Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:38AM||Sunset 5:11PM||Saturday January 25, 2020 12:38 PM PST (20:38 UTC)||Moonrise 8:29AM||Moonset 6:04PM||Illumination 1%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, ORHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KPQR 251802 AAA AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 1001 AM PST Sat Jan 25 2020
Updated Aviation Discussion
SYNOPSIS. Rather persistent westerly flow off the north Pacific will keep the parade of fronts moving into the Pac NW through next week. Next up will be a moderately strong low pressure tonight, bringing rain and gusty south winds tonight, especially along the coast. Front on Monday has potential for another round of heavy rain, which will push coastal rivers up to bankfull again.
SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday . Weak front has been lifting north across the region overnight. At 3 am, the back edge of steady precipitation was roughly along the Columbia River. NOAA satellite imagery showing main upper short wave over northwest Oregon and lifting into Washington state. Once this passes, will see end to the steady precipitation, with just a chance of showers for much of the region for most of the morning into the afternoon. Model isentropic lifting shifts north and east of the region by 7 am, with weak lift afterwards. So, will trend forecasts in this direction, with rain over the northern zones early this am, then a chance of showers for good part of today. Still mild, with afternoon high temperatures back into the lower to middle 50s.
Next system will be develop off the south Oregon coast later today, and staying well offshore as it lifts northward towards southern Vancouver Island tonight into early Sunday morning. Still minor differences in the models, but GFS and NAM in fairly good agreement in track and strength of the low pressure area. Generally, the low will be deepening as it moves northward, down to about 990 to 994 mb by time it is about 150 miles west of Astoria around midnight tonight. NAM bit faster on pushing the low to the north. So, will keep with a blend in the model solutions paths. Rain will spread north across the region later this afternoon into this evening as the warm front buckles north in advance of the low. But, main punch with this low will be the increasing winds tonight as the low lifts north, with the trailing cold front punching inland later this evening. Will trend towards increasing southerly winds later in the evening. Pressure gradients favor southeasterly winds until mid to late evening, then turn, with southerly winds increasing between 10 pm and 2 am. But, tightest gradients stay well offshore around the low. Still, is support for gusts of 45 to 55 mph along the coast, but as usual, the strongest will be on the coastal headlands and open beaches. Timing of strongest winds look to be from about 1 or 2 am until 7 am Sunday, then winds gradually easing.
Will have to watch the total rainfall and its effect on the coastal rivers for tonight into Sunday. Rain, then then persistent showers on Sunday over the coastal mountains could result in another 1 to 2 inches of rain for that area. Coastal rivers still not all that low after the past rains especially those on the south Wash and far north Oregon coast. Will not take much rainfall to push them back to bankfull range. The Grays, Naselle, Nehalem and Wilson Rivers are those most likely a return to bankfull levels tonight and Sunday.
Rain will transition to showers on Sunday, with decreasing showers during the day. However, another fast moving front will push another round of rain back to the region by late Sun afternoon and Sunday evening. Generally occasional light rain will continue Sunday night into Mon am. But, another strong warm front will lift north across the region on Monday. Appears this front will be another slow mover, with rain becoming heavy at times over the coastal mountains by afternoon. Precipitable water plume of 0.9 to 1.1 inches aimed at the Pac NW on Mon. Will add mention of heavy rain at times for the coast and coastal mountains for Mon afternoon. If trends continue, may need to post Flood Watch for south Washington Coast and Willapa Hills, as well as North Oregon coast for late Mon through Tue. /Rockey
LONG TERM. Monday night through Friday . Persistent valley rain and mountain snow is expected through the end of next week. Models and their ensembles are in agreement that a trough will move through the Pacific Northwest Monday night and Tuesday, bringing heavy rain to the coast and valley and snow in the Cascades. There will be a brief break from this precipitation during the day on Wednesday before the next system moves through the area Wednesday night. Precipitation will continue Thursday and Thursday night before another brief break on Friday. A zonal flow will persist through the forecast period keeping highs and low temperatures above average for this time of the year. Snow levels will be around 4500ft Mon through Wed before climbing to around 6000ft through Fri. -Thaler
AVIATION. In the postfrontal air mass expect the MVFR conditions along the coast to slowly improve towards VFR as light offshore flow develops. Coastal locations will see a return of MVFR conditions starting around 06Z to 09Z Sunday. Inland areas in general will maintain VFR conditions but expect a return of MVFR conditions stating around 09Z to 12Z Sunday. The MVFR conditions will be associated with a warm front moving across the area this evening, this front will also signal the return of precipitation to the forecast area.
Coastal sites will see southerly gusts 30 to 40 kt after 09Z Sunday.
KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mainly VFR today but expect a return of MVFR conditions along with precipitation around 11Z Sunday as a warm front moves into the area. /42
MARINE. Active weather pattern continues for the foreseeable future as a series of Pacific frontal systems move across the coastal waters. A warm front will lift north of the waters this morning with southerly winds easing. Seas around 10 to 12 ft early this morning will subside just below 10 ft by the afternoon. The next more significant front will move north through the waters tonight. The associated 995 mb low will be about 200 nm west of Astoria between 10 pm Sat and 1 am Sun as it heads toward Vancouver Island, BC. The cold front follows several hours later. Models are in general agreement on the track and strength, but differ slightly on the timing. Have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for late tonight and Sun morning. May need to extend or put another Gale Warning for Sun afternoon and evening as another quick moving low tracks further offshore. Another storm arrives Mon afternoon or evening, but confidence is low on timing and strength of winds due to large differences in models. Though it appears gale force winds are possible during that time period.
Bottom line is, with the weather pattern remaining active well into next week, we expect generally rough conditions on the Pac NW waters for at least next several days. /mh Weagle
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.
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This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR||45 mi||57 min||51°F||1018.1 hPa|
|SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR||60 mi||57 min||ESE 4.1 G 5.1||52°F||51°F||1017.6 hPa|
|NWPO3 - Newport, OR||61 mi||39 min||SE 2.9 G 4.1||53°F|
Wind History for Garibaldi, OR(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR||4 mi||46 min||S 5||10.00 mi||Fair||53°F||45°F||74%||1017.6 hPa|
|Salem - McNary Field, OR||22 mi||1.7 hrs||S 10||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||54°F||46°F||77%||1017.8 hPa|
|Aurora State Airport, OR||23 mi||46 min||WSW 6||10.00 mi||Overcast||55°F||45°F||69%||1018 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KMMV
Wind History from MMV (wind in knots)
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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