Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tillamook, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 9:04PM Sunday July 5, 2020 12:04 AM PDT (07:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:00PMMoonset 4:51AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 205 Pm Pdt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun..W wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 7 seconds.
Sun night..N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Mon..E wind 5 kt, backing to W in the afternoon. Wind waves E 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the W at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon night..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 7 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tue..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 3 ft.
Wed..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 3 ft.
Thu..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 3 ft.
PZZ200 205 Pm Pdt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak low pressure will continue offshore of vancouver island and washington coasts into early next week. High pressure continues off the south oregon and north california coast for the next few days. Expect generally benign wind conditions through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tillamook, OR
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location: 45.46, -123.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 050333 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 831 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections

SYNOPSIS. An upper level trough will linger across the Pacific Northwest for much of the next week. This will produce a continuation of morning clouds, afternoon sunshine, a few chances of light rain showers and near to below average temperatures.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday (EVENING UPDATE) . Water vapor satellite imagery this evening showed a broad longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. A dry slot could also be seen extending across southern and central Oregon. Several short-wave impulses were noted in the northwest flow aloft over the central and northeast Pacific. Visible satellite imagery showed diminishing cloud cover over SW Washington and far NW Oregon.

Between a weak surface low pressure off Vancouver Island slowly approaching the region and building 500mb heights overnight, Sunday morning cloud cover may be slightly less than the past couple of mornings. However, HREF guidance still suggests most of the lower elevations of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington should see clouds fill in. However, even the 12Z HREF guidance appears to show slightly less low cloud cover overall compared to the previous couple of nights. This seems reasonable given the surface high pressure ridge axis appears likely to once again setup near the Lane/Douglas County border. Nonetheless, Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the next week with high temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s. Weishaar

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM UNCHANGED: The next storm system to impact the region is currently over the Gulf of Alaska. Models are in good agreement it will drop southeastward and brush the region on Monday before forming a closed low near Vancouver, BC Monday night. This should increase morning cloud cover and result in high temperatures cooling at least a couple of degrees on Monday. In addition, there will be a slight increase in the depth of the moisture so the chances of morning light rain/drizzle should increase, particularly along the coast.

As the closed upper level low develops near Vancouver, BC Monday night, models and their ensembles seem to be trending towards sufficiently deep enough moisture and instability spreading southeastward across the rest of the region to bring more widespread chance for light rain showers late Monday night into Tuesday. Rain chances appear to be highest across southwest Washington where most locations should measure rain during this time while areas farther south towards Lane County will more than likely remain dry. Nonetheless, the increase in low level moisture and cooler 850mb temperatures will likely result in Tuesday being quite cool with high temperatures struggling to reach 70F for interior valleys. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Tuesday night through Saturday . Models are in decent agreement a longwave trough will persist across the Pacific Northwest during the second half of next week and into next weekend. It appears at least a couple weak shortwave troughs dropping southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska into the base of the main upper level trough will at least brush the region. This will maintain our recent weather of late where widespread morning clouds should gradually give way to afternoon sunshine each day with high temperatures topping out near to slightly below average for the date. Models and their ensembles indicate there is still a lot of uncertainty on the timing and strength of these passing shortwave troughs, though. The first appears likely to impact the area sometime between Wednesday and Thursday night while another one may skirt the region next weekend. Given the uncertainty in the timing and amplitude of the waves, continued to hold PoPs in the 10% to 40% range for much of the extended. /Neuman

AVIATION. Inland VFR to persist through the rest of the day as subsidence aloft increases and continues to clear out the valleys low lying clouds. Breezy northerly winds expected along the coast as well as the southern Willamette Valley and local foothills. Winds should weaken by 06Z Sun but remain out of the northwest. The dissipating low pressure Vancouver Island will start to shift toward the coast over night. This will increase the chance for early morning clouds between 11Z and 16Z. These clouds will most likely track along the foothills but have the potential to bring broken MVFR ceilings to valley sites.

Expect VFR skies through the evening in most locations with a broken deck potentially forming near 5000 ft around 12Z Fri. Favorable conditions for IFR ceilings and patchy fog along the coast after 05Z tonight into early Sun morning as upper level ridging builds.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . No concerns. VFR skies with northerly winds for the next 24 hours. There is a low possibility of broken MVFR ceilings late tonight however, if winds pick up slightly, it could create enough mixing to keep clouds at bay. -RM/BP

MARINE. A weak low off Vancouver Island will move inland tonight and surface high pressure off the south Oregon and north California coast will persist through early next week. Wind speeds 10 kt or lower will persist through at least the middle of next week.

Wave heights continue around 5 ft consisting of a northwest swell and a long period south swell. All model guidance show wave heights in the 3 to 5 ft range for the next several days. Models continue to show low-amplitude long-period south swell through early next week. Long period swell, such as the 16 to 18 second south swell this weekend, usually raises concern regarding sneaker waves. However, current guidance indicates rather low wave heights associated with the long-period swell mixed with a 2-3 ft shorter period west to northwest swell so sneaker wave threat is low. -RM/MH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 8 mi46 min 54°F1023.7 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 52 mi46 min NNW 8 G 8.9 58°F 64°F1023.1 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 54 mi38 min 58°F3 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR3 mi69 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F51°F94%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW6W7SW7W5NW8NW6NW7NW6NW4CalmSW3SE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmW3W4NW6NW3NW5W8NW8NW8NW5NW5NW4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSE4SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmW6SW4W7W6W5W6SW6NW6NW5W3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:25 AM PDT     7.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:00 AM PDT     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:22 PM PDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:42 PM PDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.97.27.26.75.74.32.81.30.1-0.7-1-0.41.134.65.45.34.843.12.31.81.72.6

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon
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Garibaldi
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:02 AM PDT     8.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:02 AM PDT     -2.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:46 PM PDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM PDT     2.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:00 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.98.47.96.64.72.40.2-1.4-2.1-1.6-0.21.63.4566.35.84.93.82.82.534.35.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.