Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenville, ME

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Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 7:37PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:46 AM EDT (14:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:48PMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 919 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers early, then a slight chance of tstms. Some tstms may be severe with damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall.
Tonight..S winds up to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..SW winds up to 10 kt, becoming around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 919 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A cold front will cross the region today and will be followed by high pressure building in from the west overnight. High pressure will crest over the region on Tuesday before shifting offshore to the southeast. A weak disturbance will push east through southern new england late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Weak low pressure will slowly move northeast through southern quebec Wednesday night and will drive a trailing cold front through the region after midnight. A secondary trough of low pressure will drop southeast through the region Thursday night and Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the west over the weekend. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenville, ME
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location: 45.54, -69.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 191406
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1006 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift northward across the area today. A cold
front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will move across
the region Tuesday. A cold front will approach later Wednesday
then cross the region Thursday. Another cold front is possible
Friday.

Near term through tonight
10 am update: upgraded thunderstorms coverage for coastal zones
and coastal waters for the complex moving along the coast this
morning. Added damaging winds to the forecast for northern
somerset, piscataquis and much of penobscot counties. Southern
piscataquis county still seems like the area where severe
parameter line up best. Metsat imagery showing clearing in large
portions of nh vt southern quebec where SBCAPE can develop this
afternoon. Mode appears to be a line that will move across
southern piscataquis and into southern central penobscot. Thus
damaging winds would appear to be a potential consequence. The
line will weaken as it enters a more stable environment in the
penobscot river valley and points eastward.

Prev disc: low st cld cvr and patchy to areas of fog have moved
into all of the fa xcpt the far NW from nb very erly this morn.

Meanwhile, a left ovr area of shwrs associated with a weak S wv
from the great lks is about to cross into downeast and cntrl
highlands areas, with most of this activity xpctd to weaken if
not dissipate before crossing into nb prov. Skies will be slow
to exhibit much in the way of prtl sunshine this aftn due to the
amt of moisture in the lower wx atmos.

Another S WV and associated cold front xpctd to arrive from
cntrl can will bring another round of shwrs tstms to mostly wrn
ptns of the fa later this aftn into erly eve. Decent 0-6km bulk
shear vectors alg with MAX sbcapes of 1000 to 1500 j kg ovr the
initiation zone near the ERN qb WRN me border could result in a
couple of bowing ln segments as stms enter WRN me mid to late
aftn with brief torrential rnfl rates and strong gusty winds.

Any TSTM gaining mid lvl rotation could also produce hail
despite relatively high fzls. Although rnfl will be lcly hvy,
tstms should cove with the faster forward corfidi vector motion,
lmtg the potential of prolonged hvy rnfl. Tstms should weaken
some as the move into ERN and downeast ptns of the fa toward
erly eve due to stabilization of the lower atmos due to marine
or modified marine air ovr these areas. Otherwise, shwrs and
tstms will end wnw to ese behind a cold front late this eve into
the ovrngt as a cold front crosses the rgn with late ngt clrg as
slightly drier air moves into the rgn on NW winds.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Drier on Tuesday, but warm as high pres settles across the
region. Daytime temps are forecast to reach into the 80s. The
high will remain in control of the region's wx right into early
Wednesday. It will become more humid on Wednesday as a return
flow of southerly winds will bring in higher dewpoints and
increasing clouds. Daytime temps will be warmer across the
northern and central areas W lower 80s, while the south wind
keeps the bangor region and downeast a tad cooler.

The latest set guidance including the gfs,ecmwf and NAM have
pushed back the timing of the showers light rain W the apchg
warm front til Wednesday evening. The canadian guidance was
faster and wetter showing the potential for some heavy rainfall
into the eastern areas. At first, the thought was that this
could due to some convective feedback, but looking further into
it, there appears to be a nose of warmer that pushes up into
the region Wednesday night W the warm front. The GFS does show a
jetstreak of 30 kts at 925-850 mbs W some elevated cape, but it
puts the heavier rainfall over the western areas. The ECMWF has
its jet dynamics well to the east and does line up W the heavy
rainfall potential. Tstms were kept in the forecast given the
elevated CAPE and that warm nose, but given the discrepancy on
the placement and amounts of the rainfall, confidence is low on
adding any enhanced wording for heavy rainfall attm. The
daycrew will need to assess this further today W the later
guidance. Fog was added as well due to the southerly flow and
moist llvls.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The associated cold front is forecast to move across the region
during the day on Thursday. Showers and fog in the morning will
limit instability. There could be a window of opportunity
however by late Thursday morning as a pre-frontal could move
out ahead of the cold front W some warming noted by the GFS and
ecmwf. This will allow for rapid destabilization W decent cape
potential. There is good shear ahead of the front W some
difluence aloft. This should be enough to get some tstms going.

