Monday, July22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:22PM Monday July 22, 2019 7:22 PM EDT (23:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:25PMMoonset 10:43AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 401 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019
Through early evening..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy early then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201907230400;;471763 FZUS53 KAPX 222001 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 401 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-230400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City city, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221922
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
322 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 322 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019

Quiet and cool-ish...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: composite analysis reveals parent upper
level low over northern quebec with broad deepening troughiness
down into the great lakes. A couple of short-wave impulses of note
rotating down around the parent low. Lead feature is sliding out
of northern lake huron into southern quebec on the tail end of of
an upper jet that extends across new england. Second feature of
note is rotating south-southeastward down through western ontario
with a small batch of enhanced clouds showers and even some
lightning heading this way.

Earlier batch of thick mid cloud cover associated with the lead
feature has exited the forecast area to the east. Just some
heating of the day cloud cover around at this juncture, most
pronounced through the southern half of the forecast area.

Primary forecast concerns: minimal.

Much of tonight will be quiet with diminishing winds and diurnal
cloud cover. Secondary short-wave impulse will be making inroads
into northern michigan during the overnight period bringing
another increase in lower-mid cloud particularly toward morning.

Forcing is not particularly impressive. However, there is a nice
pocket of cooling aloft and instability (per SPC full sector
mesoanalysis) sliding southward with the wave producing those
showers thunder up that way. Pocket of instability is slated to
slide down through the region later overnight through Tuesday (see
below) and and may bring some showers with it. Recent high-
resolution guidance has backed off on precip potential just a
bit... But I plan to keep some low end pops going in eastern upper
michigan for the late overnight hours.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 322 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019
high impact weather potential: low
primary concerns: shower thunder chances Tuesday
synopsis:
the upper-level trough centered over the great lakes will lift into
new england quebec through Wednesday night as surface high pressure
builds across the central CONUS underneath subsidence aloft. The
placement between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the
west, along with the ridge-trough inflection located overhead, will
bring north northwesterly winds throughout the vertical profile for
the majority of the forecast period. Off to the west, a cyclone is
expected to form intensify in alberta as an approaching shortwave
provides ample upper-level divergence to produce pressure falls in
lee of the rockies.

Forecast:
the main focus for the period will be rain thunder chances Tuesday.

A subtle shortwave embedded in the longwave trough over the great
lakes could provide enough support for development across northern
michigan during the late morning early afternoon hours. While severe
storms aren't expected as marginal instability (around 500 j kg
mlcape) and weak shear (less than 30 kts bulk shear) should be
present, a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, the aforementioned winds will keep conditions cooler and
less humid than the previous week. High temps in the mid-70s Tuesday
are forecast a few degrees below average before more seasonable
highs around 80 return to the area Wednesday. After the rain chances
on Tuesday, sunny skies are expected to move in for the remainder of
the period.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 322 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019
high impact weather: low so far.

Primary concerns: rain thunder chances return this weekend.

The upper-level pattern across the CONUS becomes less amplified
heading into the weekend as a shortwave progresses eastward into the
great lakes late Friday early Saturday, bringing the next
rain thunder chances to the area. Precip chances continue through
the weekend as subtle waves in the main flow could provide support
for storms. Aside from rain chances, high temps are expected to be
in the mid-80s across northern michigan throughout the forecast
period. Mostly sunny skies are likely to end the workweek as partly
to mostly cloudy skies take over during the weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1211 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019
high pressure building across the northern lakes region will
provide solidVFR weather to northern michigan today and tonight.

Gusty NW to N winds will persist through the afternoon before
diminishing a bit tonight.

On Tuesday, a weak wave of low pressure will slide down through
the region. Enough forcing to perhaps bring some showers down
through the region (small pocket of lightning strikes evident in
manitoba into ontario with this feature today). OverallVFR
persists, but there will be another pocket of thicker mid cloud
(and possible showers) moving through the region.

Marine
Issued at 322 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019
gustier north to northwest winds will persist through tonight
before diminishing heading into Tuesday. Low end small craft
advisories will remain intact for the saint marys and the northern
part of lake huron. Weaker winds are expected Tuesday although
still with some gustiness. Winds diminish in earnest Tuesday night
and going into Wednesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for lhz346>348.

Lm... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for lsz322.

Near term... Ba
short term... Ba djc
long term... Djc
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 14 mi33 min W 14 G 18 68°F 67°F2 ft1017.1 hPa60°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi53 min WNW 12 G 18 73°F 68°F1016 hPa
45175 44 mi34 min NW 12 G 18 70°F 67°F2 ft1016 hPa60°F
WSLM4 44 mi113 min WSW 17 69°F 65°F1016.4 hPa51°F
45183 46 mi53 min W 9.7 G 12 70°F 68°F1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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N14
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G25
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G28
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi28 minW 1110.00 miFair73°F52°F48%1017.6 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi25 minW 510.00 miFair70°F56°F62%1016.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi27 minWNW 510.00 miFair75°F49°F41%1016.6 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi30 minWNW 9 G 1710.00 miFair71°F46°F41%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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N6N8N5NW8N8
G14
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G14
N8N11
G14
N10N10NW6NW9NW7W7W7W8W10W11W9
1 day agoW3CalmCalmW3W6SW4SW3W3W3W4W5W6NW6NW4CalmW5NW7W9W8W8W8W8NW5N8
2 days agoNW5CalmCalmCalmSE4SW5SE22
G28
S4W9N3CalmSW8SW6W6SW7W10SW12
G17
SW8
G16
W11W18
G21
NE3N4S3NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.