Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
McMinnville, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:22PM Friday August 14, 2020 1:33 AM PDT (08:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:26AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:202008141130;;417483 Fzus56 Kpqr 140320 Aaa Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast...updated National Weather Service Portland Or 820 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-141130- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 820 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning...
Rest of tonight..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri night..N wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming E less than 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 4 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the E 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. NW swell 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun..S wind to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Sun night..S wind to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Mon..SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Tue..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 3 ft.
PZZ200 820 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will remain over the waters through Saturday with thermal low pressure over the south oregon coast. A southerly wind reversal is expected to develop over the south oregon waters Saturday evening and spread northward overnight. High pressure becomes centered over the inner waters Sunday. Northerly winds look to return by next Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, OR
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location: 45.21, -123.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 140346 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 844 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Updated Aviation and Marine Sections

SYNOPSIS. Warm trend starts in earnest on Friday, as high pressure over the Great Basin builds into the Pac NW. WIll see rather hot and dry weather for Saturday and Sunday, especially inland. Still warm next week, but will gradually cool back to the 60s on the coast and 80s inland.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Sunday . Enjoy this pleasant evening, as next several will be on the warmer side. Still have light northwesterly onshore flow tonight will maintain somewhat cooler air mass over the region. Still have rather dry air mass, as evident with afternoon dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. So, should see temperatures should drop back to the lower 50s overnight, with a few spots into the 40s.

But, high pressure over the southwestern USA will back into the Great Basin, with warming trend for our area. Not too bad on Friday, with temperatures back into the 80s for much of the interior. But, the thermal low on the south Oregon coast, aka the ORCA low, will build northward along the coast during the day. This will tighten the north to south pressure gradients over western Oregon, resulting in breezy north winds for Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts 20 to 25 mph likely for parts of the Willamette Valley and nearby terrain, as well as the Oregon coastal strip.

Much warmer conditions expected for Saturday. Building heights and light offshore flow will boost temperatures well 70s and 80s along the coast. Could see a few spots along the coast valleys reaching near 90 deg. But, will be very warm inland, with highs in the middle to upper 90s, with a few spots 100 to 102 deg. Model 850 mb temperatures, for the most part, still +22 to +26 deg C, which would support this idea. Warm weather continues on Sunday, though will see bit of relief along the coast as get bit of shallow onshore flow for that area. But, still warm inland. This due to the thermal through, or the elongated ORCA low, shifting inland and sitting over the Willamette Valley for Sunday. So, with all the heat expected, and warm night expected Saturday night, will issue a mix of heat warnings and advisories . Excessive Heat Warning for the Willamette Valley, Clark County, Columbia Gorge and Hood River Valley and Cascades Foothills below 2500 feet for Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening, and a Heat Advisory for the Coast Range, Cots Valley and Cascades below 2500 feet for same time frame.

Interestingly, some potential for smoke from the Mosier fire to drift westward Sat and Sat night, affecting areas in the Hood River Valley, western Columbia Gorge, and parts of the eastern Portland metro area. But, this will depend on status of the fire by that timeframe. For now, will put patchy smoke in forecast. /Rockey

LONG TERM. Sunday night through Thursday . Upper flow is southerly Sunday night into early Monday. Models still showing some weak instability drifting northward Sunday night, though best instability is east of the Cascades. But, even so, can not rule out a thunderstorm over the Cascades Sunday night. Will keep 20 pct PoPs for such in the forecast. But, air mass is quite dry, and would not be surprised if just end up just seeing some mid-level clouds with a few virga over the Cascades at that time.

Weak surface high will build along the coast Sunday night and Monday, giving some light onshore flow to the lower elevations. but, looks like this will be a rather shallow marine layer, with only a slight relief for inland areas on Monday. Will trend high temperatures back to the 60s and 70s along the coast, but lower 90s still a good bet farther inland. At least trend is starting, and will see slow cool down through rest of next week, with highs generally in the 80s inland, and 60s on the coast. /Rockey.

FIRE WEATHER. The breezy north to northeast winds in parts of the region, combined with low humidity, will join forces to boost potential of fire spread on Friday afternoon and evening. Highest potential will be in the Willamette Valley and nearby areas of the east slopes of the Coast Range from about McMinnville southward. Good bet will see winds gusting 20 to 30 mph along with afternoon humidity down to 18 to 25 percent in those areas. As such, will upgrade Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for those areas. Rest of the region will be dry and locally breezy, but think not as windy. Even so, finer fuels could carry a loose fire.

