Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 181152 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 652 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

. Snow, heavy at times today .

High Impact Weather Potential: Moderate to at times heavy snow. Gusty winds, blowing and drifting snow.

1007mb surface low is in western IA. Warm/moist advection ahead of the low is resulting in a broad shield of precip well to its east. This is advancing into northern lower MI early this morning, in the form of light snow. Radar returns are less than 25dBz in most places, and vsbys are generally 1-3SM where the snow has started. The low will move quickly east today, crossing northern lower MI this afternoon. More widespread and heavier precip will occur today, especially in the 1st half of the day, with some potential for lake enhancement in se low-level flow. Once the low departs, lake-enhanced to lake-effect snow will continue tonight.

Our first push of precip into the area has run out of steam a bit; the leading edge of snow is making only slow northward progress. That will change as we approach sunrise, as much more substantial 500mb height falls displace the ridging that is still holding on aloft. This corresponds with a potent shortwave, rotating around the parent 500mb closed low in nw MN, taking on a negative tilt as it swings toward Lake MI this morning. This will provide a much stronger burst of dynamics and forcing. Widespread, heavier precip covers much of IL, and it is this that will work northward and translate into heavier QPF in northern MI. Moderate to heavy snow will overspread most or all of northern MI this morning, with the St Marys Valley taking the longest.

Though a slug of healthy snow is inbound, one thing that will hold accums back is relatively low snow-liquid ratios. A deep isothermal layer is present in Nam Bufr soundings today, but it is warmer than desired, between -5 and -10C. Even in eastern upper MI, this leads to a rather narrow DGZ thru much of today, and a deep warmer layer beneath. By perhaps mid and especially late afternoon, the DGZ becomes much deeper in eastern upper MI, and this process plays out in northern lower MI this evening. Snow-liquid ratios will be much higher tonight as we transition to lake effect.

A back edge of heavier precip will make some inroads into northern lower MI by midday, indicative of some temporarily drier mid-level air. No good surface low passage is complete without a little freezing drizzle mixing in in the middle of the event, and places near/south of M-72 have the best chance for seeing it. This should not be high-impact, as roads should be snow-covered and not prone to developing a glaze of ice. Deeper moisture will fill back in behind the intial drier wedge, before mid-level drying starts work back into the sw beginning late today.

Se winds, and 850mb temps of around -8C over northern Lake Huron, will generate lake enhancement into far se portions of upper MI. (Lesser enhancement is expected further south into the APN/Rogers area of northern lower, where 850mb temps upstream are warmer.) Thus, despite the somewhat later arrival time for snow up there, the heaviest snowfall looks to occur in se Chippewa and eastern Mackinac Cos. Near-term numeric guidance is emphatic on this scenario, favoring 7 to 9" of snow. Given wind and blowing/drifting snow concerns, feel reasonably confident in upgrading that area to a winter storm warning. This has already been done.

For tonight, the upstream mid-level dry punch stalls out, aided by the close passage of the closed 500mb over Superior and north of Georgian Bay. Colder air gradually wraps back into the region, mainly overnight, reaching the mid minus teens at 850mb. In northern lower MI, an initial wnw fetch become nnw with time, with snow showers remaining widespread in those associated snowbelts. Eastern upper MI starts with light winds, before a north to even (very unfavorable) nne fetch develops. This will suppress lake effect/enhancement there tonight, and perhaps snow shower activity will wane over far eastern upper MI overnight. More in the way of accums is expected in nw lower MI, with the caveat that initial delta Ts are a little marginal, and the winds will be veering with time. Have some general 2-4" accums tonight near-west of I-75 in nw lower MI, highest in Kalkaska Co and environs.

Max temps today mid 20s to mid 30s. Min temps tonight teens to lower 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

. Lake Effect, Does It End? .

