Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rogers City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 4:52PM Thursday December 5, 2019 2:23 PM EST (19:23 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 12:52AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- 903 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots early. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable...then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Snow likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of snow in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the evening...then becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain early in the morning...then rain likely until early evening. A chance of rain in the late evening and early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow early in the morning. A chance of rain until afternoon. Snow likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ361 Expires:201912052115;;316297 FZUS63 KDTX 051403 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 903 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.30 inches, is moving across southeast across Ontario. High pressure of 30.00 will build into the area on Thursday. LHZ361-052115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rogers City, MI
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location: 45.5, -83.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 051728 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1228 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1227 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Large expanse of surface high pressure stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Gulf coast along with subtle mid level ridging sliding through the region. Subsidence, drier air and backing low level flow has pretty much brought an end to the lingering lake effect snow showers/flurries at this juncture, although there may be some light flurries/snow showers across parts of Presque Isle and Alpena counties. But overall quiet weather is anticipated this afternoon at this juncture.

Upstream, surface low pressure has migrated from the northern Plains into Minnesota ahead of short-wave/1.5 PV anomaly sliding out of southern Canada into the northern Plains. This system is expected to strengthen a bit this afternoon and slide through the northern lakes region tonight and likely bringing an inch or two of snow accumulation to much of the forecast area. Already seeing some return flow/warm advection forced mid level radar returns on regional radar plots nosing out of Wisconsin into Lower Michigan. But based on upstream OBS in Wisconsin, suspect most of that is simply virga . or perhaps a few flurries at best.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 206 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Impactful weather: Minor. Generally light snow accumulations late today into tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Nrn Michigan was between departing upper troughing, and incoming shallow ridging early this morning. At the sfc, a tight pressure gradient resulting in gusty NW winds, was exiting east, while weak sfc high pressure was pressing into the western Great Lakes. The low level NW flow was fairly unidirectional/slightly cyclonic, still tapping Lake Superior and producing lake effect snow, but we have lost all the synoptic moisture and weak forcing from a departed vorticity on the backside of the upper trough. Regardless, low level temperatures were cold enough to result in deep enough overlake instability and moisture flux, to result in continued light lake effect snow. Looking upstream, the next weak shortwave was pressing into Saskatchewan, with a weak area of low pressure/Alberta Clipper in ND.

Heading into this morning the incoming shallow mid level ridging and sfc high pressure, will result in subsidence/drying and lowering inversion heights, ultimately ending the current lake effect or at least bringing intensities down to something more akin to flurries. Skies will likely remain pretty much cloudy in the NW flow lake effect regimes, while there may be a period of clearing elsewhere. Then, low to mid level WAA and DPVA increase as the aforementioned upstream shortwave presses into the western Great Lakes, and skies thicken in cloudiness. Fast flow aloft and thermal profiles being cold, support a quick shot of synoptic snow, breaking out after sundown. 1000-850mb winds will be veering from WSW to NW over the course of the synoptic snowfall, limiting the amount the lakes can add to snowfall totals, but highest snowfall/best enhancement is likely to be in Charlevoix/Emmet/Cheboygan and Mackinac counties. After most of the synoptic snow departs overnight tonight, winds will have settled in out of the NW, and some nuisance light lake effect bands are likely to develop or be ongoing.

Total snowfall will largely be 1-2 inches, with locally around 3 inches in the counties with best enhancement potential. No headlines to be issued.

High temperatures will mostly be in the upper 20s to lower half of the 30s, with lows tonight in the upper teens to lower half of the 20s for most.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 206 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Quiet stretch continues; Light lake effect mainly Friday morning .

Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing exists over the Ontario-Quebec border persistent northwest flow in place over the lakes. A weak wave currently in southern Alberta will slide southeast through the main flow, and crosses the straits region early Friday morning. The associated clipper will be southeast of our area by Friday morning, with colder air flowing in behind it. This cooling air generates enough overlake instability to help maintain the snow showers that will likely already still be ongoing. However inversion heights between 5 and 7 kft through the morning will be fighting sinking and drying air in this CAA regime. Boundary layer winds in the upper teens may push bands inland to the higher terrain. Overall, a general lack of moisture/dynamics prevents snow totals from getting very high. A half inch or less across the typical NW-flow belts looks good.

Heading into the afternoon and evening surface high pressure starts to move in, squashing inversion heights and drying things out. This will give us a break in snow overnight into Saturday morning for nrn lower. Ern Upper may get clipped by a subtle wave passing through southern Ontario, which may aid the southwesterly lake effect potential. The surface high pushes southeast through the day, allowing a surge of moist and milder air to move north across us. This sets the stage ahead of another clipper system on Sunday.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

High Impact Weather: Minimal for now; monitoring a possible strong system late Monday into Tuesday

Profiles warm up enough for a brief transition to all rain Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Then cooler air sweeping in brings a changeover back to all snow overnight. On Monday a deep trough swings down into the middle of the CONUS, spinning up a surface low in the Plains. This rides up through the Ohio Valley along the existing front from Sunday's clipper and intensifies near us before pushing into southeast Ontario. Guidance is quite spread regarding when, where, and how much the surface low intensifies. As of now it looks as through we could be in for some gusty conditions late Monday night through all of Tuesday, and even into Wednesday ahead of a strong high sliding south through the Plains. We have a decent shot at some hefty synoptic snow or (at the very least) lake effect in the frigid air behind the system. Heading into midweek Arctic air pours out of Canada, likely giving us some of the coldest air this season.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Surface high pressure will slide across the region this afternoon and maintain overall quiet weather conditions. Still quite a bit of cloud cover across the region however, as is typical this time of year, with a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS.

Low pressure crosses the region tonight and will bring a swath of light snow across northern Michigan, and a broad area of one to two inches of snow. Conditions will deteriorate to solid MVFR and occasional IFR at the terminal sites as this system moves through. Winds shift back into the N/NW behind the system late tonight into Friday with some gustiness anticipated.

MARINE. Issued at 206 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Higher pressure will work into the region today, allowing winds to gradually weaken today, before the next cold front arrives late tonight. Behind this front, advisory level winds are likely to return to many nearshore waters for Friday, and possibly into Friday evening. Lake effect wanes into daybreak this morning, with additional light system/lake enhanced rain and snow developing quickly later today into tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . BA MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 27 mi53 min WNW 14 28°F 35°F16°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 35 mi33 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 31°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi53 min NW 4.1 G 8.9 26°F 38°F1013.6 hPa21°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 35 mi53 min NNW 5.1 G 8 31°F 1014.6 hPa18°F
TBIM4 44 mi53 min W 8.9 G 13 31°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI7 mi28 minNW 710.00 miOvercast30°F19°F63%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPZQ

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW5S5S4S4S4SW3SW5S6SW6W4W5W5W4SW5SW3W3W7W6W5W8W5NW13
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2 days agoNE5NE3CalmCalmW4W4W4W4W5S3SW3SW4SW3SW5SW7SW6SW4S5S5S6S7S6S7S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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