Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rogers City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 8:16PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 3:16 PM EDT (19:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:48PMMoonset 6:14AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- 1005 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late in the morning...then showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Showers in the evening...then showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southwest in the late evening and early morning...then becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Rain likely. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 30 knots. A chance of snow in the morning. A chance of rain. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ361 Expires:202004072015;;713264 FZUS63 KDTX 071405 AAA GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron...UPDATED National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1005 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will continue to push towards the region through the day. This low will bring wet weather and barometric pressure falls to around 29.50 inches. High pressure, 29.80 inches, briefly expands from the eastern Plains on Wednesday before a cold front tied to a low, 29.30 inches, moves through Wednesday night bringing in stronger winds and waves. LHZ361-072015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rogers City, MI
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location: 45.5, -83.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 071830 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 230 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Wednesday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

. Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon/Evening .

High Impact Weather Potential . Chance of thunderstorms mainly south of M-72. Any storms that do develop could contain small hail or gusty winds.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Low pressure area over WI this afternoon will continue to move east. A warm front associated with the low stretched from C WI to S MI with 50F+ dewpoints south of it. Elevated convection fired around noon north of the warm front over N WI at the nose of a 40kt 850mb jet and in some pretty good enhanced upper jet dynamics. Question for the afternoon and evening is where will convection develop over MI.

Easterly flow over Lake Huron and Ontario was slowing the push of warm air and moisture with the warm front. The warm front looks like it may make it into C MI this evening before the surface low moves through. Out ahead, BUFKIT soundings were showing marginal instability from CAD to HTL with skinny CAPE values of 500-700J/kg on the high res models. Best instability will be farther south along and south of the warm front. However, descent shear exists especially in the low levels and enhanced lift with the upper jet dynamics/850mb jet could help some convection to fire south of M-72 in the early evening hours. Slight chances of some hail or gusty winds but thinking attm is that severe weather will remain south of the region.

Rain chances end overnight with the passage of the low. Cooling and low level moisture could lead to some fog through daybreak.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

. Here Comes the Cold Air .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes . Wednesday, the next system, which looks a little slower than it did last night, moves out of Manitoba(a Manitoba Mauler), with the sfc low moving through northern Ontario and dragging the cold front through the Upper Great Lakes. The front itself, doesn't start to affect the state, until after 21z/Wed, so will expect that the dry weather will continue, and may have to make some RH adjustments to the forecast. The rain moves through the forecast area between 21z/Wed and 09z/Thu. It looks like there will be a pause, until the 850 mb temperatures fall to around 12z/Thu when the 500 mb low sinks into Michigan, with a shortwave trough rotating into the state as well. Temperatures look to get "cold enough" for snow as the models soundings show most of the profile below freezing, and the sfc layer just around the mid 30s, and wetbulbs around freezing. So will have mainly snow or rain/snow mix for the day on Thursday, then tapering off to flurries in the evening. However, the 850 mb temperatures over the UP, Lake Superior and N Lake Michigan look to be around -9C to about -10C. Will have to watch for lake enhancement or lake effect snow, but with the dry air in the 850-700 mb layer, will continue flurries/slight chance snow into Friday morning.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . minimal

Extended (Friday through Monday) . Friday, the potential for LES begins to diminish through the late morning and afternoon as the 850 mb temperatures begin to climb as the 1000-850 mb wind ridge moves into the region ahead of the next system. Saturday, The morning is dry, but the ECMWF organizes the sfc front and has a decent 500 mb speed max moving into N Lower by 18z/Sat. This will lead to rain showers. The GFS has more of a split flow and doesn't bring any precipitation, until Saturday night/Sunday morning. Then the GFS continues the rain development into Sunday, as piece of polar air dip into the Upper Great Lakes. The ECMWF Has some rain, and mainly in the SE portion of the forecast area, but dries out late Sunday evening. The ECMWF leaves things mild and dry through Monday night. While the GFS, continues cool and rainy (Snow at night?).

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

. IFR ceilings possible overnight .

Showers will cross the entire area through late evening with the possibility of some thunder mainly near KMBL and southern areas. Ceilings will drop to MVFR later this afternoon and could become IFR overnight as fog develops behind the showers. Improvement is expected Wednesday after daybreak.

MARINE. Issued at 1009 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Low pressure moving into the Great Lakes region will cross northern Michigan tonight, bringing showers and a few rumbles of thunder late today and this evening. Light and variable winds are expected as the low pressure passes, becoming NW later tonight. High pressure arrives Wednesday with light westerly winds turning to lake breezes over much of Lake Huron in the afternoon. Otherwise, SW winds increase a bit Wednesday in advance of another storm and cold front that blows through Wednesday night. Winds look to remain under advisory levels until this front passes, and winds turn sharply out of the W/NW. Several advisories are likely (low end Gales possible?) in the nearshore waters Wednesday night into Friday with cold advection in a tight pressure gradient, and growing overlake instability.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . KF SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . KF MARINE . KF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 27 mi107 min E 17 37°F 36°F32°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 35 mi27 min SSE 13 G 14 39°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi47 min E 9.9 G 13 40°F 35°F1007.2 hPa38°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 35 mi47 min SSE 7 G 13 40°F 1006 hPa35°F
TBIM4 44 mi57 min SE 12 G 13 38°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI7 mi21 minNE 510.00 miOvercast42°F32°F69%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPZQ

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N3NW4CalmCalmSW4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6CalmCalmE5SE4S3E4E4SE7SE7E8NE3
1 day agoN8N9N7N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmS6S5SW5SW3W4W6NE3NE3N7
2 days agoNW8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.