Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay View, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 9:16PM Tuesday July 27, 2021 2:06 AM EDT (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:35PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1105 Pm Edt Mon Jul 26 2021
Overnight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202107271115;;515294 FZUS53 KAPX 270305 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1105 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-271115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay View, MI
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location: 45.38, -84.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 270402 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1202 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 437 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Convection has developed over ne WI, with a relatively large cluster nearing MNM. The airmass over ne WI has surface dew points in the mid 60s to near 70f. On our side of Lake MI, dew points are in the low 60s along the coast, and in the 50s inland. We are not unstable on this side of the lake, and CAMs are in good agreement that convection will struggle to cross the lake until much later this evening. (Mind you, those CAMS were earlier in agreement that convection would not fire in ne WI this afternoon.) Am keeping the early evening forecast dry for now in nw lower MI, but will need to monitor of course.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 333 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

. Showers and storms return for some tonight .

High impact weather potential:

Nw flow aloft continues, with a jet max/shortwave digging toward southern Manitoba. Surface high pressure continues to drift se- ward from se IA toward the OH Valley. Warm/moist return flow is increasing into the eastern Dakotas and MN, and a warm front is becoming better defined in that area. Wx is quiet here presently, with only a few to sct cu in some spots. But active wx is progged to move into the area, toward and especially after midnight.

A plume of significant instability (MlCape values 1.5k-2k j/kg)is only just now starting to advance across the warm sector into sw MN. The tip of this plume eventually arcs toward western Superior and surrounding land areas this evening. There it will encounter the digging shortwave and associated heights falls, helping initiate convection over northern MN and western upper MI shortly after 00Z/8pm. Fast mid-level flow (wnw 500mb winds of 50-60kt) will quickly push activity se-ward with time. As is all too typical, instability will be relatively meager here (mid to high triple- digit MuCape values), with organized convection likely to be in a weakening state when it arrives overnight. But shear values are impressive (0-6km bulk shear circa 50kt in northern sections). Not out of the question for overnight storms to pose a wind damage threat just out of sheer momentum.

Only start to introduce very small pops toward 10-11pm, with likely pops south of M-28 and north of M-32 arriving after midnight. Axis of highest pops will settle southward toward M-32 and M-72 as we approach dawn. Localized rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.0" are forecast, mainly after 2 am.

Min temps were lowered a touch, as we will have a short window to see some radiative cooling before clouds increase. Min temps near 60 to the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 333 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

. Lingering rain and thunder chances through Tuesday afternoon .

High impact weather potential: Lingering hit and miss thunder possible through Tuesday afternoon, although none are expected to become severe at this time.

Upper flow regime remains fairly steady with high pressure centered over the western half of the CONUS and low amplitude troughing across the far eastern side. This northwesterly flow between the two said features will produce some chances of rain through early afternoon Tuesday with ample moisture from monsoonal moisture being advected in on lower levels combining with already available moisture and mid-level disturbances riding the eastern periphery of aforementioned ridge centered over the Rocky mountain chain and into northern Michigan. Instability will be lacking over northern Michigan throughout Tuesday from stratiform precip/clouds as convection upstream flows into our area. Rain chances will diminish throughout the afternoon hours Tuesday as a narrow area of drier air takes over from surface high pressure centered to our west and another mid-level perturbation approaches from the northwest. This next disturbance will once again bring rain chances into the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and continue into the next forecast period.

Winds will be light and variable Tuesday before a more southerly component takes over ahead of the next disturbance . but still remain light through Wednesday night. Could see some gusts around 10- 15 mph during the afternoon hours Wednesday due to diurnal mixing.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s during the afternoon hours and drop to the mid 50s to 60 degrees Tuesday night.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 333 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

. More shower/storm chances at times .

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now.

Northwest flow aloft talked about in the short term section above continues relatively unabated through the rest of the week. Current trends support next fast moving wave (mentioned in the previous forecast period) continuing shower potential through early afternoon Thursday. Models are hinting at some moderately heavy rain amounts in a relatively short timeframe . especially south of the M-55 cooridor. Another wave may possibly arrive Saturday giving us additional rain chances through early Sunday. Seasonably mild conditions will continue, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday, but "cooling" to mostly in the 70s for Friday and most of the rest of the long term forecast period.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1150 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Main concern is the line of thunderstorms moving out of W Upper and N Wisconsin. Timing on this line is for sometime around 07z/Tue. Think that the first hour or two of the line will have the thunder, then rain showers after the line goes through. The thunderstorms are elevated convection, so low level wind shear will be an issue through the first 3 to 6 hours of the TAFs. AFter that, the winds will begin to mix. CIGS will lift by 12z/Tue, and then the skies are expected to clear out by the afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 333 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Weak systems passing thru the region will kick off occasional shower/t-storm chances. But winds will remain relatively light, and waves benign. Sw-erly breezes tonight, becoming northern by late Tue and Tue night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JL MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 7 mi26 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 70°F 70°F1 ft1015.1 hPa
45194 30 mi96 min 70°F 69°F1 ft
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 30 mi156 min S 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 70°F1011.8 hPa64°F
45175 32 mi26 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 73°F1014.3 hPa66°F
WSLM4 33 mi36 min SSW 8.9 71°F 69°F1013.9 hPa63°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 34 mi26 min WSW 8.9 G 11 71°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI3 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair65°F62°F88%1013.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI16 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair61°F60°F97%1013.7 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI18 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair68°F63°F82%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W3W5W5SW6W8SW6SW5W6W3SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W4SW5SW7W5W6W6W5W5W8W6W7W5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm
2 days agoS6CalmS7N3E5E3CalmW5SW6SE4CalmW3NW8W6SW6W7SW6SW3W5W6W3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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