Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Martin Lake, MN
May 19, 2024 2:06 PM CDT (19:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 3:54 PM Moonset 2:46 AM |
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 191719 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1219 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning this evening into Monday morning and Tuesday through Tuesday night.
- Increasing likelihood of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday PM across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
SPC day 3 SWO brings an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) into SE MN.
- Heavy rainfall is likely and totals may exceed 3 inches through mid-week. This will likely lead to rises on rivers and their tributaries into the holiday weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... Today will be a tale of two halves.
Sunday will start off pleasant with mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the 70s across the region. The second half will focus on this evening into tonight as the first of multiple rounds of rain & thunderstorms will impact the Upper Mississippi Valley. A few showers or storms will try to fire this afternoon across western Minnesota but will have to battle plenty of dry air currently in place. By this evening a strengthening LLJ will ramp up moisture advection into the area. This will provide a potent setup similar to what occurred Friday night into Saturday morning.
Better forcing and instability will lead to more widespread nature of convection that'll lead to half inch to an inch of QPF by Monday morning. We'll see an active wave train with several shortwaves eject out of the Rockies into the Upper Midwest. We'll have a brief period to dry out Monday afternoon and temperatures will be seasonable in the 70s.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Our attention turns to the next event that should be the most impressive wave of the week. It's not often we'll see Summer moisture with Winter synoptic forcing, but Tuesday's system will paint a picture of what it would look like.
The sfc low will move from Nebraska into S Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. This places the most favorable area of lift across the MPX CWA with the focus over western and central Minnesota. This is where the cold conveyor belt of northeast flow will wrap into the SFC low and the TROWAL to produce a prolonged steady moderate rain event across this region. The TROWAL will provide plenty of moisture with PWAT values in the 95th percentile per the ECMWF EFI. MSLP is also in uncharted territory per the EFI, roughly once per decade, for the MSLP to drop this low.+
Western and Central Minnesota is where we see the highest QPF, with amounts in ensembles of 2 to 4 inches possible, as mentioned in the previous discussion. This forecast should not change a whole lot as this is driven in the cold sector of the system, not the warm convective portion. However, the convective side of this system looks increasingly likely to impact southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon & evening. The SPC day 3 SWO highlights a rather large enhanced (3/5) risk across portions of the plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. It places our I-90 counties in Enhanced. The Slight risk covers much of the eastern half of our forecast area or the Twin Cities Metro and points eastward. This system will have plenty of wind shear with impressive forcing. Less certain on the instability front. The ECMWF has been consistent in tracking the low pressure from SW MN to the Twin Cities. It brings 1000 to 1500 j/kg of instability into the region Tuesday Afternoon that should be plenty to trigger severe weather, but other model guidance with further east low tracks would bring much less instability into the area, so for now there is still some uncertainty and lower confidence. That's why the greatest risk area is to the south and east where there is higher confidence of instability/warmer air mass. This severe chance is also seen in machine learning outlooks run by CSU. The CSU day 3 suggests that Tuesday's severe threat could bring the enhanced area further west, but again model spread and lower confidence make the current SPC outlook a great starting point due to that uncertainty. So Tuesday will be the day to keep an eye on for multiple reasons, slight risk of excessive rainfall & enhanced/slight risk of severe thunderstorms.
Rain chances persist into Wednesday as this system moves into the northern Great Lakes. Wednesday will also be the coolest day of the week with high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s with cloud cover and northwest flow to blame.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Forecast confidence begins to decrease beyond mid-week. There are more signals for additional QPF events among the grand ensemble members, but not as clear of a signal and much more spread. This active period seems to continue through the holiday weekend, but confidence on timing of when rain could fall remains low. Temperatures should be comfortable, in the 60s and 70s, dependent on precipitation or not. The heavy rainfall from the Sunday night and Tuesday system will likely lead to rises on the Upper Minnesota river basin and the Crow River basin. The river rises should begin as we head into Memorial day weekend.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Radar returns across central MN are still not making it to the surface, however returns near the MN/IA border are within the more moist environment. Isolated to scattered showers will become more common into this evening before LLJ arrives, causing more strong forced SHRA/TSRA likely from midnight through the early morning as the convection moves northeast. Have kept pre- existing TEMPO TSRA group but have delayed onset time by about 1 hour. Cigs will remain VFR until the heavier precip arrives, with expected drop to IFR/LIFR left in its wake. Cigs should slowly improve from west to east during Monday morning. Winds will be southeasterly around 10 knots (slightly weaker in WI)
into early Monday morning before slowing to at or below 5 knots and becoming west-northwesterly.
KMSP...Could see some light showers this afternoon but more sustained showers will arrive late this evening. 06-10Z continues to look like the best timing of organized SHRA/TSRA.
Post rain stratocumulus will cause cigs to fall to IFR before improvement to MVFR occurs by late Monday morning, and then VFR during Monday afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR or IFR/TSRA likely. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
WED...MVFR bcmg VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind W 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 10 kts.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A heavy rain event remains on track for Tuesday, with a large footprint of 1 to 3 inches of rain, with some locations pushing 4 inches. The greatest rainfall totals are expected across southwest, west central, and central MN. Exactly where and how much rainfall we see will determine where a threat for river flooding will exist going into Memorial Day weekend, but given current rainfall forecasts, flooding during the holiday weekend may be possible in the Cottonwood, Redwood, Minnesota (upstream of Mankato), and Crow river basins.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1219 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning this evening into Monday morning and Tuesday through Tuesday night.
- Increasing likelihood of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday PM across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
SPC day 3 SWO brings an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) into SE MN.
