Wednesday, August21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Waddington, NY

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:02PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:16 AM EDT (12:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:01PMMoonset 11:01AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201908211515;;973825 Fzus61 Kbuf 210838 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 438 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019 Slz022-024-211515- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 438 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds early this afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers from late evening on.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny.
Thursday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..North winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NY
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location: 45.36, -75.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 211136
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
736 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms return to the north
country today. A few stronger afternoon thunderstorms are
expected with gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. A cold front will follow late tonight into Thursday
morning, bringing a few additional light rain showers. Canadian
high pressure building into the region will ultimately bring
noticeably cooler and drier conditions, with high temperatures
generally in the 70s Friday through next Monday.

Near term through Thursday
As of 730 am edt Wednesday... Unsettled weather returns to the
north country today with a few strong to severe thunderstorms
and a localized threat of flash flooding. Have adjusted pops to
account for ongoing radar trends, with separate convective
clusters across rutland windsor counties and approaching st.

Lawrence county, producing brief moderate to heavy rainfall and
cg lightning. Activity is being covered with special weather
statements at this time. Overall threat remains on track with
previous discussion.

Previous discussion... Early this morning, we continue to
monitor the evolution of convectively induced mid-level
vorticity MAX across nern ohio and lake erie. Meanwhile, a
developing sfc- 850mb warm front and strong surge of higher
dewpoints higher pw values is beginning to develop newd in
advance of the vort across s-central ny into the catskills.

850mb flow increasing to 25-30kt will aid in moisture advection
into nern ny and vt late this morning through the afternoon
hours. Overall, large-scale forcing will become quite favorable
for precipitation in the form of numerous showers across our
region late this morning through this afternoon. However, the
ongoing early am arrival of mid- level clouds and potential
shower activity suggest that the surface- based instability may
remain limited, and may mitigate a more significant severe
thunderstorm threat. At this point, it appears best
juxtaposition of low-level moisture and mid-level forcing will
line up across the adirondacks ewd across central s-central vt.

With instability limited, the greater threat may be localized
flash flooding, especially if training thunderstorms
develop... Which appears increasingly possible given forcing
along elongated east-west thermal moisture boundary across our
southern zones. Also have noted warm cloud depths near 12kft, so
rainfall should be efficient with expected convection. Have
indicated average rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 1", but localized
totals in excess of 2" are indicated in 06z run of the nam3km.

Could see a strong cell or two further north, but have lowered
daytime highs by several degrees (mainly 75-80f highs), and pbl
won't be quite as favorable for severe activity with marginal
surface heating. Localized flash flood and severe weather trends
will need to be monitored through the afternoon hours.

Best synoptic support passes east of the region by 22z or so,
and a trailing cold front will bring just a few additional rain
showers for the overnight hours into early Thursday morning.

Low temperatures tonight generally in the low-mid 60s. Pbl flow
will shift into the west for Thursday, with 2-m dewpoints
falling back into the 50s by early to mid afternoon hours.

Included just 20-30 pops for rain showers, mainly across the
adirondacks and green mtns, but should see partly sunny
conditions on balance across most of the forecast area.

Afternoon highs on Thursday will range from the low to mid 70s
for the adirondacks and st. Lawrence valley, to 75-81f from the
champlain valley ewd across central ERN vt.

Short term Thursday night through Friday
As of 253 am edt Wednesday... Upper level trough and associated cold
pool will move through the area between 15-18z on Friday bringing an
increase in cloudiness and a slight chance for showers across the
far northern parts of the nek. Very minimal elevated CAPE shown in
model soundings (barely even reaching 0 c in some locations) so
not expecting any thunder with these showers despite dry
adiabatic low level lapse rates. Winds remains generally out of
the west ahead of this shortwave passage so have kept
temperatures very near superblend MOS guidance with highs in the
mid upper 60s to low 70s. Winds turn out of the NW behind this
front which will bring below normal overnight lows in the low
40s to mid 50s across the area.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 253 am edt Wednesday... No major changes to overall synoptic
pattern and therefore forecast for the extended with high pressure
in control through early next week. Highly amplified pattern builds
in towards the end of the weekend with large scale ridging and
subsidence across new england. Slightly below to near normal
temperatures expected Saturday Sunday under mostly sunny skies. With
heights rising behind departing shortwave have offered a dry
forecast despite some guidance showing precipitation. After this,
model uncertainty increases after Sunday with differences in the
long wave pattern and quickness of large scale trough for midweek
next week.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 12z Thursday... Anticipate periods of showers and
embedded thunderstorms at the TAF sites this morning into the
afternoon. Onset timing at pbg btv should be around
15-16z... Earlier at slk mss with ongoing storms east of lake
ontario at 1130z. Combination of developing warm front across
central ny and approaching shortwave trough from the ERN great
lakes will bring increasingly numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms to the north country TAF locations late this
morning into the afternoon. During the 15-22z period, should see
generally overcast conditions with a mix ofVFR to MVFR
ceilings. Brief ifr intervals are also possible in any heavier
convective showers or thunderstorms. A few stronger cells will
contain gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. Winds will increase
from the s-sw at 10-12kt, with gusts to 20 kt possible at times
at btv. Locally stronger winds are possible today with
anticipated thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, should generally
see a return toVFR conditions tonight, though fog development
is possible at slk mpv 05-12z Thursday.


Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra, patchy br.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos
short term... Larocca
long term... Larocca
aviation... Banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 49 mi53 min 69°F 71°F1010.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY59 mi84 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F60°F87%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSS

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW5S3SW4S46S8S11SW10SW8----SW8S5Calm----SW3------Calm--CalmCalm
1 day agoSW11SW12SW16
2 days agoCalm----SW43W5SW73CalmCalmNE6E4CalmE3SE4S6CalmSW3--SW3----S4SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.