Saturday, June12, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Horton Bay, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 9:32PM Saturday June 12, 2021 10:16 AM EDT (14:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:23AMMoonset 10:44PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 331 Am Edt Sat Jun 12 2021
Today..East wind 5 to 15 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms early in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms for the remainder of the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202106121545;;132778 FZUS53 KAPX 120731 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 331 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-121545-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horton Bay, MI
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location: 45.31, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 121009 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 609 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Impactful weather: Minimal. More showers and storms. Locally heavy downpours, but no significant severe weather expected.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A shortwave was dropped into far srn lower Michigan early this morning, on the forward flank of upper ridging poking through the western Great Lakes. A more defined shortwave was seen lifting NNE through Manitoba, which was ejecting vorticity maxima/other shortwave activity over the ridging, and flattening it out to some degree. One of these waves was resulting in some spotty convection upstream across the western half of upper Michigan and Wisconsin, north of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary, aided by a weak pocket of theta-e convergence and upper divergence. Overall deep layer forcing was weak.

This initial wave/vorticity maxima will roll through the region this morning, bringing chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two in an environment of weak 0-6km bulk/effective shear in the upper teens to lower 20kts, and MUCAPES of only 200-400j/kg. This is not exciting at all. As daytime heating gets going through the day, another shallow shortwave is expected to cross nrn Michigan. This will provide at least some assistance to better convection, expected mostly within lake breeze convergence areas in interior areas of northern Michigan, especially NE lower Michigan. MLCAPES will get into the 750-1500j/kg range in nrn lower Michigan (way lower in eastern upper), with freezing levels down about 1000 feet from yesterday, to 12.5kft, and 0-6km bulk/effective shear increases to around 30kts. While no severe weather is really anticipated, you can never rule out an isolated wind/hail threat, but it isn't exactly likely. Locally heavy downpours are likely again however.

The axis of deeper moisture with the wave departs east through this evening, while the loss of heating will diminish the instability. Chances for thunder falls off, and by midnight, most any convective activity will be diminished or pressed off to the east for the overnight hours, while drier air advects into nrn Michigan.

High temperatures today will be tricky due to cloud cover and the front drifting through nrn Michigan. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 70s in eastern upper and far nrn/NE lower, where clouds prevail more north/east of the front, to the upper 70s and lower 80s south and west of there. Lows tonight behind the passing cold front will be in the low to mid 50s most areas.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

. Lower Humidity with Showers Becoming Possible .

High impact weather: None is expected.

A nearly zonal flow aloft will lead to seasonable temperatures and likely rain free conditions during the day Sunday. Increasing troughing in combination with an upper level disturbance moving through the flow could then bring a few showers to the region Sunday night into Monday (but unfortunately nothing widespread or significant is expected). Highs Sunday ranging from the low and mid 70s across eastern upper to the upper 70s to mid 80s across northern lower. Lows Sunday night mainly in the 50s. Highs Monday in the mid 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels will be in the comfortable range.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

. Seasonable Temperatures for the Most Part .

High impact weather potential: None is expected at this time.

A very strong and expansive upper level ridge (600 dm!) will be centered across the Four Corners region through the long term. This system will force downstream troughing through mid-week across the Great Lakes. The eastern extent of the ridge then temporarily expands into our region on Thursday only to be knocked down by a northern stream trough by Friday. So expect seasonable temperatures for the most part except for a brief return to very warm conditions on Thursday. Precipitation free conditions for much of the period, except for shower chances toward the end of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 609 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Eastward moving showers and storms are expected to gradually diminish this morning, while exiting PLN by forecast issuance time, but may impact APN briefly. A quiet period of time is then anticipated until a disturbance aloft arrives this afternoon and evening, combining with diurnal heating/destabilization, to aid in the development of additional showers and storms around all airports. Convection will fade through this evening, with skies clearing up some through the overnight hours, as drier air filters into the region.

A period of MVFR CIGS are expected at PLN for a time this morning, and may impact APN as well. Otherwise, VFR the remainder of the TAF period, unless impacted by convection.

MARINE. Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Generally stable conditions will continue over the Great Lakes this weekend, with a loose pressure gradient over the region today and tonight, resulting in afternoon lake breezes in most nearshores again today. A cold front does cross the region later today through tonight, allowing a tighter pressure gradient for Sunday and Sunday night, but advisory level winds are still not anticipated attm. A disturbance aloft, combined with the front, will bring additional chances for showers and some thunderstorms, especially for Lakes Superior and Michigan today, and then for Lake Huron later today through this evening. No severe storms are expected at this time. Another chance of showers arrives Sunday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 8 mi16 min E 9.7 G 12 60°F 55°F1013.2 hPa (-0.3)
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 30 mi36 min SSE 2.9 G 6 68°F 1012.2 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 35 mi46 min E 4.1 G 7 58°F 56°F1011.7 hPa57°F
45194 36 mi46 min 56°F 53°F1 ft
WSLM4 37 mi106 min ENE 11 58°F 55°F1012.9 hPa57°F
45175 38 mi21 min E 5.8 G 5.8 59°F 59°F1 ft1013.4 hPa58°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI9 mi21 minENE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F57°F76%1012.5 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi21 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F58°F70%1012.2 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi22 minESE 610.00 miFair65°F58°F78%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE7E5CalmSW5SW4SW5SW3E8E6NE6NE8E7E6E5NE8E6NE4NE7E9E11
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2 days agoE9E11E13NE11E9
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E10E7E7E5E5E6NE6E7E9NE5E11E8E12E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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