Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:07PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 10:58 AM EST (15:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:27AMMoonset 1:23PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 429 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..Light winds becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the morning, then rising to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the late morning. Snow early in the morning, then slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 4 to 6 feet in the morning.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Freezing spray and patchy blowing snow. Numerous snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Freezing spray. Scattered snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202002181700;;716602 FZUS53 KAPX 180929 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 429 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-181700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City city, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 181143 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 643 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 417 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Just noted a couple of lightning strikes in Mecosta and Osceola counties in the last hour . associated with the more convective precip coming up from the south. Might have to add thunder to the forecast for some of the southern counties if that continues. Been a while since we've had thundersnow .

NEAR TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 333 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

. Heavier snowfall slides through early this morning, lake effect snow showers later today and tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: Moderate to heavy snow will lead to hazardous travel this morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Per overnight satellite imagery, prominent short-wave center is working E/NE through south-central Wisconsin. Attending surface low pressure is crossing south-central Lake Michigan making a beeline toward the central coast of Lower Michigan. Took awhile, but strong warm advection forcing ahead of the low was finally able to blossom some heavier snowfall up into the region during the overnight hours . with some definitive mesoscale enhanced banding embedded within the larger scale precip pattern (indicative of reduced stability aloft). So despite a slower start, we've been able to rack up a few to several inches of snow overnight.

Meanwhile, well defined deformation axis continues to emerge along the north side of the low . stretching back into central Wisconsin and beginning to pivot/slided up across the region. South of that axis, precip character turns more convective down into central and southern Lower Michigan with a nice area of steeper mid level lapse rates lifting up through Lower Michigan.

Short-wave will advance into and across northern Lower Michigan this morning as attending surface low tracks from near Ludington northeastward into northern Lake Huron by mid-late morning. Deformation axis and associated widespread heavier snowfall will slide across the northern half of the CWA through early-mid morning. Precip will be a bit more convective across the southern counties

Primary Forecast Concerns: Moderate to heavy snow potential and ongoing headlines.

Details: At this juncture, we still have a several more hours of heavier snowfall to work across the northern half of the CWA, as deformation/"wrap-around" axis pivots up and through the region. Latest hi-res guidance suggest synoptic snowfall will diminish across the region between 12Z and 15Z with some lake enhancement lingering across eastern upper and NW Lower Michigan into the afternoon So. not planning on making any changes to the going headlines at this point. I may be able to trim out the southern counties around or a little after 7 AM but will cross that bridge when we get there.

Another push of colder air is on tap tonight as arctic boundary slips down through the region this evening and H8 temps fall to between neg 18C and neg 22C. This will bring NW flow lake effect snows to the snowbelts tonight. BufKit forecast soundings turn rather impressive tonight off Lake Superior with inversion heights climbing to over 8K feet and lake induced CAPE values climb to over 600 J/KG (Extreme in BufKit world). Lake effect conditions are not quite as impressive south of the bridge . lower inversions/reduced CAPE. But we will see widespread snow showers and accumulating snow. Looking like we will need another round of winter weather advisories for lake effect snow tonight with the combination of accumulating snow, gusty winds and some blowing snow . particularly for a chunk of eastern Upper Michigan. But, will leave that to the day shift to assess.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

. Lake Effect Chances Continue .

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating Lake Effect

Synopsis: The current shortwave and low pressure system over the upper Great Lakes will move off to the northeast through Tuesday, with cold air funneling in on northwest winds on the backside. Another wave pivots through central Ontario through Tuesday, with another more elongated wave sliding south through the Rockies near the U.S.-Canadian border. This last wave in the series provides another uptick in lake effect chances on Wednesday night. Then heights start to rebound and drier air moves in on Thursday. This timeframe overall will have good lake effect chances.

A weak frontal boundary near the straits early on Wednesday will aid snowfall production. The favorable lake effect environment continues (from Tuesday night's environment) with deltaT's remaining near or above 20 C, ample mid-level moisture, and 4 kft inversion heights. One hindrance to really beefy lake effect Wednesday morning and afternoon may be a moderately dry surface layer on the northeast fringes of strong high pressure in the midwest. This would mainly affect nrn lower, as ern upper is further removed from this influence and hangs on to better moisture. Although low level winds will be weaker than on Tuesday, the unidirectional nature will help organize bands across both lake Michigan and Superior. Wind speeds in the mid teens over mostly open water should be enough to continue the moisture/heat flux off the lakes, supporting healthy lake effect. The last in a series of waves rotating around parent Hudson Bay troughing will cross our area Wednesday night, probably slightly enhancing the lake effect. Thursday will still see some flurries or maybe light snow near the lake Michgian coast, but intensity and coverage continue to diminish after the morning. The low and mid levels really dry out later Thursday, with decreasing clouds.

Lake effect snow amounts: Such a prolonged period of northwest flow, cold temperatures and open lakes will set the stage for NW-flow areas to receive some decent amounts by Thursday morning. This is especially true in western sections of Chippewa/Mackinac counties where inversion heights Wednesday morning will still be at least 5 kft. Through the 48-hr period ending Thursday morning, some areas may receive amounts on the order of 4 to 6" . with the highest amounts near Whitefish Bay. However no individual 12-hour period looks overly impressive with amounts generally staying under 3".

High temperatures will be hampered by cold air as it settles across the area, with highs some 10 degrees below normal, mainly near 20.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 333 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: None for now.

The pattern changes Friday through the weekend as upper level ridging (that was along the west coast) shifts east, allowing heights to rise and a generally tranquil weather period for us. This brings much warmer temperatures as we get into southerly return flow as the surface high slides into the southern Ohio Valley. High temperatures in the upper 30s will be common through the weekend and beyond, with some locations getting near or above 40 degrees.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 643 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Low pressure system is tracking through central/northern Lower Michigan early this morning and will exit across northern Lake Huron in the next few hours. Widespread snowfall along and north of the low center track will diminish by 15Z, but with some lake enhanced snow showers developing off Lake Michigan heading into the afternoon. IFR conditions will persist this morning, giving way to MVFR weather this afternoon (APN may turn VFR).

Lake snow showers increase in the snowbelts tonight.

Lighter winds this morning will turn west/northwest this morning and become gusty through the afternoon and into tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 333 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Stronger SE winds early this morning will weaken and turn northwest later this morning and this afternoon, as surface low pressure tracks across central Lower Michigan. Gusts increase this afternoon and may lead to a period of low end gale gusts along the Lake Huron shore and into the lake from east of the Straits to Presque Isle Light. Plan on hoisting a gale warning accordingly.

Winds gradually diminish tonight into Wednesday. But small craft advisories will probably needed for some nearshore areas through Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ020- 025>027-031>036-041-042. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon EST today for MIZ016>018- 021>024-028>030-086>088-095-096-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ349. GALE WARNING from noon today to 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ347-348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345-346. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . BA MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi78 min WNW 24 G 30 32°F 1009.8 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi64 min 27°F 33°F1005.5 hPa26°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi4.4 hrsN 01.00 miSnow30°F28°F94%1005.4 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi4.4 hrsNE 32.50 miLight Snow28°F28°F100%1004.7 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi4.4 hrsN 02.50 miLight Snow31°F29°F92%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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E8E8E6E9E10E8E4E3CalmCalm
1 day agoNW9
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NW7NW7NW5NW8W7NW7NW8NW5NW6NW6NW5N6------E4SE4SE5E4SE4SE5
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.