Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cross Village, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 412 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging and associated height rises will continue to overspread the Great Lakes behind troughing working across the northeast CONUS.
Surface high pressure centered over the Midwest will build into the Ohio Valley underneath favorable subsidence aloft. Meanwhile, troughing will dig across the Upper Midwest later tonight, supporting a cyclone that will trek across Hudson Bay and swing an attendant cold front into the Great Lakes heading into Thursday morning.

Forecast Details:

Lingering lake effect, additional snow late -- Westerly to west- southwesterly flow and meager low-level moisture will be enough to continue supporting light lake effect snow showers across parts of northwest lower Michigan this morning into the early afternoon.
Moisture quality will degrade with time today as aforementioned ridging slides overhead, working to end lake effect showers for most areas by this evening. Accumulations will remain around 1" or less for most through today. A brief lull in snow chances is anticipated this evening before the next round of snow moves in later tonight from west to east along and ahead of the aforementioned front. While many areas away from the lakeshores are expected to see another 1" or less with this round, those close to Lake Michigan will see higher totals due to lake enhancement. Albeit shallow, this will likely support totals of 1-3" across counties next to Lake Michigan by Thursday morning with the potential for localized higher amounts.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 412 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

The weather this winter has been in stark contrast to last year when we had record warmth along with low snowfall totals. Long range guidance is in very good agreement that the active and cold pattern will continue for the most part over the remainder of the month at a minimum. In the meantime, short lived milder temperatures upcoming Thursday and Friday with most spots breaking above the freezing mark followed by a true arctic blast originating all the way up in Siberia. Alberta Clipper driven snow/lake enhanced snow continues Thursday with the flow veering from westerly to northwesterly.
Despite the changing wind direction and waning afternoon moisture, some areas (mainly in counties adjacent to Lake Michigan) could see another few inches of accumulation. Attention then turns to yet another Alberta Clipper tracking by well to the north of the region Friday night into Saturday. This system will do two things, coax mild air northward Friday and drag an arctic cold front across the region early Saturday with strong cold air advection leading to plunging temperatures Saturday afternoon. Periods of lake effect then follow for Sunday into early next week along with bitterly cold temperatures. It's likely that this frigid airmass will result in small snowflakes which when combined with gusty winds will limit visibility at times. Highs early next week expected to struggle to get out of the single digits above zero. Wind chill temperatures early next week are expected to be in the teens below zero possibly necessitating headlines.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1145 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

N/NW flow lake effect snow showers will continue to target our typical snowbelt areas for the most persistent and heaviest snow showers overnight. Low level winds will back to the west and eventually SW on Wednesday in advance of an approaching low pressure system...shifting focus of lake effect snow showers northward to the Tip of the Mitt and the Straits area for Wednesday
Prevailing conditions will remain low VFR/MVFR
with conditions dropping to IFR within heavier snow showers.
Surface winds will remain from the NW at 10 to 15 kts overnight...
shifting to the SW on Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.