High Impact Weather Potential . Lake Effect continues into Sunday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Sunday, models show that the LES should be plentiful, except that the wind direction will be North to NNE This takes E upper out of the LES for the day, with maybe some snow near Whitefish Point. otherwise, as the lake aggregate trough sinks south, then the winds over Lake Michigan begin to veer to the NE, before backing to the North and possibly NNW by 00z/Mon. Almost all of the models, including some of the CAMS models are beginning to show that the snow diminishes to flurries, and then dry air moves in overnight, and warmer 850 mb temperatures. The models show flurries in Upper Michigan at 12z/Mon, and the dry air is moving into the N Lower and N Lake Michigan by 18z/Mon. Any Light snow amounts in the morning will probably be followed by minor amounts or flurries by the afternoon. Between 00z/Tue and 06z/Tue, the 850 mb temperatures warm above -10c which begins to lower the delta Ts to <13c, especially by 12z/Tue when both the GFS and the ECMWF are around -8C, which would put the delta Ts around 12c or lower.

Primary Forecast Concerns . Several days ago, the models showed that the LES would last for several days. As we have gotten closer to this time frame, the models have backed off on that idea, with dry air and eventually, warmer 850 temperatures to end the snow by Monday some time. As tough as LES is, the diminishing snow is looking more likely with the expected dry air to push into the region starting Sunday night. That's not to say that an overachieving band isn't possible, but the likelihood decreases with time before the next system is expected to get going (Wednesday night? see below).

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Maybe a storm by the end of the week?

Extended (Tuesday through Friday) . The winds remain favorable Tuesday morning with a favorable temperature profile on the GFS. The ECMWF is slightly warming lowering the delta TS to around 13C. However, by Tuesday evening, the high is moving through the Ohio Valley, and puts the Upper Great Lakes in the return flow, and thus with warmer and drier air. So the LES looks to end by the Tuesday afternoon/evening. The next system looks to affect the region on Wednesday. The ECMWF has a mix on during Wednesday afternoon changing to snow (The amounts look minor at this point). While the GFS start snow until early Thursday morning. Both models slow the precipitation down during Thursday. Friday morning the models begin to diverge quite a bit. The ECMWF is dry as the 500 mb low digs into the Lower Ohio Valley and develops a much weaker sfc low that drifts up the valley and keeps the precipitation our of N Lower. While the GFS lifts the 500 mb low out of the Southern Plains, and up into the mid-Mississippi Valley rain or a mix up into N Lower which would then change back over to all snow by 12z/Sat, as the 500 mb low moves over Lower Michigan. This means low chance pops as the National Blend averages out the pop from the two models.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 652 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

Light snow has been falling in much of northern lower MI for the overnight hours. Vsbys in the 1-3SM range have been common. The first round of heavier snow is now pushing into nw lower MI, with vsbys around 1/2SM at mbL and FKS, and 1/4SM at Big Rapids. These lower vsbys/heavier snow will gradually push across northern lower MI today, with only lighter snow lingering past late afternoon. Not impossible for mbL/TVC to see a touch of FZDZ mix in for a short while today. Lake effect snow showers will return behind departing low pressure for tonight, resulting in more variable conditions, but nw lower MI (including TVC) will get the worst of it.

Snow-liquid ratios will be in the lower teens this morning, the middle teens this afternoon, and the upper teens to around 20 tonight.

Se winds will be gusty this morning, with diminishing and variable winds this afternoon and early evening as the low moves overhead. W to n winds will be established tonight, and will be gusty again late.

MARINE. Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

Se gales will continue on our Lake Huron waters early today, before slackening somewhat. Low pressure will eventually cross central/northern Lakes MI and Huron this afternoon, with a period of quite variable winds. Eventually will settle back in with gusty northerly winds by late tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Sunday for MIZ020-021- 025>027-031>033. WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM EST Sunday for MIZ088-096. LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ018-020-024-030-035-036-042-088-095>098. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ016-022-028- 086-087-095-098-099. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ017-018-023- 024-029-030-097. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Sunday for MIZ034>036-041- 042. LH . GALE WARNING until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	17 mi	54 min	SE 5.1 G 21	24°F			1011.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	43 mi	58 min		27°F	33°F		1012.9 hPa (-6.9)	26°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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N6 G9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI	1 mi	63 min	ESE 14 G 20	0.75 mi	Snow	25°F	21°F	88%	1011.2 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI	20 mi	63 min	E 11 G 18	1.50 mi	Light Snow	25°F	24°F	100%	1012.2 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	22 mi	63 min	SE 9 G 15	1.00 mi	Snow	25°F	21°F	87%	1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)

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NW17 G24

NW20 G28

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NW11 G16

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W15 G22

NW11 G21

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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