Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Horton Bay, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 9:20PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 8:03 AM EDT (12:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 12:07AM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 248 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming variable 10 knots or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Light winds. Patchy fog. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202005272000;;817106 FZUS53 KAPX 270648 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 248 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-272000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horton Bay, MI
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location: 45.31, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 271049 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 649 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

. More of the same .

High impact weather potential: Non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening producing brief intense rainfall rates.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Area remains centered under moisture rich and unseasonably warm weather producing deep layer southwest flow between east coast centered subtropical ridge and shearing trough back across the Plains. Diurnally-driven shower and storms from yesterday have largely ended, leaving dry and muggy conditions early this morning across the Northwoods. Most active weather still well to our west and southwest, the former driven by northern part of shearing trough and upper level jet core, with the latter driven by deepening closed mid level circulation across northern Texas.

Slow east progression to the larger scale features expected today and tonight, allowing weak upstream cold front/surface trough to gradually work into the region. Plenty of warm and humid air ahead of this front, kicking off more showers and storms today . with some of the activity likely persisting through tonight as that front approaches.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing the potential for more showers and thunderstorms.

Details: Expect another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as temperatures well up into the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s generates in excess of 1k joules/kg of mixed layer cape. Guidance derived soundings show little in the way of convective inhibition, with convective temperatures easily being reached this afternoon. Once again, not seeing much in the way of any large scale ascent, leaving more subtle surface convergence features (orographic lift and perhaps some weak lake breeze convergence) and possible upstream convectively induced waves to drive initial shower/storm initiation . with subsequent initiation and propagation driven by outflow boundaries. Cape profiles not quite as robust up through the mid levels as the last few days. While this may preclude any severe threat, it does favor the potential for some very heavy rainfall rates with any more organized convection. Deep layer southwest flow should keep cells fairly transient, keeping any flood threat minimal . although brief ponding on area roadways appears likely.

Expect showers/storms to fade this evening, with uncertainty increasing overnight with regards to additional shower and thunderstorm chances as that weak front works into the area. Mid level support is minimal at best, with forcing detached well to our north and south. Simple breadth of moisture (precipitable water values up and over 1.50 inches) argues for at least carrying chance pops right through the overnight, especially so across eastern upper Michigan Once again. nothing severe expected, but support remains for some briefly heavier rain rates with any thunderstorm activity. Definitely another warm and muggy night, with lows mostly remaining in the 60s south of the big bridge.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

. Heavy rain Thursday, then a cooling trend .

High Impact Weather Potential: High: Any heavy rain falling on top of saturated soils will only exacerbate flooding concerns in the Saginaw Bay region.

Synopsis/Forecast: Our recent stretch of strong ridging over the Great Lakes starts to break down in the face of a wave digging through Ontario Thursday. This wave looks to phase with a cutoff low moving up from the southern states. Dynamical lift overspreading the area as the waves phase will combine with plenty of moisture leading to heavy rain through Thursday and Thursday night . over areas that have already had flooding concerns and are still dealing with saturated soils.

Details: Heading into Thursday the northern stream wave helps a broad surface low gets its act together over Northern Ontario. This will help push a cold front across the region through the day. Out ahead of this front PWATs remain near 1.5" (as they have the past few days), and we'll have some good diurnal heating . forecast soundings suggest skinny cape between 500 and 1000 Joules, and a 12 kft warm cloud layer, leading to very efficient rain production. We're still in marginal heavy rain risk from WPC . and as of now 24 hour QPF totals of 1.0-2.0" look to be in order across northern lower, with less (around a half inch) in eastern upper. Forcing increases Thursday night (in the form of -DivQ) along the phasing waves. Unfortunately this coincides with enhanced moisture convergence along the nose of a low level jet as well as broadscale lift in the right entrance of a 100-120 kt UL jet in Ontario.

High temperatures for Thursday occur before the frontal passage, thus exact highs are tricky and will depend on exact timing of the front. With the passage of the front 850mb temps and PWATs take a nosedive Thursday night . ushering in cooler air for Friday and heading into the weekend. Highs look to be around normal, near 70 degrees. Friday overall brings a reprieve from the heavier rain but scattered showers remain possible through the morning thanks to a secondary front passing through.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

Temperatures continue to tumble into the weekend, with high temperatures falling below normal, thanks to high pressure moving in behind the front. Believe there's good potential for frost late Saturday night as the core of the high settles over the region, leading to light winds and clear skies. As the airmass modifies and heights start to rise the beginning of next week looks to warm up to near or slightly above normal again. A couple of waves passing through the Great Lakes region will bring more scattered shower and thunder chances.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 648 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

More of the same expected as morning passing high clouds gives way to an increasing cumulus field. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop by this afternoon . continuing into the evening. May see a few of this impact the taf locations, although high uncertainty with regards to exact timing and overall coverage precludes any specific mention in this forecast just yet . using vicinity wording as an initial guess. Any storms will be capable of brief periods of gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. Winds will remain light through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

Warm, muggy, and at times wet weather will continue across the big waters through Thursday. Southwest winds will continue, remaining well below advisory levels given the extremely stable over-water conditions. Of course, any thunderstorms that do form will be capable of producing erratic and gusty winds. A passing cold front swings the winds around to northwest later Thursday into Thursday night, with northwest winds continuing right into the start of the weekend. Trends supporting both winds and waves mostly remaining below advisory levels through this period, although cannot completely rule out a few advisory winds gusts on Friday. This weekend will be drier, but much cooler.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 30 mi24 min S 4.1 G 8.9 73°F 1015.2 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 35 mi46 min N 1.9 G 2.9 52°F 47°F1014.3 hPa50°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI9 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair71°F70°F99%1014.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi68 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy-3°F-22°F37%1014.6 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair67°F64°F93%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3SW4S4SW4SW5SW5CalmSW5CalmE3E5CalmCalmSE4E6NE7CalmE4NE3CalmCalm
1 day agoE4E5E5E3SW3SW6SW4CalmS3CalmE3E5E6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmN3NE3Calm
2 days agoNE7E6E3E4CalmSW3NW5SW7SW5W6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3N3NE3NE4E3E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.