Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McMinnville, OR

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:56PM Friday July 19, 2019 3:42 PM PDT (22:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:49PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 247 Pm Pdt Fri Jul 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..N wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves N 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat night..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt early in the evening. Wind waves N 3 ft at 6 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 3 ft.
Mon night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 3 ft.
Tue..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 3 ft.
Wed..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 3 ft.
PZZ200 247 Pm Pdt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will reside over the waters through tonight and then weaken over the weekend. A thermally-induced trough along the south oregon coast will strengthen in the afternoon and evenings through Saturday. A developing low in the ne pacific on Sunday will weaken the surface pressure gradient across the oregon and washington coastal waters Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, OR
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location: 45.21, -123.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 192216
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national service portland or
315 pm pdt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis Building high pressure across the region will result in
a warming and drying trend through the weekend before cooler
temperatures and more marine clouds return towards the middle of next
week.

Short term Tonight through Monday... Water vapor satellite imagery
reveals a low amplitude shortwave ridge moving eastward towards the
pacific northwest this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery also
shows some shallow cumulus across far northwest oregon and southwest
washington this afternoon. Expect the bulk of these clouds to
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

Models are in good agreement the aforementioned shortwave ridge will
traverse the region over the next 24 hours before building northward
across the inland northwest and rocky mountain states during the
remainder of the weekend. This will result in temperatures warming
well into the 80s in the willamette valley and columbia river gorge
Saturday and Sunday with plenty of sunshine areawide. There is a
chance a few valley locations could hit 90f on Sunday, but the
hottest weather should remain east of our cwa.

Models remain good agreement a shortwave trough will then dig
southward off the pacific northwest coast Monday. This should result
in increasing southwesterly flow aloft across the region and allow
more marine air to begin spreading into the interior valleys. The net
result should be temperatures cooling areawide on Monday with an
increase in marine clouds along the coast Sunday night into Monday.

While most models and their ensemble members have suggested
thunderstorm chances will remain well east of the cascade crest in
advance of this storm system, a couple recent model runs from the gfs
and NAM suggest some elevated instability will lift northeastward
across the region in advance of an elongated and weak PV anomaly
brushing our cascade zones. Given the large amount of uncertainty
with this scenario have opted to leave out a mention of thunder for
now, but may need to add at least a slight chance mention of dry
thunderstorms if the GFS nam continue to suggest this possibility for
late Sunday night and or Monday morning. Neuman

Long term Monday night through Friday... After warmer weather over
the weekend, expect another brief cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday as
an upper level trough moves across the pac nw. The marine layer will
likely deepen ahead of this system Monday night, with low clouds
pressing into the inland valleys Tuesday morning. Cannot rule out
some areas of drizzle as this occurs, especially along the coast and
coast range. Models seem to be in decent agreement that 500 mb
heights will already start to rebound by Wednesday afternoon as our
upper trough departs NE toward the canadian rockies and high
pressure builds into the pac nw. This will likely be the beginning
of another significant warming trend, especially for inland areas,
with temperatures expected to be some 5 to 10 degrees above
normal by the end of the week. weagle

Aviation Vfr through the next 24 hours. Breezy north-northwest
surface winds are developing again this afternoon, decreasing
after 08z. May see some patchy fog develop in the coast range
valleys early Saturday morning, but should stay well away from
the terminals.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR next 24 hours. Gusty nnw surface winds
develop again this afternoon after 23z through about 09z
Saturday. -mccoy

Marine High pressure over the waters weakens over the weekend.

A thermal trough will continue to strengthen over the south
oregon waters this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon,
resulting in gusty north winds, today a bit stronger than
yesterday, resulting in gusts up to 30 kts off the central oregon
coast, and up to 25 kt off the north oregon & south washington
coast. Keeping current small craft advisory out through tonight,
but extended it until 5 am Saturday as the models keep gusty
winds around or above 20 kt into the early morning hours. As high
pressure starts to weaken Saturday, winds should be weaker
Saturday afternoon and evening, but we may still see gusts 20 to
25 kt. By Sunday, a low pressure system passing north of our
waters will greatly diminish the pressure gradient over our
waters, meaning winds should stay benign.

Buoys show seas generally around 5 to 6 feet with a dominant
period around 9 seconds. A secondary swell out of the southwest with
a period around 15-16 seconds continues to diminish, and should
be almost negligible by Saturday morning. Little change in the
seas over the weekend, then we will see seas drop to around 3 to
5 feet through much of next week. -mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to midnight pdt
tonight for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 am pdt this morning.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 45 mi60 min 62°F1020.6 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 60 mi60 min NNW 16 G 22 62°F 54°F1019.7 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 61 mi42 min N 17 G 19 59°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR4 mi49 minVar 310.00 miFair74°F44°F34%1018.4 hPa
Salem - McNary Field, OR22 mi46 minNNE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds74°F43°F33%1018.1 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi49 minNNE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F44°F35%1018.8 hPa

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Last 24hr4NE8N10N12----N5NW5NW4CalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SE53Calm--N12
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1 day agoW6W10W9W11W8W8W9SW8SW9SW8W6W6SW4SW3SW3--NW3NW6NE7NW7W33N7N10
2 days agoW14
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W15SW11W14W5SW6SW6SW7SW6SW5SW7SW6SW5W4CalmS10S10S12SW13S9W9W10SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Morrison Street Bridge, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns, Willamette River, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.