McMinnville, OR Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, OR


December 8, 2023 10:16 PM PST (06:16 UTC)
Sunrise 7:37AM   Sunset 4:32PM   Moonrise  2:58AM   Moonset 1:59PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 207 Pm Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves se 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 7 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..SE wind 25 to 30 kt, becoming S 30 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 11 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds, building to 14 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Sat night..SW wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 17 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 14 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds in the morning. Rain.
Sun night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Mon..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 6 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely.
Mon night..NE wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt early in the evening. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue..E wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves E 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt, becoming 15 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 2 ft at 14 seconds, building to W 8 ft at 16 seconds.

PZZ200 207 Pm Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure Friday, then a warm front moves over the water Saturday morning. Increasing winds and seas on Saturday and Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, OR
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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 090558 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 947 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023


SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings temporary dry conditions through tonight, but rain returns on Saturday with the next system set to impact the region through Sunday. Showers continue into next Monday, with a stretch of drier weather possible through mid week and perhaps longer.




SHORT TERM
Tonight into Sunday...The main update to the forecast this evening was to issue a Flood Watch for primarily the north Oregon and south Washington Coast and adjacent Coast Range/Willapa Hills. While the forecasted QPF keeps most of our rivers well below flood stage, there appears to be enough of a chance for the QPF to either come in heavier or more concentrated in a shorter time period that the odds of river flooding appear quite a bit higher than our deterministic QPF/river forecast. For example, just 1.5-2" of extra rain in 12 hour window than currently forecast resulted in nearly all of our rivers between the Nestucca and Naselle Rivers reaching minor flood stage late Saturday into Sunday. The NBM suggests the odds of this happening in any given river drainage is around 25%. Even an extra 0.5-1" of rain over the current forecast brought several rivers above minor flood stage.

In the meantime, areas of fog are developing in the Willamette and lower Columbia River Valleys this evening. We should continue to see it expand in coverage before incoming high clouds limit its development later tonight.

As the next warm front spreads eastward into the region ahead of the atmospheric river, we should see ceilings lower and light precipitation spread across the northern CWA Saturday. Given the cold start and light easterly flow developing across the Cascades in advance of the warm front, precipitation appears likely to start off as light snow in the central Columbia River Gorge and upper Hood River Valley per the HRRR. It appears temperatures will most likely warm above freezing Saturday afternoon in these areas as warmer air aloft spreads into the region. Nonetheless, HRRR guidance suggests that the upper Hood River Valley in particular may stick below freezing through most of Saturday afternoon. This would result in light snow transitioning at least briefly to freezing rain before temperatures warm Saturday evening above freezing. Will hold off on any winter weather products for now given surface temperatures are still only 30-32F in the central Gorge and upper Hood River Valley.
Would like to see temperatures cool more solidly into the 20s for the above scenario to play out on Saturday. Nonetheless, there is certainly a 30-40% chance that at least some light snow falls midday Saturday that at least briefly (1-3 hours) transitions to light freezing rain Saturday afternoon. The good news is that given temperatures appear likely to be near freezing, there should be enough solar insolation coming through the clouds to keep many surfaces just above freezing Saturday afternoon even if the air temperature is 31-32F. This should limit the impacts of any snow and/or freezing rain assuming precipitation rates remain a couple hundredths of an inch per hour or less. All said, did update the forecast grids to get a mention of snow and freezing rain in the forecast, particularly for the upper Hood River Valley.

Also, it should be noted that 925-850mb winds are forecasted to peak around 50-60 kt as the atmospheric river impinges on the north Oregon and south Washington Coast Saturday afternoon. Pressure gradients will be oriented slightly more offshore than what's ideal for strong winds to surface along the coast. As a result, there is a 20-30% chance that the most exposed beaches and headlands sites between Tillamook and Pacific Counties will experience a few 60 mph gusts. At this point, the coverage and probability appears low enough that will hold off on any wind highlights for the coast, but the night shift will need to evaluate this further. /Neuman


SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Transient upper level ridging yields partially clearing skies and diminishing shower activity across the area this afternoon as a trough departs into the Rockies. High pressure will hold on through tonight and allow temperatures to dip well into the 30s across much of the area Saturday morning. Would not be out of the question to see some areas of frost or patchy fog tonight as a result, but high clouds spreading in this evening ahead of the next system may work against the latter scenario.

Attention then quickly turns to the latest and final (for now)
in a recent series of atmospheric rivers to impact the area as the next batch of warm frontal precipitation approaches the coast Saturday morning. The heaviest rain still mostly looks to remain confined north of a Portland to Tillamook line through early afternoon, slowly sagging south across the area through the afternoon and evening, with locations such as Eugene possible staying dry into Saturday evening. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a quick burst of heavy snow expected across the South Washington Cascades as precip moves in Saturday afternoon before snow levels rise above 7000 feet after midnight Sunday. Farther south, expect snow levels to rise quickly enough to limit significant winter weather impacts to the volcanic peaks in the Oregon Cascades as snow quickly transitions to rain at pass levels and below.

