Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:46PM Friday August 23, 2019 5:53 AM CDT (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:48PMMoonset 1:58PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 333 Am Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Today..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 2ft. Mostly clear.
Saturday..E wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Saturday night..SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Clear.
LMZ521 Expires:201908231615;;074281 FZUS53 KGRB 230833 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 333 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-541>543-231615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 230903
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
503 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 409 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
much of upper michigan saw cloud-free conditions during the
overnight hours, allowing temperatures to tank into the upper 30s
and low to mid 40s early this morning. Temperatures are expected to
further cool a few more degrees until sunrise, so maintain mentions
of frost across the interior west, and continued the inherited sps
to highlight the potential through early this morning. Near the
great lakes, land-breezes and maritime influences helped keep
temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Nighttime microphysics satellite
data does show some hints of patchy fog inland from the great lakes
as well.

Today, high pressure centered just north of lake superior will
gradually drop south through this afternoon. Mid-level clouds
southeast east of surface ridging have already started to work
southeast over the tip of the keweenaw and northeast parts of upper
michigan. This cloud cover is expected to continue its southeastward
progression throughout the day, with additional widespread diurnally
driven cloud development as cold air aloft lingers over the area.

There is a slight chance again for a few light rain showers,
especially across the north central this morning, and then out east
this afternoon.

Temperatures will be trick today. Onshore flow along the lake
superior shoreline will become reinforced this afternoon with an
enhanced pressure gradient coming onshore with high pressure moving
over lake superior. Lingering cold air advection aloft will also
impact the east half of upper michigan during peak diurnal heating.

Therefore, expect the north central and east parts of upper michigan
near lake superior to be the cool spots today, with low to mid 60s.

Across the south central and east near lake michigan, downsloping
northerly winds will aid in boosting temperatures into the upper 60s
to perhaps around 70 degrees. Out west, warm air advection will
start to move in, which should help keep cloud cover more scattered
and aid in afternoon highs climbing to near 70. As for winds today,
the above mentioned enhanced pressure gradient this afternoon will
allow for a window of breezy northeast to north winds across the
central and east, respectively. Vertical shear profiles do not show
much in the way of momentum to tap into with diurnal heating mixing,
so think wind gust will be more on the sporadic side opposed to
frequent.

Tonight high pressure will continue to exit lake superior and move
eastward into ontario. This will push any lingering mid-level
moisture east of the region and allow for diurnal clouds to dissipate
after sunset. This surface pattern will favor easterly, downsloping
wind across eastern upper michigan, light and variable winds across
the central, and southerly winds out west. Winds remaining light,
skies clearing, and a strong subsidence inversion remaining in place
we make for another cold night inland from the great lakes. The
coldest spots look to be across the interior west, central, and far
eastern upper michigan, where pre-dawn temperatures will range from
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Not out of the question that we
could see more patchy frost, especially closer to the surface ridge
axis. With overnight lows expected to drop below the crossover
temperature in spots, it is not out of the question that we could
see patchy fog develop across the interior.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 502 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
models suggest that a progressive pattern will prevail from this
weekend into next week. Mid upper level ridging shifting eastward
through the great lakes this weekend will give way to a trough
moving into northern ontario and the northern great lakes from
Monday night into Wednesday.

Saturday into Sunday, as surface high pressure builds from the
central great lakes to northern new england, increasing southerly
flow will push high temps into the lower to mid 70s Saturday and to
the mid and upper 70s Sunday. Mostly clear skies will prevail with
dry conditions as dewpoints in the upper 40s Saturday only climb
into the low 50s Sunday.

Monday into Monday night, the models have continued the trend of a
slightly slower arrival of shra tsra chances. There is uncertainty
with arrival of the timing of any heavier pcpn as the GFS gem are
more aggressive in bringing pcpn associated with a shrtwv moving out
of the central plains toward upper michigan Monday compared to the
ecmwf and many GEFS members. Otherwise, the stronger 700-300 qvector
conv with the trough the becomes somewhat negatively tilted moves in
Monday night. With pwat values climbing at or above 1.5 inches, the
potential remains for more widespread moderate to heavy rain even
with only marginal forecast instability.

Tue-thu, breezy west winds are expected as the seasonably deep sfc
low slowly wobbles northward from northern ontario to hudson bay.

After the dry slot moves through tue, shower chances will return
from Tue night into Wed as mid level moisture increases and trailing
shrtwvs slide through the region. Some lake effect rain will also be
possibly into the west and north as 850 mb temps drop to around 4c.

However, any precipitation amounts will be light. Expect drier
conditions by Thu as the cooler air and mid level trough lifts to
the northeast

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 119 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
some patchy fog is expected at kiwd overnight and possibly at ksaw
as well with occasional MVFR conditions. Diurnal cloud development
will return tomorrow morning at ksaw under conditions similar to
Thursday, but shallow cloud depth should prohibit any showers. At
this time, it appears ceiling heights would remainVFR but could
briefly approach MVFR thresholds.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 409 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
northerly winds generally less than 15 knots are expected today as
high pressure sinks south across the lake. Locally higher winds, up
to 20 knots are expected to funnel into whitefish bay and the duluth
harbor later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high pressure
will keep winds to speeds below 15 knots through Saturday. Saturday
night, high pressure continues to move east of the region and
southerly flow starts to increase to between 15 to 20 knots. Sunday
through Monday, the surface pressure gradient between the departing
high and an advance cold front from the west will keep southerly
flow between 15 and 25 knots over the lake. As the front starts to
push east across the lake late Monday into Tuesday, across far
eastern parts of the lake southerly flow may increase to 30 knots.

As the front clears the lake Tuesday, the main area of low pressure
will remain north of the lake keeping an enhanced pressure gradient
across the lake through at least Wednesday. West-southwest to
westerly winds between 20 and 30 knots will persist during this time
period.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Ritzman
long term... Jlb
aviation... Voss
marine... Ritzman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi73 min N 4.1 G 6 61°F 1022.7 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi53 min N 9.9 G 12 56°F 70°F1023 hPa (+1.2)
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi73 min N 2.9 G 6 55°F 1022.7 hPa
45014 48 mi53 min N 12 G 14 66°F 69°F1023 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi4 hrsNW 39.00 miFair47°F45°F93%1022.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESC

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W3NW45NE7NW84N9
G15
N656N7N9N3N3NW4NW4NW4CalmNW4NW3NW5NW6NW5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW4W7W10NW10
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2 days agoNW3CalmSW4W5SW7S11SW11W5S8SW9S10S8S7S6SW4W3NW4NW5NW6N7N5N6N4W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.