Stephenson, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stephenson, MI

April 16, 2024 3:00 PM CDT (20:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM
Moonrise 12:11 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 259 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 16 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm cdt this evening - .

.gale warning in effect from 6 pm cdt this evening through Wednesday morning - .

This afternoon - NE wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 35 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft late.

Tonight - E wind 15 to 25 kts with a few gusts to around 35 kts. Rain showers in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

Wednesday - SE wind 10 to 20 kts veering S 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 kts. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.

Wednesday night - W wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 161801 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 201 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions today as warm, dry, and windy conditions overspread much of the UP, with the driest and windiest area being along the MI/WI state line.
- A low pressure tracks through the Upper Great Lakes during the midweek, causing widespread rain showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Gusty east winds could reach up to advisory criteria (45 mph) over the Keweenaw and eastern counties of the U.P.
- Chances of precipitation remain possible (~15-40%) into late week, though uncertainty exists on timing and intensity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A deep 990mb surface low continues to spin over northeast NE this afternoon, with a tight pressure gradient developing across Midwest/upper Great Lakes ahead of it as a 1028mb Hudson High remains sprawled out over Ontario. This is resulting in strengthening southerly flow across the Midwest (see the RAP analysis for an 850mb LLJ at 55+ kts!) and robust warm air advection into the region. This in turn will bring rain into the area by the evening, but the rain shield so far remains off to our southwest across southeast MN.

High clouds continue to stream into the UP ahead of the approaching system , but this seems to be having a pretty limited impact on temperatures so far. Most of the area is reaching well into the 50s, though across the Keweenaw and nearer to the shorelines of the Great Lakes (mainly where easterly flow is onshore), temperatures may only peak in the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon. Our well-mixed, dry environment also seems to be winning out over cloud cover in terms of dewpoints this afternoon; dewpoints are plummeting into the teens and lower 20s across most of the UP away from the lakeshores.
Winds are on the increase across the UP this afternoon, already gusting up to 20-30mph across the western half of the UP. As we head into the late afternoon and evening, ensemble guidance shows around a 60-80% chance for some spots throughout the western UP to gust higher to 35mph - highest chances across the Keweenaw, where there are also high probabilities (80%+) for gusts to 40mph. Winds can be overdone at times in the hi-res guidance, but will still be comfortable sticking with these advisory-level gusts given the look of soundings tapping into those higher winds aloft. With elevated fire weather conditions, particularly along the MI/WI state line, don't burn!

Otherwise, rain still looks to hold off until closer to 00Z, but a few showers may begin to approach the MI/WI border and western Lake Superior before sunset.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 501 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Beginning tonight, mainly after sunset, categorical PoPs for rain will spread w-e across the cwa supported by increasing upper diffluence and deep layer q-vector convergence ahead of the approaching Plains low and the categorical PoPs will continue into Wednesday as the low moves into Wisconsin.
Confidence is high in some spots getting a decent soaking of rain with this system as a stream of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico with PWATs in excess of an inch surge into the Upper Great Lakes. These PWAT values are above the 90th percentile of Green Bay's climatology and should support storm total QPF ranging from 0.5" to 2". This soaking rainfall should help alleviate fire weather concerns moving through the rest of the week. Another thing the PWATs and mid-level RH plots highlight is a dry slot following the initial round of showers lifting north. CAMs indicate that this would result in a brief break in the steady showers over the western UP late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and in the east late Wed morning into early Wed afternoon, before the second wave of showers moves in later Wed afternoon and evening. Elevated CAPE of up to 500 j/kg could support isolated thunderstorms south central and southeast on Wednesday.

