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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 249 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain and snow likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 012300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 600 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Generally minor snow accumulations south of M-72 with higher likelihood near/south of M-55.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level trough axis sits atop the Intermountain West early this afternoon. Ridging positioned off the West Coast with general bagginess to upper-level heights across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS and eastern Canada. Embedded mid- level shortwave currently crossing the southern Lakes this afternoon is quickly outrunning the attendant surface response (currently centered near St. Louis). Low pressure will continue to steadily slowly weaken as it crosses near Toledo later tonight and eventually situates near Toronto Saturday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow chances and accumulation through tonight, mainly south of M-72.

Precip shield has been limited to southern and central Michigan thus far today given weak, albeit focused, fgen forcing. Slow northward progress has been observed over the last several hours, although slowed considerably by high pressure centered just to our north and a dry northeast wind locally. Initial snow (mixed with rain in spots) is making its way into Gladwin/Arenac counties currently based on latest webcam imagery and obs across Isabella/Midland counties. Continued slow northward progression towards the M-55 corridor through the remainder of the daylight hours with snow continuing to slowly expand during the overnight hours -- again some rain mixing in remains possible, especially near Saginaw Bay. Some uncertainty prevails with just how far north the northern edge of lighter precip reaches. Latest hi-res trends suggest that's as far north as between M-72 and M-32 after midnight. Regardless, the best chances for 1"+ of snow remains near/south of M-72...with the highest probabilities focused from Missaukee/Roscommon/Ogemaw counties into mid- Michigan where 2"+ amounts aren't out of the question. Lower probabilities of minor snow accums overnight up to the M-32 corridor. Any snow that does accumulate will be of the wetter variety and likely to result in some pockets of slick travel overnight into Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow Sunday, potentially leading to slippery travel in some areas to wrap up the weekend.

Pattern Forecast: By Saturday morning, weakening low pressure is expected to be positioned off to our southeast under low amplitude mid-level ridging in advance of longwave troughing upstream lee of the Rockies. This troughing is expected to slide east across the nation's midsection through the weekend with energy over the central Plains late Saturday aiding to develop low pressure that's expected to track across the mid-MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes late Saturday night through Sunday. This system will be the focus of the short-term forecast period...potentially bringing the next round of widespread precipitation to northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Lingering drizzle/light snow showers possible Saturday, mainly near Lake Huron. More widespread precipitation arriving late Saturday night through Sunday.

The vast majority, if not all, synoptic precip is expected to be off to our east by Saturday morning. While the bulk of northern Michigan should experience a dry day with some peeks of sunshine, patchy drizzle or flurries may linger near Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay given low- level moisture stuck under a 875 mb inversion and a marginally supportive over-water thermal gradient.

Focus quickly transitions to late Saturday night through Sunday, and while there remains some uncertainty with the track of strength of this system, current confidence lies in the next batch of precip spreading southwest to northeast across the Northwoods. Thermal profiles continue to be supportive of mainly snow across much of northern Michigan during the day Sunday, although a rain/snow mix or even all rain appears most likely near Saginaw Bay given a deeper near-surface warm layer. Latest probabilistic guidance continues to hint at this not being an overly impressive event with chances for 2"+ of accumulation maximized over the higher terrain at 30-40%. Sub 15% probs for greater than 4". Lower chances for these accumulation thresholds in the collar counties of the Great Lakes and across the eastern U.P. Latest trends support this being a wetter variety snow with SLRs somewhere in the 9-12:1 range, so while it may not rise to true winter weather advisory criteria, some slick/greasy roads remain a distinct possibility to wrap up the weekend.

The bulk of synoptic support exits stage right Sunday evening/ overnight, although lingering wrap around low-level moisture with weak lake support may prove to be enough to continue light snow showers/drizzle/freezing drizzle chances with the moisture depth struggling to reach -8 to -10 C.

High temperatures through the forecast period generally in the low- mid 30s with lows ranging from the upper teens to mid-20s.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Longwave troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS to start the long term forecast period. Embedded shortwave over the northern Plains is expected to dive southeast towards the Great Lakes Monday night - Tuesday. Confidence diminishes for the second half of the period, although pattern recognition would support a relatively active pattern continuing across the nation's midsection.

Primary focus for next week revolves around snow potential Monday night - Tuesday. Current confidence lies in a solution that brings a clipper system across the upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes with potential for at least minor snow accumulations across portions of northern Michigan.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Low pressure currently centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will lift NE tonight...reaching Lake Erie by 12Z Saturday and then continuing NE into New England thru Saturday night. Northern edge of the moisture shield associated with this system will reach areas along and south of a line from TVC to APN...providing a chance of light snow to these areas thru tonight
Meanwhile
high pressure centered from the Upper Mississippi Valley thru Lake Superior into SE Ontario will slowly build into Wisconsin and Michigan over the next 24 hours. Overall conditions will remain low VFR/MVFR at all Northern Michigan TAF sites thru the forecast period. Surface winds will remain from the NW under 10 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Sub-advisory winds/waves continue across much of northern Michigan through the upcoming weekend. The only possible blemish to this comes late tonight into Saturday where sporadic low-end advisory gusts are possible on portions of Lake Huron -- primarily south of Sturgeon Point Light.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LHZ349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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