Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tillamook, OR

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 4:32PM Monday December 16, 2019 4:57 AM PST (12:57 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 11:35AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 252 Am Pst Mon Dec 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
Today..SE wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, then easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves se 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of rain.
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 15 seconds.
Tue..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves se 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves se 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 16 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 7 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 15 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 6 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 6 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 14 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 7 ft at 10 seconds. Rain.
Thu..S wind 25 to 30 kt. Combined seas 17 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 13 ft.
PZZ200 252 Am Pst Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will persist over the pac nw through Monday, then shift east of the cascades Tuesday. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across mainly the outer waters tonight and Monday. Offshore flow will increase Monday night and Tuesday, turning more southerly midweek as a potent frontal system approaches the pac nw coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tillamook, OR
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location: 45.46, -123.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 161137 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 248 AM PST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. Fairly benign weather the next couple of days will likely give way to a multi-day stretch of notably wet and active weather mid to late week. High winds will be possible along the coast Thursday and river flooding is possible late Thursday through Saturday.

SHORT TERM. Today through Thursday . Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning reveals a shortwave trough exiting the Rocky Mountain states while a shortwave ridge over the eastern Pacific is pushing eastward into the Pacific Northwest. Isentropic lift near the 285-290K surfaces in advance of this shortwave ridge is leading to plenty of clouds and light precipitation pushing onto our northern coastal zones this morning. There are mixed signals among the models if this will hold together enough to bring measurable precipitation to the Willamette Valley this morning, but did at least expand the mention of slight chance PoPs and it seems at least some sprinkles from about Salem northward appear increasingly likely this morning per radar trends. Our low sun angle, weak winds near the surface and some patchy fog and low clouds scattered around the region this morning will once again only allow temperatures to only rise into the low to mid 40s this afternoon across the lower elevations inland.

As the aforementioned shortwave ridge shifts east of the Cascades and the next shortwave trough approaches the region tonight and Tuesday, expect easterly pressure gradients to increase across the region. At this point models suggest pressure gradients will peak somewhere in the 5-7mb range across the Cascades, but given the subsidence inversion will be weakening Tuesday into Tuesday night, the duration of the strongest winds should be fairly limited and not expecting too many impacts.

Given the splitting nature of the aforementioned incoming trough, models are in good agreement the first round of precipitation arriving either Tuesday night or Wednesday will be light. However, there are still quite a bit variations in the timing of when precipitation will arrive per the ensembles so only have slight chance to chance PoPs initially Tuesday night into early Wednesday before increasing them later Wednesday as a stronger trailing front pushes into the region. Given cold air east of the Cascades is rather limited, not expecting too many winter precipitation type issues with the first round of precipitation, but some light snow could fall down to the valley floor in the central Columbia River Gorge and/or upper Hood River valley Wednesday.

It should be noted this second stronger front arriving later Wednesday will be the result of a large and broad shortwave trough settling into the Gulf of Alaska early to midweek. An embedded shortwave trough currently exiting Siberia will race across the northwest Pacific before digging down the backside of this large broad shortwave trough midweek. This will cause the trough to sharpen and dig southward across the east-central Pacific and allow it to tap into tropical moisture that will stream northeastward along a baroclinic zone towards the Pacific Northwest. Models still differ when the first real substantial slug of moisture associated with a warm front will arrive. At this point, timing ranges from Wednesday night to late Thursday. Given snow levels are notoriously slow to come up in such patterns will need to watch temperatures in the central Gorge and upper Hood River valley during this timeframe. Regardless, this will likely be a big snow producer for the Cascades between Mt Hood and Mt Adams before snow levels rise during the second half of Thursday.

There continue to be hints of a weak surface low pressure developing and moving northeastward towards Washington around this timeframe as well. This would likely tighten the pressure gradients enough across our CWA to result in high winds along our coast Thursday. We bumped up wind speeds along the coast a bit, but still kept them shy of high wind criteria for now given the uncertainty, but the pattern continues to seem conducive for cyclogenesis and some limited wind impacts along our coast.

