Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rib Lake, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:18PM Sunday December 8, 2019 2:16 AM CST (08:16 UTC) Moonrise 2:37PMMoonset 3:24AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rib Lake, WI
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location: 45.21, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 080449 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1049 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 243 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Freezing drizzle followed by some snow Sunday night into Monday night, then a short-lived but fairly intense shot of arctic air for the middle to latter part of the upcoming work week.

Amplification and consolidation of the upper pattern will occur the next couple days. A broad, complex trough from central Canada into the western Atlantic will consolidate near Hudson Bay then deepen south into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile back to the west, an intense jet driving east across the Pacific will lead to height falls in the Gulf of Alaska region, which in turn will cause ridging to sharpen along the West Coast. The relatively short wavelength between the Pacific and eastern North American upper troughs will not allow the pattern to persist long, as Pacific jet energy will continue east and undercut the West Coast ridge by mid-week. By the end of the period, the pattern will consist of a seasonably strong band of modest amplitude westerlies across the CONUS and southern Canada, locked beneath a very blocky pattern at high latitudes.

The pattern will result in substantial swings in temperatures. Readings will start the period considerably above normal but drop to much below normal by mid-week as a strong push of arctic air gets driven into the area by the strong northwest upper flow between the West Coast ridge and eastern trough. Fairly quick moderation is expected as the westerlies break through the southern portion of the ridge, with readings returning to AOA normal levels by the end of the period. At least a couple precipitation events are anticipated (the most significant likely Sunday night into Monday night), but with Gulf moisture expected to remain south and east of the area, amounts will probably remain AOB normal.

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Sunday Issued at 243 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the region this afternoon. Temperatures were in the upper 20s across the far north with 30s elsewhere. At 2 pm, Waupaca was the warm spot at 38 degrees.

For tonight, southerly winds will be on the increase ahead of the next system. Hourly temperatures may dip a few degrees around sunset then should rise a few degrees through the night ahead of the cold front dropping southeast towards the area. The front will enter north-central Wisconsin Sunday morning, then into the Fox Valley and lakeshore region Sunday afternoon. With low clouds expected to be in place, the front may produce a little drizzle or freezing drizzle (north) during the day. Bufkit soundings indicated shallow moisture layer with the moist layer warmer than -10C. Continued the chances of freezing drizzle or drizzle north and mainly drizzle south. The drizzle could switch over to freezing drizzle across central Wisconsin towards sunset.

Pavement temperatures for much of the day across the north will be above freezing despite air temperatures at or slightly below freezing. Impacts from the freezing drizzle would not be felt under late afternoon. Took a blend of the better performing guidance for highs on Sunday.

LONG TERM. Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 243 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

The arctic cold front will slowly settle south of the area Sunday night. Backing flow ahead of a shortwave propagating across the Plains will result in the development of weak isentropic lift, which will gradually strengthen with time. Saturation will initially not extend through a deep enough layer to reach temperatures cold enough to result in the introduction of ice crystals, so the precipitation will begin as FZDZ and transition to snow as the saturated layer deepens when stronger forcing with the shortwave arrives. The overall tend was to delay things at least a little from the previous forecast, but both the timing of the onset of precipitation and the timing of the changeover remain uncertain. The best guess is that precip will begin in north-central Wisconsin Sunday evening, but it may take until late Sunday night or early Monday morning for it to begin in east- central Wisconsin. The changeover will probably occur about 6 hours after onset, enough time for FZDZ to make the roads icy. Will probably eventually need an advisory, but given the uncertainty in timing and how far it is in the future, will opt to hold off on issuing a headline at this point.

Snowfall totals across most of the area will range from 2 to 5 inches, with perhaps a bit more in the far northwest and a bit less in the southeast.

The expected arrival of the arctic air mid-week is still on track. If current the current Apparent Temperature forecast holds with future forecasts, a Wind Chill Advisory will eventually be needed for most of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with mainly mid and high clouds. KGRB VWP shows LLWS has developed between 1,500 and 2,000 and is expected to continue into Sunday morning. Winds will veer and diminishing just after sunrise across central and north- central Wisconsin and across northeast Wisconsin by mid morning on Sunday.

The chances of precipitation arrive on Sunday across northern Wisconsin. The precipitation is expected to be in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle due to the lack of mid level moisture and no ice crystals in the cloud layer. Boundary layer temperatures are tricky across the far north as they will hover around the freezing mark through the morning, then gradually fall during the afternoon. It appears that freezing drizzle or drizzle overspread the remainder of the region Sunday evening, with the precipitation changing over to freezing drizzle and then all snow later Sunday night into Monday morning. At this time, 2 to 5 inches of snow is expected for most by Monday afternoon and evening. Higher amounts are possible across north-central Wisconsin.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . Eckberg LONG TERM . Skowronski AVIATION . Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 96 mi36 min S 8.9 G 22 40°F 1002.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taylor County Airport, WI15 mi21 minS 1210.00 miFair31°F22°F70%1006.8 hPa
Merrill, Merrill Municipal Airport, WI19 mi21 minSSW 9 G 1510.00 miFair33°F23°F69%1007.8 hPa
Tomahawk Regional Airport, WI22 mi21 minS 310.00 miFair30°F23°F77%1006.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDZ

Wind History from MDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SE6SE4SE5S3S6S6S6S8S10S7S8S9S8S8S8S10S12S14S12S13
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1 day agoNW13
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NW9NW13NW8NW8NW7NW7N9NW7NW6NW5CalmW7W6W5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5SE5SE4S6SE6SE4CalmS5CalmCalmN5N7N10N13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.