Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
McMinnville, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 4:32PM Sunday December 15, 2019 2:55 AM PST (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 10:52AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:201912151230;;801684 Fzus56 Kpqr 150331 Aaa Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast...updated National Weather Service Portland Or 731 Pm Pst Sat Dec 14 2019 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-270-275-151230- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm-waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 731 Pm Pst Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight pst tonight...
Rest of tonight..NE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell up to 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt, isolated to 25 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of rain.
Mon..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of rain.
Mon night..SE wind 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves se 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 15 seconds.
Tue..SE wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 10 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue night..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 10 ft. Chance of rain.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. W swell 10 ft.
Thu..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Combined seas 16 ft.
PZZ200 731 Pm Pst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak low pressure located roughly 100 nm west of newport will slowly dissipate while approaching coos bay early Sun. A weak warm front will lift north across the waters Sunday night and early Mon. Offshore flow will develop early next week before a series of fronts bring increasing winds and seas during the latter half of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, OR
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location: 45.21, -123.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 150420 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 820 PM PST Sat Dec 14 2019

Updated aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Northwest flow aloft will remain over the area through Sunday. High pressure builds offshore Sunday night and gradually shifts toward the coast Monday. Offshore low-level flow strengthens Monday night and Tuesday. The high pressure ridge shifts east of the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. A more progressive and wetter pattern is expected for the latter half of next week.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Tuesday . Early afternoon water vapor imagery showed an upper level trough near 45N 128W. The associated surface trough was near 125W at 21Z. Infra-red and visible imagery revealed a surface low circulation about 75 to 100 nm west of K6S2. Precipitation early this afternoon was fairly scattered and light. KRTX dual-pol doppler radar showed the strongest returns in the Columbia River Gorge between KTTD and KCZK. Models do suggest some isentropic lift along the 300K surface this afternoon through the evening as the trough moves inland. Latest models take the brunt of the dynamics toward southwest Oregon and northern California, but some of the higher res models continue to hint at a deformation band-type feature lingering over the north part of the CWA into the evening. Opted to remove the mention of thunderstorms over the coastal waters west and south of Newport as the 12Z HREF showed minimal to no probability on its 4-hr product. The SPC calibrated thunderstorm probability guidance showed the highest threat through 06Z Sun over the southern Oregon and northern California waters.

Model time-height sections and the Hi-Res ARW boundary layer condensation vapor pressure graphics indicate ample low level moisture and stability tonight through Sun morning, which will be highly favorable for fog and stratus across much the interior lowlands. The 12Z models show a building upper level ridge along 130W Sun. However, an over-running pattern will likely result in considerable cloud cover Sun with the possibility of spotty light rain or areas of drizzle. A few of the SREF members for KPDX show some light QPF tonight and Sun. Several GEFS members, including the operational run, indicate some light precip into Mon, even though the ridge eventually drifts inside 125W by Mon. The ridge continues to amplify Mon through Tue due to a deepening upstream upper level trough. Light offshore low-level flow is expected to develop through the Gorge late Mon, but strengthen Mon night and Tue. The 18Z NAM has a -7 to -8 KTTD-KDLS gradient 12Z Tue. Typically, models tend to be 1-2 mb too low with the peak gradient. Thus, would not be surprised to have 60-80 mph wind gusts at Crown Point and Corbett, with the strongest gusts at Crown Point. Air quality will be another factor that will need some consideration during the Mon-Tue time frame. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Tuesday night through Saturday . The offshore pattern continues Tue night through Wed, but the synoptic scale details for that time period are a little muddled. The operational GFS shows a compact closed 995 mb low near 43N 126W 12Z Wed. This appears to be in the minority of solutions as several individual members show a much weaker closed low, or more of an open wave. The operational ECMWF barely shows any surface reflection, with the majority of its ensemble members showing around a 1000 mb low favoring 45N 125W. In any event, with offshore low-level flow continuing through the Gorge have gone slightly lower on POPS than the NBM. Models are in decent agreement showing a much more progressive and wetter pattern beginning Wed afternoon or Wed night. The GEFS shows precipitation ramping up Wed night in a majority of its members. However, the Relative Measure of Predictability valid 12Z Thu is rather low, suggesting below-average forecast confidence.

