Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 4:24 PM   Moonset 4:37 AM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1050 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
Today - West wind 10 to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers in the late morning, then isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - West wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Sunday - West wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Sunday night - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 201458 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1058 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger Monday.

- Showers likely Monday night into Tuesday.

UPDATE
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

No big changes to the ongoing forecast. Did increase cloud cover and allow for isolated to scattered snow showers all day. Looks cold enough for precipitation to fall as all snow/graupel.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing centered over the Great Lakes/southeast Canada will continue to pivot eastward today as the associated surface cyclone treks far to our northeast across Quebec. A second strong trough looks to dig south across Canada towards the region tonight.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds across the heart of the CONUS today, nosing into the region heading into Sunday.

Forecast Details:

Similar weather to yesterday is expected across northern Michigan again today. Persistent west-northwest winds on the backside of low pressure will remain breezy, gusting between 20-30 mph at times through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture will remain in place to support isolated to scattered rain/snow showers this morning into this evening.
Light snow is mostly likely across the eastern U.P. and higher elevations of northern lower where temperatures look to stay close to freezing under falling precip. Very little to no accumulation is expected. Otherwise, clearing cloud cover is expected later today into tonight with overnight lows expected to drop well into the 20s for those away from the immediate lakeshore.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low passes well to the north of the Canadian border Sunday resulting in a wind shift across northern Michigan and breezy conditions. Zonal flow aloft takes hold early this week in addition to a return to southwest sfc winds. Next trough and subsequent sfc low pressure system will swing through on Tuesday producing predominantly rain showers across the area and additional breezy winds. Heights aloft rise towards late week with warming temperatures and dry conditions.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy will pass to the north of northern Michigan on Sunday resulting in a wind shift to the northwest and breezy conditions during the daytime hours. Boundary layer heights approach ~5-7K+ ft AGL and mix into 25 to 30 kts through the column, thus, a breezy day will be on tap for the region (gusts generally 25 to 35 mph). Based on recent past, these types of setups have resulted in quicker low level drying and thus lower relative humidities that modeled. Thus, blended in some NBM10th percentile. Interior and southeast portions of northern Michigan could see elevated fire weather conditions, thus outdoor burning will not be recommended.

Next piece of energy and low pressure system will approach the region Tuesday resulting in largely rain showers across the region.
Hints of a little instability possible in some of the guidance as the low pressure system tracks generally to the north of the area, so slight chance for a few thunder-storms/showers. Nevertheless, probs for 0.5" of precip are quite low on the GEPS/EPS for this event (leaning towards the upper level pattern evolution within this guidance) thus not too terribly impactful in regards to the heavy rain threat. Anticipate some breezy to windy conditions as well with this system mid week with temperatures in the 40s most locations Wednesday.

After a cooler mid week, temperatures rebound quite nicely to close out the work week. Heights aloft will begin to rise, thus fostering a quick rebound in temperatures (from the 40s Wednesday to the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday). Expecting largely dry conditions during this time but more active weather is likely shortly thereafter.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the duration of the issuance period. Low VFR CIGs are likely across the eastern U.P. and interior northern lower through this afternoon as cloud clover gradually scatters out through the day. Clear skies are in store for tonight. West winds around 10 kts with gusts around 20- 25 kts are also expected through this afternoon before weakening this evening. Scattered light rain/snow showers will work across the area into tonight, but are not expected to impact TAF sites with lowered VSBYs at this time.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.

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