Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:33PM Thursday October 1, 2020 4:41 PM CDT (21:41 UTC) Moonrise 6:52PMMoonset 6:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 253 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..N wind 15 to 20 kts, decreasing to 10 to 15 kts in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Isolated showers in the evening.
Friday..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of sprinkles after midnight.
Saturday..NE wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
LMZ521 Expires:202010020415;;655932 FZUS53 KGRB 011953 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-020415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 012010 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 410 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday) Issued at 409 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2020

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated an amplified pattern with a ridge over western North America and a trough from northern Quebec to the southern Mississippi Valley resulting northwest flow through the western Great Lakes. At the surface, northerly flow prevailed between a ridge through the Plains and a trough from southern Ontario into northern lower Michigan. With 850 mb temps to around -5C (lake sfc temp near 12C) instability supported scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers.

Tonight, continued CAA will drop 850 mb temps to near -7C. Even with some mid level drying, inversion heights remaining around 7k-8k ft with lake induced CAPE values of 300-400 J/Kg will maintain lake the lake effect pcpn. Forecast wet-bulb zero heights also will support a mix or change to snow over inland locations, especially with elevations over 1200 ft. The convective/moisture layer also looks just deep enough to support mainly snow rather than dz/fzdz. Temps dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s may allow some snow to accumulate to around an inch with some brief slushy roads with slipper spots especially on bridges.

Friday, as winds become lighter lake induced troughing and stronger low level convergence is expected to develop focusing the heavier pcpn and greater coverage along or near the shore in Marquette county during the morning. By afternoon, diurnal heating and an even weaker gradient will favor mainly just sct/isold rain showers mainly over inland locations in the west. Highs still struggle back into the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 406 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2020

Mid to upper level troughing will continue over the Upper Great Lakes through most of the weekend with cooler temperatures and periods of mostly lake-effect rain showers but can't rule out some snowflakes mixed in Friday night into Saturday. Troughing finally begins to lift away Sunday with a shortwave approaching before brief ridging and zonal flow Beginning early next week, the pattern briefly becomes more zonal flow Monday into Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to show another shortwave and cold front Tuesday and Wednesday which will bring next chance of showers and temperatures dipping back to around or just below normal for this time of year.

With that upper-level low still hanging around Friday night and with enough moisture and inversion heights being around 800-900mb, still could expect some lake-effect rain showers to occur with a few snow flakes mixed in. Winds will be subsiding as well which should limit the coverage of any lake-effect precip and should end late Friday or early Saturday. Have continued to have slight PoPs in the for the lake-effect.

A shortwave will approach Upper Michigan late Saturday into Sunday, which may end up tracking just south of Upper Michigan and may keep showers out of the cwa. Either way, the upper-level trough will linger into Sunday morning before finally starting to move away from the region. In its wake, developing weak north-northeast flow could be some isolated lake effect rain showers, mixing with some snowflakes/graupel inland late Saturday into Sunday morning before drying out by Sunday afternoon.

A brief period of rising heights and waa thanks to ridging over the west-central CONUS, will make the flow more zonal by Monday with drier conditions and southwest waa flow and as a result ahead of the next shortwave, breezy southwest winds is a possibility. 12z GFS is running high compared to the Canadian and ECMWF so we'll see how this trends over the coming days. With 850mb temps between 5C-7C, this will result in mid to upper 50s for highs. Another shortwave with an associated cold front, looks to move through late Tuesday into Wednesday with southwest flow changing to northwest flow behind the shortwave. Temperatures Tuesday will be around the 60 degree mark but slowly cooling down by Wednesday into Thursday with mostly lower 50s.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 148 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2020

Mainly MVFR cigs are expected with northerly flow lake effect showers expected. There may be some brief periods of VFR, especially at KCMX. The precipitation may mix with or change to snow overnight as even colder air moves in. However, little or no accumulation is expected.

MARINE. (For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 409 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2020

Expect winds to remain elevated from the north into tonight with continued CAA, but slowly diminishing to around 20 knots by tomorrow morning as sfc high pressure moves in from the west. This high pressure persists through the weekend. Models are suggesting a trof to pass over Lake Superior on Tuesday evening, which may bring an increase in winds from the SE to 25 knots ahead of the trof, becoming NW behind the trof to around 25 knots as well.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . JLB LONG TERM . JH AVIATION . JLB MARINE . JLB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi62 min WNW 14 G 17 53°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi54 min N 16 G 18 52°F 62°F1016.6 hPa38°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi62 min NNW 12 G 18 48°F 1016.6 hPa
45014 48 mi42 min NW 12 G 16 53°F 1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Delta County Airport, MI25 mi46 minN 10 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F35°F66%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESC

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W8--W4W7W5W4W6W6W6W7NW6NW5W5NW3NW9NW9N7
G18
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1 day agoSW5SW5SW6SW5SW7W4W4SW4CalmCalmCalmW3W6W4CalmCalmW7NW7NW10
G15
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G22
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N9
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2 days agoNW3N3CalmW3W5W6W7W5W6W6W6W8W8W6W8W9W9W9W11W10SW9SW9SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map


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