Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waddington, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 4:21PM Monday December 9, 2019 2:01 PM EST (19:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:05PMMoonset 4:29AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201912092215;;092772 Fzus61 Kbuf 091434 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 934 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019 Slz022-024-092215- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 934 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely early. Occasional rain late.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers in the morning.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NY
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location: 45.36, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 091755 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1255 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Light wintry mixed precipitation is ongoing this morning, and we may have some light icing or snow accumulation. This mornings commute may be impacted, but temperatures warm during the day changing precipitation over to rain showers. Winds will continue to be gusty out of the South until surface cold front finally pushes through later in the day Tuesday. Drier weather returns Tuesday night through Friday night with colder than normal temperatures anticipated. Saturday will bring our next chance for rain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1244 PM EST Monday . Radar shows areas of light rain lifting across portions of our cwa this aftn, while sfc temps continue to be below 0C at VSF. Have updated to lower sfc temps again across eastern VT, as shallow low level inversion continues with pockets of freezing rain. Temps will warm above freezing in all areas over the next 1 to 2 hours, with periods of occasional showers continuing. Strong downslope winds will limit qpf/pops in cpv, which is covered well in fcst. Temps mainly in the upper 30s east to upper 40s to near 50f for parts of the cpv/slv, where mss is already 47f.

Previous discussion follows. Strong warm air advection over our area and gusty southerly winds as well as strong low level jet have helped to push temperatures into the mid 30s to around 40, except for areas East of the Greens where temperatures remain in the upper 20s. So far this morning most observations have been rain or snow, but isolated pockets of sleet are possible. Areas east of the Greens where the temperatures have remained colder will still have some freezing rain resulting in light icing. Untreated surfaces elsewhere may take some time for the pavement temperatures to come up and a light glaze will be possible as well. Precipitation this morning will mainly impact areas of VT north of I-89. We'll have a brief break in precipitation, then more rain moves into the area from the South around 17z across Southern VT, spreading northward all the way to the international border by about 21z. With low level jet over the area, QPF will be terrain driven with highest amounts in the southeast upslope regions of the eastern Dacks and central/southern Greens. Downslope flow will limit QPF in the Champlain Valley and parts of the Northern New York north of the Dacks. Maximum temperatures today will reach the 40s areawide, then not fall too drastically overnight with strong winds, clouds and showers continuing, mainly lower 40s. Precipitation will become more showery following 00z tonight, and eventually ending from west to east towards early Tuesday morning. Areas of fog are possible through the period with rainfall on top of snowpack, especially deeper/protected valleys. Still not expecting any significant hydrology issues, though with heaviest rain in southern Vermont and some snowmelt as well, Otter Creek at Center Rutland is forecast to rise above flood stage. With low pressure system lifting through Great Lakes and then well to our Northwest, surface cold front will finally push through our area on Tuesday. Winds will veer from Southerly to Westerly, then eventually Northwest behind the departing front. Any remaining rain showers will change over to snow showers on Tuesday, with early morning high temperatures established in the 40s then dropping through the day. Temperatures will drop a good 15 degrees or so during the day Tuesday. As midlevel dry air settles in behind the front Tuesday afternoon, chances of precipitation will be decreasing.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 AM EST Monday . Cold air advection will continue Tuesday night behind the aforementioned cold frontal passage. Precipitation will come to an end across much of the region as best moisture and forcing move to our south and east, with northern areas seeing some breaks in the clouds as well. However, far southern/southeastern areas may see snow showers continuing as a weak wave of low pressure traverses along the front positioned off the New England coast. This southern focus to the precip will continue Wednesday morning, but snow chances will increase, particularly over northern NY, Wednesday afternoon as winds turn to the southwest ahead of a secondary cold front moving south out of Ontario. This will lead to lake effect snow over the favored areas east of Lake Ontario, with around an inch of accumulation possible through the daylight hours. Temperatures Tuesday night are a bit tricky as they will depend on extent of cloud cover and whether locations can decouple, but regardless, it'll be turning colder. Lows look to be in the 10 to 20 range, with southern valley locations remaining in the lower 20s. Wednesday's temperatures will rebound a bit owing to the south- southwest winds; highs will be in the mid 20s to around 30.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 345 AM EST Monday . A secondary cold front will move across the region early Wednesday night, turning winds to the west/northwest and shunting any lingering lake effect snow south. High pressure will settle over New England Thursday, making for a dry but cold day with highs only in the teens and 20s. Thursday night will be cold as well, though radiational cooling potential might not be fully realized as the ridge axis shifts east, placing us under southwest flow and increasing cloud cover by early Friday. This continues through Friday, which will be dry but quite a bit warmer than Thursday. The weekend continues to look wet, though the exact details remain in question. The latest GFS is stronger with an upper trough swinging across the Upper Midwest and through the Great Lakes, developing surface low pressure over the Ohio River Valley and pushing it northeastward through the St Lawrence River Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with the upper shortwave and slower and further south with the surface low, taking it over Long Island Saturday evening and into coastal Maine on Sunday. Either way, would expect precipitation to move in Friday night or Saturday. Though it may start out as a bit of snow or perhaps a wintry mix, precipitation would change over to all rain Saturday and continue into the evening, then perhaps wind down overnight before showery conditions resume on Sunday as the main upper trough moves through. Have stayed close to a model blend for this time frame given the discrepancies between model solutions. Trends will need to be monitored through this week as the event draws nearer.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Through 18Z Tuesday . Crnt obs at our taf sites show mvfr at btv/mpv with vfr elsewhere. Expecting occasional rain showers to impact sites this aftn/evening with cigs trending toward ifr at mpv and mvfr at rut/mss/slk. Strong downslope component in the low level wind fields will keep pbg mainly vfr thru 00z. The 925mb to 850mb winds are expected to increase again aft 21z this aftn, resulting in additional areas of wind shear and turbulence, especially rut/mpv/pbg and btv, where axis of winds are the strongest. Intervals of ifr/lifr vis is likely in areas of patchy fog this evening into the overnight hours, especially as warm air moves over relatively cold snow pack, but areal coverage is uncertain given the strong wind fields. Cold front with wind shift to the west occurs btwn 14z-18z on Tues, with increasing cigs/vis behind fropa.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

MARINE. A period of very strong winds will impact Lake Champlain through the day. South winds of 25 to 35 knots and frequent gusts to 40 knots will occur, creating very difficult boating conditions, especially on the north end of the lake where waves of 5 to 7 feet will occur because of the strong winds. Winds will eventually taper off a bit on Monday, but remain in the 20 to 30 knot range and waves of 4 to 6 feet.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Neiles NEAR TERM . Neiles/Taber SHORT TERM . Hastings LONG TERM . Hastings AVIATION . Taber MARINE . Evenson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 49 mi50 min 45°F 1006.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY59 mi69 minSE 410.00 miOvercast48°F35°F61%1008.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSS

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1 day agoW7SW6SW5S3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS9S3S5S5
2 days agoN6CalmNW8W6W5W5SW4SW4SW4SW3CalmCalmS3CalmSW3CalmSW3CalmSW4SW4SW5SW6SW10W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.