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SLZ024 Expires:202404281515;;512669 Fzus61 Kbuf 280809 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 409 am edt Sun apr 28 2024
slz022-024-281515- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 409 am edt Sun apr 28 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and early. A chance of showers this afternoon. Tonight - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely early, then a chance of showers late in the evening. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely. Wednesday - North winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers Thursday night.

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FXUS61 KBTV 281711 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 111 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Expect scattered to numerous rain showers with embedded thunder today. A cold front brings cooler temperatures and partial sunshine on Monday before the next chance for widespread rainfall arrives Tuesday. The rest of the work week features mainly dry weather and a warming trend before unsettled weather possibly returns next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1257 PM EDT Sunday...The early aftn update was to increase pops acrs northern NY into the northern CPV/VT for the next couple of hours associated with developing area of showers with embedded lightning. This should continue into northern/central VT over the next 1 to 2 hours, while additional showers/storms redevelop ahead of an approaching cold frnt later this aftn/evening. Given the lack of instability, no severe storms are anticipated, but a few heavier convective elements could produce localized wind gusts to 40 mph and small hail. Temps are highly influenced by clouds with some areas in the SLV warming into the lower 70s, while other locations are holding in the mid/upper 50s acrs central/eastern VT. Have only adjusted hrly temps to better match obs, otherwise kept the highs the same.

Previous discussion below: While we are currently in a lull in rainfall, the next feature of interest associated with a cold front is showing up on radar.
A line of thunderstorms is seen near Ottawa, Ontario. RAP mesoanalysis shows an axis of rather steep 2-6km AGL lapse rates of up to 7.5C/km. So thinking that the thunderstorms should hold themselves together and reach portions of northern NY and northern VT during the pre-dawn into early morning hours.
Locally, there are also some returns along the western slopes of the Greens due to some localized convergence. So blended in some hi-res guidance to better reflect the PoPs in the next 6 hours. There is nothing strong or severe, but don't be surprised to hear some rumbles of thunder and see brief locally heavy downpours first thing this morning.

This morning, a 1004 mb surface low pressure tracks northeast from the southern tip of Hudson Bay to Nunavut this morning. As it does so, it will be weakening but has just enough dynamics to drag a weak cold front across the northern Adirondacks and northern Vermont.
Accordingly, these areas have the best chance for most widespread coverage of convective showers and higher rainfall amounts by later this afternoon. And you might feel it is quite a bit muggier compared to 24 hours ago. And it is about to get even more so today with dew points rising into the 50s and even around 60, especially across the St Lawrence Valley and west of the Adirondacks in northern NY. As for Vermont, we start out Sunday with dew points in the 40s but 50s dew points will also overspread the state by mid day into the afternoon hours. This would result in a few hundred joules of CAPE, so have maintained a slight chance of thunder across much of our CWA this afternoon. With a bit of sunshine, temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to low 70s with even a few 73-75 readings not out of the question. That being said, areas across northern Vermont that has the most widespread rain coverage could see slightly cooler daytime temperature readings. However, we are also in late April so the high sun angle will allow temperatures to warm rather efficiently. As for outdoor activities today, while there would likely be rain drops to dodge, it would not be exactly a washout either. If anything, the rainfall would be beneficial in this pre green-up environment and help keep the fire danger at bay.
For warm weather and summer lovers, the uptick in humidity and possible rumbles of thunder would serve as a reminder that summer is not too far away.

Tonight, sub-freezing 925mb isotherms nose into the northern portions of our CWA Showers become much more isolated in nature with temperatures falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s, except low to mid 50s across far southern Vermont. Monday looks to feature partly sunny conditions, with best chance for mostly sunny skies across Vermont. With a 1032 mb surface high across northern Quebec, it will help lock in a cool northerly flow with temperatures only rising into the mid 50s to near 60, except mid to upper 60s across the far southern zones of our CWA For comparison, the typical high temperatures for North Country in late April are in the upper 50s to mid 60s, so a tad below normal for most to start the new work week.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...A ridge remains overhead Monday night into Tuesday. Warm advection overnight will keep temperatures above seasonal norms in the 40s to even lower 50s in St. Lawrence County.
A theta e ridge axis crests overhead, and moisture will begin to spill back into the region. A weak surface low will attempt to develop during the day on Tuesday and produce widespread precipitation over the North Country. Behind it will be some cooler air, but there's some question as to how far south cold air sags and stuck to a blended approach with 50s north and 60s south.
Eventually, another surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic and precipitation from it will lift north later in the afternoon and evening hours.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 334 AM EDT Sunday...After the ridge briefly breaks down, a new and stronger ridge will take its place. We'll observe precipitation stay mainly north for a few days with warm temperatures pushing the 70s by Thursday and Friday. However, can't rule out some precipitation near the international border. Eventually, the center of the upper high will shift towards Bermuda and a surface reflection will develop. As with such a summer-type pattern, we'll likely have scattered showers and thunderstorms towards the weekend followed by an incoming upper low to the west by next Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 18Z Monday...Radar is showing a line of showers and embedded thunder quickly moving over northern NY into VT. This activity looks to impact SLK/BTV/PBG and EFK with brief heavy down pour, localized wind gust to 25 knots, and a few rumbles of thunder over the next 1 to 2 hours. Brief MVFR is possible in the heavier showers. Additional showers are likely this aftn/evening, before cold front clears our taf sites by 02z, along with winds shifting from south to north/northwest.
Tonight, soundings indicate developing subsidence inversion around 04z, which could result in areas of stratus and mvfr to localized ifr cigs btwn 06z-12z. Greatest probability would be at MPV/SLK and EFK, but given another two taf packages away, have not mention in 18z tafs attm. Otherwise, feel a general trend toward mvfr cigs are likely overnight at most sites with improving conditions by mid morning Monday. Also, look for developing northeast winds at SLK/MSS by early Monday morning at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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