Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 3:51 AM   Moonset 3:48 PM

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LMZ261 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 822 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 kt veering to northwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday night - East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 040529 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 129 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

-The UP remains under the preferred path for low pressure systems, with multiple notable features passing through the next week.
-In between systems, dry conditions will be expected, though mostly low winds and preceding rainfall should broadly limit fire concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Calmer weather is being seen this afternoon as the last of the cloud cover has lifted away from the far east. With sunny skies being overhead the rest of this afternoon and with subtle warm air advection continuing, highs today could get into the mid 60s to low 70s before this evening; some spots, including Watson, Marquette, and L'Anse, have gotten to 68F already. Otherwise, gusty WSW'rly winds across the western half continue the rest of this afternoon before dying down this evening as deep mixing takes place across our region. Moving into tonight, cloud cover looks to return to the west half late as another low pressure system from the Central Plains looks to lift towards the U
P
As it does so, we could see a few sprinkles late tonight from time to time across the west. Therefore, while skies will be mostly clear for tonight, the western half's low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer due to the incoming cloud cover; temperatures are expected to get down to the mid 40s near Lake Superior, the low 40s over the western interior, and upper 30s in the interior east tonight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Saturday morning, while troughing is based over far northern Ontario, a trailing shortwave trough will be passing through the Dakotas and will support a weak surface low. 12Z GEFS pressure centers suggest a 1005-1010mb surface low passing over central Lake Michigan late Saturday. Ahead of the low, rain chances spread across the western UP during the morning hours. This will keeps high temps cooler (around 60F) compared to the central and especially the east where highs approaching 70F are forecast. The cool front and associated rain chances spread across the central and eastern UP during the afternoon and evening, respectively. While this does line up with peak diurnal heating, 12Z HRRR mean MUCAPE only maxes out in the 100-250 J/kg range in the south and east, though simulated reflectivity does show some convective potential, so some slight thunder chances are left in the forecast for the evening hours, though impacts should be low. The convective nature of later showers biases the ensemble max rainfall, but the mean rainfall around a tenth of an inch (0.1 in) across the UP is a more reasonable forecast given meager instability and lack of training. The exception will be in the east, where the HRRR shows over 50% probabilities of 6-hourly rain rates over 0.25 inches and 30-40% chances of total rainfall over a half inch.

In the wake of the low, 500mb heights begin to rise Sunday, supporting a 1020mb high pressure settling over the UP through late Monday. This will give the UP as a whole its driest stretch of the last few weeks with high confidence of no precip through at least early Tuesday morning. The main forecast concern will be how dry the airmass gets for Sunday and Monday, as efficient mixing and radiative heating under clear skies will allow RHs to fall. Going with the 10th percentile of Td guidance Sunday and Monday results in RHs falling into the 30s, though with the recent precipitation and light winds directly under high pressure, fire weather concerns should be tempered.

A bowling ball closed 500mb low will be passing through the Rockies Sunday into Monday, negatively tilting as it does. This will support strong lee cyclogenesis, with the 12Z GEFS showing a mid 970s-upper 980s mb low over the Northern Great Plains. While confidence is increasing that severe weather much further south will result from this low progressing eastward, ensemble spread is high in the track, timing, and strength of this low pressure Tuesday and beyond. Late Tuesday has the highest chances of rain, with the NBM showing 50-80% PoPs during that time, but whether the low quickly ejects out or stalls is still unknown, so lower PoPs remain through the remainder of the forecast. With the cold-core nature of the system, the chances of embedded thunderstorms this far north will rely on some diurnal influences, but the strength of said storms is quite uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions continue into Sat morning as weak ridging continues to affect the area. Starting late tonight, another low pressure over the Central Plains lifts northeastward towards the Upper Midwest and brings more rainfall to the west as soon as Saturday afternoon. This incoming rainfall will bring MVFR and possibly lower conditions to across KIWD, MCMX and KSAW by the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Wind flow is split over Lake Superior, with the west half seeing SW winds up to 25 knots and the east half seeing winds less than 20 knots out of the SSE. Gusts lakewide fall below 20 kt tonight. As a weak low pressure passes through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday, the eastern portions of Lake Superior could briefly see some NW wind gusts up to 25 kt Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure settles over the lake Sunday and Monday, winds will be below 20 kt until Monday afternoon, when a strong low pressure over the Northern Great Plains will cause gusty northeasterly winds to funnel towards Duluth Harbor over 20 kt. The track, timing, and intensity of the low becomes uncertain after Monday night, but gales could occur (~20%) if the low tracks directly over Lake Superior with a moderate strength.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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