Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Glastonbury, MT
December 8, 2023 3:19 PM MST (22:19 UTC)
Sunrise 7:50AM Sunset 4:41PM Moonrise 3:07AM Moonset 2:09PM
Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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FXUS65 KBYZ 082157 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 257 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2023
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Saturday night...
As the snow continues to move out of eastern MT this afternoon, conditions will begin to improve. However, increased winds will keep the threat for patchy blowing snow in eastern MT through the evening commute before the winds back off later this evening. Any roads that remain wet through sundown may also become slick as air temperatures drop below freezing, so use caution driving this evening.
Outside of the east, additional isolated to scattered rain/snow showers will bring low to moderate precipitation chances (15 to 40 percent, highest over the mountains) to the area this afternoon and evening. Even though temperatures are above freezing for many this afternoon, the cold air aloft and surface wet-bulb temperatures being near freezing are allowing most of the precipitation to fall as snow. With that said, areas of reduced visibility are possible this afternoon and evening, especially over Lame Deer Divide, Camps Pass and Aberdeen Hill. If you are traveling this evening, stay weather aware. A few isolated snow flurries may (low, 20% chance) persist into tomorrow morning.
Saturday will be dry with building heights across the area.
Breezy conditions (30 mph gusts) will develop over the western foothills from Big Timber to Harlowton as the surface pressure gradient over the region begins to tighten. By Saturday evening, strong winds look to impact the Livingston area as favorable gap conditions align. These conditions will continue through early Sunday morning before the pressure gradient begins to shift more west to east. This shift will favor Big Timber to Harlowton, where strong winds look to develop late Saturday night, lasting through the day Sunday.
Looking at the local wind guidance, Livingston currently has a greater than 90% chance to see winds of 50 mph or greater and a 75% chance for winds of 60 mph or greater Saturday night. Big Timber has a 90% chance for winds of 50 mph or greater winds and a 60% chance for winds of 60 mph or greater Sunday morning.
Harlowton, which has the lowest chances, has an 80% chance for winds of 50 mph or greater and 40% chance for winds of 60 mph or greater.
Temperatures will drop into the 20s to upper teens tonight before warming into the mid 30s to lower 40s tomorrow. Saturday night's lows will be similar to tonights. Arends
Sunday through Friday...
Ridging aloft and at the surface to the west, along with lee- side troughing will continue to bring strong winds to the western foothills on Sunday. Look for strong winds at Livingston and Nye to eventually favor the west to east gap areas around Big Timber and Harlowton as pressure gradients align more west to east, and 700 mb winds shift out of the northwest. Winds will gradually decrease late in the day and into the evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Livingston and Nye areas, with a High Wind Watch for the Big Timber area. For wind gust probabilities for the western foothills, please see the short term discussion.
Pacific moisture will also be working into the southwest mountains on Sunday from the west, where areas near Cooke City could pick up a few inches of snow, greatest on west facing aspects. Latest NBM guidance shows the probability of receiving 3 or more inches of snow is around 50 percent near Cooke City.
Heading into Monday, another shortwave is progged to drop into the area from the northwest, causing winds to shift around briefly to the north and northeast, bringing a moderate chance of rain and snow showers into Monday night. Current precipitation chances range from 30 to 60 percent over the mountains, to 20-40 percent over the lower elevations mainly west of Miles City, highest near the western foothills. Snowfall amounts look to be light at this time, generally an inch or less over the lower elevations, with perhaps a couple inches in the mountains on northerly aspects.
Latest NBM probabilities show an 80 percent chance or greater of receiving less than an inch of snow for the lower elevations. Upper ridging looks to build back over the region through the middle part of the week, as an upper low undercuts the ridge through the SW US into the southern plains. Periods of gap winds are possible.
There is potential for another wave dropping out of the northwest on Friday, but there is a lot of uncertainty with this solution.
Temperatures through the long term will likely remain above normal, with no sign of cold air dropping in from the north. Highs look to range from the upper 30s to 40s most days. STP
AVIATION
Snow and gusty NW winds will gradually decrease over southeast MT through this evening with improving conditions. Look for MVFR- IFR and wind gusts of 25-35 knots (creating some blowing snow)
from KBHK-K97M through the late afternoon. Scattered showers are possible over western and central areas into the overnight, with local MVFR conditions. Mountains will be frequently obscured in snow showers. VFR is anticipated regionwide by tomorrow. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 028/040 027/048 032/041 024/041 027/048 028/047 024/039 21/U 20/N 13/O 20/B 00/U 00/U 00/B LVM 020/036 026/043 030/041 023/041 022/046 024/044 022/040 10/U 23/S 24/O 20/B 00/U 00/U 00/B HDN 025/042 023/049 029/043 021/042 021/048 022/047 021/040 31/B 01/E 13/O 20/B 00/U 00/U 10/B MLS 025/037 021/044 026/038 018/038 022/045 023/043 021/037 10/B 01/E 01/B 10/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 4BQ 026/037 022/044 029/040 021/041 024/047 026/047 023/037 20/B 00/E 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B BHK 016/033 016/038 019/035 011/036 019/043 022/042 017/034 00/Q 01/B 00/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/B SHR 023/037 017/046 026/043 021/041 019/050 024/048 021/040 41/U 01/E 12/O 21/B 00/U 01/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 65-66.
