Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, OR
December 7, 2024 10:25 PM PST (06:25 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:36 AM Sunset 4:32 PM Moonrise 12:27 PM Moonset 11:25 PM |
PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog and a chance of showers in the morning, then areas of dense fog in the afternoon.
Tonight - N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Wed - N wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the morning.
Wed night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu - SE wind 5 kt, veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the W at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 3 ft.
Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 215 Pm Pst Sat Dec 7 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Post frontal conditions with a westerly swell. Winds gusting to 30 kt will ease overnight as seas build. Showers to persist through Sunday. Steep seas with a long period swell will increase chances for hazardous seas on Sunday. Note the winds may still be locally high. High pressure begins to build in early next week.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Portland, Morrison Street Bridge, Oregon, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
St. Johns, Willamette River, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS, Tide feet
Area Discussion for Portland, OR
Hide  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KPQR 080456 AAA AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 855 PM PST Sat Dec 7 2024
Updated the aviation discussion
SYNOPSIS
A robust frontal system has brought widespread precipitation back to the region today as we enter a more progressive winter-time weather pattern going forward, especially compared to last week. Expect rain below 3000 ft with accumulating snow above 3000 ft the second half of the weekend.
Then, high pressure will usher in a temporary return to dry weather and low-level offshore flow Monday through Tuesday as impacts shift back to areas of dense valley fog and cooler overnight temperatures. However, unlike our last stretch of dry weather, the high pressure quickly breaks down with chances (30-50%) for rain returning Wednesday/Wednesday night - additional rain chances the rest of the week.
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday...Current radar and satellite observations show the cold frontal boundary associated with an upper-level low off the coast of British Columbia now moving through western OR/WA bringing one final burst of stead moderate rain. Once this feature marches to our east this evening, expect a rapid transition to a cooler and showery post-frontal airmass. Snow levels likely crash to ~3000 ft tonight as a result of cold air moving in aloft - they’ve been holding around 5,000-8,000 feet so far today. Confidence continues to be high for a solid 6-10 inches of snow in the south WA/north OR Cascades above 3000-4000 feet (70-80% chance for 6 inches or more). Skiers and snowboarders rejoice! Beyond the immediate frontal passage, the period of heaviest snowfall is expected to occur late Saturday night through Sunday morning across the mountain passes. A Winter Weather Advisory for the south WA/north OR Cascades above 3000 feet remains in effect.
Further south near Santiam and Willamette passes snow amounts are expected to be lower, closer to 2-4 inches of accumulation, due to less frequent shower activity as the bulk of the energy/moisture of the upper-level low holds just to the north.
The upper-level flow will gradually gain a drier northerly component by late Sunday afternoon followed by lingering showers coming to an end Sunday evening.
From there a ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest Sunday night through Monday characterized by rapidly building heights and the lowering of a distinct subsidence inversion aloft to 1,000-2,000ft based on NAM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic model soundings. So, with ample surface moisture, calm winds, and clearer skies anticipate areas of dense fog to develop during the overnight/early morning hours, especially in the interior valleys. The greatest amount of uncertainty early next week will be whether limited daytime heating and developing offshore flow allows for entrenched valley fog/stratus to dissipate. Given the time of year thinking it’ll be tough for portions of the central and southern Willamette Valley to completely clear out - similar to last week. Thus, adjusted high temperatures a couple degrees lower in portions of the Willamette Valley Monday/Tuesday. Also be on the lookout for the temporary redevelopment of breezy easterly winds in the western Columbia River Gorge late Monday into Tuesday which should at least help the Portland/Vancouver Metro clear out.
-Schuldt
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Saturday...Ensemble guidance is generally in good agreement with regards to how the upper-level pattern will progress for the middle to end of next week but a fair amount of uncertainty is present trying to resolve the finer details. The ridge of high pressure is expected to at least flatten to start Wednesday with a broad upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska nudging southeastward. Almost all ensemble guidance show an attendant cold-frontal boundary then beginning to push either towards or into the Pacific Northwest as Wednesday progresses but many of the grand ensemble members are out of phase with the timing. Exploring the WPC cluster analysis reveals roughly 35% of ensemble members favor an earlier solution bringing precipitation to the region starting Wednesday morning, 50% delay it until Wednesday evening/night, and the final 15% hold it off to the west until Thursday morning. From there ensemble favor broad westerly flow aloft and additional weak weather disturbances the rest of the week although conditions likely stay within climatological norms for December.
