Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 9:34PM Sunday July 5, 2020 10:19 PM EDT (02:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:19PMMoonset 5:11AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 943 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Overnight..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202007060945;;384885 FZUS53 KAPX 060143 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 943 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-060945-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City city, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 060149 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 949 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 949 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Overall surface high pressure and pronounced upper level ridging remains over much of the Great Lakes region late this evening. Scattered convection that developed across portions of inland Northern Lower Michigan this afternoon has dissipated with loss of diurnal instability and the demise of lake breeze boundaries. Clear skies have returned to our entire CWA at this hour . and will remain generally clear overnight . aside from some upstream cirrus drifting overhead. Overnight lows will cool in the lower to mid 60s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Monday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

. More of the same .

High impact weather potential: Minimal. Maybe an isolated non-severe thunderstorm at times?

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Essentially status-quo across the northern Great Lakes with elevated mid level heights and downstairs heat dome remaining in complete control of our weather. However, unlike the last few days, subtle cooling aloft and just a bit better near surface moisture has resulted in more substantial cumulus development, with even a few showers attempting to develop across interior areas.

Apex of mid level ridge drifts overhead tonight into Monday, keeping the very warm conditions going. Another round of diurnally-driven instability and organizing lake breezes set to bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends and addressing isolated shower/storm potential at times.

Details:

Expect any shower and thunderstorms this afternoon to quickly fade early this evening as instability is lost. Dry and mild conditions expected during the overnight hours under clear to partly cloudy skies. Couple factors coming together on Monday to perhaps drive the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms. Initial focus will be across eastern upper Michigan with some indication of a convectively enhanced perturbation making a run into that area as quickly as Monday morning, bringing at least the threat for a few showers along with it. Expect nearly a carbon copy of today for areas south of the Big Bridge, with lake breeze and terrain enhanced convergence working over an increasingly unstable airmass during the afternoon. Gotta believe a few showers and thunderstorms will again develop, with main focus across interior northeast lower Michigan. Would definitely like to stress again that most areas will remain dry, especially so across northwest lower Michgian where weak background west flow will punt Lake Michigan stable layer quickly inland. No severe weather expected, but any storms will be capable of producing brief periods of heavy rain. Another very warm northern Michigan summer day, with highs back into the upper 80s to middle 90s.

SHORT TERM. (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

High impact weather potential: Diurnally driven isolated showers/ storms possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Amplified upper-level ridging across the Great Lakes this weekend gradually becomes at least briefly flattened as we head through the early-midweek time frame as a weak shortwave treks by to our north. None the less, light southerly flow will aid in bringing continued above normal temperatures to northern Michigan, along with weak moisture advection that in the presence of localized forcing along afternoon lake breezes (and larger scale weak synoptic support from the aforementioned shortwave to our north) may be enough to pop a few showers/storms at times, mainly across interior northern lower and eastern upper.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperatures and low PoPs for diurnally driven showers/storm chances.

Starting off Monday night, any diurnally driven shower chances should rapidly diminish will the loss of daytime heating leaving partly clear skies overnight, and muggy conditions with low temperatures only falling into the mid-upper 60s area-wide. The exception to this may be across eastern upper where slightly better large scale forcing may be present as the mid-level wave passes from near International Falls to north of Lake Superior. Will have some chance PoPs continuing across that region overnight, but still not expecting much in the way of appreciable QPF.

Another hot day expected Tuesday with high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s once again. Latest trends suggest a weak "cold" front (hardly can call it a cold front considering its minimal affect on temps) will pass northwest to southeast during the day Tuesday, attendant to the wave aloft that's progged to be well to our northeast by midday Tuesday. This combined with expected afternoon lake breeze development may once again prove to be enough to pick off a few showers and/or storms, primarily across interior locales. Once again, expecting most will stay dry and those that do see rain will be hard-pressed for any meaningful QPF.

Similar story anticipated Wednesday, although moisture progs look a bit more paltry than Tuesday, so confidence is fairly low at this time for the development of isolated showers/storms. Otherwise, hot temperatures continue. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

High impact weather potential: Occasional chances for isolated showers/storms in continued heat.

At least some semblance of upper-level ridging remains anchored across the midsection of the CONUS through at least Thursday with continued heat and mugginess. Highs in the 90s will be common across many areas, save for nearest the Great Lakes shorelines and across portions of eastern upper. The non-zero, mainly afternoon shower/storm threat remains nearly each day, but as has been the trend - expecting very few locations to see anything in the way of meaningful rainfall. Long range guidance in fairly decent agreement that by Friday into the weekend, mid-upper level troughing eventually prevails across the Great Lakes region. Lots of uncertainties regarding attendant precip chances given what continues to look like a lack of moisture. Perhaps of a bit of more certainty is "cooler" temperatures as daytime highs by Friday into the weekend look to range through the 80s for most locations.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Persistent high pressure and upper level ridging will hold over Lower Michigan tonight into Monday. Residual showers and storms across interior sections of Northern Lower Michigan will continue to die with sunset . leaving mainly clear skies and VFR conditions thru the rest of tonight. Mainly interior sections of Northern Lower Michigan will once again see a chance of showers and storms during Monday afternoon/early evening as daytime instability and lake breezes interact . but most of our TAF sites should remain generally dry with VFR conditions thru Monday evening. Light/variable winds tonight will again lead to lake breeze development on Monday.

MARINE. Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Very warm temperatures will continue to produce a very stable over-water environment, resulting in light winds and limited wave action on the big waters for at least the next several days. Mainly dry weather will continue, with perhaps some increasing shower and thunderstorm chances as we head toward the middle and later portions of the week.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi40 min E 1.9 G 2.9 83°F 1014.6 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi50 min NNE 1 G 1 75°F 72°F1014.1 hPa65°F
45175 44 mi21 min N 1.9 G 1.9 74°F 72°F1015 hPa62°F
45183 46 mi20 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 75°F 73°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair73°F64°F74%1014.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair73°F70°F94%1014.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair73°F65°F79%1014.9 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair73°F63°F71%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmE3SE3E3CalmCalmN4N5NW4N6N5N6N5NE3E4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3E5E5E3E5N6N5NW6N5N8N4N5N3E3
2 days agoW5W5W4SW4SW3W4W4W3CalmSW3W6W7NW8NW5N5NW4NW7NW6NW6NW4W4NW6W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.