Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 10:00 PM   Moonset 6:07 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1100 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Today - Light winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Southeast wind 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 251501 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1101 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather continues today and tonight.

- Dry conditions continue this Friday before showers and thunderstorms move in late.

- Showers and storms continue at times through the weekend into Monday -- including potential for severe storms on Saturday.

UPDATE
Issued at 1101 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Ridge axis to our west this morning...with low-level high pressure in place largely overhead...though core of the surface high is just to our east in Ontario. Bit of PV dropping through the UP this morning, and additional niblets upstream over the central Plains...with some high clouds slipping across SW Lower MI this morning. Very quiet over the region this morning amid this setup
with light southeasterly flow at most sites
and dewpoints in the teens to 20s; temps rebounding into the upper 30s to lower 40s this morning following a chilly night with record lows tied at a few of our climate sites.

Expecting a warmer day today, with highs in the 50s. Light wind profile supports lake breeze development through the remainder of the day. Return flow begins to creep in late today into tonight, which, combined with highs in the 50s, should support a warmer night tonight compared to last night...though freezing temps should remain a concern for many, especially inland
Otherwise
primary issue for the forecast period will be how close to elevated fire danger we get on Friday...and will be taking a more thorough look at things going forward...but initial thoughts have pressure gradient tightening with time Friday afternoon, which would suggest that the better chance of hitting wind criteria would be in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing continues to pivot from the northeast CONUS over the Atlantic today as longwave ridging slides eastward over the Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Subsidence aloft provided at the inflection point of these features will keep building surface high pressure currently centered overhead gradually eastward today into tonight. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough looks to eject over the southern Great Plains later this evening and tonight, providing ample divergence aloft to support lee cyclogenesis over western Kansas/Nebraska.

Forecast Details:

Quiet weather continues today and tonight -- Cold temperatures this morning will quickly warm up after sunrise with cloud-free skies in store through today and tonight. Highs across the area look to climb into the low to mid 50s for most of northern Michigan, aside from those against the lakeshores that may stay in the upper 40s.
Light/calm winds are also anticipated today with lake breezes pushing inland this afternoon and evening. Southeast winds look to gradually strengthen beginning late tonight into Friday morning with overnight lows dipping back into the upper 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the central CONUS will breifly bring a warmer air mass with surface high pressure to the Great Lakes region this Friday. Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the Pacific near southern California will progress across the country and return a more active weather pattern at the start of the weekend.

Aforementioned troughing will be centered over the Central Plains at the start of the forecast period. The trough and surface based low pressure will slowly move across the midwest this weekend into early next week, while simultaneously weakening, delivering rounds of thunderstorms and showers through Monday before a more zonal flow pattern takes over by next Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Dry conditions continue this Friday before showers and thunderstorms move in late: Friday starts off dry. High pressure continues to deliver one more day of pleasant weather before a weakening cold front delivers precipitation to parts of the CWA as soon as Friday night. Rainfall will need to saturate the environment from a top down method, so overcoming dry air can delay measurable precipitation until the 12Z timeframe.
Aforementioned low pressure will be weakening as it moves across the Upper Midwest, keeping rainfall pretty low, but CAPE values in the 1500-1800 range and SRH values approaching the 300s will keep the potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon/evening a real possibility. SPC has upgraded the northern lower penisula to a slight risk of severe weather and WPC keeps Michigan under no risk of excessive rainfall, but a general quarter to half inch can be expected through Saturday.

Precipitation will continues at times through the weekend into Monday: Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms will persist this weekend as the first trough diminishes and is quickly replaced by another. Showers and storms will continue across the Great Lakes region through Monday. Quiet weather will settle into the region for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as a more zonal flow pattern over the CONUS returns surface high pressure to the CWA for the end of April.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the issuance period with sunny/clear skies in place. Weak/calm winds are also anticipated for most of the period, with the only caveat being lake breeze formation pushing inland from all lakeshore areas during the afternoon and evening tomorrow.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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