-Schuldt
AVIATION
Mostly VFR conditions this evening in the wake of a front. Post frontal showers and light south winds are providing enough mixing to prevent radiation fog from forming.However there are a few pockets of IFR conditions with fog in places where clearing and light winds like the Central Oregon coast and small valleys in the coast range and foothills. Localized IFR and fog will expand the next few hours before clouds and showers increase late tonight through Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves over the area. Expect a mix of MVFR and VFR on Sunday.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with vicinity showers this evening. South winds will provide enough mixing to limit fog from forming tonight. A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS/VIS Sunday. ~TJ
MARINE
Gusty southwesterly winds today are causing winds to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels. Buoy 46089 and 46050 have gust to nearly 30 kt today while buoys closer to the shore in the north have been closer to 20 kt. These conditions will persist for the next several hours in the post frontal environment. As winds begin to decrease, seas will build to around 15 ft at 14 seconds.
There will be a steady building with some models suggesting seas near 17 ft at buoy 46029 by Sunday morning. Hazardous seas are expected through late Sunday.
As this front fully dissipates, high pressure builds in starting Monday afternoon. This ridge will cause winds to shift to the east-southeast. Areas near the coastal gaps and Columbia River Bar may experience locally elevated winds. Seas will slowly fall through this time period to near 6 ft at 12 seconds before building once again on Thursday with the approach of another system. -Muessle
BEACH HAZARDS
Starting late this evening into Sunday early morning seas will build behind the passing front. With these seas increasing to 13-15 feet and a long period 14 second swell, there is a high risk for Sneaker Waves on Sunday. These waves have the capacity to rush up further inland along beaches with a lot of power. They can easily dislodge logs, and sweep people off of their feet. Be sure to monitor the ocean swells, keep animals and children close, and be cautious if exploring jetties.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for ORZ126.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for WAZ211.
PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 855 PM PST Sat Dec 7 2024
Updated the aviation discussion
SYNOPSIS
A robust frontal system has brought widespread precipitation back to the region today as we enter a more progressive winter-time weather pattern going forward, especially compared to last week. Expect rain below 3000 ft with accumulating snow above 3000 ft the second half of the weekend.
Then, high pressure will usher in a temporary return to dry weather and low-level offshore flow Monday through Tuesday as impacts shift back to areas of dense valley fog and cooler overnight temperatures. However, unlike our last stretch of dry weather, the high pressure quickly breaks down with chances (30-50%) for rain returning Wednesday/Wednesday night - additional rain chances the rest of the week.
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday...Current radar and satellite observations show the cold frontal boundary associated with an upper-level low off the coast of British Columbia now moving through western OR/WA bringing one final burst of stead moderate rain. Once this feature marches to our east this evening, expect a rapid transition to a cooler and showery post-frontal airmass. Snow levels likely crash to ~3000 ft tonight as a result of cold air moving in aloft - they’ve been holding around 5,000-8,000 feet so far today. Confidence continues to be high for a solid 6-10 inches of snow in the south WA/north OR Cascades above 3000-4000 feet (70-80% chance for 6 inches or more). Skiers and snowboarders rejoice! Beyond the immediate frontal passage, the period of heaviest snowfall is expected to occur late Saturday night through Sunday morning across the mountain passes. A Winter Weather Advisory for the south WA/north OR Cascades above 3000 feet remains in effect.
Further south near Santiam and Willamette passes snow amounts are expected to be lower, closer to 2-4 inches of accumulation, due to less frequent shower activity as the bulk of the energy/moisture of the upper-level low holds just to the north.
