Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Garden, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:48PM Monday June 21, 2021 3:33 AM EDT (07:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:09PMMoonset 2:31AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ261 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 831 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 20 2021 Sturgeon Bay Wi To Point Betsie Mi North...
.gale warning in effect from 7 am cdt Monday through Monday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt after midnight, then veering to west 15 to 25 kt late. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Monday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt late in the evening, then becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt after midnight becoming west 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Thursday..South winds to 30 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ261 Expires:202106210930;;595383 FZUS63 KMKX 210131 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 831 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure of 29.2 inches over central Wisconsin will continue to move northeast tonight, moving across northern Lake Michigan. Northwest winds will pickup behind the low and associated cold front tonight into Monday, with gale force winds likely across the northern third of the lake. Winds may approach gale force at times farther south. Lighter winds are then expected Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure of 30.0 inches moves through the region. && LMZ261-362-364-563-210930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garden, MI
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location: 45.56, -86.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 210732 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 332 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Monday) Issued at 349 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2021

. Steady rain tonight, then blustery and sharply cooler on Monday .

A potent shortwave as noted on water vapor imagery and the RAP analysis was over the Dakotas embedded at the base of a mid/upper level trough from northern Hudson Bay through Manitoba into the northern Plains. The deepening sfc low associated with the shortwave is over southern MN at present and is forecast to track across central WI and the Straits of Mackinac tonight bringing fairly widespread rain to the area and blustery nw winds behind the system late tonight into Monday.

Although some light showers have worked into west half portions of Upper Mi this afternoon, the steadier rain is expected to spread into the area later this afternoon into this evening with increasing isentropic ascent and mid-level fgen in response to coupled upper- jet structure fueling the deepening sfc cyclone which will be tracking just south through WI. Although all areas should see some rain during this event, the most consistent model signal for the heaviest rainfall has been over west and north central Upper Mi where fgen forcing/deformation will be maximized in the nw quadrant of the cyclone track. Model consensus indicates that an inch or more of rain could fall over the nw half of the U.P. with the greatest amounts of 1.5-1.7 inches over the Porcupine Mtns and Huron Mtns/Michigamme Highlands where orographic lifting will aid with amounts Closer to the track of sfc low. rainfall amounts over south central and eastern counties will more in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range.

As the low pressure system deepens and moves east of the area late tonight cold air wrapping in behind it and associated increased mixing and 6 hr pres rises of 6-11 mb will create gusty northwest winds of 30-40 mph late tonight into Monday, highest across the Keweenaw and the east half of the cwa. Moist cyclonic flow and orographic lift will maintain higher rain chances for northwest flow favored locations late tonight into early Monday. The strong winds will cause waves to respond and potentially build to near 11 feet on Monday between Shot Point and Whitefish Point, which could cause some minor lakeshore flooding concerns and obvious marine boating/recreation hazards. Precip looks to be largely over by midday Monday after lingering lake-induced showers over the northwest lake effect zones end.

Expect min temps tonight ranging from the lower 40s west to lower to mid 50s south central. Highs Monday will be much blo normal, mainly in the 50s with coolest readings north.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 332 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

Broad troughing extending southward out of an upper level low over Hudson Bay will persist over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday. The result will be cooler than normal temperatures persisting. Weak WAA will help warm things up though and 850mb temps early on near 1C are progged to climb to near 4C by 0z Wednesday. This should translate to highs in the 60s across the region. A passing shortwave coupled with weak instability and increased convergence along the lake breeze boundaries could support some shower activity across the central and east. Vertical growth should largely be limited due to capping around 12k ft; if the 300-500 j/kg MLCAPE is realized though, some rumbles of thunder could be observed across the central and east in the late afternoon and evening. Weak upper level ridging will build in overnight and allow winds to become more southerly as high pressure at the surface moves into the middle-Mississippi River Valley. Overnight lows are largely expected to be in the 40s except near the lakeshores where low 50s are possible.

The high will push toward the east coast through the day Wednesday, allowing for stronger WAA and temps to climb into the 70s. Some weak theta-e advection could kick off some shower activity across the far south, but there's a good bit of uncertainty between the 0z guidance and its more likely that any activity would stay south of the forecast area.

Late Wednesday night, an elongated cold front is progged to dip toward Lake Superior. Weak jet dynamics, healthy theta-e advection and MLCAPE near 500j/kg will be enough to support shower activity by sunrise in the west and central. Some thunderstorms can't be ruled out as well. With this boundary slowly pushing eastward through the day, there could be another opportunity for widespread rain across the region. Ahead of the front, ~45kt LLJ at 925mb will be able to support 25 to 30 mph southerly wind gusts in the east, particularly near Lake Michigan, until late Thursday when the front exits into Ontario.

Guidance the past few days has shown a consistent signal for an upstream shortwave near the Dakotas to push eastward into the Upper Midwest Thursday night. Through the day Friday, surface cyclogensis would follow, with the low lifting through Lake Michigan and Lower Michigan. With strong moisture advection with this system, there could be another opportunity for rain. This track currently favors the low's deformation zone moving over the central or eastern UP, which could contribute to improving drought concerns. It should be noted that there is considerable spread among the GEFS and GEPS members on where the low tracks. If the low trends southward, then it could end up being a dry Friday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 124 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

IFR and LIFR conditions are expected overnight at all the TAF sites as rain moves though the area. There could be intermittent improvements to MVFR with breaks in the showers. Conditions will improve to VFR/MVFR during the morning on Monday as a cold front moves though the area. Winds behind the front will be gusty from the northwest and could not rule out a few gusts to 40kt from KCMX to KSAW. Winds then diminish around sunset Monday evening.

MARINE. (For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 349 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2021

Light winds across the lake today will sharply increase tonight as a potent low pressure system tracks just south of the area. Unseasonably cold air wrapping around the low late tonight through the day Monday will lead to strong NW winds. Models have had a consistent signal for a several-hour period of gales Monday morning over the north-central and eastern portions of Lake Superior. Therefore, Gale Warnings will continue with this forecast package. Could see a brief period of NW winds up to 35-40 kts Monday morning. Winds will quickly diminish Monday night to 20 kts or less and remain that way through at least next Thursday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior . Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ251-267.

Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ249-250-266.

Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ248-265.

Gale Warning until noon EDT today for LSZ244-245-264.

Lake Michigan . Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221-248-250.



SHORT TERM . Voss LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . NL MARINE . Voss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 26 mi53 min ENE 1.9 G 6 60°F
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 33 mi63 min E 5.1 G 6 60°F 59°F994.8 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 41 mi53 min SE 2.9 G 6 65°F 995.9 hPa
45183 44 mi33 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 65°F 62°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 46 mi53 min E 4.1 G 4.1 61°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistique, Schoolcraft County Airport, MI28 mi38 minNNW 37.00 miOvercast59°F59°F97%995.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISQ

Wind History from ISQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S4SE4S3SE5S7SE9S7S5SE3SE3CalmE3NE3NE3SE5CalmCalm
1 day agoN4CalmN3N4N5N8N7N6N8N7N9N8
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N9N9N7N5N5NW3CalmN4Calm--Calm
2 days agoS3S3W3CalmS3CalmS7S6S7W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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