Monday, December9, 2019
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:13PM Monday December 9, 2019 9:08 AM CST (15:08 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 5:17AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 353 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..NE wind 10 to 15 kts backing N 15 to 25 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle in the morning, then light snow possibly mixed with rain and freezing rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of light snow in the evening.
Tuesday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy.
Tuesday night..W wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ521 Expires:201912091715;;082229 FZUS53 KGRB 090953 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 353 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-091715-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMQT 091152 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 652 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 505 AM EST MON DEC 9 2019

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from Hudson Bay into the Dakotas. 700-300 mb qvector conv and a baroclinic leaf IR satellite signature was noted ahead of a shrtwv through the central Dakotas that supported an expanding area of snow from northern and central MN into nw WI and western Lake Superior. Areas of fzdz persisted overnight supported by low level (280k) isentropic lift. As deeper moisture moves into northern Upper Michigan, the fzdz has become mixed more with snow at times. Untreated roads across the area will remain slippery this morning.

Today, models suggest that an impressive band of 800-600 mb fgen will develop and spread through mainly the western portions of Upper Michigan that will support moderate to heavy snow. As winds back from ne to north and 850 mb temps drop from -10C to -17C, additional lake enhancement will also boost snow totals. Since overall amounts through this evening could approach 8 inches today from near IWD to Bergland and White Pine, the advisory was upgraded to a warning. Farther east, the snow should mainly increase during the afternoon with snowfall amounts should still remain in the advisory range from the Keweenaw through north central Upper Michigan. Expect amounts through this evening from 4 to 7 inches with SLR values in the 15/1 to 20/1 range. Over the south and east, fzdz will linger through much of the morning before the deeper moisture and snow arrives. Even though snow amounts from IMT to ESC and ISQ should only amount to 1 to 3 inches, the advisory remains in effect for the impacts of the mixed precipitation.

Tonight, expect a transition to pure LES overnight as the deeper moisture and large scale lift exit the region. Cyclonic low level flow this evening with 850 mb temps in the -14C to -18C range will favor moderate to briefly heavy LES or lake enhanced snow for north wind favored areas this evening. SLR values should exceed 20/1 as a greater portion of the DGZ will be in the convective layer. Winds will then back to nw overnight with additional CAA dropping 850 mb temps to -20C. An influx of drier air with lowering inversion heights will limit snowfall amounts.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 329 AM EST MON DEC 9 2019

Flow becomes highly amplified through the first half of the week as troughing becomes established across the central and eastern parts of the CONUS, ushering in brief shot of bitter cold, arctic air as the main trough continues to push eastward through mid-week. This cold snap doesn't appear to be long-lived, with temperatures gradually warming towards the end of the week as return flow develops ahead of a developing low-pressure system. Plenty of winter weather will accompany this cold air outbreak, along with the chance for a few shots of widespread snow later in the week/weekend.

Tuesday through Wednesday night - The main forecast concerns are lake-effect snow showers that will move in and out of the northwest to west wind snow belts and the Arctic air mass that will track across the region. During this time period, an anomalously strong (2- 4+ SDs) area of high pressure will accompany the arctic air mass as it drops south across the Upper-Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes, with 850mb temperatures falling into the -20 to -25C degree range at times. Tuesday, we're looking at highs in the single digits across the interior west and teens elsewhere. However, a secondary shortwave arriving on Wednesday will usher in the coldest air during this outbreak, pushing daytime highs down into the single digits across much of the area. Locations that see more lake-effect clouds across the Keweenaw and out east may not feel the full brunt of the single digits. As for overnight lows during this time period, cloud- free areas will likely see temperatures drop of very quickly into the -10 to -15 degree range, especially across the interior west and central. Again, areas over the Keweenaw Peninsula and out east will be slightly warmer, with lows near zero. If those temperatures weren't cold enough, the colder air working across the region will bring breezy conditions at times, meaning it will feel much colder. Still some details to work out and fine-tune in regards to wind and potential impacts on temperatures from lake-effect clouds in some spots, but it does appear that wind chills may reach the -15 to -30F range Wednesday morning. The -30F wind chills do not appear to be widespread at the moment, but certainly looks like much of the interior west and central will see wind chills in the -20 to -25F range Wednesday morning. Wednesday wind chills will improve somewhat during the day, but due to breezy winds look to remain below zero.

Another result of of the bitter cold will be the arrival of moderate to at times heavy lake-effect snow Tuesday through Wednesday night. With a couple shortwaves moving across the region during this time period, especially the stronger wave arriving on Wednesday, the lake- effect snow showers will meander between the northwest to west wind snow belts. Particularly, locations around/north of the Porkies and around/east of Munising look to see the best chance for long periods of persistent snow showers. As for snowfall amounts during this time period, it's difficult to say given the complex nature of the lift going in and out of the DGZ and varying inversion heights. Wouldn't be surprised if a few locations pick up around a foot when all is said and done, with higher confidence in locations that see the persistent, heavier snow showers. The complicating factor with cold air outbreaks like this is that when we start to see 850mb temperatures approach the -20 to -25C+ thresholds, the DGZ thins and a lot of the lift is focused above that DGZ sweet spot for efficient snow production. So, we tend to see small dendrites and lower SLRs as a result. Looking at the current data and forecast soundings, locations out east look to see the best chance at seeing heavy lake- effect snow, as the colder air is arrives a bit later on and allows for more focus lift through the DGZ Tuesday/Tuesday night. Now, for areas that may not get into the heavier lake-effect snow this doesn't mean there won't be impacts. The smaller snowflakes will likely cause sharply reduced visibilities, along with blowing snow as well.

Thursday through Friday - The lake-effect snow shuts down as return flow develops ahead of an approaching wave from the west on Thursday, and then another stronger waves digging out of the Rockies Friday into Saturday. These separate waves will bring chances for additional widespread snow. Did not make any adjustments to NBM PoPs that far out given the model uncertainty in the overall strengthen of these waves. The return flow will put us back into a warming trend though, with day time highs warming back up into the teens/20s on Thursday, and then 30s by Friday.

Upcoming Weekend - The stronger wave progged to move across the area into Saturday looks to continue it's track into Ontario. Models aren't in great agreement with this wave, with the GFS being the strongest and showing the potential for some heavier snow wrapping back around the surface low. Still too much uncertainty that far out, especially given the ECMWF and Canadian are far less impressive. However, behind this wave another shot of colder air will drop south in its wake towards the second half of the weekend. This air mass doesn't appear to be as strong with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -10 to -15C, but should still allow for lake- effect snow to develop across parts of the Lake Superior snowbelts.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 650 AM EST MON DEC 9 2019

Lingering fzdz mixed with snow is expected at KSAW through mid morning before the precipitation changes over to all snow. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will spread into the west this morning and into KSAW this afternoon that will result in IFR conditions with the potential for periods of LIFR vsby. After the widepsread snow moves out this evening, lake effect snow showers will continue overnight with mainly MVFR conditions and some ocnl IFR vsby with any heavier bands.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 329 AM EST MON DEC 9 2019

Northeast winds between 20 and 30 knots, with the strongest winds expected to funnel down the western arm of the lake into the Duluth area will linger through the morning hours today. By mid-day, winds remain 20 to 30 knots, but become northerly as a low pressure system tracks lifts northeast across lower Michigan. As this low tracks over Lake Huron tonight, Arctic air will begin to spill across the lake with north to northwest winds between 20 and 30 knots and a few gale gusts to 35 knots. The beginning of this colder air mass will allow moderate freezing spray to develop and linger today/tonight.

Expect this colder, more unstable airmass to linger across the lake through mid-week. Tuesday through Wednesday, winds will meander back and forth between west and northwesterly, between 20 and 30 knots. A few gale force gusts to 35 knots are possible, especially Tuesday night through Wednesday as cold air advection strengthens across the Upper Great Lakes. As the colder air streaming across the region strengthens Tuesday through Wednesday, moderate freezing spray will linger, becoming heavy Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Winds diminish by Thursday morning to speeds generally between 15 and 25 knots, and linger through Friday backing southerly as high pressure moves over the area. Warmer air moves back into the region as well, shutting down any freezing spray threats.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ001- 003>006-084.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for MIZ002-009.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for MIZ010>013.

Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . JLB LONG TERM . Ritzman AVIATION . JLB MARINE . Ritzman


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi28 min NW 19 G 22 34°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi62 min N 17 G 20 33°F 36°F1001.3 hPa32°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi28 min N 6 G 11 31°F 1001.4 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last
24hr
S11
G16
S10
G14
S7
G11
S7
G10
SW6
S5
S3
S1
S2
S3
S1
S4
NE13
G16
NE14
NE16
NE16
NE18
NE18
NE20
NE19
NE19
NE18
N17
G21
N17
1 day
ago
S8
N8
S8
G11
S11
S15
G20
S13
G17
S11
G18
S12
G15
S12
G18
S12
G16
S14
G22
S15
G21
S13
G20
S13
G21
S14
G18
S11
G16
S13
G16
S15
S15
G22
S18
G29
S20
G28
S16
G24
S15
S14
G21
2 days
ago
NW13
G16
NW12
G16
NW12
G17
NW16
W10
G15
NW11
G14
NW9
G12
NW6
NW3
SW2
SW2
S3
SW3
SW3
SW4
SW4
W4
G7
SW5
SW4
SW4
SW6
SW5
SW3
SE2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi72 minNNE 71.75 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist30°F28°F96%1003.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESC

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last 24hrSW6SW8SW7SW4SW5W3--W3--N3N8NE7N7N5NE6N5N64N6NE6NE76N7NE8
1 day agoSW5S5--S7S8S10
G15
S12
G17
SW9SW12
G19
S12
G18
S16
G22
S15
G23
S13
G25
SW14
G24
--SW17
G24
SW14SW12SW15
G23
SW17
G22
SW15
G21
SW10SW7SW8
2 days agoNW10
G16
NW12
G17
NW10
G16
N4--NW4N3CalmCalm--CalmCalmNW3W3Calm--CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (10,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.