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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 959 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning...
Today..West wind 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the evening. Isolated snow showers in the late morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Scattered snow showers and isolated showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 111711 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1211 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Key Messages:

- Lingering lake effect snow this morning will bring an additional inch or two of snow to Antrim/Kalkaska counties.

- Snow squall potential early Tuesday morning with a band of snow moving across the area combined with 30-40 mph wind gusts, possibly creating rapid drops in visibility during the AM commute.

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive longwave troughing will continue to slide over the eastern half of the CONUS today as an associated elongated cyclone quickly works northeastward up the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, ridging will temporarily work overhead this afternoon/evening before a potent shortwave digs into the Great Lakes by the end of the period.

Forecast Details:

Ongoing lake effect snow -- most notably the more concentrated banding over Antrim/Kalkaska counties -- will continue over the next several hours. An additional inch or two of snow will be possible underneath this band before sunrise. As aforementioned ridging works into the region, low-level winds will begin to shift from northwesterly to southwesterly through the day, disrupting ongoing lake effect and fanning out light snow showers across portions of northwest lower and eastern upper into early this afternoon. An increasingly dry low-level airmass will also move in today, ultimately ending snow chances for a time later this afternoon and evening.

Snow chances do look to return later tonight into Tuesday morning as the shortwave punches overhead and the associated clipper passes to our north. Favorable forcing and moisture provided by this system will bring chances for at least light accumulations (less than 1")
across eastern upper and the Tip of the Mitt by 12Z Tuesday. While snowfall amounts will be unimpressive, the primary concern will be snow squall potential early Tuesday morning. Fine flakes within a band of snow swinging west to east across the area around 20-30 mph will combine with background wind gusts of 30-40 mph to bring chances for rapid drops in visibility during the morning commute.
While confidence is relatively low at this time, this potential will be monitored in future forecast cycles due to possible impacts during the morning commute along primary northern Michigan roadways -- including Mackinac Bridge/I-75. Otherwise, high temperatures in the low to mid 30s are anticipated this afternoon. Overnight lows should stay relatively mild and only look to cool into the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Moderate...accumulating lake effect snow Tuesday, along with potential band of snow with the front Tuesday morning...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

160+kt upper level jet now on the downstream side of the trough axis, stretching the length of the East Coast...with attendant BCZ stretching through the Appalachians, along with surface low pressure along the Eastern Seaboard. Southern end of the trough axis turning negatively tilted over the SE US as potent niblet plows through that region
Meanwhile
northern portion of the trough axis remains overhead as of 4z...with NW flow holding on across the Plains and Upper Midwest; lake convection ongoing over northern Michigan. Brief shortwave ridging and attendant surface high pressure across parts of Canada and the US, broken up by NW-SE oriented warm fronts stretching over Manitoba/Ontario to our north...and from the Mid MS Valley up to a potent surface low over northern Saskatchewan. This latter feature is associated with a potent vort max aloft, with strong flow through the column and some decent moisture along/ahead of this.

Current trough axis is expected to lift out today...with shortwave ridging to arrive in its wake
However
shortwave ridging will be short-lived...as that strong PV max and its attendant tightly wound surface system dive toward the Upper Great Lakes today into tonight.
Expecting strong winds with this system Tuesday morning...as a cold front plows through the area with a band of snow and strong winds (potential snow squall setup?) and attempts to stall out to our south
Flow to become WNW behind this front
with abundant cold advection supportive of good overlake instability. Signals still point strongly toward an intense snowband setting up over Chippewa County, especially north of M-28, with details to be refined as the event gets closer.

Another vort max drops into the back of the shortwave trough Wednesday morning...likely keeping the NW flow cold advection at least for a time
However
with ridging building into the central Plains through the period...think there is some potential surface high pressure will try to seep in from the south at times going into midweek...though warm advection ahead of strengthening northern stream ridging could keep things from being totally quiet, particularly over the EUP.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Burst of snow Tuesday morning followed by accumulating lake effect Tuesday afternoon...

