Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM Moonrise 6:37 AM   Moonset 11:37 PM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1046 Am Edt Fri May 10 2024
Today - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - West wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 101453 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1053 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances tonight and Saturday.

- Patchy frost possible Saturday morning.

- Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms Sunday into early next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 1048 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

No big changes necessary to the forecast. Still can't rule out a few stray afternoon lake breeze convergent initiated showers.
Most spots should remain rain free. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies expected with seasonably warm temperatures with highs in the low and mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Synopsis/Pattern: High pressure extends ne-ward into the upper MS Valley and western Lk Superior. Low pressure over far northern Ontario extends a cold front toward Winnipeg and eastern ND. Aloft, a digging shortwave will deepen and close off as it heads for the northern lakes. This will result in a surface wave deepening along the cold front, with the resulting low directly over our heads at daybreak Saturday.

Forecast: Lights winds this morning will give way to a weak west synoptic wind this afternoon. Flow will be weak enough for lake breeze development. Localized convergence will be highest somewhat inland in ne lower MI, and where lake breezes collide in eastern upper. Instability looks meager, maybe 100-200j/kg, but we've got enough localized forcing to take advantage of minimal Cape. Will maintain a slight chance for a shower this afternoon in parts of eastern upper and ne lower MI. Otherwise a partly to mostly sunny day, though with clouds increasing late.

Max temps in the 60s.

Tonight, isentropic ascent increases in a relatively narrow ribbon, ahead of a deepening surface low and amplifying 500mb wave. Moisture availability is somewhat limited, with surface ridging dominating the se states and central plains. But forcing will be enough to generate showers in a portion of the area. In the evening and early overnight, will mention a chance of showers w of I-75 in both peninsulas. Showers will progress se- ward with time; likely pops forecast overnight in the sw third of the forecast area (including mbL/TVC/Gladwin. Pops decrease to a slight chance or less north of the big bridge. Looks to be on the cloudy side across the area.

Min temps within a few degrees of 40f.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

An upper-level low tracks into Northern Michigan spreading rain showers/shallow convection across the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Moisture advection and more energy tracking overhead Sunday into next week will result in the chance for rain showers once again for the next several days. However, as previously stated, a brief break in activity could be possible mid next week (Tuesday/ Wednesday) as energy looks to be situated to the north and south of the region while in a more zonal flow. Unsettled weather returns for later in the week as another system impacts the CWA bringing back chances for rain showers.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Rain showers/ shallow convection Saturday; patchy frost possible Saturday morning: Winds shift northerly Friday into Saturday as a low pressure tracks across Northern Michigan. As such, a cold airmass is drawn southward into the region, leading to the possibility of enough instability to create a rumble of thunder or two, especially in the afternoon. With the cooler airmass overhead, winds expected to become light, clouds clearing, and temperatures expected to drop into the 30s, the possibility arises that patchy frost could be a concern for Saturday morning. This potential is mainly for interior/higher terrain and the typical valley locations.

- Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms Sunday into early next week: A short-lived ridge builds in for Saturday evening into Sunday promoting clearing for Saturday night. As winds shift more southerly for Sunday, a warming trend in temperatures is expected as we head into next week. With these southerly winds, a flux of moisture will be brought to the region along with increasing clouds and more chances for rain showers (with possible embedded thunderstorms) next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR thru this evening. Some restrictions possible overnight.

Low pressure will cross northern MI early Saturday. Just VFR conditions thru this evening. As the low approaches, clouds increase and lower tonight. MVFR cigs and some -SHRA will be possible overnight at PLN/TVC/MBL.

Mainly light winds today. Onshore lake breezes this afternoon/evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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