Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay View, MI

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 221500 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1000 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 954 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

Northwest flow lake effect will continue through today as shot of modified Arctic air remains overhead. Excellent over-water thermal gradient and good lift through a near-surface dendritic growth layer helping compensate some for both limited inversion heights and nearly non-existent synoptic moisture contribution. Diurnal disruption will probably help break up better banding this afternoon. Still, given persistence of snow showers and transient pockets of over inch per hour snowfall rates, do expect at least a few more inches in the current advisory areas. Just a few much lighter snow showers and flurries outside the favored snow belt locations. Definitely chilly today, with highs in the teens to lower 20s, and wind chill values in the single digits . both above and below zero.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

Went ahead and extended the winter weather advisory for Emmet and Cheboygan counties into early this evening. Signals in hi-res guidance suggesting some decent snows and areas of blowing and drifting remain possible over this time.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

Impactful weather: Accumulating lake effect snow.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A blast of cold air has overtaken nrn Michigan, behind departing low pressure now in Quebec. All of the synoptic scale forcing and moisture has exited east with the parent shortwave activity, leaving somewhat still disrupted pure lake effect snow bands. Winds were also quite gusty, as a tight pressure gradient has moved in overhead. This has continued to lead to some blowing/drifting snow. Sure feels like winter now. There were some other wiggles or perturbations in the WNW flow aloft, but there was only very little/weak -divQ seen upstream.

The cold air remains solidly in place today and tonight, with lake effect snow persisting in the typical snowbelts, via gusty/cold NW winds. Despite it really feeling like winter out there, inversion heights barely sneak above 4kft while cyclonic convergence keeps a nice Lake Superior tap going today. Am just not seeing this as an impressive snow maker, with most of eastern upper, NW/far nrn lower Michigan seeing another 1-3 inches, with higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches for parts of Chippewa county, as well as the big "5" of NW lower (typical snowbelts). Harsher conditions for LES develop through tonight, with incoming subtle mid level height rises and lowering inversions to 3-3.5kft. We will lose the cyclonic convergence and snow shower coverage will decrease, but it's gonna keep snowing. Only a few additional tenths of snow in the snowbelts overnight.

Will keep all winter headlines intact attm. Will be watching latest radar trends to see what to do with Emmet and Cheboygan counties (advisory ends at 8am).

Highs today will generally be in upper teens to lower 20s. Lows tonight will mostly be in the single digits above zero to teens.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

. Lingering Lake Effect then Light Snow Likely .

High impact weather: Slick spots on some roadways Sunday?

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops through the period.

It's cold enough for lake effect to continue Saturday but surface high pressure passing by to the south is expected to back winds from westerly to southwesterly through the day. Mean winds continue to back Saturday night to southerly. So expect some light lake effect bands to be shifting around with time with some minor light accumulations possible.

An Alberta Clipper passing by to our north with a ribbon of moisture extending southward across the region is expected to bring a period of light snow to the region Sunday (mainly in the morning). Accumulations should be generally in the inch or less range. However, there could be some southerly flow lake enhancement in western Mackinac county which could boost local accumulations to two or three.

Highs Saturday remaining chilly and range from the upper teens to around 20 north to the low and mid 20s south. Highs Sunday generally in the mid and upper 20s. Temperatures Saturday night will be tricky as skies try to briefly clear out in the evening while winds are fairly light. Could see a few spots plummet with the fresh snow cover around. Forecast lows will be in the upper single digits and teens but wouldn't be shocked if a few spots even briefly dipped below zero before slowly rising late as clouds increase.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

. Seasonable Temperatures with Possible Flurries .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Extended models are coming into better agreement that low pressure passes by well to south of northern Michigan Monday into Monday night yielding only low chance pops across far southern zones. It looks cold enough for some light easterly flow lake effect flurries off of Lake Huron during that time as moisture doesn't look very impressive. Strong high pressure off to the north Tuesday on through the remainder of the forecast period will continue with an east or northeast flow leading to more flurry chances. Temperatures are expected to be generally around seasonal normals.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 551 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

A strong cold front has blasted through the region, with widespread gusty NW winds impacting the airports. Winds will drop off some heading through tonight, but gusty conditions are expected into the evening. Of course the typical prevailing MVFR CIGS will be common over the TAF period, with MVFR/IFR VSBYS at times within lake effect snow bands. The greater threat for reduced VSBYS will be at PLN/TVC.

MARINE. Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

A strong cold front has blasted through the region, with widespread advisory level NW winds resulting in periods of lake effect snow showers. Winds will drop off some heading through tonight, but many nearshore waters will continue to feel those advisory speeds. The gradient relaxes further heading through Saturday, as higher pressure traverse the region. Winds kick up again out of the south Sunday, in advance of the next area of low pressure. There is a good chance for more advisory speeds, along with some light snow.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016- 017-021-022-027-028-099. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for MIZ086. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ347>349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ345-346. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ341. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	30 mi	55 min	NNW 9.9 G 17	15°F	33°F		1012.3 hPa	7°F
WSLM4	33 mi	43 min	NW 20	15°F			1013.2 hPa	5°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	34 mi	33 min	NNW 20 G 26	21°F			1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

Last 24hr

W16 G23

W11 G19

W12 G19

W11 G15

W10 G15

W13 G17

W12 G17

N14 G18

NW12 G16

NW14 G20

NW14 G22

NW19 G23

NW17 G24

NW18 G24

NW12 G19

NW16 G21

NW15 G22

NW17 G26

NW16 G20

NW12 G17

NW9 G18

NW14 G20

NW12 G21

N15 G21

1 day ago

SW15

SW14 G19

SW13 G19

S15

S16

S13 G20

S11 G18

S6

S9 G14

SW15 G19

SW11 G17

S9

SW14 G19

SW14 G23

W13 G21

W14 G23

SW17 G26

W17 G24

W20 G26

W16 G28

W15 G21

W17 G24

W12 G16

W12 G17

2 days ago

NW11 G16

NW11 G17

NW12 G20

NW12 G20

NW15 G20

NW11 G16

NW12 G17

NW10 G20

NW11 G17

NW12 G17

NW15 G20

NW12 G18

NW10 G17

NW15 G19

NW14 G21

W11 G16

NW13 G18

NW11 G17

W9 G15

W8 G12

W7

SW6

SW6

S9

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI	3 mi	18 min	W 5	7.00 mi	Overcast	17°F	8°F	68%	1013.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI	16 mi	19 min	N 7	7.00 mi	Light Snow	16°F	10°F	77%	1015 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI	18 mi	18 min	NW 15 G 19	5.00 mi	Overcast with Haze	19°F	8°F	62%	1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

Last 24hr

SW10 G21

W15 G23

W12 G20

W10 G22

W10 G20

W8

W6

W5

W7 G16

N8 G18

NW6 G14

W6

NW6 G14

NW8 G14

NW11 G16

W5 G15

W10 G14

W7

W11 G15

W6

W8

W4

NW10 G15

W3

1 day ago

SW13 G19

SW14 G21

SW11 G21

S12 G18

SW9 G14

S8 G14

S5

S7

SW6

SW14 G23

SW14 G25

SW13 G21

SW11 G18

SW8

SW15 G21

SW14 G24

W16 G25

W17 G24

SW16 G24

W16 G27

W15 G24

W13 G25

W12 G25

W14 G20

2 days ago

W6

NW10

NW10 G17

W6 G15

W4

W9

NW8

NW10 G15

NW8

NW6

NW7

NW6

NW6

W7

NW6 G16

W7

W6

NW7

NW8

W5

NW4

Calm

SW8 G16

SW13 G18

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.