Saturday, September19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cross Village, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:41PM Saturday September 19, 2020 1:47 PM EDT (17:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 8:16PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1139 Am Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202009192345;;054198 FZUS53 KAPX 191539 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1139 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-192345-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cross Village, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 191605 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1205 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1157 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Forecast going largely as expected so far today. A short wave diving southeast across northern Ontario is spilling cloud cover across upper MI and the Tip of the Mitt. Most of the rainfall with this feature should stay north of the forecast area, but a little light rain/sprinkles are possible through the afternoon across eastern Upper (last ob at Soo Ontario had sprinkles).

While not a significant change as far as expected low temperatures tonight, have issued a Frost Advisory for parts of northern Lower MI, primarily south of M-72. This will be the area with the lightest winds, clearest skies, and lowest dew points for tonight.

Some locations in the forecast area did see hard freeze conditions this morning. However, there were enough areas that didn't and it is still a little early climatologically speaking, that we will continue issuing Frost/Freeze headlines as needed at this time.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 209 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Impactful weather: A little bit of light rain in eastern upper, and a little more frost tonight in nrn lower.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper troughing is in the NE conus, with ridging in the Plains. The continues to result in NW flow aloft for nrn Michigan. A shortwave is seen dropping SE into NW Ontario, with a 30-35kt LLJ resulting in a pretty good pocket of low to mid level theta-e convergence across SE Ontario. This forcing, combined with DPVA from the shortwave has led to an area of light rain shower crossing the Dryden radar. Here in nrn Michigan, we just had some passing this cirrus above sfc high pressure and dry air, which was resulting in good radiational cooling. Temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s and 30s, with more cooling yet to go. Another very quiet and chilly night.

Temperatures will solidly get down into the 20s and lower half of the 30s by daybreak, supporting the current frost/freeze headlines. We'll likely see more high level cirrus floating overhead today, while the upstream shortwave continues it's dove down into the region. Forcing from the aforementioned theta-e convergence and DPVA sure looks to bring some of those light rain showers to portions of eastern upper, but they likely won't make it to nrn lower, based on the latest deep layer -divQ placement and moisture availability on fcst soundings. The shortwave crosses this evening, ending any rain, but there will some residual clouds that could keep skies mostly cloudy for the night in eastern upper. Less clouds for nrn lower with some additional decent radiational cooling for frosty conditions for primarily the SE CWA.

Highs today will mostly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows tonight be in the upper 3 to lower 40s most areas, with less cloud in the SE CWA to send readings down into the 33F to 36F range for potential frost.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Sunday morning, ongoing upper-level troughing will have shifted across the Northeast with rising heights being the rule locally through the day Sunday as upstream ridge axis becomes draped overhead late in the day. Upper-level flow becomes more zonal through the day Monday as a vertically stacked system passes well to our north across far northern Ontario towards Hudson Bay late Monday into Monday night. This system may drag a weak, moisture-starved cold front toward the area through this time frame, but likely with little fanfare.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Low PoPs late Monday with aforementioned frontal boundary?

Deep southerly return flow on the backside of departing surface high pressure will be the rule to wrap up the weekend as high temps inch back towards normal . ranging from the low-mid 60s area-wide under mostly sunny skies. Not nearly as cool of a night Sunday night with lows ranging from near 40 degrees in the typically cooler/interior locations to approaching 50 degrees at the lakeshores.

Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated Monday as well with southerly flow continuing to aid in boosting temperatures another several degrees over Sunday. High temps progged to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s . readings that would actually be a few degrees above normal for late September. Aforementioned system passing well to our north late in the day Monday is expected to be positioned across far northern Ontario/near Hudson Bay Monday evening with a frontal boundary extending southward toward the western Great Lakes. Suppose it's not entirely out of the question that a few sprinkles or very isolated showers dot the map across far northern areas Monday night, but confidence in this occurring is quite low. Monday night lows ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Little in the way of adverse weather anticipated Tuesday through Wednesday as mid-upper level ridging swings atop the region coinciding with another couple of days of above normal temperatures. Beyond this, there is fairly decent agreement that a pronounced trough and attendant surface reflection slide to the north of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This system looks like it'll bring the next chance for a few showers followed by a potential clipper-like system trailing behind for the very tail end of the long term forecast period.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 602 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

High pressure over the nrn Michigan today, will move off to the east tonight. Dry and cool air remains in place for continued rain-free conditions. This will provide solid VFR conditions at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites, with the exception of the typical late night/early morning fog/brief IFR conditions that always seems to happen at mbL/PLN. Light and variable winds will become southerly around 10 knots today.

MARINE. Issued at 209 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

High pressure over the nrn Michigan today, will move off to the east tonight. Dry and cool air remains in place for awhile for rain-free conditions. Winds will become breezy starting Sunday night, with possible advisories for the upcoming work week. This will occur ahead of a cold front that brings the next chance of showers of Wednesday night into Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . FROST ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ026>036-041-042. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . PB NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 20 mi54 min SSW 7 G 11 55°F 59°F1027.5 hPa33°F
45175 21 mi29 min E 1.9 G 5.8 56°F 58°F1029 hPa38°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi68 min S 4.1 G 7 64°F 1029.5 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi68 min SSW 15 G 20 55°F 1027.8 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi78 min SSW 8 51°F 56°F35°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI11 mi54 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F33°F38%1029.8 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI12 mi53 minWSW 410.00 miFair57°F35°F45%1029.5 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi53 minSSW 610.00 miFair58°F36°F44%1029.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPLN

Wind History from PLN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W7NW8W10NW8W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5CalmS6S8S8
1 day agoNE5N5
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N11NW13NW10NW4N7N6N5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4--N9N9
2 days agoNW11
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NW14NW10N9NW6NW6CalmNW4NW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7NE64N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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