Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 9:23 AM   Moonset 12:47 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 957 Pm Pdt Sun May 12 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 5 ft building to 6 ft Monday evening.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.44 kt at 906 pm Sunday. Seas 5 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 4.74 kt at 908 am Monday. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 2.25 kt at 1006 pm Monday. Seas 6 to 7 ft.

PZZ200 957 Pm Pdt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure will remain anchored offshore and maintain northerly breezes. Thermal low pressure will remain well inland and over far south oregon coast into northwest california.

FXUS66 KPQR 130507 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1006 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024

Updated aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS
A shortwave trough will push through the Pacific Northwest tonight into tomorrow (Monday), returning cooler temperatures. As onshore flow increases, expect marine stratus to return tonight to the coast and push inland to the Willamette Valley. The shortwave trough will be weak, so precipitation is not expected. High pressure ridging returns Tuesday-Thursday, continuing warm, dry, and clear conditions. Uncertainty remains with whether or not this trend continues over the weekend.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday...The latest 500mb analysis depicts an upper level ridge axis over the Great Basin and Interior Northwest. As a result, satellite imagery as of 2 PM PDT show mostly clear skies across of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Most of the marine stratus from this morning has dissipated from the coast, however, some cloud cover remains along the Long Beach Peninsula and far north Oregon coast. Temperatures look on track to reach the upper 70s inland and low to mid 60s along the coast this afternoon.

Tonight through tomorrow (Mon), an upper level shortwave trough will push through the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave system will be weak and mostly dry, so PoPs remain less than 5% across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. As onshore flow increases, expect marine stratus to return tonight to the coast and push inland into the Willamette Valley. We'll also see some high clouds move through the area during the day as the shortwave progresses eastward. With the increased cloud cover, afternoon highs tomorrow are forecast around 6-10 degrees cooler than today. Expect highs tomorrow to peak in the low 70s for inland valleys and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast and higher terrain. The latest NBM shows a 15-25% chance of high temps exceeding 75 degrees F in the Willamette Valley tomorrow.

On Tuesday, ensemble guidance are in agreement of upper level ridging re-building over the Pacific Northwest. This will help return clear skies across the region during the day, and thus warmer afternoon temperatures. NBM shows a 40-70% chance of Tuesday afternoon highs exceeding 75 degrees F in the Willamette Valley (highest chances in the central and north Valley). A thermal trough develops along the southern Oregon coast, but doesn't quite reach the central/north Oregon and south Washington coast. As a result, we're not looking at any strong east flow developing, but rather more northerly to north-northeasterly winds. -Alviz

LONG TERM
Tuesday night through Saturday...WPC cluster analyses are in agreement of upper level ridging continuing over the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. This will maintain dry and warm conditions under predominately clear skies. NBM suggests a 50-70% chance of Willamette Valley highs exceeding 80 degrees F on Wednesday, and a 40-50% chance on Thursday. About 60% of ensemble members do have the ridge flattening slightly on Thursday, so afternoon highs could be a few degrees cooler than Wednesday.

Cluster agreement lessens on Friday as 50% of ensemble members think we'll maintain upper level ridging, while the other 50% suggests more troughing/zonal flow. This uncertainty continues through the weekend. If models trend toward a troughing/zonal flow pattern, we'll likely see temperatures cool and a slight chance (15-24%) of PoPs over higher terrain. If models trend toward keeping the ridge, then expect the forecast to maintain warm, dry, and clear conditions. -Alviz

AVIATION
High pressure continues, with mostly clear skies throughout the region, but a weakening front offshore will . Low stratus is filling in on the coast with generally IFR conditions.
Afterwards conditions look to remain mostly IFR at the coast with improving conditions after 20Z Mon, but not likely to be much above low MVFR.

Further inland, northern terminals will see stratus clouds push in around 12Z Mon, with a 80-90% chance of MVFR ceilings developing at that time. Only around a 15% chance of IFR conditions developing throughout the rest of Sunday night. Further south (south of KSLE), marine clouds should not impact the area, and chances of MVFR ceilings are under 10%.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies for the rest of daytime hours. Marine clouds push in overnight, with MVFR CIGS developing around 09z Mon. Only around 10-20% chance of ceilings reaching IFR thresholds at that time. /JLiu

MARINE
The summerlike pattern continues through the middle of the upcoming week, and the thermal low pressure shifts farther inland to maintain moderate to strong northerly breezes for the next several days. Gradients will tighten just enough to allow winds to gust to 25 kt across the waters this afternoon, supporting low end Small Craft Advisories through late this evening. Winds will continue to follow a diurnal trend for the next few days, with additional rounds of small craft headlines possible each afternoon and evening. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon/evening look a little stronger, with gusts up to 30 kt possible. Chance of any winds reaching gale level is around 40% for Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas will generally remain in the 4-6 ft range driven by northerly wind waves and a modest westerly swell. /CB/CCR

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ 253-273

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