Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rogers City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday April 22, 2021 10:07 PM EDT (02:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 3:51AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 947 Pm Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southeast early in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southwest in the late evening and early morning...then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the morning...then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southeast in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots until early morning. A chance of rain in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain early in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LHZ361 Expires:202104230815;;971294 FZUS63 KDTX 230147 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Large sprawling high pressure with 30.20 inch center over the Tennessee Valley will gradually move off the east coast by Saturday morning. Broad area of low pressure 29.80 inches will move east through the Great Lakes this weekend. LHZ361-362-230815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rogers City, MI
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location: 45.5, -83.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 230147 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 947 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 947 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

High pressure is centered over KY. Westerly low-level winds are continuing to eject the thermal trof, with 805mb temps having warmed 7C since this morning (per 00Z APX sounding). The pressure gradient is somewhat tight between the high, and low pressure over far northern Ontario. But there is some bagginess to the pressure gradient over lower MI, and with clear skies, winds have lightened considerably. Do anticipate mainly clear skies until almost morning, when some warm-advection mid-clouds may poke into sw portions of the area.

The min temp forecast is a touch tricky. Some places have decoupled (CAD/Bellaire/Frankfort), and temps have dropped into the mid/upper 30s here. Have cautiously lowered min temps a few degrees in nw lower MI in particular. Are ag interests in nw lower MI in the clear tonight? Bluntly, no. But the pressure gradient tightens further overnight, and am thinking we will be just mixed enough to keeps temps from truly plunging.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

. Clearing but not as cold tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: None for now.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals short-wave ridging building across the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes with a fair amount of dry air (PWAT values generally under three tenths of an inch) across the region. Sprawling surface high pressure spans the lower Mississippi/Gulf Coast states with ridging stretching up through the western Great Lakes. Earlier mid level short-wave feature is east of the region and has taken much of the cloud cover with it. Had a robust amount of Cu/StCu blossom across the forecast area earlier in the day. Took awhile, but heating and deep mixing has finally thinned/ cleared out most the clouds with SCT-BKN conditions still lingering east of M-33 and a small portion of eastern Upper MI.

Short-wave ridge axis shifts eastward and nearly overhead by Friday morning with warmer air aloft finally making solid inroads into the region. This *should* finally lead to mainly clear skies for all areas tonight. We will retain a bit of a sfc pressure gradient with low level winds increasing off the surface as we go through the night. So despite the clear skies, we will not get as cold tonight as we have the last few, although our normally cold inland spots will likely dip into the upper 20s. But areas along the NW Lower MI shoreline with Ag concerns should remain a few degrees above/below freezing. Thus, we're not anticipating the need for a freeze warning.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

. Warming Temperatures then Temporarily Turning Colder Again .

High impact weather: Possible freezing nighttime temperatures Saturday night could damage the cherry and other crops.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperatures and Pops.

The upper level ridge axis progresses across the region Friday morning with a warmer return surface flow developing behind it. In addition, expect an increase in high clouds in the afternoon. Another short wave moves into the region late Friday night into Saturday and combines with an approaching surface cold front to bring a chance for rain showers Saturday into Saturday evening. Although model soundings indicate that the above freezing layer extends up to about 4000 feet, can not totally rule out a mix with a few wet snowflakes late Saturday night behind the front though lots of dry air arrive coincidentally with the cold air. Highs Friday of well into the 50s to around 60 and perhaps not quite as warm Saturday mainly due to a decent amount of cloud cover and the possible showers around. Could see freezing temperatures threatening fruit trees once again Saturday night but with breezy winds and lingering cloud cover we might get by unscathed (will continue the mention for now). Much cooler and a bit blustery Sunday with lingering clouds giving way to increasing sunshine. Cold air advection through a good part of the day is expected to lead to high temperatures struggling into the 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

. Warming Up Once Again .

High impact weather potential: Possible freezing nighttime temperatures could damage the cherry and other crops Sunday night.

Surface high pressure moves across the region Sunday night bringing another chilly night. This setup should allow temperatures to drop off fairly well possibly impacting fruit trees and such. The combination of strong return flow around departing high pressure to our east and low pressure moving up to our west through Tuesday should then lead to pronounced warming as well as low end chances for showers. Another area of low pressure moving across the region in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe will bring better chances for showers. Temperatures remaining above normal through Wednesday night followed by a return to near normal Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

VFR.

High pressure is crossing the TN/OH Valleys. As the high shifts east, winds will back, and warmer air will continue to work into the region. Our airmass is quite dry, and only patchy mid/high clouds are expected on Friday. VFR.

W to sw winds will be a touch gusty early this evening and again Friday.

MARINE. Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Some W/SW gustiness noted out there this afternoon particularly through the Straits with channeling/funneling. Marginal small craft conditions, but will maintain our current small craft advisory for those areas through early evening. Winds diminish overnight and Friday and we should remain marine headline free through the day Saturday. Stronger gusts return Saturday into Sunday with marine headlines likely at that juncture.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 35 mi27 min W 5.1 G 6 42°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi49 min W 6 G 8.9 38°F 40°F1012.8 hPa23°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 35 mi49 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 43°F 1013.3 hPa18°F
TBIM4 44 mi37 min 8 G 8.9 38°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI7 mi72 minWSW 410.00 miFair40°F16°F38%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPZQ

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W3W4W4W3W3W5W3W4W4W5NW8NW7NW6
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1 day agoNW11
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2 days agoW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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