Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 4:25 AM   Moonset 6:27 PM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1039 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Today - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East wind 15 to 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 061344 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 944 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

UPDATE
Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Current forecast remains on track with a few to scattered high clouds impinging on the southeastern portions of the forecast region this morning. Skies will clear, or remain clear, this afternoon as high pressure settles just to the east of northern Michigan along with generally light winds and warm afternoon temperatures. Afternoon lake breeze will keep lakeshores cooler than interior northern lower Michigan, especially the Lake Huron side. Heading into tonight, cool temperatures expected with a few areas of patchy frost once again across the interior. For additional details see the short term discussion below.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Northern Michigan lies at the upper-level trough/ridge inflection point aloft with attendant subsidence supporting surface high pressure squarely overhead early this morning. Height rises anticipated today with mid-level ridge axis draped across the state tonight in advance of vertically stacked low pressure pinwheeling over the northern Plains that'll eventually send a warm front towards the western Great Lakes later Tuesday.

Forecast Details:

A chilly start for many across northern Michigan early this morning with the coldest readings (low-mid 30s) as of 3:00 AM in the typically cooler spots of both interior eastern upper and northern lower. Some thin high clouds currently observed across northern lower...most numerously near and south of M-72. That won't limit sun-filled skies in the day ahead as afternoon high temperatures surge back into the mid-60s to mid-70s area-wide.
Light winds will promote lake breeze development resulting in cooler temps at the lakeshores -- especially on the Lake Huron side where midday lake breeze development may limit some immediate lake side locales from rising out of the 50s.

Another round of chilly temperatures and more frost potential exists for the night ahead, however riddled with uncertainty and less confidence than the current night. While the aforementioned ridge axis is expected to be overhead, surface high pressure should be centered pretty well off the northeast. None the less, trends favor winds decoupling again overnight with a period of calm or very light southeast winds area-wide. Further uncertainty around cloud cover with upstream convection over the Plains and mid-upper MS Valley perhaps spilling some high debris clouds into the western Lakes. Gut feeling following latest trends is that it'll be another fairly chilly night with at least a period of decent radiational cooling and frost potential -- once again favoring raw statistical guidance, rather than blended probabilistic guidance, with some localized lows falling into the low-mid 30s across the typically favored interior spots.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Troughing continues to swing away from the Upper Great Lakes; ridging building into the Upper Midwest in its wake attm, as anomalous troughing continues to dig through the western US, aided by upstream troughing/jet over the Pacific. Southerly flow picking up across the high Plains, with a weakly-defined warm front developing here. Shortwave trough in the southern stream of the flow over the Mid MS Valley...along BCZ stretching from Quebec down through the OH Valley, ultimately into TX, where it loops back up along the lee of the Rockies. Anomalous moisture along and ahead of this BCZ, with pwats ramping up into the 1.5+ inch range. Some high clouds from this feature trying to sneak into the Great Lakes, but struggling beneath strong subsidence over the region...with surface high pressure nearly dead overhead.

High pressure expected to hang on across the Great Lakes today into tonight...but will be looking for height falls across the Upper Midwest late tonight into Tuesday...as that downstream system spirals over the central US, with a lobe of PV swinging northward into the region with a warm front Tuesday afternoon/evening. As the PV max slips into the region Tuesday night, anticipate the primary warm front will stall out...with a stationary boundary stretching back into the central Plains along the perimeter of the upper low over MT/WY. This should keep things relatively dreary going into Wednesday, with the upstream upper low looking to eject eastward into Wednesday night. This should allow another wave to develop along the lingering boundary, and track somewhere through the OH Valley, though the exact position and evolution with northern stream energy over Ontario still a bit unclear. For now, though, signals point toward the better rain chances remaining across southern/central Lower MI going into Thursday. Ultimately looking for a clipper to dig into the region late in the week...as the upstream pattern tries to turn blocky. Still looking like we have a shot at remaining generally troughy overall for Mother's Day weekend and beyond, though exactly how this occurs is still up in the air (pun intended).

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Thunderstorm potential and hazards Tuesday/Tuesday night...
Antecedent dry airmass leftover from today, especially aided by slightly stronger southeasterly flow ahead of the warm front...should result in slower precip onset, as hinted at in yesterday morning's AFD. This may, in fact, also result in less impressive QPF for the region, as the bulk of the deeper moisture may be wasted in trying to saturate the atmosphere, rather than precipitating out. Guidance still wants to try to stall that boundary out over northern Michigan somewhere...which will play a large role in how things evolve for our area...as the further north it gets, the more into the warm sector we will get, and the greater potential for seeing better parameters for severe weather. Do have to wonder if more sunshine will allow for more destabilization, and/or cause the warm front to jump further north than expected...but think we will still have to contend with a decent cap around 925-850mb or so...which could put the kibosh on anything surface based, except for perhaps down toward the M-55 corridor/Manistee, where there is a slightly better shot at getting into the warm sector.

Still looks like we could have enough deep forcing with the PV max and warm front to get some elevated convection, particularly noting some potential for steeper lapse rates aloft at times (though the best of these may remain in the warm sector...and/or near mbL again)...which could lend a marginal hail threat. Additionally, with potential for some low-level surface based cape in the vicinity of the warm front, along with potential for development of some kind of weak low that may trek through the area...can't rule out the possibility of tornadoes, though this should be relatively small...and the greater chance of this should remain to our south.
Also think damaging winds could be a threat in the warm sector...particularly if the cap ends up being broken/overcome (which is much more questionable for our area than points south attm). Agree with the new Day 2 severe outlook, which for now keeps the marginal risk just south of our area...though as has been mentioned several times thus far, we will have to keep an eye on how far north that warm front ends up getting Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise...with pwats floating around the top end of climo (around an inch or so), particularly with a stalled boundary around, there should be a threat for heavy rain/localized flooding, even north of the warm front where surface based parameters may not be impressive.
Will also be something to keep an eye on as we draw nearer.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions under mostly sunny/clear skies through the TAF period. Light winds with localized lake breeze development and associated chaotic wind shifts expected this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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