Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 4:30PM Thursday December 12, 2019 5:05 AM PST (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:14PMMoonset 8:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 220 Am Pst Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt during the late morning and midday hours before subsiding back down to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the mid to late afternoon. There could be an hour or so with gusts up to 35 kt with any stronger shower or Thunderstorm during the late morning or midday hours. Wind waves sw 5 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 13 seconds, building to 18 ft at 16 seconds. Showers. Slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..W wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 18 ft at 16 seconds. Showers. Slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt early in the morning. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 17 ft at 16 seconds. Showers likely.
Fri night..S wind 10 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sat..SE wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sat night..E wind 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the evening. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sun..S wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 10 ft.
Mon..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft.
PZZ200 220 Am Pst Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A showery weather pattern will produce periods of gusty winds and large seas through early Friday. A weak surface low pressure will likely move southeastward towards california Saturday before weak high pressure shifts across the waters on Sunday. Offshore flow will likely develop early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, OR
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location: 45.52, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 121132 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 328 AM PST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Mountain snow and valley showers will continue today and tonight then gradually decrease from north to south on Friday. Weaker systems brushing the forecast area bring a chance for precipitation over the weekend.

SHORT TERM. Thursday through Saturday . Nearly vertically stacked low centered in the Gulf of Alaska covers much of the north Pacific. Satellite shows large area of showers offshore that is heading toward the PacNW. Lightning is noted near 44N, 130W as an embedded shortwave in the westerly flow. This feature will track to the south WA and north OR coast today to bring a chance of thunderstorms later this morning and in the afternoon. Will have to watch how much surface low development occurs this morning as it could enhance the vertical shear. Current showers are mainly orographic in nature since the the higher moisture values are elevated. That will change this afternoon as the shortwave arrives so we should see more widespread showers. Orographics will largely drive the snow amounts for the Cascades where a winter storm warning continues through Friday above 4000 to 5000 ft. Current precipitation rates in the Cascades are less than 0.1"/hr, that will increase this afternoon so could see snow rate 1-2"/hr this afternoon and evening. The snow levels will initially be high enough that heavy snow is not expected at pass levels today. But the snow level drops to pass levels tonight so passes could have up to half a foot of new snow by Friday AM. The snow level continues to drop, lowering to about 2500 feet on Saturday. But by then snowfall will have also eased. Otherwise to not see hydrologic issues, other than the possibility of ponding of water where leaf clogged storm drains and heavy showers coincide.

In addition to rain, today also looks like a breezy day though significant wind impacts aren't expected. Operational model runs are pretty consistent in showing about a 4 mb gradient in the Willamette Valley this afternoon, which should translate to winds well below Wind Advisory criteria. In the Cascades, wind will combine with snow, but given the wet nature of the snow, don't think the combo will cause long lasting significant visibility reductions.

Of note to beachgoers, Thursday's surf is likely to bring hazardous beach conditions in the form of consistently higher than usual wave run-ups (high surf) and occasional surprising extra long run-ups (sneaker waves). See the High Surf Advisory for more details.

Also with the cold pool, snow levels in the Cascades will fall late Thursday afternoon through Friday, settling around 3500 to 4000 ft Friday, then dropping further Saturday to around 2500 ft. Expect showery conditions as the snow level drops, so while widespread snow accumulations after Friday morning are expected to be unimpressive, on/off snow will continue through at least Saturday. /mh Bowen

LONG TERM. Saturday night through Wednesday . Operational models seem to be in agreement that an upper level trough will move through the area Saturday night through Monday, decreasing chances for precipitation for the forecast area. Snow levels during this time will settle around 2500 ft bringing snow to the Cascades. Beginning Monday night, operational models are in agreement that an upper level ridge will develop over the Pacific NW until at least Tuesday. This should result in a break from the rainy pattern. However, uncertainty remains in the duration of this ridging. Following this brief dry period, an active pattern continues for the foreseeable future starting Wednesday. -Thaler

AVIATION. A showery and unstable weather pattern today will result in predominantly MVFR and VFR conditions through 00z Friday. It should be noted that pockets of IFR and LIFR conditions will still exist, particularly along the coast and across the western Willamette Valley at sites like KHIO, KMMV and KSPB this morning where fog and low clouds will be more likely to form for a several hour period. There will also likely be an enhancement in shower coverage and intensity between 17-20z Thursday. These showers could result in conditions temporarily deteriorating into IFR thresholds and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out either. Winds should begin to subside after 00z Friday and the lower atmosphere will begin to stabilize, which should result in conditions deteriorating into a mix of LIFR, IFR and MVFR conditions across much of the area between 06-18z Friday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . A showery and unstable weather pattern should lead to predominantly VFR and MVFR conditions through 00z Friday. Decreasing winds and a stabilizing atmosphere thereafter should lead to conditions deteriorating more solidly into MVFR and IFR thresholds. It should be noted that a few heavier rain showers will likely move across the terminal in the 17-20z timeframe per the latest high resolution model data so these could produce temporarily reduce conditions into IFR thresholds. /Neuman

MARINE. A showery and unstable weather pattern will produce periods of gusty winds and a slight chance of thunderstorms across the waters today. There could be a gust or two to 35 kt during any stronger showers or thunderstorms, but in general it appears wind gusts should generally top out in the 25-33 kt range. A small craft advisory is in effect, but will need to monitor surface observations and short term models in case it appears more widespread Gale Force winds will occur as it will likely be close. The bigger marine weather story today will be the large seas. Current seas are in the 11-13 ft range and should climb into the 17-19 ft range per the latest wave model data towards midday today. Seas should then linger in this range through at least daybreak on Friday.

Weak high pressure building over the waters on Friday should lead to winds and seas subsiding during the afternoon hours. Models are in fair agreement a weak surface low pressure will drop southeastward towards northern California Saturday, but it appears it will remain far enough removed to prevent the need for any advisories or warnings related to winds. Surface high pressure will then transit the waters Sunday before high pressure builds inland and turns winds easterly across the waters early next week. Nonetheless, seas do not look to drop below 10 ft until late Saturday and even then may continue to flirt with the 10 ft mark through the weekend. An additional front should bring a bump in winds and seas towards the end of next week.

Finally, will keep the high surf advisory in place even though the latest ENP guidance suggests our coastline will stay just shy of criteria when taking into account significant wave height and period. While we may not hit strict criteria, it will be close enough that the basic message that the surf zone should be avoided today and the risk for sneaker waves along area beaches exists still remain relevant. /Neuman

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM PST this evening for Central Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

WA . High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM PST this evening for South Washington Coast.

Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.Columbia River Bar-coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi54 min 49°F1015.2 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi54 min SSE 8.9 G 11 51°F 46°F1013.6 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi36 min 49°F12 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR9 mi71 minSSW 87.00 miOvercast52°F50°F94%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE3SE4SE3S4S5SE5SE7CalmSE5CalmS14
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1 day agoE3CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS3SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE8CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Oregon (2)
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Garibaldi
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Thu -- 01:13 AM PST     6.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM PST     3.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:11 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:05 PM PST     8.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:13 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:15 PM PST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.26.76.55.74.73.73.33.54.45.77.28.48.98.67.45.63.41.4-0.2-0.9-0.60.42.13.9

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Thu -- 01:51 AM PST     5.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:11 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:11 AM PST     1.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:43 PM PST     7.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:14 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:14 PM PST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.15.35.65.34.63.82.92.21.92.33.75.577.476.253.52.10.8-0.1-0.5-0.21.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.