Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 040950 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 550 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 203 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/none. Maybe some marine stratus and fog floating around.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Fairly zonal flow aloft early this morning, although there was a closed upper low spinning over Quebec/Newfoundland, and a rather shallow shortwave and associated showers seen in Saskatchewan. Most all of the action/convection was focused around and south of a quasi- stationary frontal boundary from KS-IA-srn lower Michigan where all the better moisture and greatest instability resides. Here in nrn Michigan, things were very quiet, with a dry air mass leading to mostly clear skies, as well as fairly light winds. There was a weak shortwave seen moving into western WI, where some clouds were expanding, otherwise nothing of note anywhere around with weak sfc high pressure in the western and nrn Great Lakes.

Not really much to talk about through tonight. The flow aloft stays rather zonal, with some very shallow mid level ridging moving in overhead today, followed by the aforementioned shortwave from Saskatchewan. Not much in the way of advections today, with a weak pressure gradient leading to the development of lake breezes, which always means analyzing the fcst soundings for potential showers and/or storms in the lake breeze convergence, which should convergence in interior eastern upper and nrn lower. Bottom line, there is just not enough moisture almost all areas for the development of any showers. The only area that seems to have a chance will be around the Houghton Lake/Cadillac/West Branch/Gladwin areas, where there could be as much as 500-700 MLCAPE and no cap to break.

Any convection will fade with nightfall. The shortwave will make progress into the western great Lakes late tonight, with weak low pressure making it into western Ontario, and an ill-defined warm front and theta-e advection lifting into Lake Michigan. Could be some showers by daybreak sneaking into our neck of the woods, but the better chances for rain hold off for Friday (see below).

Will be using the bias corrected model guidance, as it has been better at late spring/early summer warm temperatures. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s in eastern upper to the upper 70s to lower 80s in eastern upper, and the low to middle 80s in nrn lower. Cooler readings along the lakeshores. Lows tonight will mainly range through the 50s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

. Rain showers on Friday with possible storms late .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now. Watching thunderstorm potential for Friday afternoon/evening.

Synopsis/Forecast: Through friday a shortwave and attendant PV anomaly digs slowly southeast from western Ontario through the Upper Great Lakes. Saturday the wave continues its ESE progress as ridging pumps up through the Mississippi Valley. Showers and potential storms late Friday will give way to drier and cooler conditions for Saturday.

Details: Convection is expected to fire overnight near the MN/WI border along the cold front, and will move toward Michigan toward daybreak. Most guidance has this convection weakening as it crosses the cool lake Michigan, so we'll likely end up with scattered showers with potentially brief pockets of heavy rain Friday morning. A weak surface warm front creeps north over Michgian through the morning in response to the surface low cutting through southwest Ontario. Our SSW winds veer out the west with the passage of the cold front, which looks to move through Nrn Lower around mid-day. We mix out around this time as well, and should realize some surface- based instability of 750 and 1500 Joules (depending on chosen guidance). This combined with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s, a corridor of enhanced LL moisture along the front, and bulk shear values between 40 and 50 kts we stand a good chance of seeing some more afternoon thunder. The greatest threat exists south of M-32. The best instability and shear struggle to overlap however, as the jet doesn't sag south across more of the area until after peak surface heating. Think the potential for large hail and/or tornadoes can be safely ruled out given unidirectional shear and relatively weak CAPE in the hail growth region with meager lapse rates. The greatest threat will be wind gusts with DCAPE progged to be at least 500 Joules.

The threat quickly diminishes as the front exits to the southeast. Overnight lows will be mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s. High pressure and drier air filter in for Saturday with a less humid afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 70s, back to near normal and a good ten degrees cooler than on Friday.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Sunday starts quiet with dry northeasterly flow. Later in the day and overnight a shortwave overtopping the ridge may generate some additional clouds and precip chances. Some guidance is suggesting another MCS-type convective feature will scoot through the big lakes during this time. Early next week the remnants of T.C. Cristobal get picked up by the jet, but guidance is very spread out with how this energy is handled past early Tuesday. There is a least the potential for this to have a large impact on our sensible weather for midweek. Temperatures trend back to above normal with highs running in the 70s and even 80s by Tuesday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 550 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Another day of mostly sunny skies, light winds and afternoon lake breezes, as weak low pressure moves into Ontario late today into tonight. Mid and upper clouds do increase late tonight in advance of the low pressure, but outside of some potential coastal marine stratus and fog, conditions will be VFR through the TAF period.

MARINE. Issued at 203 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

A weak pressure gradient and overlake stability today and tomorrow will continue to result in sub-advisory winds/waves. Maybe some marine stratus/fog to deal with, mainly at night and in the morning. Chances for showers increase late tonight, but mainly Friday, ahead of a cold front, which will try to turn winds more out of the west. More variable directions are likely however, due to the weak gradient, which may lead to afternoon lake breezes.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	17 mi	63 min	E 1.9 G 4.1	55°F			1009.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	43 mi	55 min	NNW 2.9 G 4.1	57°F	55°F		1009.1 hPa	53°F
45175	44 mi	34 min	S 5.8 G 5.8	53°F	52°F		1010 hPa	51°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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W7 G11

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SE2 G5

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SW6 G9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI	1 mi	48 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	60°F	54°F	81%	1009.1 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI	20 mi	48 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	60°F	58°F	95%	1009.5 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	22 mi	48 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	63°F	54°F	75%	1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)

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SW9 G17

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Calm

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SW7

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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