SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging just upstream at this early hour shifts overhead through the day today before ever so slowly beginning to push off to the east tonight. Surface high pressure over southern Ontario gradually centers over the Northeast states today with little further progress through the remainder of short term forecast period.

Forecast Details: Just some wisps of high cloud out there early this morning with a few patches of fog in the typically prone areas.
Another day ahead with mostly sunny skies with just a few inland cu developing and occasional high clouds continuing to pass overhead.
Some upper-level smoke progged to remain as well, most concentrated over the northeastern half of the forecast area. Otherwise, aforementioned ridge overhead and southwest winds will aid to boost temperatures another handful of degrees over yesterday's highs. Lots of mid-80s across northern lower with some upper 80s a decent bet in downsloping locales near TVC and across sections of northeast lower. A touch cooler in the U.P. -- mainly upper 70s to low 80s.

Mainly clear skies for much of the night ahead with potential for some localized/patchy fog once again. More high clouds are expected to begin to spread in from the southwest after 06-08z, perhaps limiting fog chances thereafter. Lows ranging from the mid-50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Southwest flow aloft, not particularly strong, takes hold early next week with an embedded disturbance or two rotating around the Upper Midwest-Great Lakes. An unstable environment along with this disturbance will facilitate shower and thunderstorm development Monday and Tuesday. Mid to late week revolves around building heights aloft and a disturbance attempting to undercut the ridge.
This may keep a chance for showers/storms through the end of the week, if the disturbance is not too far south/weak and inconsequential.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Pretty moist low levels coupled with decreasing heights/temperatures aloft will result in a modest amount of instability early next week (Mon into Tues). An approaching disturbance will aid in kicking off showers and thunderstorms both afternoons. Wind fields, however, not all that impressive with ~15-25kts of bulk shear (0-6), and similar EBWD values. Thus, do not see this as a substantial severe threat, more like an isolated, rogue instance or two. Nevertheless, could still see gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.
Disturbance and frontal boundary will move through Tuesday, shifting winds to more westerly and perhaps resulting in a "slightly cooler" day (low to mid 80s) when compared to the rest of the week.

Building heights will result in very warm temperatures through much of the rest of next week (mid-upper 80s in the current fcst). Will be a feature that tries to impact N MI late next week with lingering low level moisture. Thus, shower and storm potential will be possible once again as hinted at by ENS guidance in the Thurs-Fri time frame, as long as the feature is not too far south as some deterministic guidance suggests. No other significant weather hazards during this period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 522 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Any lingering morning patchy fog burns off quickly. VFR conditions expected today with just a few diurnally driven cu and passing high clouds around at times. Upper-level smoke likely to be apparent again today as well. Otherwise, southwest winds become light again tonight with at least low potential for some patchy fog in the typically prone areas (CIU/PLN/MBL)
once again.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.