Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sister Bay, WI
May 15, 2024 5:13 AM CDT (10:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 12:13 PM Moonset 2:15 AM |
LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 357 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Early in the morning - NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Clear. Waves 2 ft or less.
Today - NE wind 5 to 10 kts. Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight - NE wind 5 to 10 kts veering se after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thursday - SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thursday night - SE wind 5 to 10 kts veering S after midnight. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 ft or less.
LMZ500
No data
No data
FXUS63 KGRB 150841 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 341 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Relative humidity is expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent range away from the bay and lake this afternoon which may cause increased fire potential.
- Thunderstorms are possible Thursday, and again at times into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Thursday
The upper ridge over Wisconsin will move slowly off to the east by the end of the day. Dry air in the low levels will continue to arrive from the east, thanks to a surface high over James Bay.
This adds up to a mostly sunny and pleasant day with low relative humidity and seasonable temperatures.
Clouds will increase tonight as an upper trough and surface warm front approach from Minnesota. There may be some showers in central and northcentral Wisconsin by daybreak. Low temperatures will be close to normal.
An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move across the region Thursday in association with the upper trough and surface warm front. Instability and shear are very modest, so we do not expect severe storms. High temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70s, except it will be cooler near Lake Michigan and where it is raining.
Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
An active pattern will persist through the duration of the extended as several transient shortwaves bring multiple rounds of rain/storms to the forecast area. Forecast for Friday looks to be trending drier as most models keep the more unsettled airmasses to our northwest and south; however, maintained low PoPs given the possibility for some showers or a pop-up storm to make it into the area. Still decent model spread with precip amounts for a weekend system, although they seem to be honing in on rain arriving Saturday evening.
Thursday evening precip... As a vertically stacked surface low and attendant occlusion approach from the west, models seem to be honing in on portions of central and north- central Wisconsin to receive periods of light to moderate rain Thursday evening.
Although mid-level dry air will initially pose a concern, model soundings eventually saturate enough to warrant PWATs of around 1" to 1.15" across east-central Wisconsin. Additionally, confidence in increasing in thunder potential Thursday evening as a corridor of Gulf moisture drags a swath of 500 to 700 J/kg of surface- based CAPE across central and east-central Wisconsin. Overall, a widespread 0.2" to 0.5" of QPF looks likely across the forecast area, although locally higher amounts of over half an inch will be possible with stronger cells/storms.
Weekend precip chances... Next chances for rain arrive over the weekend as closed upper-level energy spins up a surface low over Manitoba. The most recent suite of model runs seem to be coming into agreement about precip arriving along a cold front Saturday evening, although QPF amounts are still variable. With temperatures in the low 80s across central Wisconsin and windows for partial clearing during the day, CAPE values in the 400 to 500 J/kg range would warrant potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. However, Gulf moisture out ahead of the front will have to fight with dry air and high pressure building in behind the departing system. Thus, main thing to look out for will be changes in precip amounts as additional models come in range. No severe storms are currently expected.
Rest of the extended... The beginning of the week looks to be quieter as mid-level flow flattens out and weak high pressure settles in over the central Plains. Temperatures in central Wisconsin will plateau in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday through Monday before gradually declining through mid-week.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday evening. Frost is possible overnight across far north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. On Wednesday, wind gusts to around 15 knots are possible from 16z Wed to 01z Thu. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives early Thursday morning, then chance of rain will continue through the day Thursday.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ005-010>013- 018-019-021.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 341 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Relative humidity is expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent range away from the bay and lake this afternoon which may cause increased fire potential.
- Thunderstorms are possible Thursday, and again at times into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Thursday
The upper ridge over Wisconsin will move slowly off to the east by the end of the day. Dry air in the low levels will continue to arrive from the east, thanks to a surface high over James Bay.
This adds up to a mostly sunny and pleasant day with low relative humidity and seasonable temperatures.
Clouds will increase tonight as an upper trough and surface warm front approach from Minnesota. There may be some showers in central and northcentral Wisconsin by daybreak. Low temperatures will be close to normal.
An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move across the region Thursday in association with the upper trough and surface warm front. Instability and shear are very modest, so we do not expect severe storms. High temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70s, except it will be cooler near Lake Michigan and where it is raining.
Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
An active pattern will persist through the duration of the extended as several transient shortwaves bring multiple rounds of rain/storms to the forecast area. Forecast for Friday looks to be trending drier as most models keep the more unsettled airmasses to our northwest and south; however, maintained low PoPs given the possibility for some showers or a pop-up storm to make it into the area. Still decent model spread with precip amounts for a weekend system, although they seem to be honing in on rain arriving Saturday evening.
Thursday evening precip... As a vertically stacked surface low and attendant occlusion approach from the west, models seem to be honing in on portions of central and north- central Wisconsin to receive periods of light to moderate rain Thursday evening.
Although mid-level dry air will initially pose a concern, model soundings eventually saturate enough to warrant PWATs of around 1" to 1.15" across east-central Wisconsin. Additionally, confidence in increasing in thunder potential Thursday evening as a corridor of Gulf moisture drags a swath of 500 to 700 J/kg of surface- based CAPE across central and east-central Wisconsin. Overall, a widespread 0.2" to 0.5" of QPF looks likely across the forecast area, although locally higher amounts of over half an inch will be possible with stronger cells/storms.
Weekend precip chances... Next chances for rain arrive over the weekend as closed upper-level energy spins up a surface low over Manitoba. The most recent suite of model runs seem to be coming into agreement about precip arriving along a cold front Saturday evening, although QPF amounts are still variable. With temperatures in the low 80s across central Wisconsin and windows for partial clearing during the day, CAPE values in the 400 to 500 J/kg range would warrant potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. However, Gulf moisture out ahead of the front will have to fight with dry air and high pressure building in behind the departing system. Thus, main thing to look out for will be changes in precip amounts as additional models come in range. No severe storms are currently expected.
Rest of the extended... The beginning of the week looks to be quieter as mid-level flow flattens out and weak high pressure settles in over the central Plains. Temperatures in central Wisconsin will plateau in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday through Monday before gradually declining through mid-week.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday evening. Frost is possible overnight across far north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. On Wednesday, wind gusts to around 15 knots are possible from 16z Wed to 01z Thu. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives early Thursday morning, then chance of rain will continue through the day Thursday.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ005-010>013- 018-019-021.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 10 mi | 73 min | NW 6G | 44°F | 29.95 | |||
| CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 13 mi | 33 min | NNW 9.9G | 45°F | ||||
| MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 26 mi | 55 min | N 12G | 44°F | 60°F | 29.90 | 37°F | |
| FPTM4 - Fairport, MI | 38 mi | 33 min | NNE 4.1G | 40°F | ||||
| 45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. | 39 mi | 43 min | NNE 9.7G | 42°F | 44°F | 29.95 | 38°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Green Bay, WI,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE