Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Horton Bay, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 4:55PM Friday November 27, 2020 11:47 PM EST (04:47 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 4:57AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1000 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Saturday through Saturday afternoon...
Overnight..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Scattered rain and snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202011281100;;504229 FZUS53 KAPX 280300 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-281100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horton Bay, MI
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location: 45.31, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 280216 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 916 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 916 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

Small area of precip associated with weak surface cold front and vort max aloft got amped up over northern Lake MI. Decent-ish area of SHSN (mixed at times with SHRA, especially near Lake MI) made inroads into nw and n central lower MI, along with parts of eastern upper MI. However, as the localized forcing moves away from Lake MI, precip is diminishing in coverage and intensity. Expect this to wane further, before eventually exiting east. There was a brief uptick in lake effect clouds/precip behind this initial band, but again this is waning too. Much drier air is poised upstream, and is making inroads across Lake MI. Partial clearing has already reached Leelanau/Benzie Cos, as well as eastern upper MI.

Increased pops in many areas earlier this evening, but precip coverage/intensity will only fall apart from this point. Places along and south of M-32 should become mostly clear overnight, but partly to mostly cloudy skies will linger longer in the north (especially in eastern upper MI).

NEAR TERM. (Through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Positively tilted shortwave trough in the process of pivoting across northern Michigan this afternoon . part of a progressive northern stream flow regime found across central NOAM. While trough axis is largely void of any widespread precipitation, just enough boundary layer moisture and uptick in over-water thermal gradient via attendant cooling H8 layer to likely provide a few light showers yet this afternoon. Temperatures continue to run a touch on the mild side for this time of year, with current readings in the upper 30s and lower 40s a good five or more degrees above specific normal values for today's date.

Shortwave trough exits stage right quickly this evening, with departure of coldest temperature anomalies running just a few hours behind. Building mid level heights and development of rather impressive warm air advection on northern fringes of lower Ohio Valley centered high pressure look to bring dry and seasonably mild conditions much of this weekend.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing lingering light lake effect shower chances this evening and temperature/cloud trends through Saturday.

Details:

Gotta believe we will see at least a few lake-induced rain and snow showers rotate off Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan into this evening as inversion heights exceed 5kft and decent moisture remains in the convective boundary layer. Definitely not looking like a big deal for sure, with at most a few tenths of an inch of snow expected. Any lake effect showers expected to come to an end during the overnight as both subsidence increases and coldest temperatures aloft depart. Likely to even see a scattering out of the cloud cover, with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear by morning across a good portion of northern lower Michigan.

Area will be fully engulfed in warm air advection regime Saturday as weak wave passes by well to our north and surface high pressure settles into the Ohio Valley. Increasingly gusty southwest winds will be the result, at times likely gusting up and over 25 mph by the afternoon. Despite aggressive warming aloft and what should be mostly to partly sunny skies, limited mixing depth should keep temperatures from reaching their full potential. Still, expected highs in the lower and middle 40s are definitely much warmer than one would expect as we head into the waning days of November.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

. Mild then Turning Brisk with Small Snow Chances .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Gusty winds and chilly wind chills Monday.

No big change in the forecast with the mild zonal flow Saturday night into Sunday morning giving way to an incoming moisture starved northern stream trough. It still does not look like this trough will link up with a deepening southern stream feature moving by to our south and east fast enough to realize any significant weather across northern Michigan. Impacts on our area appear to be limited to gusty winds and perhaps a few snow showers late Sunday night into Monday. Northerly winds are expected to become increasingly gusty later Sunday night and especially on Monday which will bring in cooler temperatures. Highs Sunday in the unseasonably mild mid 40s to near 50 will be replaced by highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s Monday. Brisk winds will lead to wind chills only in the teens Monday. Lows Saturday night ranging from around 30 to the mid 30s with mainly the 20s expected for lows Sunday night.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

. Seasonably Chilly then Turning Milder .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Remaining brisk into Tuesday evening with perhaps a few lake induced snow showers. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected with increasing heights for mid to late week (as we watch another system likely move by to our south). Milder air is again expected to make a return to northern Michigan as well as little to no chance of precipitation for the second half of the week. Temperatures will start out near seasonable levels Tuesday then moderate to at least a few degrees above normal for the remainder of the long term. Actually, am not expecting a major pattern change to occur until at least the second week of December and more likely toward the the middle of December.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 643 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

MVFR early then improving to VFR.

A weak cold front is contributing to a small area of -SHRA/-SHSN moving into nw lower MI this evening (PLN presently, perhaps later on at TVC/APN). This is expected to diminish as it moves across the area. Drier air will eventually work in behind the front, with cigs improving and clouds decreasing overnight and Saturday.

Lightish west winds tonight, will back sw and become gustier on Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 310 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

Increasingly gusty southwest winds expected later tonight into Saturday, resulting in small craft advisory conditions on several of our nearshore waters. Southwest winds are expected to slowly decrease in speed heading through Saturday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345>347. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 30 mi68 min WNW 15 G 21 41°F 1016.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 35 mi48 min W 12 G 17 37°F 43°F1013.8 hPa (-0.3)27°F
WSLM4 37 mi48 min W 18 35°F 39°F1015.1 hPa (-0.3)24°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI9 mi73 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast35°F25°F70%1015.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi73 minWNW 9 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F26°F65%1015.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi54 minW 610.00 miOvercast34°F27°F76%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W7W7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSW8
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1 day agoN6N6NE3N4NE4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW8SW10
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2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmCalmNE3E4E4E7NE4E7NE7E6NE6NE8E7NE7NE8NE8N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.