Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pacific City, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 4:32PM Sunday December 8, 2019 11:56 PM PST (07:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:55PMMoonset 3:46AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 228 Pm Pst Sun Dec 8 2019
Tonight..SE wind to 5 kt. Wind waves E 1 ft at 4 seconds. SWell sw 5 ft at 10 seconds. SEcondary swell nw 5 ft at 11 seconds, shifting to the nw 6 ft at 15 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon night..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of rain.
Tue..S wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 9 ft. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 12 ft. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 15 ft.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 15 ft.
PZZ200 228 Pm Pst Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres over the offshore waters will shift inland over the pac nw by early Mon. A series of weakening fronts will reach the waters through at least mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pacific City, OR
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location: 45.17, -123.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 090430 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . Update National Weather Service Portland OR 829 PM PST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. This weeks weather resembles a dishwasher, with alternating wet and dry cycles. Dry on Mon, then a front brings precipitation across region on Tue. Brief break Tue night into Wed, then another front will bring more rain and mountains snow to the region later Wed and Thu. The unsettled weather continuing into next weekend.

UPDATE. Drizzle has more or less tapered off across the forecast area, though one stubborn patch lingers along the I-5 corridor in Cowlitz County. As subsidence pushes drier air down from aloft, expect clouds to continue to thin with drizzle ending. As the cloud deck between 4000-6000 ft thins, expect a transition to valley fog over the coming hours . which may be locally dense through Monday morning. Weagle

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday . Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a sharp and high amplitude shortwave ridge over the eastern Pacific that is currently shifting eastward towards the Pacific Northwest. This will result in a lowering subsidence inversion and result in the lower atmosphere stabilizing further. This will produce inversions for most valley locations that will struggle to break Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the current Air Stagnation Advisory looks on track for the next 48 hours.

In the immediate short term, visible satellite imagery reveals a plethora of small scale features and terrain driven flow draped around the CWA. Pressure gradients continue to support some low level flow moving west to east across the Columbia River Gorge and Cascades this afternoon. However, models are in good agreement these pressure gradients will reverse overnight, albeit remain very weak. This will result in a slight easterly drift developing in the 850-925mb layer overnight over the Willamette Valley and Cascade foothills. This should result in some of the 3-5kft ceilings currently found across the area to dissipate later tonight. Assuming this occurs, we should see plenty of low clouds and fog develop in the Willamette and lower Columbia River valleys, but again this will be very dependent on whether or not the clouds around the 3-5kft layer actually clear.

This uncertainty in low cloud and fog development later tonight does result in a somewhat uncertain high temperature forecast for Monday. Assuming plenty of low clouds and fog develop overnight, clearing should be slow and many locations in the Willamette and lower Columbia River valley will struggle to reach the mid 40s. Did nudge high temperatures upward ever so slightly towards what most model guidance shows given the uncertainty, but still leaning that many locations away from the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge and edges of the Willamette Valley will struggle to break out of the low clouds Monday, and will instead stay socked in and remain cool all day.

Otherwise, the next weakening front still looks on track for Tuesday. Easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge should slowly increase Monday and Tuesday in advance of it, but still remain well below our strong wintertime easterly wind events for places like Troutdale and Corbett. Most models suggest the Tuesday front will bring light rain to the area late Tuesday morning/midday into Tuesday evening. The splitting nature of the upper level shortwave trough associated with this front should limit QPF totals.

Models generally agree a transitory weak shortwave ridge will result in the area drying out late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The next frontal storm system will then spread rain back into the area late Wednesday. PoPs and temperatures were generally nudged towards a blend of model guidance Tuesday and Wednesday given slight timing and strength differences between models and their ensembles. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . A front will move into northwest Oregon and southwest Washington on Thursday bringing ample precipitation to the area. While it will predominately fall as rain, snow is expected along the Cascades. This front is well ahead of a broad low pressure system with the low centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska. As the low moves eastward, zonal flow will take over. This generally westerly flow will usher in colder air from the North Pacific which will cause temperatures to begin to fall slightly on Friday. Snow levels will follow suit dropping to near 3,500 ft Friday night. A weak shortwave and continuous cold air flow will bring low temperatures to the mid 30s through the Willamette Vally, and snow levels below 2,000 ft on Sunday.

At this point, models are in decent agreement with the overall synoptic pattern, but there is quite a bit of spread in the mesoscale features. The spread in solutions is leading to less confidence in the output after Friday. -Muessle

AVIATION. Overnight conditions will be a challenge in regards to timing as weak flow, stable conditions and a surplus of low level moisture. These conditions are producing a mixture of VFR, MVFR, IFR and LIFR conditions. However, expect conditions to trend more towards IFR and LIFR through the overnight hours. Visibilities are decreasing faster that ceilings, and expect that pattern to continue over the next few hours. There is a lot of uncertainty as to when, or if these lowered flight conditions will improve as it will all depend on if ceilings lower to IFR levels. Locations near the eastern side of the Coastal range have ceilings below 2000 ft, with the very light easterly wind component, this could cause some backbuilding ceilings to fill in within the Willamette Valley. Current thinking is that the visibility restrictions will be on the shallow side, which will help flight conditions to improve towards MVFR and VFR by 18Z Monday, but confidence at this time is low.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Weak flow, stable conditions and a surplus of low level moisture should lead to MVFR conditions trending towards a mix of IFR and LIFR conditions overnight. Currently, expecting LIFR visibilities with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Conditions should improve between 18Z Monday and 00Z Tuesday, but confidence is low at this time. /42

MARINE. Weak high pressure will build over the waters through Mon when it moves inland. This lull after this latest front will cause seas to ease to near 5ft with a 11 second period through Tue. By Tue afternoon, seas will begin to build as another front will move over the waters. This high energy front will increase southerly winds to near 20 kt Tue afternoon, but they will quickly fall back to the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will temporarily build to near 11 ft Tue before easing back to 6 to 8 ft by early Wed morning.

Zonal westerly flow around a broad low pressure is expected to increase seas to near 15 ft by Thu afternoon. While the low is not expected to advance towards the waters, a shortwave embedded in the flow around the low will. At this time, confidence in this system is not high as models are depicting seas a bit higher than what would generally be expected with this system. It is possible that seas will be increased as the event comes closer. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . None.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 27 mi62 min 48°F1023.7 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 38 mi62 min E 7 G 8.9 46°F 49°F1022.4 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 39 mi56 min ENE 6 G 8 46°F 1022.7 hPa (+0.5)
46097 41 mi126 min N 5.8 50°F 50°F1021.7 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 45 mi36 min NNW 7.8 G 12 49°F 50°F1023.2 hPa47°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR19 mi81 minN 00.25 miFog39°F37°F93%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

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Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:08 AM PST     2.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:04 AM PST     8.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:19 PM PST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:28 PM PST     6.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.44.63.72.92.52.83.756.57.68.17.86.85.43.72.10.90.30.51.42.74.25.46.1

Tide / Current Tables for Taft, Siletz Bay, Oregon
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Taft
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:09 AM PST     2.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:57 AM PST     6.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:21 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:34 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:20 PM PST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM PST     5.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.932.42.12.33.14.35.66.56.96.65.74.53.11.80.80.30.41.22.43.74.75.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.