Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
McMinnville, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:11PM Saturday January 25, 2020 12:38 PM PST (20:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 6:04PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:202001260115;;487078 Fzus56 Kpqr 251040 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 240 Am Pst Sat Jan 25 2020 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-260115- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 240 Am Pst Sat Jan 25 2020
.gale warning in effect late tonight...
Today..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the morning, then backing to se in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds, shifting to the se 2 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 10 ft at 15 seconds. Rain before Sunrise, then chance of showers in the morning. Rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 25 to 30 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 10 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early. Combined seas 15 ft with a dominant period of 17 seconds. Showers likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..S wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, easing to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Combined seas 16 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Rain.
Mon..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Mon night..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the evening. Wind waves sw 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 16 seconds. Rain.
Tue..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 13 ft.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 13 ft.
PZZ200 240 Am Pst Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A 995 mb low will brush by the offshore waters late Sat, then make landfall over vancouver island, bc Sun morning. Active weather persist through the upcoming week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, OR
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location: 45.21, -123.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 251802 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 1001 AM PST Sat Jan 25 2020

Updated Aviation Discussion

SYNOPSIS. Rather persistent westerly flow off the north Pacific will keep the parade of fronts moving into the Pac NW through next week. Next up will be a moderately strong low pressure tonight, bringing rain and gusty south winds tonight, especially along the coast. Front on Monday has potential for another round of heavy rain, which will push coastal rivers up to bankfull again.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday . Weak front has been lifting north across the region overnight. At 3 am, the back edge of steady precipitation was roughly along the Columbia River. NOAA satellite imagery showing main upper short wave over northwest Oregon and lifting into Washington state. Once this passes, will see end to the steady precipitation, with just a chance of showers for much of the region for most of the morning into the afternoon. Model isentropic lifting shifts north and east of the region by 7 am, with weak lift afterwards. So, will trend forecasts in this direction, with rain over the northern zones early this am, then a chance of showers for good part of today. Still mild, with afternoon high temperatures back into the lower to middle 50s.

Next system will be develop off the south Oregon coast later today, and staying well offshore as it lifts northward towards southern Vancouver Island tonight into early Sunday morning. Still minor differences in the models, but GFS and NAM in fairly good agreement in track and strength of the low pressure area. Generally, the low will be deepening as it moves northward, down to about 990 to 994 mb by time it is about 150 miles west of Astoria around midnight tonight. NAM bit faster on pushing the low to the north. So, will keep with a blend in the model solutions paths. Rain will spread north across the region later this afternoon into this evening as the warm front buckles north in advance of the low. But, main punch with this low will be the increasing winds tonight as the low lifts north, with the trailing cold front punching inland later this evening. Will trend towards increasing southerly winds later in the evening. Pressure gradients favor southeasterly winds until mid to late evening, then turn, with southerly winds increasing between 10 pm and 2 am. But, tightest gradients stay well offshore around the low. Still, is support for gusts of 45 to 55 mph along the coast, but as usual, the strongest will be on the coastal headlands and open beaches. Timing of strongest winds look to be from about 1 or 2 am until 7 am Sunday, then winds gradually easing.

Will have to watch the total rainfall and its effect on the coastal rivers for tonight into Sunday. Rain, then then persistent showers on Sunday over the coastal mountains could result in another 1 to 2 inches of rain for that area. Coastal rivers still not all that low after the past rains especially those on the south Wash and far north Oregon coast. Will not take much rainfall to push them back to bankfull range. The Grays, Naselle, Nehalem and Wilson Rivers are those most likely a return to bankfull levels tonight and Sunday.

Rain will transition to showers on Sunday, with decreasing showers during the day. However, another fast moving front will push another round of rain back to the region by late Sun afternoon and Sunday evening. Generally occasional light rain will continue Sunday night into Mon am. But, another strong warm front will lift north across the region on Monday. Appears this front will be another slow mover, with rain becoming heavy at times over the coastal mountains by afternoon. Precipitable water plume of 0.9 to 1.1 inches aimed at the Pac NW on Mon. Will add mention of heavy rain at times for the coast and coastal mountains for Mon afternoon. If trends continue, may need to post Flood Watch for south Washington Coast and Willapa Hills, as well as North Oregon coast for late Mon through Tue. /Rockey

LONG TERM. Monday night through Friday . Persistent valley rain and mountain snow is expected through the end of next week. Models and their ensembles are in agreement that a trough will move through the Pacific Northwest Monday night and Tuesday, bringing heavy rain to the coast and valley and snow in the Cascades. There will be a brief break from this precipitation during the day on Wednesday before the next system moves through the area Wednesday night. Precipitation will continue Thursday and Thursday night before another brief break on Friday. A zonal flow will persist through the forecast period keeping highs and low temperatures above average for this time of the year. Snow levels will be around 4500ft Mon through Wed before climbing to around 6000ft through Fri. -Thaler

AVIATION. In the postfrontal air mass expect the MVFR conditions along the coast to slowly improve towards VFR as light offshore flow develops. Coastal locations will see a return of MVFR conditions starting around 06Z to 09Z Sunday. Inland areas in general will maintain VFR conditions but expect a return of MVFR conditions stating around 09Z to 12Z Sunday. The MVFR conditions will be associated with a warm front moving across the area this evening, this front will also signal the return of precipitation to the forecast area.

Coastal sites will see southerly gusts 30 to 40 kt after 09Z Sunday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mainly VFR today but expect a return of MVFR conditions along with precipitation around 11Z Sunday as a warm front moves into the area. /42

MARINE. Active weather pattern continues for the foreseeable future as a series of Pacific frontal systems move across the coastal waters. A warm front will lift north of the waters this morning with southerly winds easing. Seas around 10 to 12 ft early this morning will subside just below 10 ft by the afternoon. The next more significant front will move north through the waters tonight. The associated 995 mb low will be about 200 nm west of Astoria between 10 pm Sat and 1 am Sun as it heads toward Vancouver Island, BC. The cold front follows several hours later. Models are in general agreement on the track and strength, but differ slightly on the timing. Have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for late tonight and Sun morning. May need to extend or put another Gale Warning for Sun afternoon and evening as another quick moving low tracks further offshore. Another storm arrives Mon afternoon or evening, but confidence is low on timing and strength of winds due to large differences in models. Though it appears gale force winds are possible during that time period.

Bottom line is, with the weather pattern remaining active well into next week, we expect generally rough conditions on the Pac NW waters for at least next several days. /mh Weagle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.



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This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 45 mi57 min 51°F1018.1 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 60 mi57 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 52°F 51°F1017.6 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 61 mi39 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 53°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR4 mi46 minS 510.00 miFair53°F45°F74%1017.6 hPa
Salem - McNary Field, OR22 mi1.7 hrsS 1010.00 miA Few Clouds54°F46°F77%1017.8 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi46 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast55°F45°F69%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMMV

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Last 24hrS12S9S9S5S5SW3CalmCalmCalmE3N4NW4CalmCalmSE6SE6SE6CalmS9S10S8SW10SW7S5
1 day agoS7S9S8S11SW9SW5SE8S11SE5SE8SE7SE7SW9S8S6S5S8SW9SW8S5SW7S13S9S10
2 days agoS12S9S6S10SE8S8S11S8S5SE9S6S6S12S15S14S10S10S8S8S14S8S7S9SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Morrison Street Bridge, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns, Willamette River, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.