Strong easterly winds and gusts will also be a concern later tonight into Wednesday as the pressure gradient increases and a 60+ kt low level jet translates east across the area. EPS probability guidance indicates a 80-100% probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph later tonight into Wed afternoon across the Keweenaw and the eastern counties of Alger, Schoolcraft and Luce counties. Given that fcst soundings also support the higher wind gusts with a good chance of 45 mph gusts possible at times, decided to issue a Wind Advisory across Northern Houghton-Keweenaw and also Alger, Luce and Schoolcraft counties from 06Z-21Z Wed. Widespread gusts across the rest of the CWA are forecast between the 25 to 35 mph range during this period.

After the weakening southern stream shortwave and associated sfc low lifts northeast through Upper MI Wed night with showers ending from west to east late Wed night, attention turns upstream to a northern stream trough/closed low and associated sfc low over southern Saskatchewan. This northern stream trough and associated closed low will move east and phase with the remnants of the southern stream shortwave on Thu after it moves northeast of the Upper Great Lakes.
The resulting sfc low north of the Upper Great Lakes in northern Ontario will send a cold front across Upper Mi on Thursday but available moisture is somewhat limited at this point with the highest PWAT values ~.5 inch, highest east. Only isolated to scattered light rain showers are expected Thu into Thu night with the highest coverage over the eastern third of the cwa. Rain is the expected p-type. However, as the closed low lifts east-northeast through Ontario on Friday and then into northern Quebec on Saturday, the mid-level trough will move across the Upper Great Lakes Friday into early Saturday. This trough along with increasing CAA at 850 mb will lead to another round of isolated to scattered showers which will probably be enhanced by diurnal instability during the day on Friday. The CAA will also allow snow showers to mix in the rain Friday into Saturday.

Additional northern stream shortwaves in a northwest flow aloft will move over the Upper Great Lakes into early next week, with maybe isolated showers at times, but it looks like dry weather will mostly win out into Tuesday as sfc high pressure prevails through much of the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR prevails at all TAF sites through this evening with just some high clouds streaming through the area. Tonight, an advancing low pressure out of the Plains will cause widespread -SHRA. Ceilings lower to MVFR at all terminals, and MVFR or IFR visibility will be possible at times in light to moderate SHRA (40-60%). Ceilings lower further to IFR into tomorrow morning, most likely at CMX and SAW (80+%) compared to IWD (60%). After a brief break in rain showers during the morning, another round of rain moves in for the afternoon with MVFR to IFR visibility. As the low approaches tonight, E and ESE winds will be gusty, with IWD seeing gusts up to 35 kt and CMX seeing gusts up to 45 kt. An advancing low level jet will create a LLWS threat at all sites tonight, ending during the morning.

MARINE
Issued at 501 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

High pressure extending southeast over the Great Lakes will keep winds below 20 kts through much of this morning. As low pressure begins to move out of the Central Plains today, winds quickly increase to northeasterly gales to 40 kt in western Lake Superior this afternoon. Easterly gales overspread the lake tonight into Wednesday as the low passes through the Upper Great Lakes. Strongest gales are expected over the north central and east half of the lake up to 40-45 knots on Wednesday. Probabilities of storm force winds remain low at this time, with probabilities of winds exceeding 47 kts staying below 20%. Winds fall below gales in the immediate wake of the low late in the day Wednesday, though the enhanced pressure gradient will keep westerly winds of 20-30 kt in the forecast into the weekend. During the northeasterly gales late Tuesday, waves of 10-13 feet are possible with 8-12 feet waves on Wednesday across the whole lake, locally up to 17 feet between Isle Royale and the tip of the Keweenaw Peninsula. Waves fall below 6 feet early Thursday but remain at 2-5 feet until late Saturday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ001-003- 006-007-014-085.

Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ243>246-250-264>266.

Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ162.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ240-241.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ242>246.

Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ242-263.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ247>249.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221- 250.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221-250.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ248.

Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ248.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi20 min N 11G17 46°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi60 min NE 15G19 30.12
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi42 min NNE 18G20 42°F 48°F30.0338°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi20 min ENE 13G20 50°F


Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KESC25 sm64 minE 1110 smClear54°F28°F38%30.13
Link to 5 minute data for KESC


Wind History from ESC
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Marquette, MI,



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