It should be noted that given the relatively dry start to December, and very dry November the initial round of rain Wednesday night into Thursday should cause few problems, but this appears likely to change as we move into the long term portion of the forecast. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Thursday night through Monday . Models and their ensembles are in general agreement that a shortwave trough swinging eastward and digging southward across the eastern Pacific will result in an atmospheric river stalling or at the very least wavering back and forth across the Pacific Northwest Thursday night into at least early Saturday. Ensemble data suggests this atmospheric river will be moderate (IVT values >500 kg/ms) to strong (IVT values >750 kg/ms) in strength Thursday night into Friday. While not all of the GEFS and ECS members support high rainfall totals in our CWA, more and more members suggest an extended period of moderate to at times heavy rain will fall across portions of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington late in the week and early next weekend. However, there still remains a considerable amount of uncertainty where the axis of heaviest rain will end up exactly. As a result, a blend of model precipitation forecasts was used for now, but this methodology generally broad brushes the area with moderate QPF, but dampens out the axis of heaviest QPF. As a result, current river forecasts suggest little to no flooding, but expect this to change each day this week as models (and us) are better able to determine which drainages will experience the highest rainfall rates and the most prolonged period of heavier rain. Given the GEFS and ECS QPF output has trended upward with each run over the past 36 hours for places like Portland, confidence is growing that 2-4" of rain will fall between Wednesday night and Saturday for at least portions of the Willamette and lower Columbia River valleys.

Our very dry November and relatively dry start to December will give us quite a bit of breathing room from flooding perspective, particularly on our big rivers like the Willamette. Nonetheless, the potential for the heavy rain to fall over an area for extended period of time (>12-24 hours) brings concern, particularly for our more flood prone rivers. It should be noted that the strong southwesterly flow in this event will allow heavy precipitation to bleed over the crest of the Coast Range and will likely result in some of our rivers draining east out of the Coast Range to see significant rises, at least more so than when our flow is more due westerly.

From a snow perspective, expect snow levels to rise into at least the 5000-6000 ft range Thursday night into Friday and may very well rise into the 6000-7000 ft range for an extended period.

Expect precipitation to turn more showery and snow levels to lower below the Cascade passes late Saturday and Sunday as the main upper level trough spreads eastward over the area. Given the digging nature of the shortwave trough as it hits the West Coast of the US and the best mid level dynamics and lift appear likely to remain well south of the region, low level westerly flow will likely be weak across our CWA during this period. As a result, this will likely limit snow totals across our Cascades next weekend despite the colder temperatures and modest instability spreading across the area. /Neuman

AVIATION. Generally VFR conditions throughout the forecast area with some very patchy LIFR fog in the northern central Willamette Valley around KHIO, KUAO and KMMV. There are some MVFR cigs within the Willamette Valley but they look to be isolated to the same area as the fog mentioned previously. Higher level clouds are expected to remain over the area, and provide an insulating effect, which will keep fog at bay throughout the remaining areas. There is some precipitation moving into KSLE and areas north. This along with the higher level cloud deck will aid in keeping fog from forming. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s, which will keep frost from forming on most surfaces.

A front ahead of low pressure in the Pacific will approach the coast Monday afternoon. This front will bring showers to the north Oregon coast this morning through around 18Z Monday. The frontal advancement will cause a pressure gradient increase causing winds to turn offshore slightly. High stratus will remain through the remainder of the period.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR cigs will continue through Monday. Higher level clouds along with some early morning precipitation will aid in keeping fog as well as frost from forming. /42

MARINE. Winds within the outer waters remain above SCA conditions through Monday morning along with seas building 10 to 11 ft. Winds will briefly fall below the 25 kt threshold Monday afternoon, but seas are expected to be above 10 feet by that time. These small craft conditions are expected to persist through Monday evening. Our inner waters will also start to see seas build to 10 feet by Tuesday morning. All of these impacts are being caused by a strengthening high pressure inland which will keep the winds in the E-SE direction through Tuesday.

Uncertainty does remain in regards to an approaching frontal system on Wednesday. Current guidance is showing the potential for some localized Gale Force gusts and seas building to 13 to 16 feet from Wednesday through Friday, and could last into the weekend. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 8 mi64 min 49°F1026.5 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 52 mi64 min NW 4.1 G 8 41°F 45°F1025.8 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 54 mi58 min 49°F7 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR3 mi83 minN 010.00 miLight Drizzle41°F39°F93%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3NW4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Mon -- 04:55 AM PST     5.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:25 AM PST     2.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:34 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:41 PM PST     6.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:38 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.92.64.45.65.95.754.13.22.52.12.33.45.16.46.76.45.64.63.320.90.1

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon
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Garibaldi
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Mon -- 04:17 AM PST     7.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:37 AM PST     3.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:35 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:13 PM PST     8.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:38 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:18 PM PST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.245.66.77.37.26.45.44.53.83.84.45.66.97.88.287.15.53.61.90.5-0.2-0

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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