Though northerly winds ease Friday night, will maintain very warm and dry air mass for Saturday and Sunday. The elongated ORCA low, aka the thermal low of southwest Oregon, will sit over the Coast Range on Saturday and Saturday night, then slowly shift eastward on Sunday, before reestablishing itself east of the Cascades on Monday. Models continue to highlight enhanced instability with high haines air. So, have posted a Red Flag Warning for dry and unstable conditions over the Coast Range and Willapa Hills on Saturday, and essential I5 Corridor and Willamette Valley eastward for both Saturday and Sunday. Main concern with dry and unstable conditions is that with dry fuels, the air mass will be supportive for any existing or new fire to becoming plume dominated. /Rockey

AVIATION. VFR SKC the through Fri evening. The 12Z high- resolution models hint at possible patchy IFR to LIFR along the south Washington and far north Oregon coast between 12Z and 15Z Fri, but do not think anything that develops will impact the KAST terminal. Gusty northwest to north wind Fri afternoon, especially along the coast and in the central and south interior valleys.

KPDX and APPROACHES . VFR SKC through Fri evening. Northwest wind gusts to 20 kt mid to late Fri afternoon through evening. Weishaar

MARINE. Minimal changes to current forecast and hazards. High pressure will remain over the waters through Sat, with thermally-induced lower pressure over the south Oregon coast. Incoming 00Z model guidance in line with previous runs showing 20-25 kt boundary layer wind speeds over PZZ255 and PZZ275 Fri morning and then spreading into the northern zones by early afternoon. Gusts to 30 kt Fri afternoon, primarily south of Cascade Head. Wind speeds look to relax below advisory criteria late Saturday. Models continue to advertise a southerly wind reversal over the south Oregon waters early Sat evening and spreading to Cape Disappointment by 12Z Sun. Typically, models do not handle the timing of these southerly reversals all that well. Would not be surprised if it occurred a little sooner. A return to a north wind pattern looks to return by next Tuesday.

Seas will hold in a 4-6 ft range through tonight and then build a little higher Fri due to a greater wind-wave component. Relatively short periods, on the order of 8 seconds, will result in choppy and very steep sea conditions. Weishaar

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Columbia River Gorge-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley-Upper Hood River Valley-Western Columbia River Gorge.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Central Oregon Cascade Foothills-Mt. Hood National Forest West of Cascade Crest-North Oregon Cascade Foothills- Willamette National Forest-Willamette Valley.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for East Slopes of the Central Oregon Coast Range-Willamette Valley.

Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Cascades in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Lower Columbia- Northern Oregon Cascades.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for Central Oregon Coast-East Slopes of the Central Oregon Coast Range- North Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast Range.

WA . Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Central Columbia River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area- Western Columbia River Gorge.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Clark County Lowlands-Eastern Gifford Pinchot National Forest Mt Adams Ranger District-Extreme South Washington Cascades and Foothills.

Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Cascades.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for East Willapa Hills-South Washington Coast and West Willapa Hills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 7 PM PDT Saturday for Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to noon PDT Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 45 mi45 min 58°F1022.3 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 60 mi45 min NNE 1 G 1.9 53°F 54°F1021.3 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 61 mi33 min N 1.9 G 1.9 52°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR4 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair55°F46°F74%1020.7 hPa
Salem - McNary Field, OR22 mi37 minNNW 410.00 miFair61°F45°F56%1020.5 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi40 minENE 310.00 miFair62°F46°F56%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMMV

Wind History from MMV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3NW3SW3NW3CalmCalmCalm45N8NE5N7N5Calm5NW6N8N9N7N10N3NW3Calm
1 day agoW4CalmW4SW4W4CalmCalmW3Calm3N6N85Calm4N5E7NE10N6N7N7N7NW4NW6
2 days agoNW3CalmNW5NW3NW3NW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S5NE4CalmSW11SW12SW12W7SW6SW8SW7SW6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:29 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:16 AM PDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:49 AM PDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:32 PM PDT     3.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:24 PM PDT     7.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.33.11.91.10.70.81.52.53.54.455.14.94.33.73.33.33.74.65.66.67.27.16.6

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:27 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:19 AM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:46 AM PDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:26 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:35 PM PDT     2.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:21 PM PDT     6.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.94.13.12.11.30.70.40.61.42.53.54.24.44.13.632.52.12.12.845.36.16.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.