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FXUS63 KMPX 080539 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1139 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow along with gusty winds Saturday

- Cooler air returns this weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 455 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Record high temperatures materialized as forecast this afternoon with most of the area warming into the low to mid 50s, while downsloping flow off of the Buffalo Ridge allowed for temperatures to reach the mid to upper 60s across southwest Minnesota. As is common with record warm temperatures in the winter, an active pattern will develop over the next 48 hours with as a deepening low along the US/Canada border drives a number of boundaries through the region tomorrow into Saturday.
The first boundary will be a cold front/surface trough that moves through the area overnight into tomorrow morning.
Temperatures will be "cooler" compared to today, but still well- above normal as afternoon approach 50 degrees. Record highs are still possible, including at MSP where the record high for December 8 is 50 degrees set in 1939 & 1990. Westerly winds will develop behind the front & increase through the day, with gusts around 30 mph during the afternoon across western Minnesota.

The second boundary moves into the area late Friday night and is a much stronger cold front with temperatures dropping below freezing Saturday morning. Not much moisture is present ahead of the front but strong vorticity advection along the front will create a swath of light snow immediately behind the frontal passage. The main forecast change was to increase PoPs on Saturday into the 60-80% range, as well as to increase winds as northwest winds gusting to around 40 mph develop behind the frontal passage. Snow amounts will be light, generally around an inch or less, but the falling snow snow in addition to the gusty winds will likely lead to slick roads and low visibility causing some minor travel hazards. The snow is only forecast to last for 3-6 hours with the frontal passage and will be out of the area by the evening as the front exits the area into eastern Wisconsin.

Quiet weather is then expected through most of next week as weak northwest flow aloft transition to even weaker split flow over much of the CONUS. Dry weather looks likely until at least next weekend, when guidance depicts a potential system developing somewhere over the central US. Temperatures will remain generally seasonal through early next week, but a return to well- above temperatures looks likely by Thursday, with this pattern potentially persisting into late December.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Not much changed from the previous TAFs, with MVFR cigs expected to sink down into central MN (AXN & STC) and northwest WI (RNH), but largely remain north of the rest of the terminals. Winds will switch over to the WSW for Friday, with gusts up around 25 kts. It will remain dry, with any precip holding off until late Friday night into Saturday.

KMSP...Can't rule out some MVFR cigs (as low as 2500 feet)
between 15z and 20z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR, Afternoon MVFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-15G30 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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