Another thing to note is the strong upper jet helping enhance
development. Stayed W the daycrew's thinking of tstms W the best
potential ATTM being across the northern and western areas. It
will be interesting to see how things move as the new guidance
comes in.

The cold front is expected to clear the region Thursday night
w much cooler air on the way for Friday right into the weekend.

The long range guidance including the GFS and ECMWF show the
upper trof remaining across the region into Saturday. This will
allow for clouds to develop during the day. A disturbance
moving through the trof on Friday has the potential to produce
some showers mainly across the N and w. Decided to go W 20-30%
for precip chances. There could be a few showers still around
on Saturday as we remain under the trof. Used a blend apch and
have a slight chance(20%) for a shower or two.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Near term: another early morn of vlifr to lifr clgs vsbys in st
cld cvr and fog across our TAF sites. Clgs and vsbys will again
slowly rise back to MVFR and even lowVFR by erly to mid aftn
as the dwpt depression increases. Clgs and vsbys will briefly
lower to MVFR or even ifr at TAF sites experiencing tstms
and or heavier shwrs later this aftn into erly eve. Otherwise
conditions will become unlmtdVFR by late tngt, after perhaps a
brief pd of low st and patchy fog ovr downeast mid to late
evening before llvl cool advcn behind the cold front drives out
remaining llvl trop moisture.

Short term:
Tuesday...VFR all terminals.

Wednesday... GenerallyVFR W low clouds moving into bgr and bhb
by the evening.

Wednesday night... MVFR to ifr W some showers and fog setting.

Tstms are possible.

Thursday... Ifr W fog and leftover showers drizzle for all
terminals. Improvement by late morning to MVFR andVFR as the
cold front apchs from the w. Showers and tstms expected by the
afternoon which could drop conditions briefly to MVFR and
perhaps ifr.

Friday...VFR W occasional MVFR possible across the northern
terminals.

Marine
Near term: locally dense marine fog will continue tdy and a good
ptn of the ngt until offshore winds behind a weak cold front
dries the bl by erly morn tue. Went with about an 80 percent of
ww3 nwps guidance blend for fcst WV hts, with recent obsvd buoy
wv hts a little less than guidance. Most sig spectral WV pd
groups still include a 6 to 7 sec nwrd propagating regional
short wind fetch group and a 10 sec nwwrd propagating background
swell group from the open N atlc ocean.

Short term: wsw winds around 10 kts will back to the ssw on
Wednesday. Seas will average around 3 ft W a gradual buildup to
4 ft by Wednesday night. Visibilities will be reduced in fog
Wednesday night. SW winds will increase to 10-15 kt on Thursday
ahead of the apchg cold front W wind veering to the W later
Thursday night into Friday. Gusts could apch 20 kts especially
for the outer zones.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Vjn
short term... Hewitt
long term... Hewitt
aviation... Vjn hewitt
marine... Vjn hewitt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Greenville, ME6 mi1.8 hrsSE 7 G 15 mi64°F63°F96%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGNR

Wind History from GNR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm333NW4E5NE3SE75SE6SE5SE6SE6SE7------4--SE7SE6SE63SE7
G15
1 day agoS7SE9SE83SE5SE43S7SE5SE54Calm3Calm34CalmSE3--E3SE4CalmCalm--
2 days agoSE9--SE7SE4SE6SE5S54333S55--SE6--SE5SE6SE6SE7SE9SE6SE6--

Tide / Current Tables for Bangor, Penobscot River, Maine (2)
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Bangor
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Mon -- 01:32 AM EDT     13.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:18 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:57 PM EDT     13.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.813.713.812.610.47.34.21.90.81.23.36.610.112.613.312.710.98.35.42.91.61.63.26.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bangor, Penobscot River, Maine
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Bangor
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Mon -- 01:31 AM EDT     14.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:55 PM EDT     13.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:36 PM EDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.813.813.912.4107.14.32.111.236.31012.713.512.610.685.33.11.81.735.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.