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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 501 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect from 11 am est this morning through this afternoon...
Today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots in the morning, then becoming southwest up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots in the afternoon. Isolated showers early in the morning, then showers in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Scattered showers and numerous snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 091150 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 650 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High Impact Weather Potential: Strong wind gusts today.

Pattern Synopsis:

Combined forcing from the merging of a shortwave centered over the upper Midwest and a jet max/shortwave embedded within longwave troughing draped across the central CONUS will continue to pivot over the region today. This forcing will support continued deepening of a cyclone over the Midwest as it treks northeast into the Great Lakes by this afternoon, eventually merging with the gradually- decaying cyclone over Ontario/far northern Great Lakes.

Forecast Details:

The primary hazard across northern Michigan today will be strong winds -- mainly from late morning into the early evening hours.
South-southwest winds are expected to gust to 35-45 mph with the potential for 50+ mph gusts at times. Isolated power outages cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, clouds will continue to spread across northern Michigan this morning as the aforementioned system works into the region, bringing our next round of rain chances. Scattered showers are expected to be working from southwest to northeast across areas south of M-72 by sunrise. Scattered to numerous showers will continue to overspread northern Michigan later this morning and afternoon. The best chances for steadiest rainfall/shower coverage will come across northwest lower and areas of eastern upper west of I-75 in closer proximity to the system center with more scattered coverage anticipated with eastward extent across the CWA.
Regardless, rainfall amounts will stay on the light side with 0.10- 0.25" anticipated for most of northern Michigan.

Already mild temperatures in the 40s this morning will warm several degrees into the upper 40s to mid 50s with the warmest temperatures anticipated across northeast lower ahead of the front set to swing across northern Michigan this afternoon. Overnight temperatures look to cool back into the low to mid 30s with cold advection behind the front. West-southwest flow over the relatively warm Great Lakes waters will bring chances for lake effect rain/snow showers tonight into Saturday morning, despite meager low-level lapse rates prior to 12Z Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Low-medium...accumulating lake effect snow Sunday/night
gusty winds Monday night

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing overtaking the central continent...with shortwave troughing in the northern and southern streams of the flow. Potent vort max off to our NW attm, with attendant 996mb surface low over SW Ontario; strong cold advection on the backside of the low, with a cold front looping back through the Dakotas into the northern Rockies. Warm front with this system is off to our north as of 0z/09. Meanwhile, potent 140+kt upper level jet diving down into the central Plains into the base of the trough axis, driving development of another surface system over KS, which is connected to the northern stream system by a cold front stretching up through the MS Valley. Strong return flow ahead of this, from the Gulf up into MI, with anomalous pwats over MO, and to our north along the deformation axis over Ontario.

Southern stream vort max expected to punch northeastward along the BCZ today into tonight, trekking through the state...with the secondary cold front swinging on out by Sunday
However
do expect surface troughiness to linger into Sunday...as the upper trough axis remains overhead and begins to swing eastward. This is expected to combine with another punch of energy in the southern stream of the flow to develop a strong east coast storm over New England/E. Canada Monday
Meanwhile
in the wake of the trough axis, shortwave ridging slips into the Upper Great Lakes Monday...followed quickly by another punch of vorticity diving out of central Canada Monday night. This is expected to drag a cold front into the area by the end of the short term, with gusty winds and some southwest flow lake effect/lake enhancement potential for the Tip of the Mitt and Eastern Upper.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow/ptypes Sunday...winds Monday night...

Think there could be a bit of light snow with the fropa itself Sunday morning...though the main story will be NW flow lake effect behind the front. Initially, it could be a little mixy, especially near the coasts, but think most areas should transition to snow with time. CAVEAT: freezing drizzle is a possibility in the afternoon as the mid-levels dry out, with 4-5kft inversion heights leaving the top of the cloud layer close enough to -10C to warrant this concern.

Some potential for a decent NW flow band with a Lake Superior connection to set up somewhere in the usual NW flow areas of northern Lower at some point later Sunday afternoon and/or into Sunday night. Think this should be aided by a niblet passing through, though there is some uncertainty as to just when this will occur (0z/11, plus or minus a few hours)...and do think the uncertainty in timing/position of the niblet could shift the focus of the better snowfall totals from the current forecast
Still
at least a couple inches are a decent possibility in the typical NW flow areas (some prob guidance has around a 30 percent chance for greater than 2in), with locally higher amounts wherever the better bands set up, and particularly, if they persist over an area longer than the forecast currently suggests. Do think the EUP could see a sneaky inch or two as well, if/where better banding persists up there, too. Not sure we will see a ton more than that, noting that inversion heights should be a little on the lower side (3-5kft), which should limit deeper convection...though convection could certainly be vigorous at times, and could limit visibilities over sharp areas beneath those bands.

Other main story will be the strengthening winds Monday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of that next system. Think gale force wind gusts of 30-40kts are a good bet, as we should mix up toward 850mb or so, and tap into a decent low- level jet with this next system. Will have to keep an eye on winds, though...as there are some suggestions winds could be even stronger up a couple thousand feet above the layer we're currently expecting to mix into...and any deeper convection may have some potential to draw down those stronger gusts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Low-medium...watching potential for gales Tuesday...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Aforementioned northern stream trough axis should be dipping into the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday, with a punch of cooler air likely to set off the lake machine again. Greatest potential for accumulating snow with this would be across the EUP, thicker into the cold air/overlake instability potential, though will have to see if the main flow ends up more westerly, or a little more northwesterly behind the front. Think the strong gusty winds from Monday night will continue into Tuesday, too, which should make for some blowing snow potential. Additional energy pinwheeling into this Wednesday should keep the troughing idea consistent into midweek, though strong ridging looks to build eastward into central Canada for midweek as well...bringing warm advection and milder air toward the region again

Sort of similar to the current pattern, in a way, with some signals even pointing toward another period of unsettled weather toward next weekend. Think the temperature roller coaster idea will continue...with potential for the early part of the week to be cooler with snow, and the latter half to perhaps be milder again...though guidance is still trying to get a handle on things for the end of the extended in particular.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Flight conditions will continue to degrade over the next few hours with widespread IFR CIGs across most of northern Michigan. MVFR/IFR VSBYs are also possible at times today with rain showers spreading from south to north across the area. Current southeast winds will strengthen through the morning, becoming south/southwest winds around 20 kts with gusts as high as 35-45 kts at times late this morning into early this evening. LLWS will also be possible late this morning into early this afternoon with 50-55kt flow around 2km above ground level. Winds look to weaken some this evening and tonight. A break in precip chances is expected this evening before lake effect rain and snow showers pick back up later tonight.

MARINE

Small craft advisory winds and waves will be in place across northern Great Lakes nearshore waters this morning before gale force wind gusts are expected this afternoon and early evening. Wind gusts as high as 40-45 kts will be possible during that time. Advisory conditions may linger across northern Great Lakes nearshore waters on Sunday. Looking ahead, gale force wind gusts will be possible again Monday night into Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EST this evening for MIZ086>088-095>098.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

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