Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Richford, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:53PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:29 PM EDT (03:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:25PMMoonset 10:46AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richford, VT
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location: 45.42, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 202351
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
751 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon with the
potential for some organized storms capable of gusty winds,
locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. A cold front
will push through Thursday morning, followed by high pressure
building in and a return to cooler and drier weather for the end
of the week.

Near term through Wednesday night
As of 736 pm edt Tuesday... The forecast remains nearly spot on
as of early evening. I did blend current hourly temperatures and
dewpoints into our extant forecast later this evening, and
incorporated some newer model rh data to tweak arrival time of
mid upper level clouds later tonight. All and all these were
essentially noise-level adjustments. Have a great evening.

Prior discussion...

period of quiet weather continues tonight as high pressure
departs the region to the east. Light southerly winds will
continue overnight, which will keep overnight temperatures
relatively warm despite the initial clear skies. Clouds will
spread over the region after midnight as a warm front approaches
the area. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Interesting setup coming together for Wednesday with several
ingredients present for the development of some strong to severe
thunderstorms. However, as has been the case most of the summer
for the north country, several factors also working against the
threat... So challenging forecast to weigh out both sides with
the result being a conditional severe threat for tomorrow. In
the upper levels, synoptic picture features an upper-level low
digging upstream over the northern great lakes region during the
day Wednesday with southwesterly flow increasing over the btv
cwa ahead of the system. Models continue to indicate a shortwave
will move through eastern ny and into western new england
during the early afternoon hours on Wednesday... Which will be a
key player in deep convective initiation. Meanwhile, surface
temperatures and dewpoints will increase quickly on
strengthening southwesterly flow just ahead of the wave. A warm
front will lift through southern and central new england during
the morning hours, which will spread some cloud cover over much
of vermont and into eastern new york... Limiting development of
instability. Thus, greatest axis of instability is progged to
develop over the saint lawrence valley (1500+ j kg), with degree
of destabilization further east still in question. However if
vermont is able to destabilize after morning cloud cover,
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in the early
afternoon ahead of the upper wave and along a prefrontal trough.

Severe threat: best deep layer shear will be removed to the
northwest closer to the heart of the upper trough, but still
looking at 25-35 kts 0-6 km shear in our forecast area... Supportive
of organized strong to severe convection with organized
multicells being the primary convective mode. Forecast
hodographs indicating 0-3 km SRH values of over 250 m2 s2 over
southern vermont... So the potential for rotating sustained
updrafts will be relatively high with any storms that develop in
southern into central vermont. Low and mid-level shear and
helicity values decrease further north through the remainder of
the cwa. Lapse rates are not overly impressive, in fact latest
model runs have trended back on the amount of dry air available
in the mid- levels, instead indicating near moist adiabatic
lapse rates. This does work somewhat against the severe wind
threat, but overall after evaluating all the factors still
seeing enough signals for some storms with potentially damaging
gusty winds, so have included mention of this threats in the
forecast.

Rainfall: with regards to rainfall amounts, storms will be
capable of locally heavy rainfall given pw values > 1.75 inches
and deep warm cloud layers of upwards of 12k ft. However,
corfidi vectors between 15 and 25 kts suggest storms will be
moving fast enough to not pose any widespread flooding threats.

Total QPF between Wednesday morning and Thursday morning is
generally in the quarter to two thirds inch range, with locally
amounts around an inch possible within any thunderstorms.

Storms and showers will dissipate Wednesday night as a cold
front moves through closer to dawn. Could still get a rumble of
thunder or two overnight, but main show will be over shortly
after sunset. Wednesday night lows will be in the mid to upper
60s.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
As of 430 pm edt Tuesday... Cold front will push east of our
region early Thursday and chance for showers will decrease
through the day lingering longest in eastern vt. Winds aloft
will turn out of the west advecting in lower dewpoints but
better cold air advection does not arrive until overnight
Thursday night. Maximum temperatures will range from the lower
70s to lower 80s Thursday afternoon. Timing of the front
unfavorable for thunderstorm development and not a lot of
moisture with this feature. Surface high pressure will begin to
ridge into the area Thursday night, temperatures will drop into
the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 430 pm edt Tuesday... Still looks quiet for the extended
portion of the forecast, mainly surface high pressure dominating
the weather pattern from Friday through early next week.

Lingering upper level trough still pushing across the area
Friday into Saturday, though mainly just clouds expected with
the trough. Next real chance for showers not until Monday night
into Tuesday when next frontal system approaches. Temperatures
will trend warmer after upper trough finally pushes east of the
area Saturday night.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 00z Thursday...VFR through 12z as high pressure moves
east of the region. High clouds will overspread the region
after 06z as a warm front moves through, which should limit fog
potential overnight. Will see clouds lowering and some showers
develop after 12z especially kmss krut. Some thunderstorms
possible after 16z especially from kslk eastward across the
champlain valley including kbtv around 18z and the rest of vt
after 18z and may be out of the forecast region by 23z. Have
left mention of thunderstorms out until timing and location get
more specific. Any thunderstorms after 16z may be strong with
brief gusty winds, llws, and ifr possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shra, slight chance tsra early.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Duell
near term... Duell jmg
short term... Neiles
long term... Neiles
aviation... Sisson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45166 46 mi44 min W 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 74°F1 ft61°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT34 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair65°F62°F94%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFSO

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--Calm--CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalm--S3S3SW4W4SW5S6SW3--CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago--S3S4S5S5----S5S6S6S9
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2 days agoCalmS3S3S5S5S3S5S4S3S3S3S5S3SE3SW5S7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     0.57 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.58 meters High Tide
Tue -- 10:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:30 PM EDT     0.56 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     0.58 meters High Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Tue -- 02:11 AM EDT     0.88 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.91 meters High Tide
Tue -- 10:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT     0.90 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT     0.94 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.