A particular forecast challenge Wed night and Thu will be the potential for freezing precip in the Central Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley. Have not included it in the grids, but this will be something future shifts will need to evaluate. Above-average confidence exists in the Thu-Fri time frame that an atmospheric river will set up somewhere off the Oregon coast. The operational ECWMF and GFS favor southwest Oregon and northern California, as has been the case for the past couple of events. Most GEFS members are showing .50 to 1.0 inches of precip for KEUG and KPDX in the Thu-Fri night time frame. ECWMF ensembles suggest QPF totals in excess of 2 inches through Fri for the valley and up to 4 inches along the central coast. Much larger discrepancies can be seen in the operational runs Fri-Sat. The GFS maintains the atmospheric river over the forecast area, while the ECMWF keeps the bulk of it offshore and lifts it more north as an upper level trough digs on the back side. All in all, the end of the extended period looks wet with snow levels well above the Cascade passes. Weishaar

AVIATION. Fog is beginning to build in at KHIO and along the coast. VFR cigs through the Willamette Valley will quickly drop to MVFR later Sat night as the fog becomes more widespread. Webcams already show MIFG developing around KPDX and the Willamette Valley. Due to very few mixing features, the fog will be challenging to erode. Because of this, expect fog to remain through around 19Z Sun. At this point, a wind shift to the west is expected after 22Z Sun, increasing winds from near 2 kt to 5-6 kt. Scattered showers remain Sat night but are diminishing through the night. Another chance for fog redevelopment occurs after 04Z Mon as high pressure aloft builds in and winds again become light and variable.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . While VFR cigs are present, a scattered deck around 700 ft AGL should quickly develop to a stratus layer. Fog is expected to develop late Sat night as the dewpoint depression decreases. After 19Z, all fog should be gone and low VFR cigs will return. Showers should be limited to none through Sun. -Muessle

MARINE. Seas have been slow to come down today, as Buoys 46029 and 46050 were still reporting seas 11-13 ft as of 2 PM this afternoon. Expect a slow downward trend to continue this evening, with seas likely subsiding to less than 10 ft by midnight or perhaps a couple hours sooner.

Otherwise, we have weak low pressure near the SW corner of our outer waters, moving SE toward the southern Oregon coast. Winds will likely remain fairly light to the north of the low, which should allow fairly benign winds to go on through tonight and Sunday. Southeast winds will increase Sun night and early Mon as a warm front lifts NE across the waters. Winds appear borderline for an SCA Sun night/Mon, then should increase further as stronger low pressure and its associated frontal system approach the coast later Tue or Wed. Models are all over the place with the handling of this system, with the 12z GFS and NAM suggesting a closed low on the order of 995 mb making landfall somewhere along the Oregon Coast, while the 12z ECMWF and GEM take the bulk of this energy to our south. For now, our forecast reflects increasing south winds and W-SW swell mid- to late-week, with gusts approaching Gale Force at times as fronts pass through. -Weagle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Sunday for Columbia River Bar.





Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 45 mi55 min 49°F1019.1 hPa (+1.5)
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 60 mi55 min E 5.1 G 7 37°F 50°F1019 hPa (+1.9)
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 61 mi55 min ENE 5.1 G 6 37°F 1019 hPa (+1.8)

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR4 mi62 minN 010.00 miOvercast35°F34°F96%1018.9 hPa
Salem - McNary Field, OR22 mi59 minENE 46.00 miFog/Mist41°F39°F93%1018.6 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi62 minSSE 30.25 miFog39°F37°F96%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMMV

Wind History from MMV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5--S3SW3CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N4N6N5N4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmSW3SW4CalmW4SW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE33S4S10SW11
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SW11S6SW9SW6W5S6SW5S5E6SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Sun -- 03:09 AM PST     6.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:24 AM PST     3.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:54 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:52 PM PST     8.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:25 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:20 PM PST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.45.16.46.96.65.84.83.93.33.44.25.56.988.47.96.85.13.21.4-0-0.7-0.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Sun -- 04:06 AM PST     5.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:27 AM PST     2.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:55 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:49 PM PST     7.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:23 PM PST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.42.13.95.35.95.75.14.23.32.52.12.23.45.16.77.16.86.14.93.62.20.90-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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