Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 6:51PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 5:59 PM EDT (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 7:41PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 359 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..North gales to 35 knots diminishing to north winds 15 to 25 knots. Scattered showers early in the evening. Isolated showers after midnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..North wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201910170400;;808858 FZUS53 KAPX 161959 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 359 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-170400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City city, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 161952
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
352 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 345 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019
high impact weather potential: continued lakeshore flooding impacts
from ongoing wind event.

Pattern synopsis forecast: 998mb surface low over georgian bay at
18z... With a nice pressure gradient in its wake over the upper great
lakes between this low and a high pressure ridge over the nation's
midsection. Winds have finally come around to the north or
northwest across all of northern michigan... Strongest gusts as usual
are in areas right along the exposed immediate shorelines where
gusts over 40mph have been common. Wave height forecast
initialization suggests current wave heights of 10 to 12 feet from
the manitou islands south on lake michigan... 5 to 7 feet along the
lake huron shoreline from hammond bay to the north side of thunder
bay... As well as in the u.S. Waters of whitefish bay. Supporting
upper level system also tracking east across northern lake
huron... With a combination of synoptically driven wrap-around
precipitation over far eastern upper northeast lower... And lake
induced banded precipitation along west of the us-131 corridor as
colder air begins to slip into the forecast area.

Pressure gradient not expected to let up until later tonight as
system continues to depart to the east and eventually begins to spin
up a new batch of coastal mischief for new england on Thursday.

There is another piece of energy coming over the top of a broad
upper ridge that is over the mountains of north america... This short
wave trough is currently digging southeast across the prairie
provinces and will should be over the upper lakes by Thursday
morning.

Primary forecast concerns: continued wind and lakeshore flooding
issues are the first order of business. Plenty of lake michigan
inundation going on this afternoon... Especially down grand traverse
bay. Winds are expected to remain from a north-northwest direction
through tonight... Wind gusts of 30-40mph and locally some 40-45mph
gusts near lake huron over parts of presque isle alpena alcona
counties. Wind gusts should diminish below 30mph along the lake
michigan shoreline after midnight. Wave heights on lake michigan
are expected to diminish this evening... Likely under 7 feet south of
the manitous after midnight. Already extended the lakeshore flood
warning along the lake michigan until midnight and that looks fine.

As does the advisory for presque isle alpena counties which is set
to run through daybreak as wave heights of 6 to 9 feet between
hammond bay and thunder bay are expected through the night.

Next and more nuisance issue is lingering precipitation... The
synoptic component of which should push out of northeast lower by
midnight. Cooler northwest flow off the lakes will continue to
bring some streamers in tonight after the departure of the synoptic
component of the precipitation... Though could see some enhancement
of precipitation over northeast lower over the next several hours
with some increased influence from lake huron. Do expect that
precipitation coverage off the lakes will trend toward being more
scattered in coverage as the night wears on.

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 345 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis: by Thursday morning the strong upper level low
will be pulling off to our east, leaving cool cyclonic flow in its
wake. A latent pv-anomaly trailing the main upper low will provide
support for clouds and additional light showers as it works its way
across the area through the first half of the day. Heights then
start to rise Thursday afternoon, with surface ridging building into
the area Thursday night through Friday. The next system scoots by to
our north Saturday, bringing additional rain chances.

Details forecast: winds continue to diminish into Thursday morning,
with the gradient gradually relaxing over us. Some light lake effect
showers will possibly linger into early Thursday morning as pockets
of low level moisture rotate through the area. Deltat's also remain
aoa 16 degrees. These showers may start as weakly organized in the
morning (mainly near the coasts), but intensity will rapidly drop
off with diurnal disruption through mid-day and inversion heights
will be sinking through the day (only starting around 5 kft in the
morning). Clouds will be abundant in the morning, but mid upper
level moisture continues to strip out from west to east, and we
should end up with a strato-cu field with plenty of breaks for sun
in the late afternoon early evening.

Thursday night into Friday brings a lull in sensible weather as high
pressure moves into the ohio valley. Friday will see plenty of sun,
and some warmer temperatures to near normal, mainly in the mid 50s,
with some passing cirrus overhead. As we head through Friday night
into Saturday, southerly flow on the backside of the high ramps up,
increasing moisture across the area. More rounds of showers will be
possible mainly Saturday afternoon and evening as a weakening cold
front gets pushed across the area.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 345 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019
high impact weather potential: potential for windy rainy period
Monday into Tuesday.

Sunday looks mild with a lack of sensible weather as high pressure
hangs on. The next impactful weather looks to come early next week
as a system swings out of the central plains toward the upper great
lakes Monday into Tuesday. Confidence in details remains low at this
time, given spatial and temporal discrepancies. Currently, it looks
like there could be heavy rain (and thunder?) potential Monday
afternoon into Tuesday as we get some instability in the warm
sector. Definitely a dynamic system to watch of the next few days,
as more lake shore flooding potential exists. Otherwise,
temperatures will be above normal with highs near 60 through the
weekend into Monday, as general ridginess persists over the east
coast, until cooler weather returns on Wednesday behind the system.

Marine
Issued at 345 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019
gale force gusts on lake michigan are expected to diminish on lake
michigan during the evening hours... But will need to replaced by a
small craft advisory at least into Thursday morning. Gales will
persist on lake huron through tonight before diminishing Thursday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood warning until midnight edt tonight for miz020-
021-025-026-031-099.

Lakeshore flood advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for miz018-024.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for lhz345-346.

Gale warning until 2 am edt Thursday for lhz347>349.

Lm... Lakeshore flood warning until midnight edt tonight for lmz346.

Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Jpb
short term... Stj
long term... Stj
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi80 min N 28 G 39 49°F 1009.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi66 min NNW 13 G 21 45°F 55°F1007.7 hPa
45175 44 mi41 min NNE 18 G 25 47°F 55°F1 ft1008 hPa40°F
WSLM4 44 mi60 min NNW 27 46°F 54°F1007.6 hPa (+1.5)36°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E15
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G23
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G28
NE19
G26
NE21
G30
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G36
N25
G33
N25
N21
G27
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N16
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1 day
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W9
G14
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G18
SW8
G12
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G15
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G14
SW9
G15
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G13
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G14
SW9
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S9
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G13
SE7
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SE11
G17
E18
G22
E13
G16
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SW9
NW7
G19
W4
NW13
G18
SW9
G15
SW10
G13
W12
G17
W14
G22
W17
G23
W15
W12
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi65 minNNW 22 G 3410.00 miOvercast and Breezy49°F41°F75%1009.1 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi64 minNNW 11 G 2010.00 miOvercast46°F40°F79%1007.4 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi63 minN 8 G 1610.00 miDrizzle47°F42°F83%1007.8 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi67 minNNW 9 G 185.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F37°F93%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12E14
G17
E12
G16
E13
G18
E10E8SE8E4SE3CalmE5CalmCalmN16
G27
N23
G34
N20
G27
N19
G28
N21
G28
N21
G30
N21
G31
N20
G32
NW23
G29
N20
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NW23
G32
1 day agoSW9
G16
SW4S3S4S3S6S6S8S7S7S5S6S6SE6SE4SE5SE8SE5SE7E6SE6E8E13E9
2 days agoSW7SW6SW14
G20
SW13
G21
NW14
G24
W20
G26
SW14
G24
W19
G24
W20
G24
W23
G31
W10W15
G21
W15W12W17W14
G18
W14
G19
W15
G19
W16
G19
SW16
G23
SW14SW14
G19
W12
G18
SW13
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.