Marine Weather and Tides
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 8:08AM||Sunset 5:07PM||Saturday November 28, 2020 3:22 AM EST (08:22 UTC)||Moonrise 4:23PM||Moonset 6:06AM||Illumination 96%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garden, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMQT 280821 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 321 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020
SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2020
Water vapor imagery showing northwest flow aloft across the northern plains through the early overnight hours with scattered clouds over the Great Lakes region. The lack of cloud cover associated with a dome of high pressure will assist with temperatures decreasing into the low to mid 20s across the area for overnight lows. This will transition to weak upper level ridging that will continue to develop throughout Saturday. This will impact the CWA with elevated 700mb and 850mb temperatures through Saturday afternoon and evening. Additionally, there will be dry air advection into the mid-levels of the atmosphere above the weak inversion that will take place over the Upper Peninsula. This should shape up to be a really pleasant Saturday for the area. Taking a look at the climatology for the end of November, afternoon highs will be potentially up to 10 degrees above normal for the last week of November at MQT. The approaching weather system Saturday evening into early Sunday will be in the form of an Alberta Clipper. Not a ton of energy associated with the quick moving shortwave, but it will assist with increasing clouds and a higher chance of precipitation by Sunday morning over the northern forecast zones.
LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 340 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2020 The main focus of the long-range forecast period is a seasonably strong cold front on Sunday and the potential for lake effect snowfall Sunday night into Monday. After Tuesday, forecast confidence devolves into chaos with a closed low passing to our southeast and at least one other low developing to our west.
The long range period starts Saturday night when a storm approaches our CWA from Southern Saskatchewan and pushes a cold front through the CWA during the day on Sunday. With temperatures falling behind the cold front, a non-diurnal temperature curve appears likely across the western CWA. A period of lake effect snow should begin Sunday night for northerly snow belts. 850mb temperatures dipping to around -15C (deltaTs around 20C) and inversion heights maxing out around 5-6 kft early Monday morning should support a couple hours of more robust lake effect snowfall rates. Think most of the north flow LES belts should end up seeing around 1-3" of snow Sunday afternoon through Monday, with a few spots of 4-5" possible over the highest terrain and/or where there are more persistent bands. Could be a brief period of drizzle of FZDZ at the onset Sunday as well before the column saturates deep enough to generate ice crystals. But all in all, not expecting much of an impactful snowfall. Warming/drying at 850mb is expected to lower inversion heights during the day on Monday with snowfall intensity/coverage decreasing accordingly. Even with warming aloft, Monday is expected to be the coldest day of the upcoming week with maximum temperatures struggling to get into the mid-20s.
Deterministic models have the western low developing somewhere between north Texas and northern Minnesota with substantial differences in weather impacts to our CWA. 12z model guidance was split with the ECMWF/UKMET trying to phase these two lows whereas the GFS/CMC keep the lows separate. Ensemble guidance isn't particularly helpful either, but climatology of precipitation chances and temperatures seem like the best bet at this point. Assuming generally dry northerly flow aloft prevails, a return to more seasonable temperatures and occasional light snow should be expected. NBM guidance indicates potential for light synoptic/lake enhanced snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. Operational guidance indicates this threat - if it materializes - should be confined to the far east. GFS and CMC indicate a brief period of gale force gusts across eastern zones on Tuesday night into Wednesday, but ECMWF and UKMET have light winds. Considering model disagreement, we stuck with NBM winds in the grids after Tuesday 12z.
AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1238 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2020
Expect VFR conditions at all the terminals through the fcst period as some mid and high clouds pass across the region. West winds could gust around 20 knots at KCMX during the day on Saturday.
MARINE. (For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 320 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2020
Southwest winds will increase to 30 knots through mid morning with a few gale force gusts to 35 knots across central Lake Superior for the taller marine vessels. Wind gusts will dissipate briefly from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning to 20 knots or less. Next strong wind event will be on Sunday into Sunday night with winds again up to 30 knots with a few northwest gale force gusts to 35 knots. Model disagreement still present for the storm system evolution early next week with the sfc low placement and if the trend would be back to the west over our region.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . None. Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.
SHORT TERM . BW LONG TERM . EK/RJC AVIATION . Voss MARINE . BW
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands.||19 mi||33 min||W 16 G 18||36°F||47°F||3 ft||1015.8 hPa||30°F|
|FPTM4 - Fairport, MI||26 mi||43 min||W 13 G 15||34°F||1015.6 hPa|
|PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI||33 mi||53 min||31°F||1014.4 hPa|
|GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI||41 mi||43 min||W 19 G 23||41°F||1016.3 hPa|
Wind History for Port Inland, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Manistique, Schoolcraft County Airport, MI||28 mi||28 min||WSW 4||10.00 mi||Fair||28°F||21°F||74%||1014.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KISQ
Wind History from ISQ (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||SW||SW||SW||SW|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||NW||NW||N||NE||N||NE||NE||NE||NE||N||N||NE||N||NE||NE||NE||Calm||N||N||N||N |
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GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
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