Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Maywood Park, OR

DISCUSSION
Now through Saturday...Dry weather today will give way to wetter conditions Sunday as a closed upper low and its associated surface low slowly track onshore and fill over the north Oregon coast through the first half of the workweek. There is strong consensus that rain along the cold frontal boundary will spread southward along the coast overnight, then push inland to the Willamette Valley through Sunday morning. Behind the initial rain band, scattered to numerous post-frontal showers Sunday evening will linger into early Tuesday before trending drier. The break from rain showers may be brief as another shortwave tracks overhead late Tuesday, followed by yet another upper low from Wednesday through the remainder of the workweek. While rain is unlikely to persist through this entire period, these systems will bring repeated chances for rain at the end of what has been an unusually dry October in the Pacific Northwest. Ensemble mean 48-hour rainfall totals from 5 AM Sunday through 5 AM Tuesday are 0.75-1.50 inches, with the reasonable high-end amounts of 1.5-2.5 inches also likely insufficient to support any flooding concerns. Snow levels falling to around 5000 ft will allow for light accumulations in the Cascades above pass level through Wednesday, with accumulations to lower elevations possible later in the week.

Temperatures through the period will remain near seasonal norms, namely afternoon highs in the low 50s to low 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Increased cloud cover will help limit the threat of freeze or frost conditions until late next week when there is a chance of clearer overnight skies allowing for colder temperatures. -36

AVIATION
Through 00Z Monday...Currently VFR conditions and high clouds throughout the airspace. While VFR conditions and high clouds will likely persist through the TAF period, coastal terminals will see deteriorated conditions after 10-12Z Sun as a frontal system approaches. Specifically, expect rain to arrive at KAST by 07-09Z Sun and KONP by 12-13Z Sun, and at inland terminals between 13-18Z Sun (from north to south). During this system, probabilistic guidance suggests a 40-70% chance of MVFR and 10-20% chance of IFR conditions at coastal terminals, and a 15-30% chance of MVFR conditions at inland terminals. Otherwise, expect light and variable winds tonight to become south to southeasterly and increase to around 6-11 kt by 09-12Z Sun along the coast and 12-18Z at inland terminals. Coastal terminals will see gusts around 20 kt through most of the TAF period as the front passes through.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions, high clouds, and light and variable winds through most of the period. Southeasterly winds around 5-10 kt develop 12Z Sun ahead of an incoming front.
This front will bring increasing chances for rain and lowering ceilings (15-25% chance of MVFR CIGs ) by 13-15Z Sun. ~12

MARINE
A slow-moving and steadily weakening area of low pressure will traverse waters late tonight into Sunday, causing winds to back out of the south with gusts approaching 25 kt and seas building towards 8-10 ft. Small Craft Advisories therefore remain in effect, with staggered onset times through this evening and tonight as hazardous conditions spread from northwest to southeast. While winds and seas are most likely to subside by Monday afternoon, there is a 30% chance that another system approaching the waters midweek will yield conditions hazardous to small craft. -36/42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ252-272.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ253-273.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ271.