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FXUS61 KCAR 112145 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 445 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure build in from the west tonight and Tuesday morning then slides to the east Tuesday afternoon. A warm front lifts to the north Tuesday evening, followed by a cold font crossing the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. High pressure then builds in to the southwest from later Wednesday through Friday. A cold front pushes to the south Friday night, followed by high pressure building in on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
440pm update...
There is no Flood Watch remaining. It has been cancelled, but the web page continues to display. We are working the issue.
Smaller streams that did respond up towards Action stage are cresting and we are not expecting additional flooding.

Otherwise, colder temperatures are arriving and we have issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight icy patches on the roads this evening.

Also ended a Gale Warning on the coastal waters in favor of a Small Craft Advisory.

Previous discussion...
Low pressure will be departing into the Maritimes tonight as shortwave energy at 500mb slides through this evening. Cold air advection strengthens and NW winds will increase with gust 20-30mph tonight across the area. Temperatures are going to be crashing and with wet surfaces likely to last despite the winds we will likely see refreeze issues. Black ice will be a problem on all untreated surfaces with the ground still cold and air temperatures falling quickly. Expect some clearing across southern zones tonight with snow showers ending north and mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be falling back into the teens across the North Woods, low 20s from Eastern Aroostook to Central Highlands. Bangor region to the Downeast coast in the mid to upper 20s. Cold air advection aloft with northwest winds will shift W-SW in the afternoon. Air temperatures will climb into the low to mid 30s south and upper 20s to low 30s north under partly to mostly sunny skies.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A northern stream shortwave passes to the north Tuesday night.
This could bring some isolated to scatterd snow showers to mainly the North Woods. Lows Tuesday night should be around 10 degrees above normal.

A northern stream shortwave trough builds into the region Wednesday, with its associated surface cold front tracking just ahead of it. This could bring some isolated to scattered snow showers across the North. These could be enhanced by convergence on the SE side of the Laurentian Mountains in Quebec. Depending on exactly how steep low-mid level lapse rates end up being, cannot rule out some isolated snow squalls as well across the North. Highs on Wednesday should occur during the morning hours at most locations, and should be near to slightly above normal.

A full latitude trough pushes through and off the eastern seaboard Wednesday night. This will allow for a strong, but brief bush of some polar air into the region. There also could be some lingering evening snow showers or flurries across the North. Lows Wednesday night should be a few degrees below normal. Did undercut the NBM slightly, however, if confidence in the strength and timing of this cold shot increases, these may need to be lowered by up to another 5 degrees or so across the board. Gusty NW winds should bring sub zero wind chills across the North and single digit windchills elsewhere.

Deep layered ridging builds in on Thursday. It should continue to be seasonably cold and dry. Highs on Thursday should be a few degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Deep layered ridging builds in Thursday night, then exits to the east on Friday. It should be dry.

A northern stream shortwave passes on Friday night, the low levels should be sufficiently dry to preclude any precipitation, especially with the best dynamics passing to the north with this system.

Deep layered ridging then builds in Saturday and Saturday night, it should be dry.

The region should be under SW flow aloft Sunday-Monday. The models differ this far out on the timing of shortwaves embedded in the flow, and as a result on the exact timing for any precipitation early next week, other than at this time it appears more likely on the whole on Monday than on Sunday. Given the uncertainty, it is to early to speculate on what, if any, impact this system might have on the region. At this time though, the system currently favors rain over snow for the region.

Temperatures should be above normal Thursday night through Monday.

AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR cigs this evening with IFR at FVE due to the -SN. -SN will become VCSH at northern terms and precip ends after 00z. VFR cigs expected tonight especially after 06z. NW winds 10-20kt with gusts to 30kt possible. Tomorrow, expect VFR and NW winds shift W-SW 10-15kt in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night...VFR, with MVFR or lower possible late Tuesday night at far northern terminals in any snow showers. LLWS possible.

Wednesday...VFR south. MVFR or lower possible north with any snow showers. W-NW winds G15-25KT possible

Wednesday night-Saturday...VFR. NW-W winds G15-25KT possible Wednesday night and Thursday and again on Saturday.

MARINE
440pm update...Ended the Gale Warning on the coastal waters in favor of an SCA.

NEAR TERM: Gales warning for gusts this evening across the eastern waters to the Hague Line. Small Craft Advisory for gusts to 30kt from the W-NW. A few gusts to 35kt possible this evening in the SCA. Southerly long period swells are subsiding to between 9 and 12ft tonight with a period of 11-12sec. Tomorrow expect some gusts to 25kt but swells will remain above 5ft allowing for a continued SCA on the waters. Seas subside to between 5 and 8ft by afternoon with a period of 11 seconds.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions are likely on the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. Gales are possible on the coastal ocean waters Wednesday night, with SCA conditions probable on the intra-coastal waters. SCA conditions are then possible on the coastal ocean waters Thursday and Thursday night. All waters should see sub-SCA conditions Friday and Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.

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Quaco Bay
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Mon -- 04:09 AM AST     1.62 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:51 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:16 AM AST     8.20 meters High Tide
Mon -- 03:18 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:39 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:40 PM AST     1.12 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 10:47 PM AST     7.77 meters High Tide
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Quaco Bay, New Brunswick, Tide feet

Rothesay
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Mon -- 06:34 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:37 AM AST     0.94 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 07:53 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:06 PM AST     1.38 meters High Tide
Mon -- 03:20 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:40 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:21 PM AST     0.96 meters Low Tide
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Rothesay, New Brunswick, Tide feet

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