Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greenville, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
5 AM Update: The winter weather advisory has been cancelled for central Piscataquis, northern Penobscot, and southern Aroostook counties as temperatures have lifted above freezing and precip is now plain rain while any wintry accumulation begins to melt.
Wintry mix will continue up through northern Aroostook for the next couple of hours.

Previous Discussion: A warm front continues to slowly lift northwards through the forecast area this morning, with warm air advection leading to temperatures quickly lifting into the upper 40s near the coast, and temperatures just beginning to lift above freezing in the north. Along the warm front boundary, a wintry mix complete with snow, sleet, and freezing rain is found, but there is a quick changeover to plain rain as temperatures begin to quickly warm.
Temperatures may not lift quite as quickly in the north early this morning due to local cold air damming, but this will shift as the morning wears on.

Gusty winds early this morning will begin to taper off through the day today as the low center moves closer to the area, tracking along the coast as it moves north and east. Under the center of the low, enough instability will exist that there is a slight chance for thunder due to around 200 to 300 J/kg of elevated CAPE. The most likely location for any lightning will be close to the low center: along the coast and up through Washington county this afternoon into this evening.

Stratiform rain through the day today will give way to scattered rain showers, tapering to drier weather overnight tonight. More mild temperatures are in store tonight due to the previous warm air advection with lows in the 30s over most of the forecast area. As the upper level trough remains over the area, unsettled weather continues, and showers may return through the day on Tuesday. These showers may start as rain early Tuesday afternoon, then could transition to snow over most of the forecast area as temperatures begin to drop into Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday night: The low pressure system will exit over the maritimes. As the surface ridge approaches, the question will be how gusty the winds become. Models show double digit pressure gradients across the state. Decided to increase winds across the region through the night giving localized 40 mph gusts. The cold W winds should bring much cooler temps into the 20s. Thus any remaining showers on the backside of the low will be snow showers.

Wednesday: The weak surface ridge should drive down WSW winds.
The next surface trof is expected to move in towards the end of the day. The cool airmass should push temps into the upper 30s across the region.

Wednesday night: The upper level trof should swing through a decaying low pressure system. This is expected to bring snow showers across the north and rain showers to the south. Though the region should see light S flow, to remaining cool airmass should keep temps 20s towards the end of the night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper level trof starts to exit over the waters as the upper level ridge over the Midwest progresses to the east. However, the surface high pressure is expected to be weaker than the exiting trof, thus the exiting surface low on Thursday is expected to slightly retrograde, bringing precip to the region through the weekend. Expect below normal temps.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions continue today. LLWS early this morning will give way to gusty winds later this morning. PL/FZRA early this morning will quickly give way to RA through the rest of the day. Slight chance for thunder, especially at coastal terminals. MVFR/IFR cigs through tonight, improving towards VFR from south to north through the day on Tuesday. E winds 5 to 10 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts early today become light and variable tonight, shifting SW at 10 to 15 kts on Tuesday with gusts to 20 kts.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A chance of rain showers Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Wednesday night.. MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers north.
VFR/MVFR Downeast with a slight chance of early rain/snow showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A slight chance of rain showers Downeast. West/northwest winds around 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early.
North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow/rain showers north. VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: High end small craft advisory conditions continue through the early morning hours with a few gusts to 35 kts and seas 6 to 9 ft. Winds will settle through the day today, falling below SCA criteria this afternoon. Seas will slow to react, with waves 5 to 7 ft on the coastal waters through tonight and the day on Tuesday. Winds will begin to increase towards 35 to 40 kts once more Tuesday afternoon. Rain today will taper off tonight, but showers will return on Tuesday with the next storm system.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Watch remains for Tuesday night. Winds and seas should decrease to SCA on Wednesday. SCA winds return late Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MEZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for ANZ050>052.