Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Horton Bay, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:13AMSunset 4:52PM Monday December 16, 2019 2:28 AM EST (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:56PMMoonset 11:55AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 957 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am est Monday through Monday afternoon...
Overnight..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Monday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201912161100;;851912 FZUS53 KAPX 160257 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 957 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-161100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horton Bay, MI
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location: 45.31, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 160512 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1212 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 946 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Low amplitude ridging building across the Great Lakes tonight as low level winds continue to back to the southwest. This has pushed any lingering lake effect activity toward the Tip of the Mitt. Snow showers will continue to diminish over the next several hours with weakening wind fields, lowering inversions and decreasing moisture. Still plenty of clouds around overnight, as any breaks in the lake clouds will be replaced by higher clouds on the northern fringe of system passing to our south. Low temperatures generally in the teens, with typically colder locations in the single digits.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 322 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Impactful weather: Light lake effect snow showers, with minimal accumulations.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

An upper level trough slides off to the east as the Great Lakes region sits under surface high pressure. 925mb flow has finally backed to westward with cold 850mb temperatures (about -16C) and lingering moisture. The flow is more anti-cyclonic as said high pressure is moving to the southeast of the forecast area and should back to more southwesterly . or at least west-southwesterly during the evening hours. This anti-cyclonic flow and marginal moisture is producing very light and fluffy snow. Really haven't had many reports during the afternoon, but sure there has been a few places in the favored northwest snowbelts that received a couple inches or possibly more . as some snow ratios were close to 30-40:1 earlier. Radar estimates are around 0.10 inches of QPF where the heavier bands were. Better moisture continues to slide off to the northeast, but the cold 850mb temps should be enough to continue lake clouds and at least light snow/flurries through the night. Snow bands should be transient as this transition continues . but portions of northwest lower will see snow throughout the evening and possibly into overnight . Emmet County for sure. As the pressure gradient tightens overnight . winds will become gusty along and near the Great Lakes shorelines, gusting to 20-25 mph and continuing into the next period of the forecast. Temperatures overnight will drop to the single digits above zero over eastern upper and the teens over northwest lower as CAA continues.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 322 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

. Another push of cold air and lake effect snows midweek .

High Impact Weather Potential: Some heavier lake effect snow in the snowbelts . gusty winds and low wind chills for later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad long-wave troughing remains in place across the CONUS with ridging along the west coast and a strong W-E jet component cutting through the central Plains to the central east coast. Surface high pressure is building into the lower Great Lakes with lingering but diminishing NW flow lake snow showers. Surface low pressure is across Texas with an inverted surface trough nosing north/east through the Appalachians.

Through the early going of the short term, weather will remain on the quieter side as surface high pressure settles across the lower Great Lakes through Monday. A weak wave passing through Ontario on Monday pushes a weak cold front into northern Michigan and likely to push some lighter lake snows back into the region, particularly the eastern U.P. But, stronger piece of northern stream energy/attending strong cold front and shot of very cold air takes aim on the region for later Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring more substantial snowfall into the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Heavier lake effect snow potential later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Details: As mentioned, Monday/Monday night and even into Tuesday should remain on the quieter side. Weak cold front will sag down into northern Michigan with modestly colder air spreading into the region. This will be enough to push lake snow showers back into parts of eastern Upper Michigan, and possibly parts of NW Lower Michigan, although overall lake effect conditions remain paltry (dry airmass/lower inversions/low lake induced CAPE). But things improve considerably Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as a northern stream closed mid level low/sharp cold front descends out of Canada into the Great Lakes bringing a core of very cold air (-22C to -26C H8 temps per Euro forecasts) into the region by Wednesday morning. Likely to be a batch of enhanced snowfall along the front that drops down through the region Tuesday afternoon/evening followed by a period of lake effect snows and dropping temperatures later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Lake effect conditions behind the front look decent especially later Tuesday night into Wednesday with sharp cyclonic flow/moisture and several hundred J/KG lake induced CAPE (moderate to extreme per BufKit). Still too early to talk accumulations specifically. But couple accumulating snow with dropping temps/gusty winds and lowering wind chills and it's looking increasingly likely we will need a smattering of winter weather headlines through that time. No headlines planned at this juncture, but we will beef up wording in the HWO as well as start to focus messaging for that timeframe.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 322 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Moderating temperatures through the balance of the week with periodic light snowfall.

Larger scale pattern change still appears in the works for the middle and latter half of the week as long-wave ridging off the west coast breaks down . giving way to long-wave troughing heading into next weekend. This usually signals a warm up across the CONUS as warmer air spreads back through the central and eventually eastern CONUS. Of course being in the northern Great Lakes we are often on the fringe of and never too far away from colder air/deeper troughing through central and eastern Canada. But signs are there that we get some moderating temperatures for the latter half of the week and next weekend, at least back to around normal if not a little above.

Overall precipitation/snowfall potential through this stretch remains low.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1212 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Lingering lake effect snow shower activity will end overnight with lower cigs replaced by mid/upper level cloud deck on the northern edge of a storm system passing by to our south. Quiet through much of Monday with VFR conditions before another weak disturbance and associated frontal boundary slides into the area Monday night. This system will produce little more than a few flurries but will result in lowering cigs toward MVFR. Winds generally AOB 10kts from the west/southwest through Monday, with some higher gusts possible at PLN. Winds will veer to the northwest Monday night.

MARINE. Issued at 950 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Winds continue to back more WSW tonight, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The gradient will tighten later tonight and small craft gusts are likely over portions of northern Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay.

Additional marine headlines are likely later Tuesday into Wednesday as a stronger storm system moves into the area.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ341- 342-344. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321.

UPDATE . JK NEAR TERM . TL SHORT TERM . BA LONG TERM . BA AVIATION . SMD MARINE . TL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 30 mi49 min WSW 20 G 24 27°F 1019.3 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 35 mi59 min SSW 8 G 9.9 23°F 35°F1017.2 hPa16°F
WSLM4 37 mi89 min SW 19 27°F 34°F1017.7 hPa (+0.0)15°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI9 mi34 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast25°F18°F76%1017.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi34 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F16°F66%1017.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi35 minS 410.00 miOvercast23°F15°F72%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW9SW6SW4NW3NW3N3CalmNW4N4NW4N3N4NW4NW5NW7NW7NW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.