Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 8:20PM Friday April 10, 2020 8:38 AM EDT (12:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:53PMMoonset 7:49AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 403 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots decreasing to 20 knots early in the evening. Partly cloudy early in the morning then clearing. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202004101615;;864792 FZUS53 KAPX 100803 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 403 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-101615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City city, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 101107 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 707 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

. Brisk and cold today .

High Impact Weather Potential . None expected.

Primary Forecast Concerns . Whether or not we can generate any lake effect.

Strong push of dry air has ended lingering snow showers as well as clearing skies from north to south over the last few hours. This is despite good over lake instability in place. Model soundings bear out classic inverted V look today (which is very dry low levels and only a bit of mid level moisture) This usually portends the lack of much lake activity. At this point, do not expect much more than northwest flow induced clouds. Suppose there could be a few flurries flying around but will leave these out for now. Cold today with highs generally about 10 degrees below normal. Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s but the wind should make it feel mighty chilly. Partly cloudy skies tonight with winds diminishing this evening allowing for lows ranging from the upper teens to the mid 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

. A Break and then the Big Wind Up .

High Impact Weather Potential . East winds could be an issue on the north side of this storm on Sunday/Monday as the low moves up into SE Lower Michigan.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes . Saturday still continues to look dry with increasing clouds and rain advancing into the Upper Great Lakes. The models, for the most part, still look to not bring any precipitation into the area until after 03z/Sun as a 500 mb speed max is in the vicinity of the baroclinic zone of the warm front and the sfc trough. Model soundings overnight continue to show soundings that support rain or maybe a rain/snow mix. Sfc lows in E Upper are close to freezing, but soundings there would support snow, so think that freezing rain or drizzle are a low probability event. Sunday, the rain/mix soundings continue with the sfc low, on both models, moving out of the TX/OK panhandles and moving into the Lower Ohio Valley by 06z/Mon and SE Lower MI by 12z/Mon, which would continue to keep our forecast area, in the dry air through Monday morning. So little to no snow accumulation through the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns . The models seem to be coalescing in on a solution. There are still some uncertainty, but the differences in the models have it seeming that the models are getting a chance on this. So the main issues with this system will be winds, and the track will be crucial with that, but also the chance for snow. At least for snow. Based on the GEFS plumes at 18z, the deterministic model was on the low end of the snow accumulations, with the many of the members packing around the mean around 12z/Mon with 3-4 inches. We are on the knife's edge, based on both the GFS and ECMWF, as well as the SREF and NAM, even the CMC NH, is showing (and the NAEFS from yesterday morning) through Sunday should be rain of low snow accumulation, but if the models move 50-100 miles east in the track and snow in E Upper and portions of NW Lower will could be significant.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Monday may have an accumulating snow, but there is some uncertainty with the model tracks.

Extended (Monday through Thursday) . Monday, the ECMWF and the GFS are about 50 miles apart with the sfc low position by the afternoon, which is in Lake Huron/the North Channel area. Which would continue the rain near APN through 18z/Mon, but change the precipitation to snow everywhere else. However, after 18z/Mon, the rain changes to snow pretty quickly. Monday night With the 850 mb temperatures falling to -12c to -14c, plenty of moisture, and NW winds in the 1000-850 mb flow, think that the there will be moderate to heavy snow amounts in the bands. Tuesday, the winds back to the WNW, but everything else remains the same, so we could continue with more moderate to heavy bands with the -11c to -10c temperatures. Water temperatures are +2c in Lake Superior and +3C in N Lake Michigan. So we continue with good LES conditions through Wednesday morning. Wednesday, the GFS has a much more vigorous shortwave at 500 mb, which spins up a small intense sfc low that enhances the snow fall. The ECMWF just shows -14c 850 mb air, with constant NW winds and RH values above 70% in the layer. So we continue the LES through Thursday morning. Will continue the snow for the day, and wouldn't be surprised if the shortwave/sfc low smooth out toward the ECMWF idea. Thursday, 850 mb temperatures warm to -8c and the RH fall off so the day probably will be dry. The GFS keeps trying to put some snow in for the night, while the ECMWF is dry. The consensus forecast will probably be wet, but wouldn't be surprised if this turns out dry if the pattern holds.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 702 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Drier air will move into the area. However, decent over lake instability will lead to a few light lake effect snow showers or flurries today which may affect TVC and mbL along with MVFR cigs this morning. Northwest winds will be a bit gusty as well. Winds will diminish tonight with VFR conditions.

MARINE. Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Small craft advisory winds across most nearshore zones through early this evening. Winds then diminish later this evening with light winds overnight. Southwest winds increase on Saturday with small craft advisories likely needed. After light winds Saturday night, easterly winds slowly increase Sunday in advance of an approaching powerful storm system.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . AS SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . AS MARINE . AS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi59 min N 17 G 25 34°F 1012.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi51 min NW 9.9 G 18 30°F 39°F1010.1 hPa19°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi44 minNNW 13 G 2010.00 miFair33°F17°F54%1011.5 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi44 minWNW 8 G 1610.00 miFair31°F18°F58%1010.5 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi44 minNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F19°F57%1011.5 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi46 minNW 10 G 1710.00 miFair28°F16°F60%1010.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW10W6SW6SW4SW7W7SW11W7W5SW11
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CalmCalmCalmW3W8W8W6W8W9
2 days agoE7E9E5SE5CalmE5CalmSE6E4NE4E4SE3CalmCalmCalmW5W6W6W6W7SW5W10W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.