Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay View, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 5:28PM Friday January 22, 2021 11:12 AM EST (16:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:47PMMoonset 2:38AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1004 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Freezing spray. Snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Freezing spray. Scattered snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Scattered flurries. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202101222315;;314832 FZUS53 KAPX 221504 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1004 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-222315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay View, MI
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location: 45.38, -84.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 221500 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1000 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 954 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

Northwest flow lake effect will continue through today as shot of modified Arctic air remains overhead. Excellent over-water thermal gradient and good lift through a near-surface dendritic growth layer helping compensate some for both limited inversion heights and nearly non-existent synoptic moisture contribution. Diurnal disruption will probably help break up better banding this afternoon. Still, given persistence of snow showers and transient pockets of over inch per hour snowfall rates, do expect at least a few more inches in the current advisory areas. Just a few much lighter snow showers and flurries outside the favored snow belt locations. Definitely chilly today, with highs in the teens to lower 20s, and wind chill values in the single digits . both above and below zero.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

Went ahead and extended the winter weather advisory for Emmet and Cheboygan counties into early this evening. Signals in hi-res guidance suggesting some decent snows and areas of blowing and drifting remain possible over this time.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

Impactful weather: Accumulating lake effect snow.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A blast of cold air has overtaken nrn Michigan, behind departing low pressure now in Quebec. All of the synoptic scale forcing and moisture has exited east with the parent shortwave activity, leaving somewhat still disrupted pure lake effect snow bands. Winds were also quite gusty, as a tight pressure gradient has moved in overhead. This has continued to lead to some blowing/drifting snow. Sure feels like winter now. There were some other wiggles or perturbations in the WNW flow aloft, but there was only very little/weak -divQ seen upstream.

The cold air remains solidly in place today and tonight, with lake effect snow persisting in the typical snowbelts, via gusty/cold NW winds. Despite it really feeling like winter out there, inversion heights barely sneak above 4kft while cyclonic convergence keeps a nice Lake Superior tap going today. Am just not seeing this as an impressive snow maker, with most of eastern upper, NW/far nrn lower Michigan seeing another 1-3 inches, with higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches for parts of Chippewa county, as well as the big "5" of NW lower (typical snowbelts). Harsher conditions for LES develop through tonight, with incoming subtle mid level height rises and lowering inversions to 3-3.5kft. We will lose the cyclonic convergence and snow shower coverage will decrease, but it's gonna keep snowing. Only a few additional tenths of snow in the snowbelts overnight.

Will keep all winter headlines intact attm. Will be watching latest radar trends to see what to do with Emmet and Cheboygan counties (advisory ends at 8am).

Highs today will generally be in upper teens to lower 20s. Lows tonight will mostly be in the single digits above zero to teens.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

. Lingering Lake Effect then Light Snow Likely .

High impact weather: Slick spots on some roadways Sunday?

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops through the period.

It's cold enough for lake effect to continue Saturday but surface high pressure passing by to the south is expected to back winds from westerly to southwesterly through the day. Mean winds continue to back Saturday night to southerly. So expect some light lake effect bands to be shifting around with time with some minor light accumulations possible.

An Alberta Clipper passing by to our north with a ribbon of moisture extending southward across the region is expected to bring a period of light snow to the region Sunday (mainly in the morning). Accumulations should be generally in the inch or less range. However, there could be some southerly flow lake enhancement in western Mackinac county which could boost local accumulations to two or three.

Highs Saturday remaining chilly and range from the upper teens to around 20 north to the low and mid 20s south. Highs Sunday generally in the mid and upper 20s. Temperatures Saturday night will be tricky as skies try to briefly clear out in the evening while winds are fairly light. Could see a few spots plummet with the fresh snow cover around. Forecast lows will be in the upper single digits and teens but wouldn't be shocked if a few spots even briefly dipped below zero before slowly rising late as clouds increase.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

. Seasonable Temperatures with Possible Flurries .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Extended models are coming into better agreement that low pressure passes by well to south of northern Michigan Monday into Monday night yielding only low chance pops across far southern zones. It looks cold enough for some light easterly flow lake effect flurries off of Lake Huron during that time as moisture doesn't look very impressive. Strong high pressure off to the north Tuesday on through the remainder of the forecast period will continue with an east or northeast flow leading to more flurry chances. Temperatures are expected to be generally around seasonal normals.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 551 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

A strong cold front has blasted through the region, with widespread gusty NW winds impacting the airports. Winds will drop off some heading through tonight, but gusty conditions are expected into the evening. Of course the typical prevailing MVFR CIGS will be common over the TAF period, with MVFR/IFR VSBYS at times within lake effect snow bands. The greater threat for reduced VSBYS will be at PLN/TVC.

MARINE. Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

A strong cold front has blasted through the region, with widespread advisory level NW winds resulting in periods of lake effect snow showers. Winds will drop off some heading through tonight, but many nearshore waters will continue to feel those advisory speeds. The gradient relaxes further heading through Saturday, as higher pressure traverse the region. Winds kick up again out of the south Sunday, in advance of the next area of low pressure. There is a good chance for more advisory speeds, along with some light snow.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016- 017-021-022-027-028-099. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for MIZ086. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ347>349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ345-346. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ341. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 30 mi55 min NNW 9.9 G 17 15°F 33°F1012.3 hPa7°F
WSLM4 33 mi43 min NW 20 15°F 1013.2 hPa5°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 34 mi33 min NNW 20 G 26 21°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI3 mi18 minW 57.00 miOvercast17°F8°F68%1013.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI16 mi19 minN 77.00 miLight Snow16°F10°F77%1015 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI18 mi18 minNW 15 G 195.00 miOvercast with Haze19°F8°F62%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW13
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2 days agoW6NW10NW10
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W7W6NW7NW8W5NW4CalmSW8
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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