Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boyne City, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: ~996mb low pressure is currently situated over Lake Superior/northern Ontario. Plenty of convection across parts of eastern WI, central/eastern U.P. and northern Lake Michigan out ahead of the system's cold front. Primary focus revolves around the next 6 or so hours as convection, albeit weakening, crosses northern Michigan with the trailing cold front clearing area-wide later this morning. Higher surface pressures build in from the west through the remainder of the day with high pressure becoming centered squarely overhead by 12z Wednesday.

Forecast Details: Quite the mild and windy night out there tonight with many areas across downsloping northwest lower still in the 70s at this early hour (78! at TVC). Latest trends continue to support ongoing convection across parts of eastern upper, northern Lake MI, far northwest lower and points upstream to make a run across across much of northern MI over the next several of hours. Noted diminishing trend over the last couple of hours on KAPX/KMQT/KGRB with latest suite of short term guidance continuing this trend as precip rolls across northern MI. THat said, some enhanced gustiness out ahead of this convection along the gusty front and certainly still some rumbles of thunder anticipated as decaying axis of instability folds across the forecast area. While chances for severe storms appear to be diminishing, they're certainly not zero. Any stronger storms that do develop will still be capable of all hazards simply given shear parameters. 925mb winds on the order of ~70 kts, 0-6km bulk shear values up over 50 kts with sfc-1km SRH nearly 300 m2/s2 and sfc-3km >400 m2/s2. The bulk of this threat is expected to be east of the area by 11-12z, however, the lagging cold front remains several hours behind. Additional isolated to scattered storms will remain possible ahead of the front, primarily northeast lower, through the late morning time frame with a continued low-end severe threat.

Quite the change anticipated for the second half of the day into tonight. Continued gusty winds turn out of the west post fropa and eventually northwest by late afternoon. Much colder temperatures to be ushered in (upper 30s and low 40s by late afternoon across much of eastern upper and northwest lower) with those gusty northwest winds leading to sub-freezing wind chills. Some light showers/patchy drizzle possible as well. Winds relax considerably this evening before turning calm in many areas after midnight. Clearing/clear skies and light winds should lead to excellent radiational cooling with lows tonight falling in the 20s across much of northern MI.
While the forecast won't reflect as such, there are even some low probabilities of localized teens showing up for the typically cooler/interior/icebox locales.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

High pressure holds through Wednesday evening leading to abundant sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Increasing clouds overnight Wednesday with showers expected to arrive Thursday morning as an area of low pressure moves up from the southwest. Showers continue through the day on into Thursday night with chances for showers on Friday as an upper level trough sits over the region. Temperatures are expected to be on the cool side. Increasing ridging at the surface and aloft this weekend with the ridge holding into early next week. Warming temperatures are expected as a result along with precipitation free conditions. This should make it feel and look more like true spring with flowers emerging and trees beginning to burst out in blossoms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Still expecting upstream showers and thunderstorms to move west to east across the area early this morning. Uncertainty remains, both with regards to overall coverage and intensity of these storms. If storms remain organized, a few may contain very gusty winds and some hail. Shower threat continues into today, with again perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms. Gradual improvement expected from west to east this afternoon. Strong low level jet will continue to produce widespread low level wind shear early this morning, this despite maintenance of gusty south to southwest surface winds. Wind shear ends later this morning, with surface winds become northwest and remaining gusty as we head through the day. Skies clear and winds decrease this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>349.
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.