Wednesday, April14, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday April 14, 2021 6:18 AM EDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 10:11PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 418 Am Edt Wed Apr 14 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Thursday night...
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Patchy fog. Numerous rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202104141630;;528598 FZUS53 KAPX 140818 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 418 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-141630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 140743 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 343 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

. Chilly .

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Upper low is merrily spinning away in the DLH area, having moved hardly at all over the last 24 hours. It is actually starting to translate eastward, and it should move over far ne lower MI by sunset. Whereupon it will start drifting again, probably southward down toward the Thumb. The arrival of a deeply cool airmass with steep lapse rates and cyclonically curved flow will result in showery wx returning.

Surface low pressure is broad and disorganized, extending from just north of DLH to a bit south of James Bay. Sw low-level flow is resulting in cold advection, and that will continue as winds veer w or wnw today. Pressure rises over Superior will contribute to a nw 1000-850mb fetch developing tonight, veering all the way to north into eastern upper MI toward morning.

Snow is falling in central upper MI. Cigs are lowering in western parts of this forecast area, with weak returns seen on APX radar. This still looks like virga or perhaps sprinkles/flurries at this instant, but a few convective elements are emerging, and precip chances will slowly ramp up. Those convective elements reflect the beginnings of rapidly cooling temps in the 800-700mb layer, and associated steepening lapse rates. In addition, 850mb temps bottoming out at -7/-8c this morning is just barely enough for Lake MI to offer some assistance.

Will start the morning with chancy pops, mainly Benzie/Leelanau Cos and nearby areas pre-dawn, migrating to CVX/PLN and western Chip/Mack Cos toward and after sunrise. Pops increase to likely late this morning in the broader Straits region. Likely pops continue thru the rest of the day over eastern upper, far n central and ne lower MI (PLN to APN). Though temps will warm a fair bit above freezing between showers, the loss of latent heat as falling precip evaps and/or melts will lower temps back into the range where snow will at least mix in, if not be the dominant p-type. Some coastal areas will be more successful at staying mostly rain. Not expecting accums of any significance today, given warm surface temps and diurnal effects. Maybe some grassy areas get briefly slushy.

Tonight, a plume of deeper moisture will rotate into the area overnight, as the upper low hovers overhead or just east. Likely pops will work fine in northern sections to start the evening, but these will expand across most of northern MI toward and past midnight. As we move past sunset, precip will very gradually tend toward less rain and more snow. Think the BL and ground temps will still limit any accums at our lower elevations. But perhaps a little bit of slushy snow will accum on grassy areas over the higher terrain of northern lower. Presently have up to 0.5" of snow from CAD to Kalkaska and GLR. Less than that elsewhere. Not expecting air/surface temps will be cold enough for roads to get icy.

Max temps today within a few degrees of 40f across most of the forecast area, though APN and southward in ne lower MI will take a run at the mid-upper 40s. Lows tonight around 30f to the lower 30s.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed upper-level low centered over the Great Lakes will slide to the SE on Thursday as an associated surface low works its way into the New England states, weakening with time. An ill-defined pattern with weak winds throughout the vertical profile then sets up across the region heading into the weekend as the closed low progresses out towards the Atlantic.

Forecast/Details:

Precip is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across a swath of northern Michigan as a result of relatively weak frontogenetical forcing on the backside of the departing system. Continued cold advection from northwesterly low-level flow will foster cool temperatures once again on Thursday, potentially leading to snowfall mixing with rain for some, especially across interior areas at higher elevations. Surface temperatures Thursday morning and Thursday evening may dip down into the low/mid 30s with only a very thin layer above the ground actually being above freezing as temperatures cool quickly with height. This could support wet flakes reaching the ground before melting. While much in the way of accumulations isn't expected given recent warmth across the Great Lakes, a few tenths certainly can't be ruled out across any areas that experience heavier precip/snowfall rates for an extended time. Expectation is that this precip will depart to the east Friday morning with some drier air moving in on the backside. Some gustier winds of 20-30 mph are possible through Thursday evening before winds die back down as the pressure gradient relaxes across northern Michigan. Highs may struggle to warm much into the 40s on Thursday before warming some back up into the low 50s on Friday.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

As stated in the short term, an ill-defined pattern is expected to be in place across the Great Lakes through the weekend into early next week. Very weak winds will be present through the entirety of the vertical profile as little to no forcing should exist to spark precip chances before the beginning of next week. In fact, it would be very difficult to get a weaker vertical wind profile in place for this time of year. This won't last forever though as a shortwave looks to rotate down into the region in the late Monday/early Tuesday timeframe as a cold front swings through the Great Lakes, bringing northern Michigan its next round of precip chances. While still nearly a week away, northerly/northwesterly winds behind the front may bring some colder temps to the region with high temperatures of 10-15 degrees below normal possible during the middle of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1152 PM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021

VFR conditions will trend toward more MVFR today into tonight as upper level low pressure works its way into the area. May even see some rain and snow showers at times, but nothing too significant expected. Light winds through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Sw to w winds are in place, ahead of weakening low pressure near Duluth. The low will move to our east, and strengthen somewhat tonight, resulting in gusty nw winds developing on Lake MI. Small craft advisories will likely be needed on many of our Lake MI waters at a minimum, for part of tonight and early Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . mb MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi39 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 42°F 1017.6 hPa
WSLM4 37 mi49 min WSW 6 38°F 37°F1017.1 hPa32°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi49 min E 1 G 1 39°F 43°F1015.7 hPa36°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi24 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F34°F85%1016.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi24 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F34°F91%1016.9 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi24 minN 010.00 miOvercast40°F34°F79%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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W9W9SW7SW7SW6CalmSW3SW3SW3W4CalmCalm
1 day agoE4E6E3CalmCalmE4E3W8W7W4W4W7CalmS3SE3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW5S5S5
2 days agoNE11E7E3E8E3CalmSW6W7W3SW7SW7E3NW6N3NW3NW6NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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