High Wind Watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon FOR ZONE 141.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 257 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2023
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Saturday night...
As the snow continues to move out of eastern MT this afternoon, conditions will begin to improve. However, increased winds will keep the threat for patchy blowing snow in eastern MT through the evening commute before the winds back off later this evening. Any roads that remain wet through sundown may also become slick as air temperatures drop below freezing, so use caution driving this evening.
Outside of the east, additional isolated to scattered rain/snow showers will bring low to moderate precipitation chances (15 to 40 percent, highest over the mountains) to the area this afternoon and evening. Even though temperatures are above freezing for many this afternoon, the cold air aloft and surface wet-bulb temperatures being near freezing are allowing most of the precipitation to fall as snow. With that said, areas of reduced visibility are possible this afternoon and evening, especially over Lame Deer Divide, Camps Pass and Aberdeen Hill. If you are traveling this evening, stay weather aware. A few isolated snow flurries may (low, 20% chance) persist into tomorrow morning.
Saturday will be dry with building heights across the area.
Breezy conditions (30 mph gusts) will develop over the western foothills from Big Timber to Harlowton as the surface pressure gradient over the region begins to tighten. By Saturday evening, strong winds look to impact the Livingston area as favorable gap conditions align. These conditions will continue through early Sunday morning before the pressure gradient begins to shift more west to east. This shift will favor Big Timber to Harlowton, where strong winds look to develop late Saturday night, lasting through the day Sunday.
Looking at the local wind guidance, Livingston currently has a greater than 90% chance to see winds of 50 mph or greater and a 75% chance for winds of 60 mph or greater Saturday night. Big Timber has a 90% chance for winds of 50 mph or greater winds and a 60% chance for winds of 60 mph or greater Sunday morning.
Harlowton, which has the lowest chances, has an 80% chance for winds of 50 mph or greater and 40% chance for winds of 60 mph or greater.
Temperatures will drop into the 20s to upper teens tonight before warming into the mid 30s to lower 40s tomorrow. Saturday night's lows will be similar to tonights. Arends
Sunday through Friday...
Ridging aloft and at the surface to the west, along with lee- side troughing will continue to bring strong winds to the western foothills on Sunday. Look for strong winds at Livingston and Nye to eventually favor the west to east gap areas around Big Timber and Harlowton as pressure gradients align more west to east, and 700 mb winds shift out of the northwest. Winds will gradually decrease late in the day and into the evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Livingston and Nye areas, with a High Wind Watch for the Big Timber area. For wind gust probabilities for the western foothills, please see the short term discussion.
Pacific moisture will also be working into the southwest mountains on Sunday from the west, where areas near Cooke City could pick up a few inches of snow, greatest on west facing aspects. Latest NBM guidance shows the probability of receiving 3 or more inches of snow is around 50 percent near Cooke City.
Heading into Monday, another shortwave is progged to drop into the area from the northwest, causing winds to shift around briefly to the north and northeast, bringing a moderate chance of rain and snow showers into Monday night. Current precipitation chances range from 30 to 60 percent over the mountains, to 20-40 percent over the lower elevations mainly west of Miles City, highest near the western foothills. Snowfall amounts look to be light at this time, generally an inch or less over the lower elevations, with perhaps a couple inches in the mountains on northerly aspects.
Latest NBM probabilities show an 80 percent chance or greater of receiving less than an inch of snow for the lower elevations. Upper ridging looks to build back over the region through the middle part of the week, as an upper low undercuts the ridge through the SW US into the southern plains. Periods of gap winds are possible.
There is potential for another wave dropping out of the northwest on Friday, but there is a lot of uncertainty with this solution.
Temperatures through the long term will likely remain above normal, with no sign of cold air dropping in from the north. Highs look to range from the upper 30s to 40s most days. STP
AVIATION
Snow and gusty NW winds will gradually decrease over southeast MT through this evening with improving conditions. Look for MVFR- IFR and wind gusts of 25-35 knots (creating some blowing snow)
from KBHK-K97M through the late afternoon. Scattered showers are possible over western and central areas into the overnight, with local MVFR conditions. Mountains will be frequently obscured in snow showers. VFR is anticipated regionwide by tomorrow. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 028/040 027/048 032/041 024/041 027/048 028/047 024/039 21/U 20/N 13/O 20/B 00/U 00/U 00/B LVM 020/036 026/043 030/041 023/041 022/046 024/044 022/040 10/U 23/S 24/O 20/B 00/U 00/U 00/B HDN 025/042 023/049 029/043 021/042 021/048 022/047 021/040 31/B 01/E 13/O 20/B 00/U 00/U 10/B MLS 025/037 021/044 026/038 018/038 022/045 023/043 021/037 10/B 01/E 01/B 10/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 4BQ 026/037 022/044 029/040 021/041 024/047 026/047 023/037 20/B 00/E 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B BHK 016/033 016/038 019/035 011/036 019/043 022/042 017/034 00/Q 01/B 00/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/B SHR 023/037 017/046 026/043 021/041 019/050 024/048 021/040 41/U 01/E 12/O 21/B 00/U 01/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 65-66.
High Wind Watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon FOR ZONE 141.
WY...None.
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Billings, MT,
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