- Heavy rainfall is likely and totals may exceed 3 inches through mid-week. This will likely lead to rises on rivers and their tributaries into the holiday weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... Today will be a tale of two halves.
Sunday will start off pleasant with mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the 70s across the region. The second half will focus on this evening into tonight as the first of multiple rounds of rain & thunderstorms will impact the Upper Mississippi Valley. A few showers or storms will try to fire this afternoon across western Minnesota but will have to battle plenty of dry air currently in place. By this evening a strengthening LLJ will ramp up moisture advection into the area. This will provide a potent setup similar to what occurred Friday night into Saturday morning.
Better forcing and instability will lead to more widespread nature of convection that'll lead to half inch to an inch of QPF by Monday morning. We'll see an active wave train with several shortwaves eject out of the Rockies into the Upper Midwest. We'll have a brief period to dry out Monday afternoon and temperatures will be seasonable in the 70s.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Our attention turns to the next event that should be the most impressive wave of the week. It's not often we'll see Summer moisture with Winter synoptic forcing, but Tuesday's system will paint a picture of what it would look like.
The sfc low will move from Nebraska into S Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. This places the most favorable area of lift across the MPX CWA with the focus over western and central Minnesota. This is where the cold conveyor belt of northeast flow will wrap into the SFC low and the TROWAL to produce a prolonged steady moderate rain event across this region. The TROWAL will provide plenty of moisture with PWAT values in the 95th percentile per the ECMWF EFI. MSLP is also in uncharted territory per the EFI, roughly once per decade, for the MSLP to drop this low.+
Western and Central Minnesota is where we see the highest QPF, with amounts in ensembles of 2 to 4 inches possible, as mentioned in the previous discussion. This forecast should not change a whole lot as this is driven in the cold sector of the system, not the warm convective portion. However, the convective side of this system looks increasingly likely to impact southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon & evening. The SPC day 3 SWO highlights a rather large enhanced (3/5) risk across portions of the plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. It places our I-90 counties in Enhanced. The Slight risk covers much of the eastern half of our forecast area or the Twin Cities Metro and points eastward. This system will have plenty of wind shear with impressive forcing. Less certain on the instability front. The ECMWF has been consistent in tracking the low pressure from SW MN to the Twin Cities. It brings 1000 to 1500 j/kg of instability into the region Tuesday Afternoon that should be plenty to trigger severe weather, but other model guidance with further east low tracks would bring much less instability into the area, so for now there is still some uncertainty and lower confidence. That's why the greatest risk area is to the south and east where there is higher confidence of instability/warmer air mass. This severe chance is also seen in machine learning outlooks run by CSU. The CSU day 3 suggests that Tuesday's severe threat could bring the enhanced area further west, but again model spread and lower confidence make the current SPC outlook a great starting point due to that uncertainty. So Tuesday will be the day to keep an eye on for multiple reasons, slight risk of excessive rainfall & enhanced/slight risk of severe thunderstorms.
Rain chances persist into Wednesday as this system moves into the northern Great Lakes. Wednesday will also be the coolest day of the week with high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s with cloud cover and northwest flow to blame.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Forecast confidence begins to decrease beyond mid-week. There are more signals for additional QPF events among the grand ensemble members, but not as clear of a signal and much more spread. This active period seems to continue through the holiday weekend, but confidence on timing of when rain could fall remains low. Temperatures should be comfortable, in the 60s and 70s, dependent on precipitation or not. The heavy rainfall from the Sunday night and Tuesday system will likely lead to rises on the Upper Minnesota river basin and the Crow River basin. The river rises should begin as we head into Memorial day weekend.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Radar returns across central MN are still not making it to the surface, however returns near the MN/IA border are within the more moist environment. Isolated to scattered showers will become more common into this evening before LLJ arrives, causing more strong forced SHRA/TSRA likely from midnight through the early morning as the convection moves northeast. Have kept pre- existing TEMPO TSRA group but have delayed onset time by about 1 hour. Cigs will remain VFR until the heavier precip arrives, with expected drop to IFR/LIFR left in its wake. Cigs should slowly improve from west to east during Monday morning. Winds will be southeasterly around 10 knots (slightly weaker in WI)
into early Monday morning before slowing to at or below 5 knots and becoming west-northwesterly.
KMSP...Could see some light showers this afternoon but more sustained showers will arrive late this evening. 06-10Z continues to look like the best timing of organized SHRA/TSRA.
Post rain stratocumulus will cause cigs to fall to IFR before improvement to MVFR occurs by late Monday morning, and then VFR during Monday afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR or IFR/TSRA likely. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
WED...MVFR bcmg VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind W 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 10 kts.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A heavy rain event remains on track for Tuesday, with a large footprint of 1 to 3 inches of rain, with some locations pushing 4 inches. The greatest rainfall totals are expected across southwest, west central, and central MN. Exactly where and how much rainfall we see will determine where a threat for river flooding will exist going into Memorial Day weekend, but given current rainfall forecasts, flooding during the holiday weekend may be possible in the Cottonwood, Redwood, Minnesota (upstream of Mankato), and Crow river basins.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KANE ANOKA COUNTYBLAINE (JANES FIELD),MN | 15 sm | 15 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 39°F | 33% | 30.01 | |
| KCBG CAMBRIDGE MUNI,MN | 19 sm | 11 min | S 09G16 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 54°F | 53% | 30.00 | |
| KOEO L O SIMENSTAD MUNI,WI | 20 sm | 11 min | SSE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 39°F | 33% | 30.04 | |
| KMIC CRYSTAL,MN | 24 sm | 13 min | SSE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 43°F | 38% | 30.00 |
Minneapolis, MN,
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