Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ephraim, WI
March 29, 2024 12:07 AM CDT (05:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 7:17 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 8:11 AM |
LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1111 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 28 2024
Rest of the night - NW wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 2 ft or less.
Friday - NW wind 5 to 10 kts backing se in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Friday night - SE wind 5 to 10 kts backing E 10 to 20 kts after midnight. Light rain showers likely and a chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday - NE wind 10 to 20 kts backing N 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon. Light rain and snow showers likely in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ500
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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 290342 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1042 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Moderating temperatures expected tomorrow, with highs returning to above normal.
- A fast moving system will bring a wintry mix to the forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning. Confidence continues to increase with the potential for frozen precip with minor ice and snow accumulations across central and northern WI.
- An unsettled pattern will bring multiple chances for wintry precip from late this weekend through midweek next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Friday
A weak surface trough and broad thermal trough was producing SCT-BKN stratocumulus across far northeast WI this afternoon.
These clouds have been gradually eroding through the afternoon.
Blustery conditions were occurring, with west winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures were below normal, in the 30s and lower 40s.
A ridge of high pressure to our west will move into the forecast area tonight, resulting in clear skies and light and variable winds. Trended toward the cooler side of guidance, especially over far north central WI, where a few inches of snow cover remain.
Could see a few places in NC WI approach 10 degrees, but most of the forecast area should reside in the 15-25 degree range for lows.
High pressure will shift east during the day on Friday, with surface winds becoming E-SE during the afternoon. Abundant sunshine is expected for most of the day, though high level clouds will be thickening during the afternoon. Sunshine and H8 WAA will allow temperatures to climb into the middle 40s to lower 50s, though onshore winds will keep readings cooler near Lake Michigan.
Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday
The main highlights from this forecast period revolve around two chances for precipitation, the first being late Friday night through Saturday morning, and the second being late Sunday through midweek next week.
Friday night through Saturday...As a surface low tracks east from IA to Lower MI during this period, a mid-level trough will track east across northern MN and southern Ontario. As a result, the forecast area will see chances for precipitation from both features from late Friday evening through Saturday morning. The main forecast challenge with this precip potential is p-type, and more specifically, how far north the warm layer will lift and when p-type transitions will occur. WAA will increase across the state ahead of these two pieces of energy, leaving an elevated warm layer over the region. The latest ensembles have a consensus with the warm layer lifting slightly further north than the previous forecast. Anticipate the precip to begin as rain for locations south of Highway 29 late Friday evening, then gradually transition to a mix of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet as the precip lifts further north of Highway 29. A transition to snow is still anticipated as the surface low shifts eastward into Saturday morning, but the best snow chances should remain across far northern WI. Overall, this has resulted in the potential for ice accumulations to increase across central and north-central WI with NBM probs of 15 to 25% for 0.10" of ice.
Anticipate at least a light glaze developing mainly after 06z Saturday in these areas. Due to the warm layer shifting slightly further north, snow accumulations have also shifted slightly further north, with the potential for up to 1 to 2 inches along the WI/Upper MI border and a dusting across the rest of the Northwoods. The precip will end from southwest to northeast throughout Saturday morning.
Rest of the extended...An unsettled pattern looks to set up for late this weekend into next week as a zonal flow over the central CONUS looks to evolve into a southwest flow from a developing trough over the western CONUS. Models indicate a Colorado Low riding along the southwest flow into the Midwest sometime between late Sunday and Monday. This would potentially bring the next chance for precipitation to the forecast area. However, there are still timing and track differences; in fact, some models indicate the low slowing down as it reaches the Midwest. Despite the timing and track differences, models are in agreement with additional rounds of precip through midweek next week from the trailing upper-level trough/closed-low.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Good Friday will have good flying weather as a weak surface high drifts across Wisconsin. A complex low pressure system will bring some rain Friday night and early Saturday morning, with freezing rain possible north of a AUW to AIG to ESC line.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1042 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Moderating temperatures expected tomorrow, with highs returning to above normal.
