Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rib Lake, WI

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:55PM Sunday March 7, 2021 3:08 PM CST (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 3:09AMMoonset 11:42AM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rib Lake, WI
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location: 45.21, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 072022 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 222 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Warm (at least away from Lake Michigan) for the start of the work week, some rain mid-week, then temperatures dropping back closer to seasonal normals by next weekend.

The upper pattern across North America consisted of deep troughs off the West Coast and over eastern Canada. The ridge between the troughs was in the process of flattening due to energy ejecting out of the western trough. The flow at higher latitudes will progress a little faster than at lower latitudes. That will allow the bulk of the energy in the western trough to separate off into a southern stream and result in the typical split-flow forecast issues by the end of the period.

Considerably above normal temperatures are expected for the first few days of the period, then readings will drop back closer to seasonal normals. The primary precipitation producer will be a cyclone crossing the area mid-week. The system will have access to Gulf moisture, so precipitation for the period is likely to end up AOA normal.

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Monday Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Mainly tranquil weather to persist over the next 24 hours, although there is a very small chance of some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle across the north after midnight.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern Great Lakes. An area of low pressure was situated northeast of Lake Winnipeg with a cold front that extended south-southwest into the central Plains. Southerly winds between these two weather features were trying to pull warmer air into WI, but a dose of mid and high clouds were keeping temperatures in check this afternoon. Nevertheless, readings were still above normal for early March.

Models show a mid-level shortwave trough will move through northeast WI this evening, followed by the cold front during the overnight hours. While moisture is still rather marginal, there is some mid-level Q-G forcing which may be enough to produce spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle, mainly over northern WI where the forcing is slightly better. Any precipitation that does make it to the surface should not have any impact on area roads. Otherwise, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with patchy fog around, especially where a snowpack still exists. Min temperatures will not be anywhere near as cold as this morning with readings only falling into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees north, lower to middle 30s south.

After the cold front departs first thing Monday morning, an area of high pressure is forecast to build into the western Great Lakes region. As this occurs, skies will become mostly sunny and with temperatures expected to be 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal, anticipate max temperatures to make a big jump on Monday. Look for readings to range from around 50 degrees over north- central WI, to the middle to upper 50s west of the Fox Valley.

LONG TERM. Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

As was the case yesterday, the main long-term forecast issues were temperatures early in the week, and the timing/location/amount of precipitation with the passage of the mid-week cyclone. Additionally, the potential for dense fog at times and for a round of thunderstorms mid-week also exist.

Similar to yesterday, edged temperatures away from the lake up a little above NBM values early in the week. The low-level flow does not look like it will have enough of a westerly component Tuesday/Wednesday to drive the warm air all the way to the lakeshore, so left cooler readings there. The warmest temperatures lakeside could actually occur Wednesday night as the cyclone tracks across the Lake Superior region and winds shift west.

Fog will probably also be an issue at times, though the specifics of when and where aren't clear. The far north, which still has a substantial snow cover would seem most susceptible to dense fog development when surface dew points well above freezing arrive in the area in the warm sector of the cyclone.

The track of the cyclone looks favorable for some thunderstorms to occur Wednesday afternoon and evening as the warm sector shifts through the forecast area. Edged thunder chances up from the previous forecast, and mentioned the possibility of some small hail and gusty winds in the HWO.

Consistency (both between models and when comparing subsequent runs of the same model) diminishes considerably during the latter part of the forecast period as the flow across NOAM becomes increasingly split. Stayed with the standard NBM forecast initialization grids during this time.

AVIATION. for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Mid and high clouds are expected this afternoon as warmer air aloft begins to push into the region. VFR conditions should continue into the evening, however the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough and cold front will bring the potential for MVFR cigs to impact the area late tonight into early Monday morning. There could also be some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle over northern WI overnight. In addition to the clouds, LLWS remains in the TAF this evening with wind speeds above the inversion in the 40 to 50 knot range.

Clouds are expected to give way to increasing sunshine on Monday as an area of high pressure builds into the region. VFR conditions to return by mid-morning and persist through the rest of the day. Winds will become west-northwest behind the cold front, but be relatively on the light side.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . Kallas LONG TERM . Skowronski AVIATION . Kallas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 96 mi88 min S 8.9 G 23 49°F 1016.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taylor County Airport, WI15 mi73 minSSE 11 G 1710.00 miFair37°F26°F65%1021.3 hPa
Merrill, Merrill Municipal Airport, WI19 mi73 minSSE 7 G 1610.00 miFair40°F26°F57%1022.3 hPa
Tomahawk Regional Airport, WI22 mi73 minSSE 510.00 miFair38°F24°F55%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDZ

Wind History from MDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3N5CalmCalmCalmE6E4E3E4E5E4SE5SE6SE6SE5SE6SE8SE7
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1 day agoNW6N6N4N4NE4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN4
2 days agoS5SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N5N5NW6W5NW3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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