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LMZ362 Expires:202312091645;;158687 Fzus63 Kmkx 090920 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 320 am cst Sat dec 9 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis..
southeast winds will quickly come around to southwest through the rest of the morning hours and become gusty as a surface low rapidly deepens to 29.4 inches as it races from the southern end of lake michigan this morning, to just south of james bay by this evening. The rapid strengthening of the low will drive gales from 35 to 40 knots, primarily over the eastern parts of lake michigan closer to the shoreline of the state of michigan. These gales will race northward through the day from the southeastern to northeastern quadrants of lake michigan. Thus, a gale warning has been issued over the southern half and northern half of lake michigan in two separate time segments to capture this evolution.
breezy southwest winds to 20 knots will then continue in the wake of the low, until a cold front passes Sunday morning and winds rise slightly and shift direction, with gusts between 20 to 25 knots out of the northwest expected.

lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-091645- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 320 am cst Sat dec 9 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
.gale warning in effect from 10 am cst this morning through this afternoon...
Today..Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming southwest gales to 40 kt from late morning on. Rain this morning, then slight chance of rain and sprinkles this afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt late in the evening, then becoming west 10 to 20 kt after midnight becoming northwest 15 to 25 kt late. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of snow and slight chance of rain overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of snow in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday night..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west gales to 40 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Tuesday..West gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 kt becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 091150 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 650 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High Impact Weather Potential: Strong wind gusts today.

Pattern Synopsis:

Combined forcing from the merging of a shortwave centered over the upper Midwest and a jet max/shortwave embedded within longwave troughing draped across the central CONUS will continue to pivot over the region today. This forcing will support continued deepening of a cyclone over the Midwest as it treks northeast into the Great Lakes by this afternoon, eventually merging with the gradually- decaying cyclone over Ontario/far northern Great Lakes.

Forecast Details:

The primary hazard across northern Michigan today will be strong winds -- mainly from late morning into the early evening hours.
South-southwest winds are expected to gust to 35-45 mph with the potential for 50+ mph gusts at times. Isolated power outages cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, clouds will continue to spread across northern Michigan this morning as the aforementioned system works into the region, bringing our next round of rain chances. Scattered showers are expected to be working from southwest to northeast across areas south of M-72 by sunrise. Scattered to numerous showers will continue to overspread northern Michigan later this morning and afternoon. The best chances for steadiest rainfall/shower coverage will come across northwest lower and areas of eastern upper west of I-75 in closer proximity to the system center with more scattered coverage anticipated with eastward extent across the CWA.
Regardless, rainfall amounts will stay on the light side with 0.10- 0.25" anticipated for most of northern Michigan.

Already mild temperatures in the 40s this morning will warm several degrees into the upper 40s to mid 50s with the warmest temperatures anticipated across northeast lower ahead of the front set to swing across northern Michigan this afternoon. Overnight temperatures look to cool back into the low to mid 30s with cold advection behind the front. West-southwest flow over the relatively warm Great Lakes waters will bring chances for lake effect rain/snow showers tonight into Saturday morning, despite meager low-level lapse rates prior to 12Z Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Low-medium...accumulating lake effect snow Sunday/night
gusty winds Monday night

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing overtaking the central continent...with shortwave troughing in the northern and southern streams of the flow. Potent vort max off to our NW attm, with attendant 996mb surface low over SW Ontario; strong cold advection on the backside of the low, with a cold front looping back through the Dakotas into the northern Rockies. Warm front with this system is off to our north as of 0z/09. Meanwhile, potent 140+kt upper level jet diving down into the central Plains into the base of the trough axis, driving development of another surface system over KS, which is connected to the northern stream system by a cold front stretching up through the MS Valley. Strong return flow ahead of this, from the Gulf up into MI, with anomalous pwats over MO, and to our north along the deformation axis over Ontario.

