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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay View, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 151014 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 614 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Impactful weather: Marginal. Showers and thunderstorms expected, mainly this afternoon and evening in nrn lower. A few storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. Locally heavy rain also possible in NE lower.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

An upper level ridge was working through the eastern Great Lakes early this morning, while large scale upper troughing dominated the central provinces of Canada, down into the nrn Plains. At the sfc, a cold front was draped from Ontario, down through the western Great Lakes, all the way into the srn Plains. A corridor of deep moisture and slowly diminishing instability (a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE in eastern upper to near 1000j/kg in mid Lake Michigan), was laid out along and ahead of the front, and when combined with upper jet forcing, theta-e/low level convergence, and weak DPVA with less than desirable 850-500mb lapse rates of 5.5-6.0 c/km, is still leading to a broken band of shower and occasional thunder. This band was moving across eastern upper and Lake Michigan. The stronger storms and more widespread thunder was way off to the SW of us.

The cold front will gradually work it's way into nrn Michigan today, before slowly exiting off to our SE tonight. That broken band of mainly showers, will drift into/through all areas except the far SE CWA this morning. Then, diurnal heating and destabilization will be able to redevelop/expand stronger showers and storms ahead of the front, impacting mainly nrn lower Michigan this afternoon into this evening. There is a nice little shortwave with another pop of forcing from DPVA, theta-e advection and upper divergence, that rides up along the front this evening, which will result in more post-frontal showers that will be able to spread back into more of eastern upper as well as nrn lower. Gradually, loss of daytime heating will result in diminishing instability and resultant thunder chances through the night, while the entire band of convection starts trying to depart the region, but the expectation is for some showers to still be ongoing across NE lower into daybreak.

MLCAPES of less than a hundred j/kg are expected in eastern upper this afternoon, ranging to up to 1600 j/kg closer to Saginaw Bay. The higher CAPE values are co-located with 0-6km bulk shear of around 35 knots. While the best coverage of precipitation will be around the front, can foresee areas SE of it seeing some more discreet cells develop this afternoon. We should be able to heat up decently from roughly Missaukee county over to Alpena county, as the low level stuck clouds with the front hold firm north of there. All of nrn Michigan is in a marginal risk for severe storms, but I think that's buffered a little to the north. Again, Missaukee county over to Alpena county, and areas SE of there look to have the best risk for something severe. Main severe threats would be for large hail and damaging winds.

Highs today will range from the upper 70s/around 80F in eastern upper, to the low 90s near Saginaw Bay. Lows tonight will mostly be in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing will continue to shift eastward across southern Canada/Great Lakes region through the end of the week while ridging makes its way across the northern Great Plains in behind. This should make its way overhead Friday night as a second wave also treks across the U.S./Canada border. At the surface, a cyclone near Hudson Bay will continue to weaken as broad high pressure grips much of the eastern CONUS heading into the weekend.

Forecast/Details:

A few lingering showers are possible across far NE lower MI at the start of the period, but should quickly move out as the morning progresses. Afternoon highs look to cool down slightly Thursday behind the front, but will still remain in the low 80s for most. Northerly winds will also help with the cooler feel. However, this front will be rather diffuse by the time it gets through northern MI. Dewpoints in the low/mid 60s could leave the door open for a stray shower/thunderstorm Thursday afternoon. While marginal surface- based instability could exist (SBCAPE near 500 J/kg), any showers/storms trying to develop would be battling low-level subsidence via cold air advection through the first 1-2km of the profile. Some upper-level support provided by a shortwave treking overhead could help these chances, but confidence is low at this time. Ridging will move in behind this shortwave Thursday night, keeping rain chances muted heading into the weekend with subsidence aloft. Temperatures will begin to ramp up on Friday with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s for most.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now . Monitoring thunderstorm potential over weekend.

A mostly zonal upper-air pattern will take hold through the weekend as the jet stream sets up across the northern CONUS near the border. The main jet core looks to move over the northern Great Lakes Saturday while subtle shortwaves/speed maxima embedded in the parent flow could move across the area throughout the weekend into early next week, especially as the flow looks to sag southward some towards the end of the period. Southerly/southwesterly low-level flow will advect warm, moist air into northern MI, aiding to raise high temperatures into the upper 80s/low 90s across much of the area over the weekend. Heat indices could reach close to 100 for some as well. Instability in excess of 1,500 J/kg MLCAPE both Saturday and Sunday afternoon presents the chance for rain/thunder, and potentially a few stronger thunderstorms. Confidence in timing and details is currently low, but will increase as the weekend nears. While guidance suggests a frontal passage late in the Sunday/Monday timeframe, a relatively moist airmass looks to remain nearby heading into early next week. This would ease moisture return into the region, keeping at least a small chance for additional showers and storms around through early week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 614 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

A cold front will work into nrn Michigan today, before dropping SE of the region tonight. This front will bring some isolated to scattered light showers this morning, before showers and storms become more numerous/likely with daytime heating and subsequent destabilization. A few storms may be severe this afternoon and evening, maybe more so at APN, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. There will still be some showers going behind the front heading through the overnight hours.

MVFR/IFR VSBYS can be expected in the heavier showers/storms. As far as CIGS, there will be a period of MVFR conditions with the front, however, trends are for less redevelopment/expansion of MVFR CIGS tonight.

Light southerly winds will become highly variable as the front rolls through, and with afternoon lake breezes. This variability continues Wednesday night.

MARINE. Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

A cold front will work into nrn Michigan today, before dropping SE of the region tonight. This front will bring a broken band of showers this morning, before showers and thunderstorms become more numerous/likely this afternoon/evening with daytime heating and subsequent destabilization. A few storms may be severe for the Lake Huron nearshore, mainly Alpena south. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. Showers remain likely behind the front through tonight, a few of which may linger in Lake Huron into Thursday morning. Portions of Lake Huron, especially south of Alpena, could see a few more showers and storms Thursday afternoon, before relative high pressure moves in Thursday night.

Light southerly winds will become highly variable with the front, and with lake breezes this afternoon. Light winds with a good degree of variability continue through Thursday, before winds back more out of the W/SW Thursday night. No significant winds/waves.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	30 mi	69 min			67°F
45175	32 mi	30 min	WNW 1.9 G 3.9	71°F	69°F		1014 hPa	63°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	34 mi	29 min	SSW 5.1 G 11	88°F			1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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SW5 G8

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI	3 mi	74 min	SSW 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	73°F	60°F	64%	1014.2 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI	16 mi	75 min	SE 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	70°F	60°F	71%	1014 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI	18 mi	74 min	S 6	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	72°F	60°F	66%	1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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