Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rib Lake, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:03PM Sunday September 19, 2021 9:20 AM CDT (14:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:01PMMoonset 3:54AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rib Lake, WI
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location: 45.21, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 191124 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 624 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Monday Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

A very warm and humid day will be in store for the region as southerly winds increase with the region in between a high pressure system to the east and an approaching low pressure system to the west. Upper level ridging is expected to keep the area dry. A tightening pressure gradient will bring gusty southerly winds to the area later this morning and lasting into the afternoon hours. Temperatures today should once again rise above guidance as they did yesterday; therefore loaded in the NBM 90th percentile for high temperatures today. Highs this afternoon are expected to soar well into the 80s across the entire area away from the lake, with highs in the 70s along the lakeshore. A few 90 degree readings are certainly not out of the question, but they are not expected to be ubiquitous.

Southerly winds will die down a bit overnight, but they should stay up enough to keep temperatures fairly warm across the region. Lows are only expected to fall into the lower to middle 60s.

A cold front will track over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday and over western Wisconsin late in the afternoon. Some showers and thunderstorms could develop across northeast Wisconsin during the day on Monday given a weak mid level shortwave tracking through the region; however, the best chance for precipitation will be with the cold front arriving Monday night. Thunderstorms that develop on Monday are not expected to be severe as MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are expected with bulk shear values around 20 knots. In addition, CAPE profiles will be very long and skinny with not much vertical acceleration of the updraft throughout the column. Highs on Monday should be a bit cooler given the occasional cloud cover from the aforementioned convective activity and upstream convection. Temperatures are expected to range from 75 to 80 degrees away from the lake, with highs in the lower to middle 70s near the lake.

LONG TERM. Monday Night Through Saturday Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Focus of this forecast continues to revolve around precip timing and amounts from Monday evening thru Tuesday morning, followed by temps and precip chances late in the next work week.

Monday night through Tuesday night . Models are converging on a faster timing of a frontal passage on Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Along the front, the right rear quad of a jet streak and mid-level fgen will provide forcing aloft for a band of showers and thunderstorms to move east across north-central and northeast WI through the night. Storms may already be entering north-central WI by 7 pm Monday where they could interact with instability up to 1000 j/kg and effective shear values of 35 to 40 kts. Skinny instability profiles will make the hail threat low, but a low level jet in the 900-800mb layer may reach up to 30 to 40 kts that could lead to a strong wind threat. The threat for strong to severe storms seems highest in the evening across central and north- central WI before instability wanes further east. While the severe threat will likely diminish through the night, the heavy rain threat will likely remain thanks to pwats of 1.75 to 2.00 inches (2-3 standard deviations above normal) and moist soundings which should result in efficient rainfall production. Amounts greater than 1" is a distinct possibility, particularly over central and north-central WI. Rainfall intensity should diminish overnight as the front exits across Lake Michigan.

Cooler and breezy conditions will surge into the area behind the front for Tuesday. A few spotty showers may linger over far north- central WI on Tuesday morning, but a gradual clearing is expected through the day. Temps on Tuesday will fall back into the 60s. Surface high pressure will build towards the region on Tuesday night, but the gradient may be just enough to prevent a frost threat. A few lows may fall into the upper 30s though.

Rest of the forecast . Cooler weather is then forecast for the rest of the week. With the high directly over the region, Wednesday night still looks to have the highest potential for frost. But will need to monitor how a closed upper low evolves over the northern Ohio Valley to the central Great Lakes. This low may prolong a tighter pressure gradient as well as some clouds across the region which would limit the frost threat. Another front may cross the region late in the week but predictability is low with the details. In any event, moisture looks to be in short supply ahead of the front. High temps Wednesday onward look to range mainly from the upper 50s to near 70 degrees.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

The pressure gradient with tighten across the western Great Lakes today with the area in between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, leading to increasing south winds later this morning and into the afternoon. Some LLWS is expected at KRHI this morning before dissipating. LLWS is expected to redevelop across the western TAF sites late tonight as south southwest winds just off the surface increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Conditions are expected to be VFR through the period.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon for WIZ022-040-050.

SHORT TERM . Kurimski LONG TERM . MPC AVIATION . Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 96 mi41 min S 9.9 G 16 71°F 1012.2 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taylor County Airport, WI15 mi26 minS 810.00 miFair59°F53°F82%1018.6 hPa
Merrill, Merrill Municipal Airport, WI19 mi26 minSSE 410.00 miFair62°F54°F75%1019 hPa
Tomahawk Regional Airport, WI22 mi26 minN 010.00 mi62°F54°F74%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDZ

Wind History from MDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S8S7S4S6S5S7S8S6CalmSE4SE6SE4SE6S7SE8SE8SE9SE8SE5S6S6S8S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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