Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Garden, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:08AMSunset 5:07PM Saturday November 28, 2020 3:22 AM EST (08:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 6:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ261 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 903 Pm Cst Fri Nov 27 2020 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming north. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Monday..North gales to 35 kt. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Monday night..North winds to 30 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ261 Expires:202011281030;;504388 FZUS63 KMKX 280303 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 903 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... High pressure of 30.3 inches over Kansas will move into Kentucky tonight and Saturday. Southwest winds tonight will become breezy on Saturday, lingering into Sunday. Low pressure of 29.8 inches will move from far northern Minnesota to east of Lake Superior Saturday night and Sunday. The low will bring a strong cold front across Lake Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds are then expected behind the front Sunday night, with strong north winds Monday into Monday night becoming northwest on Tuesday. Gales are looking more likely for Monday into Monday night, along with high waves over the southern portions of the lake. && LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-281030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garden, MI
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location: 45.56, -86.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 280821 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 321 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2020

Water vapor imagery showing northwest flow aloft across the northern plains through the early overnight hours with scattered clouds over the Great Lakes region. The lack of cloud cover associated with a dome of high pressure will assist with temperatures decreasing into the low to mid 20s across the area for overnight lows. This will transition to weak upper level ridging that will continue to develop throughout Saturday. This will impact the CWA with elevated 700mb and 850mb temperatures through Saturday afternoon and evening. Additionally, there will be dry air advection into the mid-levels of the atmosphere above the weak inversion that will take place over the Upper Peninsula. This should shape up to be a really pleasant Saturday for the area. Taking a look at the climatology for the end of November, afternoon highs will be potentially up to 10 degrees above normal for the last week of November at MQT. The approaching weather system Saturday evening into early Sunday will be in the form of an Alberta Clipper. Not a ton of energy associated with the quick moving shortwave, but it will assist with increasing clouds and a higher chance of precipitation by Sunday morning over the northern forecast zones.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 340 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2020 The main focus of the long-range forecast period is a seasonably strong cold front on Sunday and the potential for lake effect snowfall Sunday night into Monday. After Tuesday, forecast confidence devolves into chaos with a closed low passing to our southeast and at least one other low developing to our west.

The long range period starts Saturday night when a storm approaches our CWA from Southern Saskatchewan and pushes a cold front through the CWA during the day on Sunday. With temperatures falling behind the cold front, a non-diurnal temperature curve appears likely across the western CWA. A period of lake effect snow should begin Sunday night for northerly snow belts. 850mb temperatures dipping to around -15C (deltaTs around 20C) and inversion heights maxing out around 5-6 kft early Monday morning should support a couple hours of more robust lake effect snowfall rates. Think most of the north flow LES belts should end up seeing around 1-3" of snow Sunday afternoon through Monday, with a few spots of 4-5" possible over the highest terrain and/or where there are more persistent bands. Could be a brief period of drizzle of FZDZ at the onset Sunday as well before the column saturates deep enough to generate ice crystals. But all in all, not expecting much of an impactful snowfall. Warming/drying at 850mb is expected to lower inversion heights during the day on Monday with snowfall intensity/coverage decreasing accordingly. Even with warming aloft, Monday is expected to be the coldest day of the upcoming week with maximum temperatures struggling to get into the mid-20s.

Deterministic models have the western low developing somewhere between north Texas and northern Minnesota with substantial differences in weather impacts to our CWA. 12z model guidance was split with the ECMWF/UKMET trying to phase these two lows whereas the GFS/CMC keep the lows separate. Ensemble guidance isn't particularly helpful either, but climatology of precipitation chances and temperatures seem like the best bet at this point. Assuming generally dry northerly flow aloft prevails, a return to more seasonable temperatures and occasional light snow should be expected. NBM guidance indicates potential for light synoptic/lake enhanced snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. Operational guidance indicates this threat - if it materializes - should be confined to the far east. GFS and CMC indicate a brief period of gale force gusts across eastern zones on Tuesday night into Wednesday, but ECMWF and UKMET have light winds. Considering model disagreement, we stuck with NBM winds in the grids after Tuesday 12z.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1238 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2020

Expect VFR conditions at all the terminals through the fcst period as some mid and high clouds pass across the region. West winds could gust around 20 knots at KCMX during the day on Saturday.

MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 320 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2020

Southwest winds will increase to 30 knots through mid morning with a few gale force gusts to 35 knots across central Lake Superior for the taller marine vessels. Wind gusts will dissipate briefly from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning to 20 knots or less. Next strong wind event will be on Sunday into Sunday night with winds again up to 30 knots with a few northwest gale force gusts to 35 knots. Model disagreement still present for the storm system evolution early next week with the sfc low placement and if the trend would be back to the west over our region.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . BW LONG TERM . EK/RJC AVIATION . Voss MARINE . BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 19 mi33 min W 16 G 18 36°F 47°F3 ft1015.8 hPa30°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 26 mi43 min W 13 G 15 34°F 1015.6 hPa
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 33 mi53 min 31°F 1014.4 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 41 mi43 min W 19 G 23 41°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistique, Schoolcraft County Airport, MI28 mi28 minWSW 410.00 miFair28°F21°F74%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISQ

Wind History from ISQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3CalmCalmW3CalmSW3SW6SW6SW8W6W7W7CalmCalmW4W3W7W3W3W4CalmW5SW5
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW6SW6SW8SW11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3N6NE4N3NE3NE5NE4NE4N4N5NE5N6NE7NE4NE5CalmN3N3N3N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.