Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne Falls, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 5:28PM Thursday January 23, 2020 5:18 AM EST (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:27AMMoonset 4:21PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 336 Am Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Today..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Chance of snow and slight chance of rain early in the morning, then rain and snow likely in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain likely and a chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..East wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain showers with snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202001231645;;380553 FZUS53 KAPX 230836 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 336 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-231645-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne Falls, MI
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location: 45.17, -84.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 230814 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 314 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 314 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

. Mild with light snow or mixed rain-snow .

High Impact Weather Potential: Low.

Low pressure is in the central plains. A stalled front extends ne from that low across Superior, where the boundary transitions to a cold front. Energy digging into the high plains will push the surface low se and e thru tonight, ending up in southern IL. This low will also be deepening a bit this afternoon and tonight. As this happens, the boundary to the north will devolve into an inverted trof, which will then slowly advance into WI. Associated deeper moisture will also only very slowly advance into western portions of the forecast area today, and southern portions late tonight. Precip trends are the main concern.

Band of deeper moisture and associated precip is evident on radar from the mid-MS Valley into portions of the western and northern lakes. The banded precip that impacted eastern upper MI yesterday has diminished and/or lifted a bit to the north. Still some light precip occurring up there, and it is mostly but not entirely snow; obs from Kinross and Sault MI both showing some rain mixing in from time to time. Meanwhile, some virga is pushing into w central lower MI, though cigs here are mainly at or above 9k ft. There is a ton of antecedent dry air at low and mid levels, per the 00Z APX sounding. Still, more substantial precip/returns are evident to the sw, heading our way.

The expectation is that precip will push into nw lower/eastern upper MI today, as the inverted surface trof edges closer. The digging upper low in the central/southern plains will help our mid-level flow back from w to s. That will lead to a considerable moisture bifurcation across northern MI, with western areas tapping some better moisture from time to time, but the east won't be. So light (though decaying) precip will make it into western/northern sections, especially by this afternoon. But places se of an APN-HTL line will not see very much at all. Precip will be mostly snow this morning, with perhaps some rain along immediate coastal locations. Mixed rain/snow will be a little more prevalent this afternoon. Those milder temps will limit snow-liquid ratios. Could see nw lower MI (near/west of CAD-TVC) and eastern upper MI (away from Lake Huron) pick up an inch-ish of slushy snow today.

Tonight, the deepening upper low in the MO/AR area will pump up a bit of a shortwave ridge, which lifts into northern MI overnight. Light mixed precip (mostly snow, but with some rain near the coasts) will be prevalent in the same areas early in the evening, though northern lower MI may gradually enter a bit of a lull. Overnight, eastern upper MI enters the lull, while light snow returns northward into central lower MI late. None of the precip is heavy, in a relatively moist environment but with subtle forcing. Parts of eastern upper MI, mainly west of I-75, will see up to an inch of new snow. Less than that elsewhere.

Max temps today mid 30s. Min temps tonight very, very mild again, upper 20s to near 30f.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 314 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

. Light Snow, Maybe a Touch of Drizzle .

High Impact Weather Potential . Not much as the snow amounts should remain light and the freezing drizzle potential low.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Friday morning, the 500 mb and sfc lows move up out of the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Lower Ohio Valley through the day. The models spread light snow into N Lower with the heaviest precipitation looking to remain south of US-10. Friday night, it looks like the models begin to entrain some dry air into the mid levels. Looking at the soundings, it doesn't look like it affects the P-type with dry air near -10c. That comes later into the day on Saturday. So for Friday night, it looks like snow, although there is a threat for freezing drizzle which becomes more of a snow/drizzle issue during Saturday as the temperatures warm enough to be above freezing. Saturday, the lows continue to move to the east are moving into the mid-Atlantic states. There looks to be some wrap around precipitation, which looks like snow, but soundings show there could be some dry air again around -10C, so will expect snow with the possibility of drizzle/freezing drizzle Sunday night. Looking through the freezing possibilities, think that if any ice accumulates or accretes, it will be minimal, but patchy glazes can't be ruled out.

Primary Forecast Concerns . This system looks weak compared to recent storms. So unless something that the models haven't caught onto forms, the main issue will be if the dry air aloft, is enough to get drizzle or freezing drizzle Saturday into Sunday morning. Nothing major, as it looks like it would be mixed with snow through most of the weekend.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 314 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday) . Sunday is a pause day, as the 850 mb temperatures aren't cold enough to get LES to get going. Monday, another clipper moves into the forecast area, and brings the chance of snow. The models begin to diverge on Tuesday as the GFs wants to hold onto some precipitation from a second wave that moves through, while the ECMWF is dry with a sharp 500 mb ridge. Wednesday remains dry on the ECMWF as most of the energy looks to go south with a system in the S Plains. The GFS has a brief pause, before another northern system drops into the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday. Temperatures through the period are still looking to be above normal.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1134 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Conditions expected to deteriorate heading through this morning as low clouds and light snow, mixed with rain, spreads northeast across the region. Steadiest precipitation expected across the western half of the area, including KMBL, KTVC, and KPLN. This is where the most significant vis restrictions to IFR are anticipated. Snow accumulations should remain fairly light, on the order of an inch or so. Snow to liquid ratios will by below normal for this time of year, likely around or under 10 to 1. Light winds expected through the duration.

MARINE. Issued at 314 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

Light south winds today will keep conditions below advisory levels. Those winds will back to the se and e tonight and Friday, while picking up a bit, as low pressure strengthens in the OH Valley. Small craft advisories will become likely again by Friday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST early this morning for LMZ341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . mb MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi39 min S 2.9 G 12 34°F 1020 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi49 min 33°F 33°F1018.8 hPa25°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI17 mi24 minSW 510.00 miOvercast33°F23°F68%1019.6 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI17 mi26 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast28°F18°F66%1020.5 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI19 mi24 minS 310.00 miOvercast32°F20°F61%1019.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI20 mi23 minSE 410.00 miOvercast32°F21°F64%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGLR

Wind History from GLR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW8SW8SW5SW8W13
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2 days agoSW3CalmCalmCalmW3NW3W9W75--W8
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W8NW5W4W3SW5W5NW4CalmCalmSW3SW3SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.