Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 9:01 PM Moonrise 7:35 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 256 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Tonight - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming variable 10 knots or less. Clear early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 112327 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 727 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Clearing skies into tonight, leading to favorable aurora viewing and patchy frost potential.

- Thunderstorm potential beginning late Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening. A few strong storms possible.

- Some frost potential Tuesday morning?

- Noticeably warmer temperatures to end the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will continue to dig southeast of the region over the northeast CONUS/Mid-Atlantic tonight as ridging temporarily slides overhead by Sunday morning. At the surface, the weak cyclone centered over Lake Huron will also move east of the Great Lakes tonight as relatively high pressure works into the state. This will be short lived, however, as a second shortwave rotating across southern Canada will support a second cyclone that is expected to trek across Ontario on Sunday, swinging an attendant cold front across the region late in the period.

Forecast Details:

Clearing skies into tonight -- As aforementioned low pressure continues to slide east, showers across northeast lower Michigan will diminish this afternoon into early evening as cloud cover clears from west to east. With ongoing geomagnetic storm activity, this will lead to favorable viewing conditions for potential aurora viewing tonight -- unlike last night across the majority of northern Michigan. Additionally, clear skies and calm winds will lead to efficient radiational cooling after sunset, allowing temperatures to dip well into the 30s for most interior areas. Marginal temperatures in the mid-30s for most areas and recent rainfall decreases confidence in widespread frost conditions, so electing to issue a Special Weather Statement for now vs. issuing a Frost Advisory. However, localized low-lying cold spots may see frost development if temperatures cool into the low 30s.

Thunderstorm potential beginning late Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening -- After a second round of showers departs the area SUnday morning, additional development is expected along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front late Sunday afternoon and evening. This will lead to potential thunderstorms, primarily for areas along and west of US-131 by the end of the period (00Z Monday/8 PM EDT Sunday). Showers/storms will move into an environment characterized by marginal elevated buoyancy (~500 J/kg MUCAPE) and relatively strong wind shear aloft (~35-40 kts 0-6km shear ad EBWD). A few strong storms may initiate late Sunday afternoon/evening, and the potential for a severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The primary hazards with any strong storm will be strong wind gusts and hail.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Pattern/synopsis: A cold front moves across the region Sunday night.
A wave of low pressure then tracks by to our south early in the week. Heights slowly build through mid-week then a front moves across the region later in the week. Low pressure likely moving by to the north Friday into Saturday is expected to advect noticeably warmer air into the region.

Forecast: Hi/resolution guidance continues to drive a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms across the region through early Sunday night along an advancing cold front. Some guidance has upwards of a few hundred J/kg of mixed layer cape across the southern half of the forecast area. However, severe storms are not anticipated at this time though small hail and gusty winds can not be ruled out. Fog is possible overnight. Attention will then turn to the south where a wave of low pressure is expected to track across the central Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. Guidance continues to keep much of the moisture to our south but will keep in ongoing low chance pops across far southern counties to cover for any northward wobble. Could see some patchy frost late Monday night depending upon a few factors (especially the amount of cloud cover and winds).
Short wave ridging then builds in for mid-week likely leading to rain free conditions along with seasonable temperatures. A weak front will return shower chances later Thursday into Friday. Heights then bounce back up as we head into next weekend which should lead to noticeably warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR prevailing conditions through the period except for a brief period of MVFR vsbys in fog in and around Kinross toward daybreak. Some shower/thunderstorm potential very late in the period, but with low coverage and low confidence in specific timing have left it out of TAFs for this cycle. Will revisit in future forecasts. In the interim, winds to become light and variable overnight before increasing out of the south and southeast Sunday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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