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FXUS63 KMPX 111134 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 534 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- No impactful weather is expected over the next 7 days, with temperatures returning to well above normal levels Thursday through next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Satellite imagery this morning looks an awful lot like it did 24 hours ago, with stratus covering almost all of MN and WI as it got trapped beneath an inversion, with light winds that were not able to mix it out. Overnight, we've seen the west edge of the stratus field slowly descend to the point where we're starting to see some dense fog form in southwest MN. As for when it may go away, as southwest winds pick up in strength, this should help to finally push the stratus northeast. In addition, the GOES cloud thickness imagery shows an expanding patch of decreasing thickness in the stratus between the Twin Cities and Mankato, so this decreasing thickness trend along with increased mixing from southwest winds lends some confidence that we will finally see the stratus get pushed to the northeast this afternoon, but we did further delay its demise in the grids. These southwest winds are developing ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the area this evening. Despite being in the warm sector today, we did lower highs a few degrees given the fog/stratus the meager sun angle will have to overcome before it can start heating the ground. The coldest air and resultant deepest dendritic growth zone behind this front will be up around Lake Superior, so any flurry/snow shower activity behind this front Monday night will remain northeast of our area. Behind this front, Tuesday will see highs largely remain in the 20s and after that, winter goes into hibernation.

From Wednesday through next weekend and beyond, upper ridging will dominate western into central North America. We'll have weak flow locally, with the northern stream remaining well to our north, which will keep us stuck in a persistent feed of mild airmasses of Pacific origin. We continue to have a dry forecast, but there is still a signal in the ensembles for some precip potential Friday/Friday night. However, there has been little run-to-run consistency with this precipitation potential over the last few days, with it showing up in one model run, only to disappear in the next. Given this lack of consistency, along with the weak flow present, didn't see a reason yet to deviate from our current dry forecast. At any rate, if we do see precip, we're likely talking about amounts under 0.05" and with a type of just plain rain. As for temperatures, they will be very mild. In fact, from Thursday through next weekend, highs most days should be in the 40s. NBM 90th percentile each day is 3 to 5 degrees warmer than what we have in the forecast, which is plausible for highs depending on what we do for things like timing of fronts and sky cover. This means seeing a few more 50s for highs, especially in southern MN is not out of the question as we work toward the end of the week into next weekend. And of course looking at the 8-14 day outlook from the CPC, these mild airmasses look to stick with us pretty much right up to Christmas. Historically, the Twin Cities sees a white Christmas (a snow depth of at least 1" with the 12 UTC observation) about 75% of the time. This year, that white Christmas probability is likely down more in the 10%-20% range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Stratus deck remains and it likely won't scatter out for MSP and surrounding areas until mid/late afternoon. Cigs have been IFR/MVFR all night, with a few LIFR cigs and vis in western MN as fog limits visibility. Winds will shift to the northwest and strengthen, with gusts to 20-25 kts after 00Z-03Z.

KMSP...Low-end MVFR stratus to continue through the early afternoon.
Cold frontal passage Monday night will bring NW winds to the terminal around 03Z, with gusts to 20 kts possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. NW 10-15G20 kts.
WED...VFR. SW 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ073-074- 082-091.
WI...None.

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