Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 3:53 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KBTV 041744 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 144 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains over the region today and will bring one more day of dry and mild weather. Widespread wetting rainfall returns to the region on Sunday, along with breezy conditions.
A period of warmer and sunnier conditions are expected for the start of the week, with more unsettled weather returning by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains in overall great shape. Temperatures have reached the mid 60s to low 70s despite mostly cloudy skies due to the omega block over New England that has helped to mitigate the cool light maritime flow from coastal New England.

Previous Discussion...An occluded front is currently decaying as it is moving across the North Country due to a stubborn ridge of high pressure over the region. The front has been able to bring a couple showers to northern New York, but those should mostly fall apart before they reach Vermont. Light southeasterly flow is helping to advect a cooler maritime airmass into areas east of the Greens and it is creating a relatively sharp temperature gradient tonight.
Lows east of the greens will be in the 40s but the in the Champlain and St. lawrence Valleys, temperatures will only fall into the mid to upper 50s. Any showers over northern New York should fall apart by daybreak so Saturday will be a mostly dry day. Some high clouds will linger into the day but they should be thin enough to allow a decent amount of sunshine, particularly over Vermont. Temperatures will climb into the 60s to around 70, very similar to yesterday.
Another front slowly moves across the region Saturday night into Sunday, and with some connection to gulf moisture, it will bring more meaningful precipitation. Most areas should see up to around a half inch of rain so there are no flooding concerns. Some elevated instability should develop during the day on Sunday, particularly over northern New York, so some thunderstorms and heavier convective showers are possible. However, there is no severe threat. A southerly low-level jet will pass over the region on Sunday and will cause some channeled flow in the Champlain Valley. Winds could gust up to 30 kts over Lake Champlain. However, winds will be limited by the water temperatures being colder than the air and by the strongest winds occurring when the precipitation is falling. These two factors will limit the ability for the stronger winds to mix down.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Widespread rain showers will be ongoing Sunday night as a frontal boundary moves across the region. Although it won't be all that much colder behind the front, the incoming airmass will be much drier, so expect showers will rapidly come to an end by early Monday morning. Another weak surface trough will move through Monday afternoon, which may allow a few additional showers to develop, but any activity would be isolated and very light in nature given the dry air that will be in place. Ridging spreads into the area Monday night, keeping conditions dry. Monday's highs will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, with the warmest conditions occurring where sun can break through the clouds. Lows both Sunday night and Monday night will mostly be in the 40s, though Sunday will be more in the mid 40s to around 50F, while Monday night will be a little cooler.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday will be dry as we remain under the influence of ridging, but then precipitation chances will increase by Wednesday and continue through the remainder of the week as several waves move through the nearly zonal flow aloft, and eventually around a developing upper trough centered to our north.
Exact timing and placement of these waves and associated precipitation is difficult to pinpoint at this juncture, but expect every day through the latter half of the week to have at some chance of showers. Instability doesn't look all that impressive, though a few rumbles of thunder may be possible Wednesday over western sections of northern NY, and perhaps far southern VT on Thursday.
Tuesday will be the warmest day under lots of sunshine; highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Things should cool down slightly thereafter, though exactly how much will depend on exact timing and placement of shower activity and cloud cover.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...Expect VFR conditions to persist for all terminals through 12z Sunday. Winds are generally under 10 kt out of the south or southeast, except for northeast at KMSS.
Channeled or terrain driven flow can result in 15 kt winds at KPBG, KBTV and KRUT. After 12z Sunday, increasing shower coverage will lead to ceilings lowering to MVFR for most terminals. Additionally, LLWS increase to 45 kt at 2000 ft for most terminals after 12z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Sorel
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:26 AM EDT     1.14 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:48 AM EDT     1.12 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 01:25 PM EDT     1.13 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     1.12 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet

Islets Perces
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:15 AM EDT     0.77 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:36 AM EDT     0.77 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:44 PM EDT     0.80 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     0.78 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Burlington, VT,