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FXUS61 KCAR 132326 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 726 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves east tonight. A storm system approaches from the west tonight and Tuesday, crosses the region Wednesday, then exits across the Maritimes Thursday. High pressure builds in Friday. A front approaches on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
7:26 PM Update: Update to aviation section for issuance of the 00z Tafs, please see below.

6:18 PM Update: Satellite pictures show diurnal cumulus clouds north of Bangor early this evening. Onshore flow and a seabreeze front has produced more stable air toward the coast with less cloud cover as a result. The diurnally driven clouds will dissipate this evening, but will be followed by increasing clouds ahead of an approaching warm front. Area radars show some returns moving out of Quebec and into the North Woods, but the low levels are very dry so unlikely to be more than virga or a few drops of rain this evening. Shower chances will increase after midnight, mainly from the Central Highlands north into the North Woods. No significant changes are planned at this time with only minor tweaks to account for the current and expected conditions this evening.

Previous discussion: Diurnal clouds dissipate early this evening only to be followed by increasing clouds later tonight in advance of an approaching short wave and warm front. Brief ridging aloft the first half of the night results in a dry evening. The increasing cloud cover tonight and southerly flow result in mild overnight lows, which will be generally in the mid to upper 40s. A few showers tracking through Quebec could begin to move into the North Maine Woods prior to midnight, but any showers tonight should be spotty at best, with any rainfall a few hundreths of an inch or so. Patchy fog is possible after midnight toward the coast and downeast Maine. Warm front continues to move northeast toward the region early Tuesday, lifting northeast through Tuesday afternoon. This keeps mainly cloudy skies across the region through Tuesday afternoon with light rain expected across northern areas, and the chance for showers for Bangor and Downeast areas. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be within a few degrees of 60, but cooler along the coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tuesday evening will feature CWA getting the squeeze play between H5 ridge axis along the eastern seaboard and troffing from upr low over nrn Quebec. Frontal boundary will be draped from Quebec down thru the northeast U.S. with warm front into wrn CWA Rain will be occurring along front close to the international border but forcing will become more diffuse with time. boundary boundary Overall expect chc to likely pops to the north of Bangor where boundary looks to set up.

Chances for showers continue Wednesday through Thursday, dependent on lingering boundaries and subtle s/wv moving through in the flow.
Temps wl be above normal Wednesday and Thursday in the m/u 60s, though cooler along the shore Wednesday in onshore flow. Patchy to areas of fog will also be possible overnight Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface low will be scooting off of the mid-Atlantic Thursday night with showers well south of our area. Question is lingering boundary that appears to be in the vicinity helping to fire off precip as approaching upr trof flings waves twd the area. Have dropped pops slightly Thursday night before increasing them again Friday afternoon as diurnal heating will combine with subtle waves moving thru in the flow to continue the chc for showers.

Chances for showers continue thru the weekend as longwave trof crosses the northeast. With the trof taking on a negative tilt it will take it/s sweet time moving through with showers continuing through the day on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR through late tonight at the Aroostook terminals with conditions decreasing to MVFR after 12Z Tuesday in lowering ceilings and developing rain.

At KBGR/KBHB, high confidence in VFR through 06Z Tuesday.
Moderate confidence that MVFR develops after 09Z in developing low clouds/patchy fog, with IFR possible 12-15Z. Moderate confidence that conditions improve to MVFR by early afternoon, and then to VFR for a time late in the day.

S wind 5 to 15 kt through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night-Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in rain and fog. SSE 5- 10kts Tue night/Wed becoming ENE 5-10kts late Wed night.

Thursday-Thursday night...Mainly VFR but ocnl MVFR in showers and fog. E 5-10kts.

Friday...Mainly VFR, possible MVFR over northern Aroostook in the afternoon in showers. SE 5-15kts.

Friday night-Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain and fog. SE 5-15kts with gusts 20-25kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.
Patchy fog late tonight through Tuesday morning may reduce visibility to 1 to 3 NM at times.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas mainly below SCA levels through Thursday afternoon when seas increase to near 5ft over the outer waters. Seas remain elevated through the day on Friday before diminishing. Visibilities will be reduced in fog at times through the end of the week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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