Southern stream vort max expected to punch northeastward along the BCZ today into tonight, trekking through the state...with the secondary cold front swinging on out by Sunday
However
do expect surface troughiness to linger into Sunday...as the upper trough axis remains overhead and begins to swing eastward. This is expected to combine with another punch of energy in the southern stream of the flow to develop a strong east coast storm over New England/E. Canada Monday
Meanwhile
in the wake of the trough axis, shortwave ridging slips into the Upper Great Lakes Monday...followed quickly by another punch of vorticity diving out of central Canada Monday night. This is expected to drag a cold front into the area by the end of the short term, with gusty winds and some southwest flow lake effect/lake enhancement potential for the Tip of the Mitt and Eastern Upper.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow/ptypes Sunday...winds Monday night...

Think there could be a bit of light snow with the fropa itself Sunday morning...though the main story will be NW flow lake effect behind the front. Initially, it could be a little mixy, especially near the coasts, but think most areas should transition to snow with time. CAVEAT: freezing drizzle is a possibility in the afternoon as the mid-levels dry out, with 4-5kft inversion heights leaving the top of the cloud layer close enough to -10C to warrant this concern.

Some potential for a decent NW flow band with a Lake Superior connection to set up somewhere in the usual NW flow areas of northern Lower at some point later Sunday afternoon and/or into Sunday night. Think this should be aided by a niblet passing through, though there is some uncertainty as to just when this will occur (0z/11, plus or minus a few hours)...and do think the uncertainty in timing/position of the niblet could shift the focus of the better snowfall totals from the current forecast
Still
at least a couple inches are a decent possibility in the typical NW flow areas (some prob guidance has around a 30 percent chance for greater than 2in), with locally higher amounts wherever the better bands set up, and particularly, if they persist over an area longer than the forecast currently suggests. Do think the EUP could see a sneaky inch or two as well, if/where better banding persists up there, too. Not sure we will see a ton more than that, noting that inversion heights should be a little on the lower side (3-5kft), which should limit deeper convection...though convection could certainly be vigorous at times, and could limit visibilities over sharp areas beneath those bands.

Other main story will be the strengthening winds Monday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of that next system. Think gale force wind gusts of 30-40kts are a good bet, as we should mix up toward 850mb or so, and tap into a decent low- level jet with this next system. Will have to keep an eye on winds, though...as there are some suggestions winds could be even stronger up a couple thousand feet above the layer we're currently expecting to mix into...and any deeper convection may have some potential to draw down those stronger gusts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Low-medium...watching potential for gales Tuesday...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Aforementioned northern stream trough axis should be dipping into the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday, with a punch of cooler air likely to set off the lake machine again. Greatest potential for accumulating snow with this would be across the EUP, thicker into the cold air/overlake instability potential, though will have to see if the main flow ends up more westerly, or a little more northwesterly behind the front. Think the strong gusty winds from Monday night will continue into Tuesday, too, which should make for some blowing snow potential. Additional energy pinwheeling into this Wednesday should keep the troughing idea consistent into midweek, though strong ridging looks to build eastward into central Canada for midweek as well...bringing warm advection and milder air toward the region again

Sort of similar to the current pattern, in a way, with some signals even pointing toward another period of unsettled weather toward next weekend. Think the temperature roller coaster idea will continue...with potential for the early part of the week to be cooler with snow, and the latter half to perhaps be milder again...though guidance is still trying to get a handle on things for the end of the extended in particular.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Flight conditions will continue to degrade over the next few hours with widespread IFR CIGs across most of northern Michigan. MVFR/IFR VSBYs are also possible at times today with rain showers spreading from south to north across the area. Current southeast winds will strengthen through the morning, becoming south/southwest winds around 20 kts with gusts as high as 35-45 kts at times late this morning into early this evening. LLWS will also be possible late this morning into early this afternoon with 50-55kt flow around 2km above ground level. Winds look to weaken some this evening and tonight. A break in precip chances is expected this evening before lake effect rain and snow showers pick back up later tonight.

MARINE

Small craft advisory winds and waves will be in place across northern Great Lakes nearshore waters this morning before gale force wind gusts are expected this afternoon and early evening. Wind gusts as high as 40-45 kts will be possible during that time. Advisory conditions may linger across northern Great Lakes nearshore waters on Sunday. Looking ahead, gale force wind gusts will be possible again Monday night into Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EST this evening for MIZ086>088-095>098.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

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Gaylord, MI,