Guidance seems pretty keen on the idea of an intense band of snow sweeping across the area with the cold front Tuesday morning...which, combined with the strong gusty winds of 30-40kts currently expected with the front, could suggest potential for a snow squall situation...making the Tuesday morning commute extra un- fun.

Otherwise...after the quick-hitting frontal snowband Tuesday morning attention will turn to WNW flow lake effect, particularly over the EUP (and particularly northern Chippewa County). This is where the best synoptic forcing (with PVA from niblets aloft) should combine with the best fetch over Lake Superior, with the greatest overlake instability over this region, deeper into the colder air aloft. While some of this should begin fairly quickly after the front Tuesday morning...think the most intense period will be Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, as additional niblets pass through the flow aloft and help reinvigorate pre-existing snowbands.
Guidance soundings show a bulk of the cloud layer in the DGZ over the EUP, with potential for the best lift to be pegged in this layer as well. This certainly suggests potential for snowfall totals to be amplified by those bigger, fluffier dendrites...and will have to see how much the strong winds (likely remaining 20-30+kts, esp.
over the EUP during the day) are able to break up the dendrites, though I doubt it will have all that much impact on snowfall totals.
A more pressing wind-related concern will be blowing/drifting and reduced visibilities...particularly noting some probabilistic guidance showing moderate confidence in less than 3mi visibilities at times Tuesday across Chippewa county
Additionally
with the cold air mass in place, wind chills could be in the single digits...which would not be good for anyone who gets stranded amid the band Tuesday.

Admittedly...inversion heights are not excessively high with this event (probably closer to 8kft or so, which is decent)...and moisture may not be as deep in some areas behind the front Tuesday; though for now, things look more promising for a more saturated surface-to-cloud-top layer over the EUP, per guidance soundings.
Still think we'll be keeping a close eye on Chippewa county in the coming hours for a combination of snowfall and related impacts Tuesday/Tuesday night...particularly noting that probabilistic snowfall for this 24 hr period (12z Tues-12z Wed) is still strong for this event, showing greater than a 70 percent chance for at least 4 inches of snow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Minimal for now.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Signals seem to point toward milder air trying to force its way into the area for the latter half of the week...though northern stream and southern stream ridging may end up fighting for dominance and to some degree mar potential for otherwise generally quiet weather...though for now, am keeping this idea to a minimum in the forecast
The northern stream remains quite active
with a niblet expected to zip through Canada Thursday/Thursday night...though whether this ends up far enough south to have an influence on our weather is somewhat unclear attm
Either way
looking like another potent blob may try to dive out of NW Canada for late week/the weekend...which bears watching, noting this could have potential to produce a strong northern stream surface low over Canada, that could also impact our area. Timing/position of this feature remains uncertain...and will also have to keep an eye on how a southern stream trough evolves late in the week into this weekend. For now
guidance keeps these two separate
with potential for a decent southern stream system to develop as well, perhaps over the southeast US. It'll be something to keep an eye on going forward, at the very least, to see how this idea evolves over the next couple days' worth of model runs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Scattered lake effect snow showers will continue to diminish through this afternoon as winds shift more west-southwesterly. Those winds strengthen tonight with gusts as high as 25-35 kts overnight into early Tuesday. Primarily MVFR CIGs expected to continue, although some generally brief lifts to VFR possible.

MARINE
Current northwest winds will gradually turn to southwest winds today, strengthening this afternoon into this evening. Small craft advisory conditions are anticipated over all northern Great Lakes nearshore waters by tonight. Gale force wind gusts are expected over northern Lake Michigan nearshore waters for a time tonight into early Tuesday morning. Isolated gale force wind gusts cannot be ruled out over other nearshore waters. Advisory conditions look to continue over the nearshores Tuesday into Tuesday night with the potential for gales over Whitefish Bay during the day on Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345-346.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Tuesday night for LHZ347-348.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for LHZ349.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Tuesday night for LSZ321-322.

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