- A fast moving system will bring a wintry mix to the forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning. Confidence continues to increase with the potential for frozen precip with minor ice and snow accumulations across central and northern WI.
- An unsettled pattern will bring multiple chances for wintry precip from late this weekend through midweek next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Friday
A weak surface trough and broad thermal trough was producing SCT-BKN stratocumulus across far northeast WI this afternoon.
These clouds have been gradually eroding through the afternoon.
Blustery conditions were occurring, with west winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures were below normal, in the 30s and lower 40s.
A ridge of high pressure to our west will move into the forecast area tonight, resulting in clear skies and light and variable winds. Trended toward the cooler side of guidance, especially over far north central WI, where a few inches of snow cover remain.
Could see a few places in NC WI approach 10 degrees, but most of the forecast area should reside in the 15-25 degree range for lows.
High pressure will shift east during the day on Friday, with surface winds becoming E-SE during the afternoon. Abundant sunshine is expected for most of the day, though high level clouds will be thickening during the afternoon. Sunshine and H8 WAA will allow temperatures to climb into the middle 40s to lower 50s, though onshore winds will keep readings cooler near Lake Michigan.
Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday
The main highlights from this forecast period revolve around two chances for precipitation, the first being late Friday night through Saturday morning, and the second being late Sunday through midweek next week.
Friday night through Saturday...As a surface low tracks east from IA to Lower MI during this period, a mid-level trough will track east across northern MN and southern Ontario. As a result, the forecast area will see chances for precipitation from both features from late Friday evening through Saturday morning. The main forecast challenge with this precip potential is p-type, and more specifically, how far north the warm layer will lift and when p-type transitions will occur. WAA will increase across the state ahead of these two pieces of energy, leaving an elevated warm layer over the region. The latest ensembles have a consensus with the warm layer lifting slightly further north than the previous forecast. Anticipate the precip to begin as rain for locations south of Highway 29 late Friday evening, then gradually transition to a mix of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet as the precip lifts further north of Highway 29. A transition to snow is still anticipated as the surface low shifts eastward into Saturday morning, but the best snow chances should remain across far northern WI. Overall, this has resulted in the potential for ice accumulations to increase across central and north-central WI with NBM probs of 15 to 25% for 0.10" of ice.
Anticipate at least a light glaze developing mainly after 06z Saturday in these areas. Due to the warm layer shifting slightly further north, snow accumulations have also shifted slightly further north, with the potential for up to 1 to 2 inches along the WI/Upper MI border and a dusting across the rest of the Northwoods. The precip will end from southwest to northeast throughout Saturday morning.
Rest of the extended...An unsettled pattern looks to set up for late this weekend into next week as a zonal flow over the central CONUS looks to evolve into a southwest flow from a developing trough over the western CONUS. Models indicate a Colorado Low riding along the southwest flow into the Midwest sometime between late Sunday and Monday. This would potentially bring the next chance for precipitation to the forecast area. However, there are still timing and track differences; in fact, some models indicate the low slowing down as it reaches the Midwest. Despite the timing and track differences, models are in agreement with additional rounds of precip through midweek next week from the trailing upper-level trough/closed-low.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Good Friday will have good flying weather as a weak surface high drifts across Wisconsin. A complex low pressure system will bring some rain Friday night and early Saturday morning, with freezing rain possible north of a AUW to AIG to ESC line.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 10 mi | 28 min | NW 8.9G | 33°F | ||||
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 14 mi | 68 min | N 7G | 30.04 | ||||
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 22 mi | 50 min | WSW 8G | 33°F | 39°F | 29.99 | 19°F | |
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI | 42 mi | 28 min | NE 1.9G | 28°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KMNM MENOMINEE RGNL,MI | 24 sm | 10 min | NW 04 | 9 sm | Clear | 30°F | 19°F | 64% | 30.05 |
Green Bay, WI,
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