Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:30PM Monday August 26, 2019 4:58 AM EDT (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:10AMMoonset 5:02PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 415 Am Edt Mon Aug 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late Tuesday night...
Today..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201908261615;;225378 FZUS53 KAPX 260815 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 415 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-261615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 260615
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
215 am edt Mon aug 26 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 214 am edt Mon aug 26 2019
impactful weather: minimal. Decent rain expected with a slight
chance of garden-variety thunderstorms tonight. No severe storms.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
high pressure was well east of the region early this morning, with
low pressure and a cold front through the plains. Aloft, we were
getting some better SW flow, with weak dpva and warm and moist
advection resulting in increasing cloudiness across NRN michigan. The
pressure gradient was also continuing to tighten, and keeping a 5-10
mph SE wind going. This was keeping temperatures much more mild than
this time the last few days. Current temperatures were in the mid
50s to lower 60s. The deeper moisture and strongest instability was
just ahead of the main upper trough and cold front in the nrn
plains, as well as with a shortwave trough, weak low pressure and
more marginal instability lifting through the lower half of the
mississippi valley. Numerous areas of convection were in these
areas.

Heading through the day, we will continue to see the atmosphere
saturate with skies becoming cloudy. Increasing dpva and upper
divergence, and especially LLJ theta-e advection, will result in
showers spreading from the gtv bay region in the early half of the
afternoon, to the NE through late afternoon and tonight. The
strongest deep layer -divq will be tonight, forcing aided by low
level convergence associated with the arrival of a warm front, and
approach of a cold front, both associated with a sfc low working
into western lake superior. All of NRN michigan will see periods of
showers tonight. There is little to no instability seen today, and
thus no chance for thunder. However for tonight, fcst soundings do
suggest 400-800j kg of MUCAPE for at least a slight chance for
thunderstorms. No severe storms for sure.

High temperatures for today will be in the mid to upper 70s most
areas, with mild lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower half of the
60s.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 214 am edt Mon aug 26 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal
pattern synopsis and forecast:
broad upper level troughing will remain over the great lakes region
throughout the forecast period. An upper level low over hudson bay
will stretch into the midwest Tuesday and into the southeastern
states by Wednesday. This will create periods of showers and cloudy
skies over the entire forecast area through at least Thursday and
possibly beyond. Tuesday a cold front associated with the attendant
surface low pressure system near hudson bay approaches from the west
across the forecast area with southerly winds advecting gulf
moisture. More widespread heavier precipitation associated with this
front will diminish by the afternoon hours. Said front should be
nearly through the first half of northern lower by the beginning of
this forecast period... With heavier more widespread rain being over
eastern upper and northeast lower. This will continue to move off to
the east and become more spotty showers through the remaining
forecast period with the broad upper level troughiness and lingering
moisture. Rainfall amounts Tuesday morning over the more widespread
rain will be from 0.25-0.50" of additional rainfall that fell from
the previous forecast period (Monday evening night). Late Tuesday
evening night, northern michigan becomes dry slotted, with rain
clearing out, but with some clouds remaining as broad upper level
troughing and lingering moisture remain overhead. A moisture plume
with associated shortwave traversing the broad upper level troughing
with 850mb temperatures around 6c will produce lake effect clouds
and rain Wednesday as lake temperatures are 20-21c. Winds will have
a southerly component through Tuesday afternoon evening, until
aforementioned cold front moves through and veers winds to more
westerly. Winds each day could gusts up to 20-25 mph, even closer to
30 mph Wednesday with the cold air advection. Daytime temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 70s, while the westerly winds will
advect a bit cooler temperatures for Wednesday... Only reaching into
the mid 60s to low 70s, Thursday will be a bit warmer for some, with
temperatures possibly nearing upper 70s near saginaw bay.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 214 am edt Mon aug 26 2019
high impact weather... None is expected.

Broad troughing mentioned in previous forecast period will continue
to produce periodic showers through Friday for northern michigan.

High pressure and drier air then move in late Friday and should
produce a rather pleasant beginning to the holiday
weekend... Although beginning to be a bit cooler, with daytime
temperatures reaching into the upper 60s to near 70.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1151 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
high pressure continues to move east away from new england, while
a cold front advances into the western dakotas. Mid high clouds
are increasing ahead of the incoming system, though precip is
still a long ways off. QuietVFR tonight into Monday morning,
though showers will push into NW lower mi after 18z. MVFR
cigs vsbys possible in NW lower mi after precip arrives in the
afternoon. Ifr conditions become more common Monday evening as
cigs vsbys worsen.

Light SE winds overnight, but will become somewhat gusty again on
Monday. Llws by late Monday evening.

Marine
Issued at 214 am edt Mon aug 26 2019
low pressure and it's cold front, along with periods of showers,
arrive through the day today, and will continue into Tuesday. There
is also a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight, but nothing close
to severe. SE winds will continue to increase through tonight, and
result in gusty advisory level conditions for all nearshore
waters over this time. Directions will turn wsw behind the cold
front on Tuesday, with speeds only slightly weakening. The lake
michigan nearshore waters will need a continued advisory headline.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm edt Tuesday
for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 6 am edt
Wednesday for lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm edt Tuesday
for lsz321-322.

Near term... Smd
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Jz
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 11 mi28 min E 14 G 16 63°F 69°F1 ft1019.3 hPa61°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi74 min S 4.1 G 13 63°F 1018.6 hPa
WSLM4 37 mi58 min E 6 63°F 63°F1018.9 hPa (-0.6)57°F
45183 38 mi58 min SSE 9.7 G 12 66°F 66°F1018.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi58 min SE 7 G 8.9 61°F 64°F1019.7 hPa (-0.8)
45175 44 mi29 min ESE 9.7 G 12 63°F 65°F1 ft1019 hPa60°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi2.7 hrsESE 310.00 miFair64°F56°F78%1020 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi2.3 hrsE 410.00 miFair61°F59°F93%1019.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair60°F56°F89%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5--SE4SE4CalmSE6SE5SE3E7E5E9E8E10
G15
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SE5SE5SE6------E3E5
1 day agoSE3SE3SE4SE5SE4SE4S3N3NW5N6NW8NW8N9NW8N7N9NE7E6E9--E6------
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3N3N6N9N8N9N8N9
G14
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N8NW6N7N4NE6NE4NE4--CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.