Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McMinnville, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:29PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 4:38 AM PDT (11:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:47PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:201910152330;;737736 Fzus56 Kpqr 150930 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 230 Am Pdt Tue Oct 15 2019 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-152330- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 230 Am Pdt Tue Oct 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am pdt this morning through this evening...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..S wind to 10 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt by the afternoon. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds, becoming 7 ft at 6 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 30 kt, becoming 35 kt by midnight. Combined seas 13 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 14 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 13 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..SW wind to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 17 ft at 15 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..SW wind to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 16 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 15 ft.
Sat..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 12 ft.
PZZ200 230 Am Pdt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. The first in a series of fronts will move over the waters this afternoon and tonight. A second, stronger front, follows Wednesday. The active weather pattern then continues through the latter half of the week and into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, OR
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location: 45.21, -123.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 151039
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
338 am pdt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis Much of today will be dry across southwest washington and
northwest oregon as high pressure lingers and slides east of the
cascades. The dry weather will come to an abrupt end tonight and
Wednesday as the first in a series of several frontal systems moves
onshore, spreading rain and locally breezy conditions across the
forecast area. Active pattern will persist through the upcoming
weekend, with periods of rain and occasionally breezy conditions
across much of the pacific northwest.

Short term Today through Thursday... High pressure is in the
process of moving east of the cascades early this morning, allowing
modest offshore flow to develop mainly through the columbia river
gorge. The departing high pressure and offshore flow should keep the
forecast area mostly dry with seasonable temperatures today, but big
changes are brewing offshore as the first in a long series of frontal
systems expected to impact the pac NW approaches. This will mark the
beginning of a prolonged period of active and wet weather that should
last through the upcoming weekend.

The first front has access to subtropical moisture, with NESDIS total
precipitable water (tpw) imagery suggesting a plume of tpw over 1.25"
streaming NE from hawaii to near 50n 130w, with the deepest moisture
axis approaching 1.50" tpw along and just ahead of the front.

Initially, this atmospheric river looks to focus on vancouver island
today as weak waves of low pressure develop along the front and slow
it down. However, a strong and zonal north pacific jet stream near
150 kt has developed south pf the aleutians and will eventually push
the frontal zone onshore tonight and early Wednesday, with a second
cold front following right on its heels later Wednesday. A second
impulse of moisture, this time partially taken from the remnants of
typhoon hagibis, will become incorporated into one or both of the
fronts while it pushes across SW washington NW oregon Wednesday.

This could lead to two rounds of intense, but brief rounds of
rainfall spreading east across the forecast area Wednesday into early
Wednesday evening.

Models show a decent southwesterly low-level jet of 35-45 kt
developing along and ahead of the frontal zone while it moves
onshore; this should provide significant orographic enhancement of
rainfall for the coast range and cascade foothills. Overall, much of
our coast and higher terrain, except perhaps the lane county
cascades, stand to see 0.75 to 2 inches of rain by early Thursday
morning. Some spots especially prone to enhancement from s-sw flow,
such as the willapa hills and S wa cascade foothills, could receive
as much as 3 inches. Amounts will be considerably lighter for the
inland valleys, where only 0.25 to 0.75 inch is expected due to the
fast-moving nature of the frontal system(s) Wednesday.

Winds will be significant along the coast, but probably not to the
point of necessitating a high wind warning. Initially, coastal
communities will not feel much wind due to easterly pressure
gradients keeping the strongest wind offshore. However, by Wednesday
morning the stronger winds should begin affecting the beaches and
headlands with gusts 35-45 mph and local gusts perhaps up to 50 mph.

As the frontal zone moves onshore, a brief burst of stronger gusts
25-35 mph will push inland, affecting coastal communities and
possibly inland areas as well.