The upper-level flow will gradually gain a drier northerly component by late Sunday afternoon followed by lingering showers coming to an end Sunday evening.
From there a ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest Sunday night through Monday characterized by rapidly building heights and the lowering of a distinct subsidence inversion aloft to 1,000-2,000ft based on NAM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic model soundings. So, with ample surface moisture, calm winds, and clearer skies anticipate areas of dense fog to develop during the overnight/early morning hours, especially in the interior valleys. The greatest amount of uncertainty early next week will be whether limited daytime heating and developing offshore flow allows for entrenched valley fog/stratus to dissipate. Given the time of year thinking it’ll be tough for portions of the central and southern Willamette Valley to completely clear out - similar to last week. Thus, adjusted high temperatures a couple degrees lower in portions of the Willamette Valley Monday/Tuesday. Also be on the lookout for the temporary redevelopment of breezy easterly winds in the western Columbia River Gorge late Monday into Tuesday which should at least help the Portland/Vancouver Metro clear out.
-Schuldt
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Saturday...Ensemble guidance is generally in good agreement with regards to how the upper-level pattern will progress for the middle to end of next week but a fair amount of uncertainty is present trying to resolve the finer details. The ridge of high pressure is expected to at least flatten to start Wednesday with a broad upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska nudging southeastward. Almost all ensemble guidance show an attendant cold-frontal boundary then beginning to push either towards or into the Pacific Northwest as Wednesday progresses but many of the grand ensemble members are out of phase with the timing. Exploring the WPC cluster analysis reveals roughly 35% of ensemble members favor an earlier solution bringing precipitation to the region starting Wednesday morning, 50% delay it until Wednesday evening/night, and the final 15% hold it off to the west until Thursday morning. From there ensemble favor broad westerly flow aloft and additional weak weather disturbances the rest of the week although conditions likely stay within climatological norms for December.
-Schuldt
AVIATION
Mostly VFR conditions this evening in the wake of a front. Post frontal showers and light south winds are providing enough mixing to prevent radiation fog from forming.However there are a few pockets of IFR conditions with fog in places where clearing and light winds like the Central Oregon coast and small valleys in the coast range and foothills. Localized IFR and fog will expand the next few hours before clouds and showers increase late tonight through Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves over the area. Expect a mix of MVFR and VFR on Sunday.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with vicinity showers this evening. South winds will provide enough mixing to limit fog from forming tonight. A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS/VIS Sunday. ~TJ
MARINE
Gusty southwesterly winds today are causing winds to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels. Buoy 46089 and 46050 have gust to nearly 30 kt today while buoys closer to the shore in the north have been closer to 20 kt. These conditions will persist for the next several hours in the post frontal environment. As winds begin to decrease, seas will build to around 15 ft at 14 seconds.
There will be a steady building with some models suggesting seas near 17 ft at buoy 46029 by Sunday morning. Hazardous seas are expected through late Sunday.
As this front fully dissipates, high pressure builds in starting Monday afternoon. This ridge will cause winds to shift to the east-southeast. Areas near the coastal gaps and Columbia River Bar may experience locally elevated winds. Seas will slowly fall through this time period to near 6 ft at 12 seconds before building once again on Thursday with the approach of another system. -Muessle
BEACH HAZARDS
Starting late this evening into Sunday early morning seas will build behind the passing front. With these seas increasing to 13-15 feet and a long period 14 second swell, there is a high risk for Sneaker Waves on Sunday. These waves have the capacity to rush up further inland along beaches with a lot of power. They can easily dislodge logs, and sweep people off of their feet. Be sure to monitor the ocean swells, keep animals and children close, and be cautious if exploring jetties.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for ORZ126.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for WAZ211.
PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
46278 | 48 mi | 55 min | 50°F | 8 ft | ||||
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR | 60 mi | 55 min | 30.32 | |||||
NWPO3 - Newport, OR | 61 mi | 85 min | E 1.9G | 47°F |
Wind History for No Ports station near this location
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMMV
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMMV
Wind History Graph: MMV
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Pacific Northwest
Edit Hide
Portland, OR,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE