Wednesday, April1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:21PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 2:28 AM CDT (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 2:40AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 838 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 31 2020
Rest of tonight..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of sprinkles in the evening. A chance of flurries. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wednesday..NE wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy.
Wednesday night..NE wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy.
Thursday..E wind around 5 kts veering se in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly Sunny.
LMZ521 Expires:202004011015;;382140 FZUS53 KGRB 010138 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 838 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-011015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 010539 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 139 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2020

Water vapor satellite shows the upper-level split flow pattern well this afternoon with an active northern and southern stream and the U.P. more or less between them. Ridging persists over the area this afternoon and will continue through tonight and tomorrow. With the surface ridge axis bisecting the U.P. north-south, light NNE flow continues over the eastern U.P. and then curves anticyclonically around the ridge and becomes ESE (but very light) over the western U.P. Feels like a broken record, or perhaps the boy who cried wolf, but this NNE flow upslope into Marquette County could produce some light -FZDZ so have again included that in the forecast. It hasn't worked out well recently but model soundings tonight show deeper saturation (up to 5 kft or more) than any of the previous days. Regardless of any precip, most if not all of the area will be socked in with low clouds and perhaps some fog or freezing fog in the upslope areas of Marquette County as well. Elsewhere, CAMs have latched on to a band of steadier drizzle and/or snow showers that will pivot in from the east tonight before dissipating over the central U.P., possibly in connection with a small pocket of low to mid-level Q vector convergence pivoting around a closed upper low over the Northeast. So threw in chance POPs over the east, mainly in the 04-10z time frame. Even the models that do produce these showers still only show saturation flirting with -8 to -10 C. Therefore have forced the grids to have 50/50 snow showers/drizzle (or FZDZ if below freezing) in the chance POP areas and all drizzle in the slight chance POP areas. Not expecting much of an impact from these showers but the combination of -FZDZ and freezing fog could make for slick surfaces in a few spots central and east. Any remaining drizzle or fog will clear out Wednesday morning but the clouds remain, keeping highs cooler than they otherwise would be - mostly in the mid 40s and possibly still in the upper 30s along the Lake Superior shoreline and over the higher terrain.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 430 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2020

For Upper MI, pattern this week will be slower to evolve. A positive height anomaly centered along the n coast of AK will shift e and merge with a strong positive height anomaly retrograding from the N Atlantic. This merger will set up a strong anomaly with 500mb heights around 400m above normal centered just n of Hudson Bay Thu/Fri. Meanwhile, ridging developing downstream of a broad mid- level low settling into sw Canada will strengthen over the Great Lakes and connect with the positive height anomaly to the n. Shortwaves rotating around the mid-level low will swing e then n up the backside of the ridge. Whether any of these waves shift far enough e to bring pcpn into Upper MI will be one fcst concern early on during the long term portion of the fcst. Late in the week, medium range models are in agreement, with some minor timing differences, that a stronger wave swinging around the mid-level low will cut thru the ridge, pushing a cold front across the area and bringing the only potential of widespread pcpn for the remainder of this week. Heading into early next week, broad ridging will develop across the e half of the Lower 48 downstream of western N America troffing. Shortwaves ejecting from this trof will bring some additional opportunities of pcpn during the first half of next week. As for temps, with the pattern not supporting any southward transport of late season cold air, expect readings to be around normal to above normal over the next 7 days. High temps will mostly be in the 40s and 50s. Some locations may top 60F on a day or two over the next 7 days.

Beginning Wed night, vigorous shortwave will be lifting from ND thru Manitoba. In association with this wave, the GFS/NAM show an eastward extension of waa/isentropic ascent/theta-e advection and a northward moving trof, resulting in pcpn reaching far western Upper MI during the night. ECMWF/GEM/UKMET are all less aggressive with the eastward push of pcpn due to the shortwave and sharpening mid- level ridge axis shifted slightly w compared to GFS/NAM. Often when the ECMWF/GEM/UKMET agree in showing something different than the GFS/NAM, their solution usually outperforms the GFS/NAM. Will thus favor a dry fcst for Wed night.

With the ECWMF/GEM/UKMET continuing to be westward with the mid- level ridge axis thru Thu, will continue to favor a drier fcst compared to the NAM and particularly the GFS which is more aggressive with shortwaves lifting nne up the backside of the ridge into northern Ontario. Included schc pops only over the far w (western Gogebic/Ontonagon counties) on Thu.

Mid-level ridge drifts e slightly Thu night, perhaps far enough eastward for the chc of -ra to expand across more of western Upper MI. A strong shortwave trof will then swing e across the northern Plains on Fri and the Upper Lakes and northern Ontario on Sat as it begins to weaken. Dynamics/rather sharp convergence along associated cold front will bring a period of -ra as it crosses the fcst area late Fri into early Sat. Current fcst has mention of -ra longer than it will actually rain due to some timing uncertainties. In reality, probably won't see -ra last any longer than 9-12hrs at any location. As the cold front passes, column may cool off quick enough for the rain to mix with snow in a few areas before ending late Fri night/Sat morning. More likely scenario is rain ends before it cools off enough to mix with snow. Right now, it appears rainfall amounts should be mostly under one-third of an inch which won't aggravate ongoing snowmelt runoff.

High pres will then build into the area on Sat and drift eastward on Sun, providing dry weather. Should be a couple of opportunities of rain early next week as shortwaves lift out of the western trof and around developing central to eastern U.S. ridge.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 138 AM EDT WED APR 1 2020

Expect IFR and possibly LIFR cigs overnight with low-level moisture remaining trapped and winds becoming or remaining light. The lowest cigs are expected at SAW where an upslope wind off of Lake Superior will prevail. There Could be some BR and dz/fzdz as temps look to stay very close to freezing.

Elsewhere, MVFR cigs at CMX may drop to near IFR late tonight into Wed morning while mainly MVFR condition prevail at IWD.

MARINE. (For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 319 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2020

20-25 kt ENE winds are expected on the western half of the lake for a brief period Wednesday afternoon but other than that winds are expected to stay 20 kts or less across the lake through the weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . RJC LONG TERM . Rolfson AVIATION . JLB MARINE . RJC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi48 min NW 7 G 8.9 33°F 1019 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi58 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 34°F 38°F1018.8 hPa30°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi48 min N 4.1 G 6 33°F 1019 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi32 minNNW 310.00 miLight Rain33°F28°F85%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESC

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N6N5N7N7N7N6N5N55NE6NE76N7NE8NE7--4N54NW3N3CalmN3
1 day agoN8NW12
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2 days agoNE10NE7E8NE7E6E8E8CalmS6S4NW6E5W6NW6NW6NW9NW10NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.