Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Charlevoix, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 103 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A brief reprieve in the active weather expected today as surface high pressure and ridging folds over the Great Lakes region today.
Potent trough over the northern Rockies will continue its eastward progression, drumming up southerly return flow that will once again bring an increase in moisture to the region throughout the afternoon into the evening. Associated surface low will zip just north of the US-Canada border through the day and will force a cold front through the region tonight into Saturday. Associated low level jet dynamics within the system coupled with an active subtropical jet will drive an axis of instability into northern lower and eastern upper Michigan tonight, bringing another widespread round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. The difference with this system will be that it will send a surge of sharply cooler and drier air through the region very late tonight into Saturday, effectively dispatching rain and thunderstorms through the day... but with enough cold air to drum up some snow showers later tonight into Sunday. Surface high pressure set to restore meteorological order to the region into next week, bringing about what looks to be a much-needed period of drier weather amid temperatures moderating to seasonable levels for late April.

Details:

Fog development overnight will struggle to maintain its grip on the region as SSE flow effectively mixes through the boundary layer and scours out lingering low level moisture with the decaying of a surface inversion through the morning into the afternoon. Result will be brilliant sunshine across the region by afternoon, with a true spring and perhaps even early summer feel... highs away from Lake Huron in the upper 60s to upper 70s across northern lower (warmest in the Grand Traverse Bay region and south), with highs in the 60s across interior eastern upper, but 40s and 50s along the immediate Lake Huron Shore and up through the St. Mary's River Valley.

Aforementioned cold frontal boundary will barge into the region later tonight, and with an amplifying low level jet to drive instability, the return of a widespread round of showers and thunder is anticipated. This activity will have its origins from a vigorous convective response across Wisconsin and south through the upper Mississippi Valley, where a significant severe weather outbreak is anticipated. By the time this gets to northern Michigan, instability will be on a downward trend, and thus, the upstream convection is anticipated to respond thusly. Current trends indicate a decaying mesoscale convective system (MCS) will surge into the region from the southwest. The maintenance of this system will have to be done by the low level jet due to loss of diurnal instability, which, on paper the LLJ should be quite active. As such, current trends indicate that convection will be most well-organized over NW lower and perhaps even into eastern upper Michigan, diminishing in intensity as it moves through northern lower. With the downward trend in intensity expected, the best shot for any severe storms will be west of US 131 and will most likely be a wind threat more than anything. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is even less zealous about this, confining a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) generally across Manistee and Benzie. As such, the bigger story from this feature will be rainfall.

Trends from this convection support a rather transient line of storms moving into Michigan and weakening from west to east as it progresses. As such, the heaviest rainfall rates are expected to favor NW lower Michigan (again, west of US 131), including the Manistee and Boardman basins... along with potential for some of this activity to maintain itself into eastern upper Michigan. As such, general rainfall of 0.50 to 0.75" anticipated across these areas... with any thunderstorms potentially driving rainfall as high as 1.50", which will help nothing in regard to the ongoing flooding situation
Farther east
could see some 0.25 to 0.50" amounts butt up to the I-75 corridor in northern lower, with a general 0.10 to 0.25" of rain east to the Lake Huron shores. In the event thunderstorms maintain themselves fully into eastern upper Michigan, rainfall amounts could trend upward there as much of the rain for our friends north of the Big Bridge is expected to come from a mesolow / stratiform rain structure aided by mesoscale deformation.
Will have to watch that area accordingly. For the purpose of messaging, will be focusing additional flooding exacerbation to favor NW lower and eastern upper. In the case of the Cheboygan basin, the western half of the basin may see some of these higher rainfall amounts, which certainly won't help, but in the case of the Sturgeon and Black river arms of the basin, lesser rainfall is anticipated.

Heading into late tonight, the rain will be forced out by a sharp cold frontal boundary... with overnight temps in the upper 40s to near 60 dropping like a rock closer to daybreak with a shockingly brisk west to northwest wind. Anticipating most areas across northern Michigan to be in the 30s and lower 40s by the afternoon, though with peeks of sun building. The drop in temperatures will suffice in aiding the development of diurnally driven snow showers across the region... which, fortunately, from a hydrologic perspective, should amount to nothing much more than a nuisance as moisture will be rather limited, and thus, so will additional QPF.
Cold tonight with lows in the 20s. The brisk conditions carry into Sunday, with highs in the 30s to near 40, and additional snow shower potential. As stated by the previous forecaster, the brisk conditions will drive wind chills down into the teens and 20s...
something to consider for those working tirelessly in flooding recovery efforts
Looking ahead
high pressure builds back into the region... and this should have a touch more staying power. As such, it is starting to look like a much-needed dry spell is in order through much of next week, with temperatures rebounding to much more seasonable levels as highs rebound back into the 50s to near 60 in northern lower, and the lower 50s in eastern upper.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 704 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Think morning fog will start to burn off around 13-16z today, though not impossible it could take till 16-18z for cigs to increase from IFR to MVFR or better. Light/vrb winds to increase to 10-15kts this afternoon, gusting as high as 25kts from S/SE. Not impossible some showers/storms may try to kick off as early as 19-21z for mbL/TVC but think the better shot is after 0-3z with a likely line of storms to cross Lake MI; expect this will persist across the area overnight with a trend toward RA vs TSRA with eastward extent. Rain will linger most of the night. Some LLWS possible this evening prior to storms moving through, given 40-50kt low-level jet around 2kft; think a boost of stronger gusts may also take place along the front around 9-12z and beyond.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ029>036- 041-042.
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.