with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts by Saturday afternoon as a cold front swings through. Flight conditions are also expected to deteriorate quickly with the arrival of the front, dropping CIGs across many areas to IFR/LIFR through the morning hours. Also accompanying the front will be the return of light rain chances late in the issuance period, perhaps resulting in brief drops in VSBY prior to 18Z Saturday -- most likely at CIU and PLN.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for LHZ345>349.
Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for LSZ321-322.