Southerly pressure gradients open up behind the front Wednesday night
and Thursday, leading to cool and blustery conditions with gusts
25-35 mph likely for much of the forecast area. Meanwhile, cool air
aloft will lead to marginally unstable conditions, so there should be
plenty of showers Wed night thu. With fairly strong low-level winds
veering with height and modest instability coming into play, will
need to watch for the potential of rotating cells Thursday afternoon
which may produce waterspouts near the coast and a couple funnel
clouds inland if low-level lapse rates are sufficient. Research
suggests we have entered our peak coastal waterspout tornado season,
which runs from sep 15 to dec 31, and this is the type of pattern
that can produce them. weagle

Long term Thursday night through Monday. If the forecast seems
fairly similar each day for the short term period, then the long term
period will likely begin with more of the same. Guidance continues to
suggest a fairly wet week as a series of disturbances will enhance
showers at times in the moist mid and upper level flow. This will
generally result in the highest amounts of precipitation in the
terrain of the coast range and cascades, but with each round of
enhancement, there will be the potential for stronger periods of
rain. Given the potential rainfall through the rest of this week,
will need to monitor both potential rainfall amounts and how much of
a break there is between each round of rain, as this will be
important in determining what, if any, hydrologic issues may develop.

One other note is that a slight chance of thunderstorms was
introduced into the forecast both Thursday evening and Friday
afternoon evening, with forecast model soundings suggesting decent
instability each day. The timing of each upper level disturbance, and
the resulting cold pool aloft, moving across the region may
significantly alter these chances in the coming days but there was
enough of a signal in the guidance to include at this time.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain rather steady-state during the
long term period, not fluctuating by more than a couple of degrees as
this wet pattern remains persistent through the period. Cullen

Aviation PredominantVFR across the forecast area as of 09z.

Patchy lifr noted in the south willamette valley, particularly
k77s. Also, ifr to lifr stratus along the south oregon coastline
to near koth. The 00z href shows this stratus pushing north to
konp by about 15z. Meanwhile, an advancing frontal system will
likely result in MVFR conditions developing along the north
oregon and south washington coast late this morning. Cannot rule
out localized ifr or worse conditions in the interior valleys in
through 18z, but thickening high cloud cover may be a limiting
factor. Expect MVFR along the coast this afternoon through
tonight. Inland areas to improve or remainVFR 18z today through
tue night.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR at the terminal and vicinity at 09z and
this to continue through Tue night. Cannot rule out localized ifr
or worse conditions through 17z, primarily in the tualatin river
valley. Kttd-kdls gradient expected to peak near -4 mb this
morning, for gusts 20-25 kt at kttd. Weishaar

Marine Major pattern change in store for the coastal waters
beginning today. A frontal system near 130w early this morning
will continue to march east today and tonight. The frontal speed
will slow as it moves inside 125w and become more parallel to the
mid and upper level flow. Expect small craft advisory level wind
speeds to develop in the outer waters around sunrise and spread
to the inner waters mid to late morning. Most, if not all, high-
resolution guidance in good agreement indicating 25-30 kt
boundary layer wind speeds in most of the waters by tue
afternoon.

Models have been consistent suggesting gale force gusts
developing over the outer waters late Tue afternoon or early
evening. Will go ahead and issue a gale warning for the outer
waters valid 02z Wed through 00z Thu and for the inner waters 06z
wed through 00z thu. It appears the peak wind period will be wed
morning through mid-afternoon. Still looking at 25-30 kt gusts
wed evening through Thu evening. Longer range operational models
show more variance late this week through the weekend and have
gone with a blended approach for wind speeds.

Seas will begin to build this afternoon and continue to amplify
through thu. Peak wave heights will be near 20 ft late Wed night
through thu. Forecast periods are such that high surf conditions
could be met. Seas to remain in the teens Thu night through at
least Sat night. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 7 pm pdt this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 5 pm pdt Wednesday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from
10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm pdt this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 10 nm.

Gale warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 pm pdt Wednesday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 45 mi57 min 54°F1015 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 60 mi57 min ESE 5.1 G 6 47°F 50°F1014.8 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 61 mi39 min ESE 5.1 G 6 50°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR4 mi46 minNW 310.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1015.6 hPa
Salem - McNary Field, OR22 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair41°F37°F89%1015.4 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair41°F39°F93%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMMV

Wind History from MMV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmSW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmN3CalmNW3CalmW3CalmNW3----CalmNW3
1 day agoCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmN8NW7N5NW6CalmW3CalmCalmN3N3CalmNW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Morrison Street Bridge, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns, Willamette River, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.