Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cross Village, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 8:16PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 9:39 PM EDT (01:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:53PMMoonset 6:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 434 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning...
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming north early in the evening, then becoming west after midnight. Areas of drizzle and a chance of showers early in the evening. Patchy dense fog through the night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest wind to 30 knots. Numerous snow showers and scattered showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202004080445;;728906 FZUS53 KAPX 072034 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 434 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-080445-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cross Village, MI
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location: 45.58, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 080038 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 838 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Wednesday) Issued at 424 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Low pressure area over WI this afternoon will continue to move east. A warm front associated with the low stretched from C WI to S MI with 50F+ dewpoints south of it. Elevated convection fired around noon north of the warm front over N WI at the nose of a 40kt 850mb jet and in some pretty good enhanced upper jet dynamics. Question for the afternoon and evening is where will convection develop over MI.

Easterly flow over Lake Huron and Ontario was slowing the push of warm air and moisture with the warm front. The warm front looks like it may make it into C MI this evening before the surface low moves through. Out ahead, BUFKIT soundings were showing marginal instability from CAD to HTL with skinny CAPE values of 500-700J/kg on the high res models. Best instability will be farther south along and south of the warm front. However, descent shear exists especially in the low levels and enhanced lift with the upper jet dynamics/850mb jet could help some convection to fire along/south of M-55 in the early evening hours. Slight chances of some hail or gusty winds but thinking attm is that severe weather will remain south of the region.

Rain chances end overnight with the passage of the low. Cooling and low level moisture could lead to some fog through daybreak.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 424 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. May not be very nice but significant impacts not anticipated.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Very pronounced split flow pattern across western North America . with the two flow branches merging over the central High Plains with the Great Lakes under the influence of the northern branch of this reconstituted flow regime. Southern branch of the split is dominated by a "becoming more but not quite yet cut off" low off the California coast . still "attached" to the northern branch by an elongated PV filament that extends into Minnesota/ northwest Wisconsin/western Upper Michigan and is helping force upstream precipitation development this afternoon. Jet streak emerging from the Gulf of Alaska is helping consolidate a negative PV anomaly across the prairie provinces with height falls spreading into the northern High Plains and upper Midwest. Low amplitude anticyclonic subtropical jet axis extends up into the Ohio Valley.

Broad area of surface low pressure extends across Alberta/ Saskatchewan/Manitoba and southward into the Plains and upper Midwest. Low pressure wave over southern Minnesota along a frontal boundary that extends southeast into far southern Lower . with 60+F dew points on the warm side of this front.

The upper low dropping south along the California coast will eventually become truly cut off . while the northern branch buckles with the jet energy coming in from upstream. Associated height falls will push a cold front across Michigan Wednesday . with the core of the upper level energy crossing the upper Great Lakes Thursday with a pretty impressive sub-515dm 500mb low north of Lake Superior. Combination of this feature and upper low current retrograding across Atlantic Canada will realign a long wave trough axis across eastern North America. Bulk of the dynamic energy will probably be east of Michigan Thursday though there is a secondary jet streak that looks to dive south of Michigan. Cold cyclonic flow will prevail across Michigan Thursday/Friday before it relaxes its grip by Friday night.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Expect that there will be ongoing precipitation at least across northern Lower at the start of the short term forecast period Wednesday night . mostly post-frontal and with the best QPF potential concentrated over northeast Lower. This initial push of precipitation should be mostly east of Lower Michigan during the early morning hours of Thursday. Increasing cyclonic flow then begins to wrap colder air and moisture back across northern Michigan Thursday . which should set the stage of a good bit of instability shower activity with precipitation more likely of the frozen (snow/graupel) variety given the convective nature of the precipitation. Background wind will be gusty as it is Thursday (upwards of 30mph with stronger gusts downwind of the Great lakes . but some of the showers will likely be accompanied by stronger wind gusts on top of that. Overall looks like a pretty raw day for Thursday with highs most areas stuck in the 30s with lower 40s more probable south of an APN-HTL line with downsloping northwest winds. Will continue to see snow showers into Thursday night as the coldest of the air arrives (850mb temperatures in the -10C vicinity by Friday morning) . trajectories may become a more anticyclonic overnight which may result in a diminishing trend in coverage into Friday. There is another short wave trough coming in from the north Friday that may cross eastern Lake Superior and drop into the forecast area . does appear that there is an overall drying trend both in a relative and absolute sense but can't rule out some lingering higher based snow showers Friday morning but will allow for a more optimistic trend for the afternoon. Winds still expected to be gusty from the northwest Friday but are expected to diminish by evening.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 424 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Watching potential for a spring storm system in the Sunday-Monday time frame . maybe.

Hemispheric three wave pattern will support eastern North American long wave trough to continue to retrograde as short wave energy continues to pour into the backside of this trough over western North America. These height falls look to eventually scoop up what remains of the southern branch cut off low and swing it northeast from the southern Plains Sunday. Exactly how this evolves has big implications of weather potential for early next week . and anytime you have tight baroclinicity and an overlying disturbance there are lots of ways this can play out. For the time being Saturday more than likely ends up being dry . but with increasing warm advection the threat for precipitation goes up especially by Sunday. Eventual evolution of this system will also have a big say in precipitation type across the upper Lakes including the possibility of accumulating snow But the consensus forecast. which usually goes nuts with precipitation chances in the out periods of the forecast . is mind-bogglingly quiescent for Monday right now. Will play nice in the sandbox for now (in other words what you read above will not be adequately conveyed in the forecasts) and see where later forecast trends drag us.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 837 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Corrected . A good chance of rain showers will continue through the evening for all TAF sites besides PLN. Thunder is also likely to continue for TVC and possibly mbL for the next couple hours. Conditions are expected to remain IFR for many areas as fog remains possible through the night. Some weak wind shear in the lowest 1500 feet is possible between now and midnight, but confidence in this is low at this time. Conditions will improve Wednesday morning before more scattered showers return to the area in the afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 424 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Main concern for marine interests will be increasing winds starting Wednesday night and continuing probably into Friday though the strongest winds will be Thursday and Thursday night. Widespread small craft conditions expected . and some gale possible especially on Lake Michigan (where a Gale Watch has been posted for most nearshore zone) and possibly from the Straits to Presque Isle Light nearshore zone on Lake Huron as well as on parts of Whitefish Bay.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . GALE WATCH from Thursday morning through Friday morning for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . KF SHORT TERM . JPB LONG TERM . JPB AVIATION . STJ MARINE . JPB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 20 mi58 min E 2.9 G 2.9 36°F 38°F1003.5 hPa36°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi60 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 1004.1 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi60 min ESE 5.1 G 6 37°F 1003.4 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi70 min 36°F 36°F34°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI11 mi46 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast42°F37°F85%1004 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI12 mi45 minENE 610.00 miOvercast42°F41°F99%1003.4 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi45 minN 07.00 miOvercast44°F41°F93%1003 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPLN

Wind History from PLN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E6NW9E8E6SE5E6E6E3CalmS4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3W5W7W4Calm5NW6W5NE10N6CalmCalm
2 days agoNW7NW10NW8NW6N6NW10NW7N8N6N6NW4N6CalmW53NW5----CalmW6NW6N5N5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.