Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 11:21 PM   Moonset 6:45 AM

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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 650 Am Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Saturday evening - .
Today - SE wind 10 to 20 kts with a few gusts to around 25 kts. A slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tonight - SE wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday - S wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of rain showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Saturday night - W wind 10 to 20 kts veering N 10 to 15 kts after midnight. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 261134 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 734 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions today with minimum relative humidity dropping to 20-30 percent over much of the area while south to southeast winds become gusty to 20-30mph.
- Active weather pattern throughout extended period with above- normal precipitation and temperatures expected.
- Low pressure systems bring light to moderate rain tonight into Saturday then again Sunday night into Monday night. By Tuesday morning 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected across the UP with locally higher amounts possible.
- Marginal risk for a few strong thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds south-central and east Saturday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level troffing over western N America with a vigorous shortwave over CO that is supporting shra/tsra across the Plains, particularly over Nebraska.
Downstream, mid-level ridging is over the Mississippi Valley, extending into northern Ontario. The associated sfc high pres is well to the e over Quebec and the ne U.S. Closer to home, it's another quiet night across the fcst area under clear skies. With the sfc high pres well to the e and low pres over western KS, s to se winds are stirring, particularly across western and northern Upper MI. As a result, current temps are higher than yesterday at this time despite the clear skies and similarly dry column. Current temps mostly range thru the 30s, but 40s are noted over the w, and some of the traditional cold spots central and e are down into the mid/upper 20s F. The northern lights are currently showing up on our n facing camera.

Low pres over western KS will lift to eastern Nebraska today. Pres gradient btwn this low at around 990mb and high pres ridging at around 1032mb over New England will support increasing s to se winds today. High clouds will be on the increase, but that won't stop sufficient building of mixed layer to tap stronger winds. Fcst soundings suggest gusts of 25-30mph will become common today. In addition, there will still be drier air aloft to mix down since moisture feed in response to the Plains low won't reach the area yet today. With temps reaching the upper 50s and lwr 60s F away from marine influences and dwpts likely falling to as low as around 20F, RH will bottom out in the 20-30 pct range. A few spots across the w may slip blo 20 pct. Although temps are a little shy of the typical criteria for elevated fire wx conditions, a couple of drying days, especially yesterday, and the expected winds gusts and low RH support issuing a Special Weather Statement highlighting the elevated fire wx conditions today. Given the antecedent dry air over the area, opted to hold off any shra mention over far western Upper MI until 22z.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The long term period is characterized by active weather as a pair of low pressure systems track northeast across the Upper Great Lakes.
Saturday's forecast is particularly low-confidence due to the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. While above normal temperatures prevail during the extended period, a seasonably strong cold front late Saturday night brings much cooler temps across the northwestern 2/3rds of the area on Sunday.

Starting with tonight, a ~990 mb surface low near Sioux Falls, NE pushes a warm front across our area. As we've seen a few times this spring, the best synoptic forcing stays to our west and the best instability stays to our southeast. Considering the very dry antecedent air mass, I'm skeptical of anything more than light precip amounts although ensemble means indicate locally moderate (~0.50") amounts on the Keweenaw and across the far eastern UP.
Across the far east, a few embedded thunderstorms late tonight justify higher QPF whereas better synoptic forcing justifies higher totals on the Keweenaw.

Saturday afternoon's thunderstorm chances deserve a closer look since a plume of Gulf moisture extends into the Great Lakes region.
Bulk shear of 50-60 kts is more than adequate for organized updrafts, but destabilization remains questionable and may be negated by a mid-level capping inversion. Thunderstorm chances are further complicated by differences in timing of the cold front passage with 00Z HRRR guidance suggesting initiation may be delayed until the front is exiting the UP. Generally think there are too many factors working again severe thunderstorms in our area with the best chances on the southeast fringes of our area (Menominee - Manistique). Aside from thunderstorm chances, there's a brief window during the afternoon/evening where there's potential for gusty winds up to the 40-45 mph range. That potential relies on drier weather prevailing and allowing for deep mixing during the day.

Dry weather is expected behind Saturday's cold front until it lifts north across the area as a warm front on Sunday. Post-frontal cold air advection results in a raw and chilly Sunday, especially at the higher elevations of the west-central UP where daytime highs may struggle to breach the 40F threshold. There appears to be better synoptic forcing with this warm front allowing for moderate to perhaps locally heavy rainfall Sunday into Sunday night. Rain chances become more showery on Monday ahead of the cold front that brings an end to rain chances until the next disturbance approaches late on Tuesday. At first glance, Tuesday's disturbance brings Gulf moisture into the mix for renewed thunderstorm chances. The active pattern appears to continue as another system approaches Thursday night.
Operational and ensemble guidance indicates the late week system will pull a much cooler air mass into the area such that snow chances may return, but rain is much more likely at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 734 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

With very dry air lingering at the lower levels, VFR will prevail at IWD/CMX/SAW into at least the early evening hours. Meanwhile, S to SE winds will become gusty to 20-30kt today at all terminals.
Approaching low pres will then spread sct shra into Upper MI tonight. During tonight, expect IWD/CMX to fall to MVFR while SAW falls to IFR late. Low-level jet moving over the area will result in LLWS developing at all terminals tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Southeast winds gusting up to 25 mph are occurring early this morning with the strongest winds across the east half of the lake.
Southeast winds increase up to 30 knots across the eastern lake Friday afternoon. A few gale force gusts up to 35 knots are possible near the tip of the Keweenaw and the international border through Saturday morning. A low pressure tracks across Lake Superior on Saturday resulting in a period of light and variable winds. Cold air advection increases Saturday night resulting in northerly winds gusting up to 30 kts across north-central portions of the lake.
Another low pressure approaches Lake Superior on Sunday causing winds to back northeasterly and increase to gales across the far western lake. Winds back easterly Sunday night as gales spread across all but far eastern Lake Superior. A local office tool indicates 60-90% chances for 40-45 kt gales across the far western lake Sunday afternoon and evening with lower 25-50% chances across the north-central lake. Gales are forecast to subside on Monday as the low's center lifts across Lake Superior. Winds become west- southwesterly Monday night while decreasing to 20 to 25 knots. Light winds less than 20 knots prevail Tuesday then another system moving through Tuesday night and Wednesday increases west winds to around 25 kts.

Thunderstorms are possible over portions of Lake Superior tonight through Saturday evening then again Sunday evening through Monday evening.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ162.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ240-241.

Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for LSZ243>246-264>266.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ244-245.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ246.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ248.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ249-250.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ251.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for LSZ263.

Lake Michigan...
None.

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