QPF values remain largely on track from previous forecast packages, keeping the heaviest rainfall amounts confined to northern coastal areas from roughly Lincoln County northward.
Expect another 3 to 5 inches of rain and locally higher amounts in these areas Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon, with rainfall amounts diminishing with south and eastward extent.
Will therefore likely see the biggest response on rivers draining the northern Coast Range and Willapa Hills peaking late Sunday, but guidance at this time is only showing a 15 to 30 percent for most of these rivers to reach minor flood stage.
The only river currently forecast to reach flood stage is the Grays in Wahkiakum County, WA. Precipitation gradually diminishes as the weakening AR sags southward through the area Sunday evening, with showers lingering into Monday morning in the wake of a cold front. /CB


LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Majority of WPC clusters are in agreement of upper level ridging building over the Pacific NW. As such, showers coming to an end on Monday. Then, as high pressure builds over the inland Pac NW, will see dry but cool weather for Tuesday. Models differ a bit for middle of next week, with some favoring longer duration of the high pressure and subsequent dry weather (GFS model), while others (ECMWF) favor a fast moving front with clouds and rain for Wed.
Suspect the GFS will win out, but with uncertainty in the models trends, will keep some chance of precipitation for Wed and Thu.
Again, could just as easily be dry with some offshore flow for Wed and Thu. Lets hope for the latter. /Rockey




AVIATION
Air mass is becoming more stable tonight as next warm front approaches the region. Enough radiative cooling for spotty fog to develop, but mid and high level clouds are increasing so expect fog threat to decrease overnight for much of the area.

A Pacific frontal system offshore will be approaching which will shift winds offshore, aiding in the drying out of the low levels with increasing high clouds through this evening. Breezy east winds through the Columbia River Gorge around roughly 18z Saturday as the system comes closer to shore. Conditions will deteriorate to IFR/MVFR after roughly 15-19Z along the coast and MVFR after 20z inland. Heavy rain along the coast, particularly north of KTMK, will reduce visibility. Southerly winds will gusting 25-35 kt kt along the coast.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected through roughly 20z. MVFR ceiling chances likely (50-80% chance) after 00z Sunday. Increasing potential for directional Low Level Wind Shear near the Gorge after about 20Z Sat as surface east wind and southerly winds around 2000 ft. Forecast soundings have a fairly wide spread in the range of 30 to 45 kt at 2000 ft, so forecast confidence in meeting criteria in moderate at this time. /mh




MARINE
High pressure will build across the waters Friday bringing weaker northwesterly winds with a westerly swell between 8-10 ft remaining. An upper level trough will send its attendant surface low towards the coast Friday night into Saturday bringing southerly winds back across the waters. Gale Force wind gusts ahead of the cold front starting around 7-10 AM Saturday and continuing through much of the day. Seas will likely build into the mid to upper teens within the persistent southwesterly flow.

High pressure will build across the waters early next week bringing more quiet weather into the forecast. Seas are expected to drop below 10 ft Sunday afternoon and remain below Advisory threshold through midweek. -Muessle/Muhlestein




PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-North Oregon Coast.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for South Washington Cascades.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Saturday for Columbia

River Bar.

Gale Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Saturday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Falcon OR to Cape Foulweather OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Coastal waters

from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM-Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM- Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 45 mi46 min 53°F30.42
46278 48 mi46 min 44°F 52°F7 ft

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Wind History for Astoria, OR
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No data


Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMMV MC MINNVILLE MUNI,OR 4 sm23 minN 041/4 sm-- Fog 37°F37°F100%30.43
KUAO AURORA STATE,OR 23 sm11 minNNE 041/4 sm-- Fog 36°F36°F100%30.45
KSLE MCNARY FLD,OR 24 sm8 mincalm10 smClear Shallow Fog 36°F36°F100%30.42

Wind History from MMV
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
   
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Fri -- 02:32 AM PST     2.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM PST     7.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:01 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:02 PM PST     1.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:56 PM PST     5.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon, Tide feet
12
am
3.6
1
am
2.9
2
am
2.4
3
am
2.4
4
am
3
5
am
4
6
am
5.3
7
am
6.5
8
am
7.4
9
am
7.6
10
am
7.2
11
am
6.2
12
pm
4.9
1
pm
3.6
2
pm
2.3
3
pm
1.5
4
pm
1.2
5
pm
1.5
6
pm
2.3
7
pm
3.4
8
pm
4.5
9
pm
5.3
10
pm
5.5
11
pm
5.2



Tide / Current for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Fri -- 03:01 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:35 AM PST     1.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:45 AM PST     6.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:05 PM PST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:53 PM PST     4.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet
12
am
3.8
1
am
3.2
2
am
2.5
3
am
1.9
4
am
1.5
5
am
1.5
6
am
2.3
7
am
3.6
8
am
5.1
9
am
6.2
10
am
6.5
11
am
6.2
12
pm
5.5
1
pm
4.6
2
pm
3.5
3
pm
2.5
4
pm
1.6
5
pm
1
6
pm
0.7
7
pm
1.1
8
pm
2.2
9
pm
3.5
10
pm
4.4
11
pm
4.7




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Portland, OR,



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