Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Jordan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 5:31PM Saturday January 25, 2020 3:31 PM EST (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:53AMMoonset 6:25PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 326 Pm Est Sat Jan 25 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Sunday evening...
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Patchy fog through the night. Chance of drizzle early in the evening. Slight chance of snow showers through the night. Drizzle likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain showers, snow showers likely and a chance of drizzle. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202001260430;;507432 FZUS53 KAPX 252026 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 326 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-260430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan city, MI
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location: 45.14, -85.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 252015 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 315 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

. Light wintry mix of precipitation tonight .

High impact weather potential: Nothing too significant tonight . although may see a glaze of ice accumulation in periods of freezing drizzle.

Pattern synopsis: Upper level low pressure continues to make slow northeast progress across southeast lower Michigan this afternoon . with its attendant and much less impressive surface reflection located vicinity Sault Ste Marie. Deeper moisture rotating back west on north side of upper level low is kicking off a fairly widespread area of drizzle and light rain, even mixed with snow at times, across the southeast third of our area. Otherwise, a saturated sub H8 layer below relatively dry mid levels is resulting in pockets of mist and drizzle across the remainder of the region. With all advection processes non-existent, temperatures have gone much of nowhere in the last 24 hours or so, with current readings still running in the mid and upper 30s.

Southeast Michigan upper low reaches vicinity central Lake Ontario by sunrise Sunday as its surface reflection slowly deepens on its journey into southwest Quebec. Decaying "wrap-around" Atlantic moisture plume and development of weak cold air advection will continue to result in a light wintry mix of precipitation tonight (into Sunday as well) across the Northwoods.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing light wintry precipitation and attendant hazardous driving potential.

Details: Not expecting a whole lot to change heading through this evening with plenty of low clouds and areas of drizzle/light snow continuing with passing areas of deeper moisture. Development of weak cold air advection and return of somewhat better moisture through the column should theoretically support more bonafide precipitation chances later tonight (turning more to snow . with minimal accumulations). Per hi-res guidance soundings, still definitely have some concern for loss of ice nucleation at times, at least continuing the threat for drizzle. Temperatures expected to drop near to a bit below freezing by later tonight across most areas, raising concern for patchy freezing drizzle and some attendant hazardous driving conditions. Not overly confident on the exact details or amount of ice accretion . but definitely enough of a concern to warrant a mention in our latest hazardous weather products.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Lake effect snow Sunday, possible drizzle mixed in .

Pattern Synopsis:

The period begins with the vertically stacked system currently overhead departing the Great Lakes into Quebec. A subtle shortwave/speed max could rotate around the upper-level low into the area on Sunday. Weak, somewhat transient ridging enters Monday ahead of a second shortwave moving across northern Michigan Monday night. At the surface, high pressure across central Canada builds into the Great Plains on Monday. This will help create NW surface flow across the area between the two systems.

Forecast/Details:

Sunday: Ongoing precipitation is expected Sunday morning across much of the area with wrap around moisture from the system centered to the east. This will likely be falling as snow with some drizzle mixed in. With mainly NW/WNW flow expected on the backside of the cyclone, this precipitation will likely see some lake enhancement with the fetch across Lake Superior/Lake Michigan and potentially transition fully to lake effect precipitation by Sunday afternoon. Ascent aloft could provide additional support with the previously mentioned shortwave moving across Michigan during the day.

Forecast soundings show inversion heights of the saturated near- surface layer just short of 850mb/1km at -8 C. However, the profile is saturated well past this up to 3km with the aforementioned synoptic help, along with a portion of this layer being colder than - 10 C. This could allow ice crystals formed above the inversion to help seed snow production near the surface to fuel lake effect snow. Large flakes/dendrites aren't particularly favored as forcing largely rests outside of the DGZ, but warmer temps near the surface could allow for more aggregation of flakes. Additionally, drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible at times where more marginal moisture lies. Nonetheless, an area of near 3" of snowfall is possible across NW lower with more widespread lighter amounts elsewhere. More northerly winds come Sunday night, shifting the focus of potential lake effect precipitation. Favorable moisture and subsidence aloft also departs as ridging moves in, likely ending snow/drizzle/freezing drizzle Sunday overnight.

Monday night: The majority of Monday appears quiet as near-surface moisture is at a premium. However, sufficient moisture to support additional lake effect snow/freezing drizzle chances arrives by Monday night. Water temperatures across northern Lake Michigan are anticipated to remain near 5 C into the beginning of the week at the least, which will help instability/forcing. Winds are expected to be relatively weak, but uniform from the NW and should remain long enough to induce lake effect snow/freezing drizzle.

Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday are expected to be near freezing with slightly higher numbers closer to the lakes. overnight lows will be in the low to mid 20s for most.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

A mostly quiet work week is expected across the area as no major systems are anticipated to impact the Great Lakes. A subtle shortwave looks move overhead Tuesday, aiding northwest flow to continue aforementioned lake effect snow into the day given ample moisture is in place. Some freezing drizzle could be possible if cloud ice struggles to form. Otherwise, surface high pressure sets in across a fairly large swath of the continent from central Canada/Hudson Bay down into the Great Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley through a large portion of the forecast period. Chances for precipitation later in the week will become more clear with time, but this surface pattern should largely mute rain/snow chances. Little change is expected in temperatures across northern Michigan during the period as highs hover around the freezing mark heading into the following weekend, which is about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1259 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Really, just more of the same with mostly IFR conditions under very low clouds and reduced visibilities in fog/mist/drizzle . and even some overnight and Sunday morning light snow. Not expecting much in terms of snowfall, with just trace amounts expected. Light winds through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 314 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Light winds into this evening will increasing in speed overnight as they become northwest behind departing low pressure. Northwest winds, at times gusty, will continue through Sunday . slowly diminishing Sunday night. Small craft advisory conditions expected later tonight into Sunday for at least some of our nearshore waters.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi51 min W 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 1008.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi49 min WSW 4.1 G 6 36°F 33°F1006.9 hPa35°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI11 mi35 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F33°F84%1007.4 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi36 minW 310.00 miOvercast37°F32°F83%1007.1 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI22 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F35°F100%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACB

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5NE4NE5NE5E6NE6NE4E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE4NE7NE6NE6NE7E5E4
2 days agoS5S4S3S5S6S6S5S5S4S4CalmS3S3S3S4S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.