Ellison Bay, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ellison Bay, WI

June 17, 2024 2:48 PM CDT (19:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:04 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM
Moonrise 4:27 PM   Moonset 2:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 200 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

This afternoon - S wind 5 to 10 kts. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Tonight - S wind 5 to 10 kts. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft early in the morning.

Tuesday - S wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.

Tuesday night - S wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 7 ft.

LMZ500
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 171819 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms across the region today. The best chance of severe storms will be across parts of central and north central WI this morning, and over northern WI later this afternoon and evening.

- There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall today, mainly west and north of the Fox Valley. A complex of storms with heavy rainfall will move through central, north central and far northeast WI this morning, and additional thunderstorms with heavy rainfall may occur over northern WI later this afternoon and evening. There is a continued risk of excessive rainfall from Wednesday through Friday.

- Well-above average temperatures are expected through Tuesday.
Heat indices may reach the lower 90s in the Fox Valley today, and middle to upper 90s across most of the forecast area on Tuesday.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances are possible through much of the week. Some strong storms and locally heavy rainfall may be possible at times.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Tuesday

Conditions were quiet across GRB CWA early this morning, with an unstable (MUCAPE 1500-2000 j/kg) but capped (CINH of -150 to 300 j/kg) air mass in place. However, upstream convection has rapidly expanded and become more organized over central and southern MN and NW IA, due to strong WAA/moisture convergence on the nose of 40 kt low-level jet, possible MCV and in the presence of a cold front. This activity is expected to move into GRB CWA this morning, and will pose a heavy rainfall and at least marginal severe risk.

Upstream convection will move into the forecast area this morning, most likely between 13z-14z. Most models suggest the MCS will move across the northwest two-thirds of the CWA; closer to the position of the incoming cold front, and the current forecast follows this scenario. Will watch trends closely early this morning and adjust farther south, if necessary. Given with fairly strong CAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km and deep layer of 25 to 35 kts over the NW part of the forecast area, suspect at least a marginal risk of severe storms will exist as the line of storms arrives. In addition, we will likely pick up a quick half inch to an inch of rain, which could lead to minor urban flooding. This convection should move out of far NE WI around midday. The cold front is expected to be bisecting the CWA from central into NE WI this afternoon, with increasing southerly flow resulting in overrunning. This should result in a continued threat of thunderstorms, especially over N WI during the late afternoon and evening. The severe threat is uncertain due to the stabilizing effects of the morning convection, but locally strong storms and pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible. The front will lift back north as a warm front and move out of the forecast area overnight, leading to a period of dry weather that will persist through Tuesday. Partly cloudy skies and south winds gusting to 30 mph will reinforce the hot air mass over the region, with heat indices soaring into the middle to upper 90s Tuesday afternoon.

Highs today should range from the lower to middle 70s far northwest to the middle to upper 80s southeast. Lows tonight should be in the middle 60s north to the lower 70s south. Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

500mb ridge across the eastern United States will flatten by the end of the work week, resulting in an active westerly flow pattern into next weekend.

For Tuesday night, thunderstorms are expected mainly along the weak cold front approaching the area from the west. Some stronger/severe storms are possible across north-central during the evening with CAPE values around 2,500 J/KG. The storms are expected to gradually weaken during the late evening and overnight. On Wednesday, the GFS model is quicker with the surface frontal passage compared to the NAM/ECMWF/Canadian models. NAM Bufkit soundings on Wednesday indicated around 1,000 J/KG of CAPE and 0-6km shear values around 30 knots which would support strong storms and possibly a few isolated severe storms into Wednesday evening. The greatest risk of severe weather would be from central into northeast Wisconsin. On Wednesday night, the surface front sinks southward into southern Wisconsin, resulting in a dry period across the far north. The front is expected meander across the region into next weekend with a few rounds of showers and storms on the north side of the boundary.

A more potent system is expected to send the front northward as a warm front Friday night into Saturday. Showers and storms are expected along the warm front with a few strong or severe storms possible. A cold front is expected to move across the area Saturday night. No significant changes were made to the Sunday period. High temperatures during the period will run at or above normal.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A cold front has progressed eastward towards the east-central WI TAF sites this afternoon. The front has triggered a few showers and thunderstorms to develop, but have opted to only include VCSH at the ATW and GRB TAF sites for this afternoon due to their isolated nature. Will amend as needed. Further west, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were moving into the central and north-central WI TAF sites. Anticipate the front to gradually lift north later this afternoon into this evening and bring additional showers and thunderstorms mainly to the central and north-central WI TAF sites. Showers will linger the longest at the RHI TAF site tonight before lifting north early Tuesday morning.
MVFR conditions will only be associated with the heavier showers and thunderstorms throughout this TAF period, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Dry conditions are anticipated for Tuesday. LLWS is also expected to develop this evening and continue overnight.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 6 mi108 minNNE 1.9G2.9 70°F 29.90
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 18 mi68 minNNW 14G16 65°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi48 minNE 11G12 66°F 65°F29.8565°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 34 mi38 minN 7.8G9.7 57°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi68 minNNE 8G16 63°F


Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSUE33 sm52 minNNE 16G2010 smPartly Cloudy75°F66°F74%29.88
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Wind History graph: SUE
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Green Bay, WI,




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