Saturday, September21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sister Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:53PM Saturday September 21, 2019 10:01 AM CDT (15:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:08PMMoonset 1:57PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 937 Am Cdt Sat Sep 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
This afternoon..S wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..NW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
LMZ541 Expires:201909212215;;128796 FZUS53 KGRB 211437 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 937 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-212215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sister Bay, WI
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location: 45.19, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 210918
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
418 am cdt Sat sep 21 2019
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 414 am cdt Sat sep 21 2019
scattered showers and thunderstorms at times the next couple days,
then a little cooler and less humid next week.

The amplified western trough eastern ridge upper pattern
across north america is beginning to transition to a more zonal
regime. The new pattern will have ridging off the west coast and
near the east coast, and a broad trough in between. The new
pattern is expected to be short-lived however, as the primary
features are forecast by the medium range models to undergo strong
amplification as they retrograde back into the positions they
currently occupy.

The upper level changes will cause temperatures to fall back some,
but they are still likely to oscillate between near and modestly
above normal. The zonal flow will shunt the very moist air mass
off to the east of the area, allowing the humidity to return to
more seasonable levels. Precipitation amounts are expected to be
aoa normal.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Sunday
issued at 414 am cdt Sat sep 21 2019
again this morning, fog was forming in the moist air mass across
the region. But surface winds around 5 kts and much stronger flow
just above the surface were resulting in primarily 2-5sm vsbys
instead of the dense fog of yesterday morning. The exception was
in the far east, where the gradient was weaker and vsbys were much
lower. Do not anticipate needing a fg.Y, and will handle the
situation with an sps if necessary.

Otherwise, the main forecast concern is the pop. In general, the
models forecast scattered shra tsra to develop in ia and then
sweep northeast across wisconsin this morning. Subsequent waves of
precipitation are likely through tonight and into Sunday. The
models suggest higher coverage will occur mid-day today and this
evening, and again after midnight over east-central wisconsin.

Trended the pop grids along those lines, but left plenty of room
for other outcomes as the ebb and flow of the forcing isn't real
clear cut. Pwats are high, but model qpfs are rather modest and
not really focused in any one area. Will mention the potential for
locally heavy rain in the hwo. About the western half of the
forecast area is covered by a marginal risk of severe on the spc
swody1 product. That would be mainly for the potential for some
marginally severe wind gusts with the storms.

The back edge of the precipitation should push into north-central
wisconsin late tonight. It will continue to push east from there,
but the advance will slow as a strong amplifying shortwave closes
in from the west and induces a wave on the frontal system
crossing the area. It's very difficult to determine exactly how
far east the back edge of the precipitation well get before coming
to a halt. Redevelopment back farther west across the forecast
area is possible late in the day and into the evening as strong qg
forcing with the shortwave sweeps in from the west.

Stayed close to a blend of top performing guidance products for
temperatures.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
issued at 414 am cdt Sat sep 21 2019
a passing upper level cyclone and surface boundary will keep a
chance for showers and storms going through Sunday evening, with
just a slight chance for the rest of the night. Surface high
pressure and a weak upper ridge should keep the area dry for the
early part of the upcoming work week. A cold front and upper level
short wave trough bring showers and storms back into the picture
for late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Surface high
pressure will bring a return to generally dry conditions for
Thursday into Friday. Some small pops are in order across far
north-central wisconsin late Friday as another cold front
approaches.

High temperatures early in the week will continue to be well
above normal, but cooler conditions are expected after the midweek
cold front passes. Highs should be within a couple of degrees of
normal for the latter half of the week.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 414 am cdt Sat sep 21 2019
stratus with ifr bases continued to slowly expand across much of
n-c and NE wisconsin, and near the lake michigan shoreline.

Elsewhere, MVFR fog prevailed. A brief period ofVFR conditions is
possible once the fog and stratus begin to lift, but general ifr
and lower-end MVFR conditions are expected thereafter as showers
become more prevalent across the area.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Beach hazards statement from noon cdt today through late tonight
for wiz022-040-050.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 10 mi22 min ESE 11 G 14 66°F 1015.9 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 13 mi32 min E 5.1 G 11 74°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi44 min SE 7 G 8.9 65°F1015.2 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 38 mi82 min SSE 13 G 18 67°F 1016.6 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 39 mi32 min SSE 9.7 G 12 66°F 64°F1016.9 hPa63°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI27 mi66 minS 89.00 miFair70°F66°F87%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmCalmS4SE6E5E5E5NE3SE3S3S3SE4S3SE3CalmCalmS3CalmS6S7S8S8
1 day agoS9SW10
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W565SW4CalmS5S7S6S7SW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4
2 days agoS11SW12
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SW10S6NE7E7SE7S4SE8S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.