Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Jordan, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 17Z mesoanalysis shows a narrow ridge of high pressure extending from the Ohio Valley northward through Lake Superior. Cold/occluded front runs from Minnesota into eastern Iowa...triple point near the Twin Cities and a stub of a warm front across southwest Wisconsin/northern Illinois. Good deal of sun early this afternoon across northern Michigan though mid clouds and some light radar returns making their way across Lake Michigan. Some scattered convection over southeast Wisconsin heading into southwest Lower.

Low amplitude/mainly zonal flow pattern across the CONUS this afternoon...with an elongated latent PV anomaly that extends from Montana east across the upper Great Lakes with several embedded vorticity centers. Cold/occluded front across the upper Midwest expected to dissipate for the most part but there are hints of a boundary laying out across southern Lower Michigan for Wednesday.
Another cold front will develop across the Midwest and lean into the upper Lakes later Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Some light shower chances tonight...perhaps Wednesday afternoon as well?: Probably not much for sure as low levels are expected to remain dry...and better instability along low level theta-e ridge poking northeast from the Central Plains looks to be focused across southern Lower Michigan tonight. Band of mid level moisture is relatively shallow as well. Akin to last night expect clouds to clear from west to east during the overnight hours...though some may still be lingering across far eastern Upper/northeast Lower Michigan tomorrow morning.

Wednesday will start out with some sun...while keeping an eye on convective activity to the west and south. During the afternoon next cold front pushing into Wisconsin/western Iowa will focus low level theta-e ridge into eastern Wisconsin. So the potential is there for some potential convective remnants to push into northern Michigan during the mid and late afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Warmer temperatures continue Thursday then after a brief pause in the upward trend Friday and Saturday, even warmer readings are possible early next week. Spring usually takes a while to get up here but that's what makes it so much sweeter when it finally sets in. Along with the spring warmth there will be various chances for showers and possible thunderstorms. A stalled out frontal boundary and weak surface low pressure system moving across the region will lead to shower chances Thursday with showers likely on Friday. Areas north of this front, mainly across eastern upper, will not be nearly as warm as areas to the south. The weekend still looks rain free with high pressure in control then rain chances will return early next week due to another strung out front and possible surface low moving by to the north. Depending upon the extent of actual cloud cover and convective activity, it could heat up to well into the 70s Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 106 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Clouds will thicken and lower later this afternoon and into the evening hours from west to east...but expect ceilings to remain VFR. Some sprinkles or light rain showers are expected in the 21Z-09Z time frame...again the threat ending from west to east.
Clouds are expected to clear from west to east after 06Z...with just some high clouds expected Wednesday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.