Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ellison Bay, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A deep upper level trough was moving through the region, and was supporting BKN-OVC stratocumulus and cool temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s across the forecast area. Northwest winds were gusting to 25 to 35 mph regionwide. Cool temperatures in the upper 30s and

Winds will subside this evening, with skies briefly scattering out. Increasing mid-level clouds are expected overnight as a short-wave trough approaches the region. This wave, which looks fairly potent, will bring a chance of light snow showers or flurries to parts of central and east central WI Sunday morning.
At best, we are expecting a light dusting of snow.

High pressure builds into the region Sunday night. As the high shifts east on Monday, increasing south winds will will bring moderating, but still slightly below normal temperatures to the forecast area. A weak low pressure system and cold front will move through the region with little or no precipitation on Tuesday.
Much warmer gets drawn into the region ahead of the front, with high temperatures rising into the 60s and lower 70s. High pressure returns Tuesday night into Wednesday, with continued dry and mild conditions.

Gusty south winds develop Wednesday night into Thursday, and start to draw Gulf moisture into the region. There is a small chance of showers in our western counties by Thursday afternoon, but showers and thunderstorms become more likely Thursday night into Friday, as a cold front moves through. With PWATs increasing to 1.00-1.25 inches and marginal instability (MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg), would anticipate fairly widespread showers and embedded storms, with potential for locally moderate to heavy rainfall. Current probabilistic forecasts show a 40-60% chance of amounts in excess of 0.25 inch and 20-30% chance of greater than 0.50 inch.

The cold frontal passage brings some modest cooling for the weekend.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR stratocumulus with ceilings of 3500-4500 ft AGL will gradually rise during the day and scatter out by this evening.
Increasing mid-level clouds will arrive ahead of a short-wave trough later tonight into Sunday morning. The short-wave may combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to produce scattered light snow showers or flurries over central and east central WI Sunday morning.

Northwest winds will continue to be blustery this afternoon with frequent gusts to 20 to 25 kts and peak gusts around 30 kts.
The winds will subside early this evening, then increase again mid-morning Sunday, though they will not be as strong as today.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Minor to moderate flooding continues on many rivers, with major flooding expected to persist on the Wolf River through Tuesday.
Most of the river levels have crested, and with a prolonged stretch of dry weather anticipated through Thursday, water levels should gradually subside through the week.

Those living near rivers should continue to monitor the latest Flood Warnings and statements from the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.