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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1058 Pm Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Rest of the night..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..NW wind 5 to 10 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Monday night..W wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tuesday..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 040409 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1009 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM
Tonight and Monday Issued at 236 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Key Messages:

- Light snow will come to an end late this afternoon or early this evening.

- Temperatures falling well below freezing could cause roads to become icy tonight.

Forecast Discussion:

The low pressure system and upper level system will continue to move away from the area tonight. The accumulating snow will come to an end across eastern Wisconsin late this afternoon or early this evening. Will let the Winter Weather Advisory expire for Oconto County as the best accumulating snow will be east of them.
Decided to keep the Winter Weather Advisory going for Door County as it will continue to snow for a few more hours and temperatures across the northern portion of the county had already dropped below freezing. Think there could be a light coating of snow on roadways.

Later tonight, temperatures are expected to drop well below freezing leading to the potential for icy roads for the Monday morning commute. Will highlight this scenario with a Special Weather Statement. Did not stray far from guidance for lows tonight. Leaned toward the cooler guidance for highs across central and north-central Wisconsin where more clouds are expected, and a blend of the cooler MET and warmer MAV guidance across eastern Wisconsin where there should be a little more sunshine.

LONG TERM
Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 236 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Key Messages:

- A Clipper system may bring a dusting to an inch of snow to central Wisconsin Monday night.

- Mild and dry weather expected for most of the week.

Medium range models depict a mild week ahead with high upper heights and little chance of significant precipitation. An Alberta Clipper my bring a light snowfall to central Wisconsin Monday night as it passes by to our southwest, but then an upper ridge approaches from the Plains during the middle of the week and brings mild, dry weather.

It now appears that shortwaves moving through the Polar and Subtropical jet streams late in the week will be too far apart to phase and produce a significant synoptic scale weather system that would bring rain or snow to Wisconsin. There could be a system moving across the Ohio Valley which would be too far south to affect Wisconsin.

While there doesn't appear to be much opportunity for natural snow for the rest of this week, it will be cold enough at night for snowmaking on ski hills.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 958 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Widely varying conditions were observed across the region late this evening, with a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings, and patchy fog developing wherever partial clearing had occurred. As a result, lower than average forecast confidence is expected for the overnight period. In general, expect VFR conditions and partial clearing over northeast WI during the TAF period, with MVFR conditions more prevalent farther west. Patchy fog may result in brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions in NC WI overnight into Monday morning.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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