Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pacific City, OR

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Thursday Night...Hot and dry conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday. A broad area of high pressure will start to build over the region. This will bring very warm 850 mb temperatures increase on Tuesday to around 18-20 C and on Wednesday to 21-24 C. This will lead to temps in the low to mid 90s inland on Tuesday and upper 90s with a few triple digits possible on Wednesday. Temperatures along the coast expected to top out in the mid 60s to mid 70s both days.

Probabilities for reaching 100 degrees F on Tuesday are minimal for most of the forecast area. Locations with the highest probability are within the north-central part of the Willamette Valley (20-45% probability) with locations near Salem and Eugene both having around a 10% probability. Probabilities for daytime highs reaching 100 degrees F are much higher on Wednesday at 45-80%. Locations with the highest probability are in and around Salem, OR and near McMinnville, OR. Areas around the Portland/Vancouver Metro, Corvallis and Eugene have around a 50-70% probability. It cannot be ruled out that areas near Salem could also see daytime highs nearing 105 degrees F with around a 15% probability. Portland/Vancouver Metro area has around a 1% probability with Eugene around a 3% probability of reaching 105 degrees F.

On top of the hot conditions during the day, overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are expected to remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70, resulting in very little reprieve from the heat. Given the minimal changes in the forecast over the past few model runs, will maintain the current Heat Advisory which has been issued for the Portland/Vancouver Metro, Willamette Valley, Lower Columbia and Cowlitz Valleys, and the Columbia River Gorge from noon Tuesday through 10 pm Wednesday.

As we move beyond Wednesday and into Thursday, models have the forecast area starting a cooling trend. The cause is a series of weak upper level lows moving south our of western Canada. These lows will bring 850 mb temperatures around 15-17 C which will result in daytime highs on Thursday in the upper 80s to low 90s for the Willamette Valley, upper 70s to upper 80s for the Cascades and mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast. The cooling trend is expected to continue through the weekend. More info on that time frame will be found in the long term discussion.
/42-Batz


LONG TERM
Friday through Sunday...Long-range ensemble guidance depicts mean troughing developing over the Pacific Northwest Friday and continuing through the weekend. Members show varied shortwave troughs moving across the region, but the details of the timing and amplitude of these waves remain low confidence at this lead time.
This large-scale pattern would favor continued onshore flow, with coastal temperatures remaining steady while inland communities trend cooler and toward seasonal norms. Chances for precipitation remain minimal, with only a handful of ensemble members suggesting any accumulating rainfall from the transient shortwaves. -Picard

AVIATION
High pressure throughout the area, with most areas seeing clear sky VFR. Some persistent MVFR cigs remain at the northern coast (KAST, KTMK), and these see a 50-70% chance of remaining in place until 15z Tue. For the rest of the coast (KONP), MVFR stratus is expected to redevelop around 6z Tue, lasting through the rest of Monday night.

For inland terminals, between 9-16z Tue there is a 30-50% chance of MVFR stratus redeveloping throughout most of the Willamette Valley terminals, though this should only last for a few hours.
Northerly flow throughout the day, with gusts to 25 kts possible at the coast this afternoon, and 15-20 kts inland.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Generally VFR throughout the period, though there is a 30-50% chance of MVFR stratus developing between 9-16z Tue as marine stratus redevelops. Winds north-northwesterly throughout the day, with gusts to 18-20 kts possible during afternoon hours on Monday afternoon. Winds decreasing heavily after 5z Tuesday. /JLiu

MARINE
Morning fog has dissipated, and the cloud deck has lifted somewhat to a low broken deck. A very weak trough passes through the area this afternoon, bringing some slightly weaker winds and increase in seas. The current Small Craft has been extended through Tuesday morning owing to slightly elevated seas, rising to 7-10 ft at 9-10 seconds by this evening. The combination of northerly gusts to 25 kts and elevated seas will lead to occasional Small Craft Conditions until the latter half of the week.

A thermal trough rebuilds inland Tuesday into midweek, which combined with the high pressure over the Pacific will bring the return of increased north winds. Small Craft Advisory level winds will be tied to the diurnal cycle, with northerly gusts up to 20-25 kts possible during daytime hours on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Calmer winds and seas expected in the latter half of the week.
/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ108>122.

WA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ204>207-209-210.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ271>273.