Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Jordan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 4:52PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:42 AM EST (05:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:17PMMoonset 4:03AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1029 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.gale warning in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201912081130;;018576 FZUS53 KAPX 080329 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1029 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-081130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan city, MI
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location: 45.14, -85.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 080448 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1148 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 936 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Warm advection continuing to ramp up, well in advance of a cold front marching into northern MN. This air is not only warmer but relatively dry, and lower clouds have been rapidly eroding from s to n this evening. 00Z APX sounding has an 850mb dew pt depression of circa 25C.

Several small pieces of energy aloft are racing quickly across Superior. This is interacting with the warm advection to produce light precip over parts of Superior and adjoining Ontario. However, as you head south you are starting to battle that drier low-level air. The majority of the radar echoes seen over the east half of upper MI right now are virga. However, not impossible for a few raindrops or snowflakes to make it to the ground where returns are better.

So no major changes are planned to the forecast. Small chance for snow or mixed rain/snow showers in eastern upper MI (especially Chippewa Co) for the next several hours. This exits to the east before the late overnight hours, with a lull in precip chances before the cold front reaches eastern upper MI on Sunday.

Temps will be steady to slowly rising for the rest of the night.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

. Mainly quiet weather tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude upper level ridging across the central CONUS continues to build into the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Surface high pressure is centered across Ohio with SW flow increasing across northern Michigan and warmer air making inroads into the region. Very light southerly flow lake effect clouds and probably some light snow showers continue to stream off Lake Michigan into eastern Upper Michigan, and there is some lake clouds skirting the Lake Michigan shoreline areas as well. Otherwise, it's been a mixed sky kinda day. We lost quite a bit of the lower cloud cover earlier in the day, but we've seen redevelopment of lower stratocu this afternoon, probably aided by daytime heating such as it is. Thicker mid and high cloud cover is also streaming through a portion of the northern Lower Michigan and even another pocket of mid level radar returns south of M-72.

Upstream, another round of warm advection forced enhanced cloud cover is sliding out of the northern Plains toward the western Great Lakes ahead of surface low pressure over south-central Canada. A thin corridor of radar returns are sliding through the arrowhead of Minnesota into western Lake Superior although no observations are showing any precip.

Tonight: Surface low pressure and attending cold front will slide across Ontario while S/SW flow continues to increase ahead of the front, driving substantially warmer air aloft up into northern Michigan. Strongest warm advection forcing for ascent is still looking to slide across the northern lakes region, Lake Superior and the U.P. where a little bit of light snow will be possible. Further south, with surge of warmer and drier air into the region, lower cloud cover will probably get scoured out one again, although there will be a fair amount of mid and high clouds around. Call it partly to mostly cloudy. With increasing surface winds, temperatures will drop off some this evening before leveling out or even increasing overnight.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

High impact weather potential: Wintry mix of ice, snow, and rain Monday with lake effect/enhanced snow behind the departing system Tuesday.

High pressure centered over the eastern U.S. seaboard will depart to the east and make way for a weak cold front associated with a low pressure system over Hudson Bay Sunday afternoon/night. At the same time a developing low pressure system over the central Plains will usher in "warmer" temperatures on southwesterly winds. This will produce chances of rain showers throughout the day Sunday and then turn to a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow after sunset as temperatures begin to fall. This mix will last much into Monday as temperatures vary greatly from north to south . with eastern upper only reaching into the mid 20s, while the southern part of the forecast area will see highs in the upper 30s to near 40. This will be tricky to pinpoint the exact areas of p-types . and will most likely be a scenario where the forecast changes throughout the day. As the storm departs to the east and winds filter in cold air on northwesterly winds . the entire forecast area will switch to only snow. This lake effect snow may be enhanced at times early on as lingering deeper synoptic moisture remains. Gusty (30-35 mph) southwesterly winds will diminish in intensity and possibly become light and variable as the center of the low pressure system treks over northern Michigan late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Winds once again pick up in intensity (but not nearly as high as Sunday) as the system departs Tuesday morning . with gusts as high as 25 mph. Temperatures Sunday will be in the upper 30s, decrease throughout the day Monday, and only reach into the teens to low 20s during the day Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the single digits to teens above zero Monday night.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

CAA continuing through Tuesday night, with 850mb temperatures dropping to near -20C . this, along with ample moisture will generate lake effect snow through Wednesday evening. High pressure is then progged to build into the Great Lakes region from the northern Plains. This drier air will give the forecast area a reprive from precipitation the end the work week before another weak disturbance moves in from the west and renews chances of light snow to begin the weekend Temperatures will be cold. only reaching into the teens above zero Wednesday, but moderating a bit each day to the low 30s by Friday. Lows will be near 0-10 degrees above zero Tuesday and Wednesday night as cold air advection continues it's assault on the forecast area and warm a bit each night thereafter . to near 20 by Friday night.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1148 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Sw low-level winds are bringing somewhat warmer air to the region. Best chance for precip during the TAF period will be over upper MI and points north, as a cold front eases into upper MI on Sunday. So not expecting much of anything at the TAF sites. MVFR cigs have been pushed north of the area this evening. VFR should continue overnight and Sunday morning. MVFR cigs will likely return Sunday afternoon.

Gusty s to sw winds, diminishing toward Sunday evening. LLWS overnight and early Sunday.

MARINE. Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Increasing south to southwest flow tonight will result in gale force gusts on the Lake Michigan nearshore areas and small craft advisories elsewhere. Gusts may get close to gale force on Lake Huron. But with largely offshore winds, gale gusts are more likely in the open waters. Winds gradually diminish on Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 5 PM EST Sunday for MIZ095-096. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349. LM . GALE WARNING until 5 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi43 min S 9.9 G 22 36°F 1017.3 hPa (-2.7)
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi61 min S 11 G 15 33°F 36°F1016.4 hPa
WSLM4 49 mi43 min S 19 35°F 38°F1015.7 hPa (-2.6)27°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI11 mi48 minS 810.00 miOvercast33°F23°F69%1018.3 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi48 minS 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast33°F23°F69%1016.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI22 mi48 minS 510.00 miOvercast33°F23°F67%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACB

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS4S4S3S5S3S4S8S8S7S9S6
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NW5
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2 days agoNW9
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NW5NW3NW3CalmNW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW3S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.