Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Richford, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:11PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 4:05 AM EST (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 6:08PMMoonset 9:21AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richford, VT
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location: 45.42, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 010827 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 327 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. Chances for precipitation remain across the area through late in the week with the potential for some lake effect precipitation Wednesday. Active weather remains through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 1248 AM EST Tuesday . No significant changes were needed with this update. Winds have peaked and are now slowly abating as expected. Generally seeing gusts in the 25-35 mph range now. The dry slot can be seen on satellite approaching from the south, and with best dynamics lifting to our north, precipitation has become more scattered in nature. Isolated- scattered showers will continue overnight. Temperatures are mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area, and still expect they'll rise a bit, or at least hold steady, through the remainder of tonight. The forecast has this all pretty much covered, so just made a few minor tweaks to incorporate the latest observations and radar trends.

Previous discussion . All in all, forecast remains on track this afternoon. The main shield of rainfall associated with the warm front will continue to move northward over the next couple hours. Expect precipitation across northern New York to transition to move showery in nature over the next hour or two based on radar trends upstream as dry slot moves in. An area of moderate to heavy rainfall currently located across the lower Hudson River Valley and across Massachusetts will move northward across south/central Vermont.

At this current time, our thinking on the wind threat remains the same for gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range along the western slopes, with isolated gusts up to 50 mph possible. As first wave of rain overspread the area, areas which saw an initial burst of winds (generally 30-35 mph) really stabilized, however as precipitation is beginning to exit Mendon and Brandon VTRANs sites and KRUT are reporting gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range once again. Therefore, going forecast remains in great shape with regard to wind forecast at this time. Both Mt Mansfield and Whiteface have been steadily creeping up with sustained winds on Whiteface at 60kt and Mansfield around 50kt. This indicates the strengthening 850mb jet is finally beginning to work into our area. Based on upstream VAD wind profiles and model guidance we'll still see this 850mb jet over the area for the next several hours and therefore continue with the threat for downsloping winds across Rutland/Addison counties from now until ~6PM and for the northern Greens (Chittenden and Franklin counties) from 6-9 PM.

Winds should start to diminish towards 02z as the better jet dynamics move off to our north and east. Precipitation during this time will become very scattered/isolated in nature as mid level dry slot works into the area. Winds will transition once again back out of the south around 10-15 mph. Higher gusts are likely over Lake Champlain where channeled flow will see winds in the 20-30 mph range. As upper level trough remains parked to our west, expect several chances for showers throughout the day tomorrow. Temperatures will remain warm enough in the lowest levels that this should remain all rain (while the highest summits will likely see snow) during the day tomorrow. As SW flow becomes established across northern New York and colder air filters in late Tuesday snow showers are possible for portions of southern St Lawrence Valley and the Adirondacks. Accumulations through Wednesday morning are expected to be less than 0.5".

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 326 AM EST Tuesday . The upper level low finally pushes across the North Country Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. As the low tracks through the region, we should see continued light snow showers, especially across the western slopes of the Adirondack and Green Mountains. Additional accumulations of an inch or less are expected across the aforementioned locations with little to no accumulation expected elsewhere. By Wednesday afternoon, mid-level height rises are expected across the region with weak subsidence building across the region. Clearing skies will be seen Thursday afternoon with partly to mostly sunny skies expected across the region. Temperatures will remain right around seasonal normals through the short term with highs into the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 326 AM EST Tuesday . We will see rain and snow showers develop across northern New York Friday afternoon as we see another upper level low track to our north. Increasing upper level divergence coinciding with some shortwave energy ahead of a positively tilted trough should be enough to spark some snow showers. A weak surface front will also be passing through the region on Friday but the low level convergence at this time looks rather unimpressive as the parent surface low tracks well north of the International Border while the surface low is in the weakening phase. Some minor snow accumulations look possible above 1500 ft but lower elevations will struggle to accumulate as temperatures should warm into the upper 30s to possibly mid 40s. These showers will dissipate through the morning hours on Saturday when weak high pressure builds across the region.

A brief shot of quiet weather is expected throughout the day on Saturday but that looks to change on Sunday as we see another potent east coast storm. Looking at the current state of some of the teleconnections, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are both turning negative and are expected to continue to turn negative. This points to increasing blocking over Greenland which favors a trough developing across the Northeast. Going back to that potent east coast storm system on Tuesday, the conditions look ripe for a rapidly depending cyclone that is expected to track across northern Virginia and just inside of benchmark as it accelerates eastward. The main moisture stream should remain well offshore but all signs appear to us being on the cold side of the system. While it looks like we could see snow with this system, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the low track based on the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. Any snowfall with this system looks to exit eastward by Monday morning as the low accelerates eastward. However, snow showers will once again be possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday as models hint at a weak clipper low tracking into the North Country. Nevertheless, it appears the extended forecast should remain active; especially as long as the AO and NAO remain negative.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Through 06Z Wednesday . Flight categories range from VFR to IFR with wide variety of wind speeds and direction too as surface low tracks overhead. Precipitation is becoming more scattered. Ceilings likely steady through 09Z. Mentioned LLWS across the region due to strong southeast winds at 2000ft agl, which will subside towards 09Z. As these winds subside, BTV could briefly see MVFR ceilings. After 10Z, winds trend southerly at 5 to 10 knots, becoming gusty beyond 15Z. Ceilings trending higher beyond 12Z. Showers possible after 15Z.

Outlook .

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Lahiff/LaRocca NEAR TERM . Hastings/LaRocca/Neiles SHORT TERM . Clay LONG TERM . Clay AVIATION . Haynes/Neiles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT34 mi70 minN 02.00 miDrizzle49°F46°F90%995.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFSO

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4SW4S3S4S5S3S4S6SW6S6S7S4S4CalmCalmS4SE3SE3E4SE3SE4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmS3S3S3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW4CalmSW3SW3SW4SW4SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     0.96 meters High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:21 AM EST     0.95 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 03:57 PM EST     0.97 meters High Tide
Tue -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:16 PM EST     0.96 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Tue -- 05:16 AM EST     0.94 meters High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:06 PM EST     0.90 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 04:02 PM EST     0.90 meters High Tide
Tue -- 04:07 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.