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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- 404 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots in the evening becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then backing to the south late in the afternoon increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. Snow showers likely late in the afternoon. Snow showers likely and a chance of showers late in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the evening...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots until early evening...then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 041139 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 639 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Low pressure is moving east from Lk Ontario, while a weak ridge of high pressure is making eastward progress on western Superior.
Drier low-level air is making a weak push into the region, with surface dew points in the lower teens at ANJ/CIU, while still in the 20s to the south. Similarly, cloudy cover is more extensive in the south than north. There also continues to be some patchy light snow around northern lower MI, though this has been gradually dwindling.

As the surface ridge axis drifts closer, weak low-level flow backs from to nw. That will maintain dry advection from n to s. A few flurries will linger in northern lower into this morning, otherwise no precip expected into this evening. Cloud cover will decrease some, with eastern upper MI a little more optimistic (partly sunny, vs partly to mostly cloudy in northern lower).

Shortwaves will be pivoting north of Superior, and digging toward MKE/ORD, tonight. The southern wave will have the more prominent surface reflection, pushing into northern IL. Most of the forcing/moisture with this wave will be over southern Lake MI and nearby areas overnight. But clouds will increase again here, and a small chance for some snow reaches TVC-CAD and points west late overnight.

Max temps today 30s. Lows tonight upper teens to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Pattern Synopsis: General troughing regime expected to linger across the Great Lakes region through the day Tuesday, though 500mb heights will be on the rise. This in turn will begin the process of forcing troughing to our east and leaving us on the very western edge of it for the short term period. This will be close enough proximity to allow for a northern stream wave to pass through the upper Midwest, but with a more northerly flow, will be deflected more south across Wisconsin and Illinois through the day Tuesday. That being said, generally weak flow may allow for convergent flow to develop over the lakes, which may lead to some subtle lake convective processes to generate, particularly along the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Sneaky nuisance Tuesday snow potential.

Much of the CWA expected to see a lack of sensible weather through the day Tuesday as the northern stream wave passes well to the south. The exception will be areas generally west of US 131. Hi-res guidance is honing in on a mesoscale convergence zone, and while moisture will be nothing special, there could be enough to generate some snow showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. As far as accumulations go, still expecting most spots to come in with less than an inch owing to guidance based probs of 1"+ of snow holding less than 10%. Highs will be in the 30s for most, coldest in the eastern Yoop and interior northern lower. Height rises commence, allowing for a turning of the guard toward a warming trend to show its face. General lack of moisture results in a mainly dry day for most, but one last parting shot from the troughing regime likely brings another shot at precipitation beginning later WEdnesday afternoon into the evening, favoring far northern lower and the eastern Yoop (more details in the long term).

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snows Wednesday night in the eastern Yoop and far northern lower?

Aforementioned parting gift of a shortwave will serve its purpose to both bring in a round of wintry weather and usher in a warmup to the region as ridging surges into the Great Lakes to end the week.
Wednesday night system will be a bit more north-oriented in comparison with previous shortwaves given the north and east displaced flow around longwave troughing. Thus, accumulating snow potential will favor far northern lower into the Straits and particularly the eastern Yoop. Once this round of snow clears into the day Thursday, the associated warm front with the system will build northward and result in somewhat quieter weather across the region, but the bigger story will be the surge in abnormal warmth.
Long range guidance is supportive of widespread high temps in the mid-to-upper 40s (maybe even 50s?) Thursday and Friday across northern lower Michigan (probably lower 40s in the eastern Yoop.
This will most likely put a big dent in the snowpack across the region, with some spots probably losing all of their snowpack based on this anomalous warmth. There is some potential for this warmth being somewhat short lived, as long range guidance is hinting at a troughier regime trying to build in at some point later in the weekend or into the following week.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 639 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A weak ridge of high pressure will advance across Lk Superior today. Northerly flow ahead of the high will bring somewhat drier air to northern MI today. CIU and PLN will be VFR with minimal concerns. As you head further south, periods of MVFR cigs are expected today. Those will improve heading into this evening.

Light nw breezes.

MARINE
Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Mostly light northerly breezes today into Tuesday. Exception is very late tonight into Tue morning, where winds become more light/variable. Advisories should not be needed over the next day or two.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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