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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 628 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until noon cst today...
Today..NW wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. A chance of flurries in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind 10 to 20 kts decreasing to 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Monday..W wind 5 to 10 kts backing sw 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Monday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less building to 3 to 5 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 101111 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 511 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES
- Roads will likely remain slippery over north-central Wisconsin this morning from the snowfall that occurred overnight.

- Temperatures will remain close to normal to start the work week with a warm up expected for Thursday and Friday. Not much in the way of precipitation chances for the upcoming work week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM
Today
Tonight...and Monday

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a longwave trough centered over the northern Mississippi Valley with several embedded shortwaves moving through the trough. One shortwave moving over northern Lake Michigan is supporting a surface trough moving southeast across northeast WI. Low level convergence along the trough is leading to an enhanced band of light to moderate snow, which is dropping a quick half inch to inch of snow. The snow is becoming more scattered upstream and over central WI before ending over western parts of the state.
Looking even further upstream, low stratus extends to eastern North Dakota and far southwest Minnesota. Focus of this forecast revolves around cloud and snow trends.

Today...The shortwave trough/surface trough and associated band of enhanced snow will exit northeast Wisconsin early this morning.
Lake effect snow showers over the snow belt of Vilas county will persist longer into the morning, but also should end by midday due to arrival of drier low level air and backing wind fields. Cloud cover is more uncertain, however, as models are handling the western extent poorly this morning. Because of cyclonic flow aloft and thermal troughing in the low levels, slowed down the clearing trend. Some forecast soundings are not optimistic about clearing with moisture getting trapped beneath a sharp inversion.
Because of the cloud cover and a colder airmass, don't expect much of a diurnal rise of temps. Highs will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Tonight and Monday...High pressure will build into the region tonight with winds diminishing. Assuming skies clear, light winds, clear skies, and some fresh snow will promote tumbling temps across the northwoods. Dropped temps much lower than the NationalBlend in the sandy soil areas.

On Monday, the surface ridge axis will move across the state.
Should see ample sunshine and mild temps with only some high clouds arriving from the northwest. Low level temps will be similar to today, so highs will range from the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

A fairly tranquil weather pattern expected through Thursday. There could be two periods of gusty west to southwest winds. The first period will be later Monday night into Tuesday as a clipper system passes to the northeast of the area. The second period will be on Thursday as the ECMWF model has a pressure gradient of 12mb across the state. 925mb winds also fairly strong to support gusty winds.

Late in the week, low pressure system and cold front will into the region Friday night into Saturday. Confidence is low if and where the system will produce rain during this time frame. The current grid package removed the rain chances, thus will not flip flop at this point by adding precipitation chances until timing and location come into better agreement.

Temperatures will be close to normal at the beginning of the period, but will turn substantially above normal during the latter half of the work week. Below normal precipitation is expected over the next week with no significant snowstorms in sight. The mild weather will also slow ice growth on rivers and lakes over the next week. December is when you start to see decent ice growth with rivers and lakes freezing over as the colder weather sets in.

AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 511 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Light snow and flurries will come to an end at most locations by the start of the taf period. Widespread broken to overcast conditions will prevail through the morning with ceilings mostly MVFR, though pockets of VFR ceilings will likely exist. Slowed the clearing trend this afternoon given that overcast conditions prevail through eastern North Dakota. Confidence is low when clearing will occur, but generally trended towards late afternoon and early evening across the region.

Ceilings will gradually rise through the day while gusty northwest winds to 25 knots this morning will subside. High pressure will move into the region tonight with winds becoming light. Once the clouds erode, skies should remain clear through the end of the taf period.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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