Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 9:10 PM Moonrise 3:17 PM   Moonset 2:59 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 344 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - South wind 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming variable 10 knots or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 181941 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 341 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm for a few more days.

- Chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight.

- Chances for showers and storms Monday through Wednesday with the potential for stronger storms Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Pattern/Synopsis: 995mb low pressure is north of Winnipeg, lifting northward. An associated cold front curves to the se and s, pushing out of MN and into WI. Warm advection ahead of the front is stronger w of Lake MI than here on our side. This front will cross northern MI overnight into Sunday morning.

Forecast: A warm day across most of the area. GLR hit 80f at 2pm, the first 80 since October of last year. Se winds off of Lk Huron is maintaining cooler readings near that lake, on up into eastern upper MI. Also plenty of stratus/fog in the marine layer on Lk Huron, right up to our coastlines. Some cu inland over ne lower MI, otherwise little cloud cover and no precip.
There are some showers ahead of the front in parts of WI and western upper MI.

A narrow axis of MlCape values around 1500j/kg is upstream, just ahead of the front. Strong/svr storms could fire there, and SPC has a slight svr risk. But we have a lot less instability here, and an unfavorable overnight fropa as for timing. And with the system lifting northward, the trailing front is getting increasingly strung out, with weakening low-level convergence.
Precip chances in this forecast area are highest in eastern upper MI, from very late evening onward. Smaller pops for northern lower MI, all after midnight. Chance for thunder will be present, but this elevated and weakening convection should not be severe. Expect precip to entirely depart or dissipate by 8am. Some fog will get left behind, especially in eastern upper MI and near Lk Huron.

Min temps in the 50s.

Sunday: Fog/stratus will potentially be an issue to start the day in the north and east. Weak cool/dry advection and light nw winds is found across the area by late morning. Should have no trouble transitioning to abundant sunshine again, which will more than counter that cold advection. An axis of instability will develop downstate as the front lays over, but this is increasingly likely to remain south of our area. Have removed chances for precip in se areas Sunday afternoon.

For fire wx interests: some very low RH values are possible tomorrow. Using favored NBM10% guidance take after dew points down to the lower 30s, and RHs in the vicinity of 20% across much of the area. Nw post-frontal winds should remain light, and thus will not advertise elevated fire danger at this time. But it was considered.

Max temps from low 70s far north (ANJ) to mid 80s far se (Gladwin/W Branch).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Unsettled conditions expected to start off next week as a cold front stalls and becomes stationary downstate. A trough and its associated surface low is projected to track into the Midwest resulting in a slug of moisture being brought into the area for Monday/ Tuesday, leading to rain chances and possible embedded thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be warmer to start off next week with daytime highs in the 70s/ 80s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for mid-week next week (50s/ 60s).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Chances for showers and storms Monday through Wednesday with the potential for stronger storms Tuesday night: A digging trough and its associated surface low will bring ample moisture into the region and will work in contingent with a stationary frontal boundary that is expected to be shoved northward into Northern Michigan through Monday to produce rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. Guidance continues to hone in on a wave of energy that will track through the region Monday night into early Tuesday, which could present the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Attention then quickly turns to a potential surface low passing into the vicinity of western Lake Superior and a cold frontal passage with decent forcing present. It is still too far out to make any definitive conclusions about this set-up, but this is definitely something to watch as it has the potential to create strong thunderstorms, especially Tuesday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A weakening cold front will advance into the are tonight.
Sct showers and perhaps an embedded TSRA will accompany this.
Some fog/stratus likely to return late overnight CIU/PLN/APN, though we aren't expecting things to be as soupy as this morning. Otherwise VFR.

Onshore lake breezes this afternoon. Light winds tonight, a bit of a nw breeze Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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