Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 9:39 PM   Moonset 5:39 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 216 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night - .
In the main channel -
General seas - 6 to 8 ft through Friday evening.
First ebb - Ebb current of 3.3 kt at 629 pm Thursday. Seas 7 ft.
SEcond ebb - Strong ebb current of 5.74 kt at 634 am Friday. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.01 kt at 702 pm Friday. Seas 7 to 8 ft.

PZZ200 216 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - The last remnants of a frontal system from earlier today continue to produce gusty southwesterly/westerly winds and choppy seas. Winds gradually ease and turn more westerly tonight into Friday. The next system arrives on Saturday.

FXUS66 KPQR 251657 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 957 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MORNING UPDATE
Satellite, radar, and surface observations depict widespread rainfall underway across the region this morning thanks to a fairly moisture laden weather disturbance moving through the Pacific Northwest. Thus far as of 10am, the coast/coast range has received between 0.5-0.9" of rainfall with measurements of 0.1-0.4" across the inland valleys and Cascades. As we move through the rest of the day this light rain is expected to continue before the passage of a frontal boundary currently offshore facilitates a transition to post- frontal showers early this evening. Guidance also suggests winds will be a little breezy at times today, even inland. High confidence(80-95%) in widespread southerly gusts around 20-30 mph for portions of the Willamette Valley and SW Washington- slightly higher gusts along the coast (25-40 mph), especially along exposed beaches and headlands. The previous discussion remains below. -Schuldt



SYNOPSIS
Front will push inland today, with clouds and rain through the day. Showers tonight through Sat am, then another front will arrive with more rain for Sat afternoon into Sat night.
Unsettled weather with showers continues into early next week.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)...This evening onward it looks like will have a decent shot of rainfall, with most areas getting 0.50 to 0.75 inch of rain total. But, bit more (1 to 2 inches) along the coast into the Coast Range and Willapa Hills and parts of the Cascades from Mt Hood northward across the south Washington Cascades. Speaking of the Cascades, snow levels will stay somewhat elevated today into this evening, with new accumulations of 3 to 7 inches of snow above about 5500 ft, though could get as much as 8 to 12 inches on the higher peaks above 7000 ft. With the snow, and time of the year, will issue Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades for today through Fri evening.

Models have been persistent depicting a surface low drifting out of the Gulf of Alaska towards the Pac NW later tonight through Fri, with that low weakening as it moves inland near Astoria later Fri into Fri evening. With this, showers will continue Fri/Fri evening. Snow levels remain at 4500 to 5000 feet, with another 3 to 8 inches in the Cascades Fri into Fri evening.

Next system will be fast approaching on Sat. The morning may be mostly dry, but will still have some lingering showers about the area. As the front approaches, rain will increase along the coast by mid-day, with that rain spreading inland in the afternoon. Again, this will be a fast moving front, with front moving across the region early Sat evening, with rain transitioning to showers. With fast movement, does not look like will get a lot of rain, with most areas in the 0.15 to 0.33 inch range, though few spots (such as the Coast Range/Willapa Hills) could get 0.50 to 0.75 inch. /Rockey


LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)...Pattern is rather progressive, with fronts moving off the northeast Pacific into the Pacific NW. Yet another front will push across the region Sunday night, with post-frontal showers on tap for Monday. Still a bit cooler than that expected for late April, with overall temperatures in the lowlands in the 50s to lower 60s. Snow levels will run 2500 to 3500 ft, which will maintain some snow at times for the higher terrain of the foothills, as well as most of the Cascades.

Few showers around region on Tuesday, but think most of the day will wind up being mostly dry, as will have weak ridging over the region.
But, models show another potent front offshore later Tue night/early Wed, with that front pushing inland on Wed. With this, does look to be more rainy that showery for Wed. As such, will adjust forecasts to reflect this trend. After that, models still in quite a bit of flux.
Prior runs were showing upper low dropping southward towards north Calif (remaining just offshore of Oregon/Washington). Most recent runs indicate that this low will stay off the Pac NW coast, and drift inland next Fri. So, will just keep next Thu/Fri unsettled with showers. /Rockey



AVIATION
A frontal system is currently in the process of pushing through the area, with coastal terminals predominantly IFR.
Some brief periods of LIFR thresholds will be possible at the coast, particularly at KONP which is right under the heaviest moisture. Inland, mostly just MVFR is expected; only a 10-20% chance of IFR ceilings or visibility is expected inland. Southerly gusts up to 25 kt will be possible throughout most of today, with winds dropping off around 04z Fri. Coastal gusts will be slightly stronger (30 kt), dropping to around 20 kt around the same time.
/JLiu

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. There is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately MVFR cigs through the TAF period as the frontal system continues pushing in. Visibility could drop to MVFR thresholds at times with steady, moderate rain.
Southerly winds will be around 10-15 kt today, with gusts up to 25 kt possible until 04z Fri. Guidance suggests only around a 10-20% chance of IFR cigs during the TAF period.
-Alviz/JLiu

MARINE
Mesoanalysis as of 230 AM PDT depicts a warm front lifting over the waters early this (Thu) morning, bringing rain and southerly winds. Expect winds to gradually strengthen this morning as the trailing cold front pushes through. The current Small Craft Advisory remains on track as there is high confidence that the waters will see southwesterly winds gusting to 25-30 kt today. Occasional gusts to 35 kt are possible for all waters with the cold frontal passage between 11 AM-3 PM (40-60% chance). Since any gale force gusts will likely be sporadic and temporary, a Gale Warning was not issued. Seas will be choppy and build to around 7-9 ft at 8-9 seconds.

Winds turn more westerly/northwesterly Thursday night into Friday as the low pressure system pushes inland. Winds begin to ease slightly with gusts to 20-25 kt. However, a westerly swell will enter the waters and build seas to around 9-11 ft. These elevated seas are brief, as the swell height falls Friday night to Saturday. The next frontal system arrives on Saturday, will return gusty southwesterly winds. The latest NBM shows a 20-30% chance of gale force wind gusts of 34 kt or greater across the waters Saturday. -Alviz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PDT Friday night for ORZ127-128.

WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273.

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