Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sister Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:28PM Thursday February 20, 2020 4:16 AM CST (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:21AMMoonset 3:22PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 322 Am Cst Thu Feb 20 2020
Today..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Sunny.
Tonight..W wind increasing to 15 to 20 kts with a few gusts near 25 kts. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft. Clear.
Friday..SW wind increasing to 20 to 25 kts, with a few gusts to near 35 kts north of sturgeon bay in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Sunny. A small craft advisory will be needed Friday and Friday night.
Friday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts, decreasing to 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft overnight. Mostly clear.
LMZ541 Expires:202002201730;;816808 FZUS53 KGRB 200922 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 322 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-201730-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sister Bay, WI
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location: 45.19, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 200910 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 310 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Friday Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

Lingering lake-effect clouds and a few flurries were impacting far northern WI early this morning, but should shift back north of the state border by around daybreak. Clear skies and light winds were allowing temperatures to fall into the single digits and teens below zero across the region, with a few of the typical cold spots in north central WI nearing 20 below zero.

The core of coldest air will shift east of the region today, but the very cold start to the day will offset the developing WAA, resulting in little change from yesterday's highs. Most locations will see highs in the teens, with a few locations in far northeast WI topping out around 20 degrees.

Increasing southwest winds and continued WAA will result in much milder temperatures tonight, with lows only dropping to zero to 5 above in most locations. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the middle of the night before recovering a bit toward morning.

Breezy southwest winds and abundant sunshine will bring a significant warmup on Friday, as temperatures warm well into the 30s at most locations. Winds will gust to 25 to 30 mph at most locations.

LONG TERM. Friday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

A split flow across the CONUS through the weekend is forecast to consolidate into a highly-amplified flow by the middle of next week. Dry and mild conditions still expected this weekend before a southern stream shortwave trough lifts northeast from the southwest CONUS into the mid-MS Valley on Monday and into the northeast CONUS on Tuesday. There continues to be model uncertainty as to how far north to take pops into WI Monday into Monday night, thus confidence is rather low at this point. By mid-week, a new upper ridge to build over western NOAM with a digging upper trough over the central CONUS, leading to more precipitation chances over northeast WI. Above normal temperatures to prevail through Monday, then slowly fall below normal at mid- week.

High pressure to stretch from the southern Plains to the mid- Atlantic states Friday night and with a new zonal flow bringing a Pacific air mass into WI, temperatures could be 15 to 20 degrees warmer compared to Thursday night despite mostly clear skies and diminishing winds. Look for min temperatures to be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Mild air will continue to flow over WI on Saturday as 8H temperatures reach +2 to +4C. The pressure gradient is not as tight compared to Friday, thus not nearly as blustery. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, max temperatures should be able to reach the middle 30s to around 40 degrees. A few of our warmer locations over central WI could easily get into the lower 40s.

Quiet and mild conditions for Saturday night with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal (upper teens to middle 20s). Models are in pretty good agreement in sending a weak cold front across WI Sunday afternoon, however the air mass over WI is still dry and gulf moisture is being intercepted by the shortwave trough entering the central Plains. Therefore, a dry and mild forecast remains unchanged for Sunday with max temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Once again, our warmer locations in central WI may get a touch warmer and reach the middle 40s.

Clouds should be on the increase Sunday night as the shortwave trough (and its associated surface low) move across the central Plains. Models differ a bit on how far north to send light precipitation into WI late Sunday night with the majority of the models favoring only southern WI. As the surface low and shortwave trough push across the mid-MS Valley on Monday, there may be enough mid-level forcing to at least bring a small chance pop into east-central WI. A wind shift to the northeast will usher in cooler air, but the mild start to the day should help bring max temperatures into the middle 30s to around 40 degrees. Any precipitation could be a rain/snow mix depending on temperatures when the precipitation begins.

A small chance of light snow may linger over parts of northeast WI into Monday night, but there may be a brief break between the departed system and the central Plains upper trough on Tuesday, although confidence is rather low on timing of the systems. Plenty of clouds to remain over the region on Tuesday with max temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.

This upper trough is progged to move east into the Great Lakes region for Tuesday night through Wednesday and bring unsettled weather back into the forecast for northeast WI. 8H temperatures drop into the -12 to -15C range by Wednesday afternoon, thus any precipitation would fall as all snow. Much too early for accumulation numbers, but with gulf moisture non-existent, early indications would be light accumulations. Max temperatures for Wednesday will fall below normal as readings to range from the lower 20s north, to the middle to upper 20s south.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1051 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

Good flying weather is expected through at least Friday with VFR flight conditions. Subzero temperatures overnight and Thursday morning might require engine heaters before starting.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Kieckbusch LONG TERM . Kallas AVIATION . Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 10 mi36 min W 7 G 13 6°F 1035.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi46 min 1°F 35°F1035.9 hPa-9°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 38 mi36 min NNW 5.1 G 8 6°F 1034.5 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI27 mi20 minWNW 310.00 miFair-3°F-9°F71%1038.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5W4W7NW6NW6--NW6NW7W7NW6NW6NW4CalmNW5NW5CalmN4NW3W3W3NW3NW5NW3
1 day ago----------NW9
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.