Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elgin, OR

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:50PM Monday January 25, 2021 11:08 AM PST (19:08 UTC) Moonrise 2:46PMMoonset 6:06AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elgin, OR
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location: 45.61, -117.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Pendleton, OR
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FXUS66 KPDT 251739 AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 939 AM PST Mon Jan 25 2021

Updated Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM . Upper level trough remains over the area this morning. Observations show steady light snow over northeast Oregon into southeast Washington. Models and satellite indicate the light snow will continue with a gradual decreasing trend in the afternoon. A brief break in the weather tonight. New snow cover will result in cold temperatures with lows in the teens and 20s. Next storm is rapidly approaching the Pacific northwest and will bring another round of mountain snow and lower elevation rain Tue night and Wed. Snow levels will be a little higher with this system. 94

AVIATION . 18Z TAFs . LIFR to VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period, with concerns of continuing light snow today and patchy fog developing tonight. Right now, light snow continues to impact sites PSC/ALW/PDT this morning as a system slowly moves through the region. Have kept light snow at sites ALW/PDT through 00Z while light snow is expected to end before 22Z at site PSC. CIGS from 500ft to 3kft will continue to impact all northern sites through the morning, with ceilings improving to MVFR and persisting at sites PDT/ALW/YKM through the TAF period, while sites DLS/PSC will see CIGS improve to VFR this afternoon and decreasing to IFR-MVFR tonight. Sites RDM/BDN will see VFR CIGS and vsby through the TAF period. Patchy fog will redevelop tonight across the lower elevation sites, with DLS/PSC/YKM becoming MVFR vsby overnight, and sites PDT/ALW becoming IFR overnight. Winds will generally be light, less than 10kts, through the TAF period at all sites. Lawhorn/82

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 430 AM PST Mon Jan 25 2021/

SHORT TERM . Monday through Wednesday night . Light snow associated with a cold front will taper off early this morning, lingering in the Blues through the early afternoon. So far much of the CWA has seen only a few tenths, with snow mostly staying off roadways given temps wavering around freezing for most areas. Some patchy freezing fog will form in the wake of this front, mainly in the valleys and the Gorge, before tapering off in the afternoon as dry northerly flow aloft settles in. The trough associated with this front will then move eastward and leave us mostly dry through at least Tuesday afternoon. Fog may reform Monday night into Tuesday, but is expected to remain patchy and brief.

Next round of precip arrives Tuesday evening as a strengthening surface low stalls just of the coast of the PacNW, ushering in moist SW flow aloft. This will mark the beginning of a warming trend expected to last through the week, however the orientation of the flow aloft should allow colder air to linger in the Yakima and Kittitas Valley long enough to allow for mostly snow through Wednesday evening. Current guidance is suggesting possible headline- worthy snowfall in these areas, with GEFS and ECMWF QPF ensembles suggesting anywhere from a few tenths to a half inch of liquid precip, enough for a few inches of snow accumulation. Forecast is subject to change as models get a better idea of the orientation and strength of the flow aloft associated with this surface low, but will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves. Could see a few inches as well in the Blues and Cascades, while temps are too borderline at this time for central OR and the lower Basin to commit to ptype at this time.

Given the strength of this surface low, locally gusty winds are a possibility Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance already suggesting advisory-level winds possible for the Grande Ronde Valley. 850 hPa pressure gradients seem to support this, so Tuesday night/Wednesday looks to be an active day of weather for large portions of the forecast area. 74

LONG TERM . Thursday through Monday . Unsettled conditions at times across the Cascades and the northeast mountains in the long term. The most active window appears to fall Friday night through the weekend. Additional active weather then possible early next week. Elsewhere, generally dry conditions are anticipated across parts of the Basin and south central WA with low-end chance for the most part. Generally near seasonable temperatures in this period, leaning slightly below normal Thursday in spots.

Large scale pattern will be characterized by periodic ejecting open shortwaves trough in the long term with an upper trough and cyclonic flow dominating the pattern beginning Friday. Ensemble and deterministic guidance in fair agreement starting out with an elongated upper trough on/near the West Coast Thursday. Of which, this upper trough will move inland with an embedded shortwave trough moving directly east across the area into northern ID by early Friday. Moderate-high confidence with the forecast Thursday based on the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble though there is then increasing spread by Friday due to differences in amplitude and phase of this trough as it evolves. That said, the main item will be the chances of snow in the Cascades, John Day Highlands, and Blues- Wallowas, the latter having lingering snow possibly continue Friday. Guidance by and large in fair agreement with the development of a closed low in the Gulf of Alaska early this weekend that will be moving south more into the eastern North Pacific Saturday Night/Sunday. Meantime, cyclonic flow will be affecting the region this weekend out of the southwest. While there are some differences in the ensemble guidance and across their members, a deep anomalous upper low is expected to be upstream nonetheless. A decent plume of moisture is expected to wrapping around and be positioned towards northern CA and parts of the Pacific NW coast. While there is some uncertainty in the trajectory/placement, there will be potential for light to moderate mountain snow. That said, the greatest focus will be on the OR Cascades which seems reasonable based on IVT ensemble plots and best IVT probs. Generally unsettled conditions are expected to continue through Monday. Elsewhere, an upper level ridge is expected to then start working and building upstream into the eastern North Pacific Monday with the aforementioned upper trough moving onshore Monday night/Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. PDT 34 23 39 29 / 80 10 0 40 ALW 34 26 39 32 / 80 10 0 40 PSC 36 26 39 32 / 80 0 0 40 YKM 36 23 34 26 / 40 0 10 70 HRI 36 26 40 31 / 80 0 0 30 ELN 35 20 31 25 / 30 0 10 70 RDM 34 14 36 25 / 20 0 10 60 LGD 32 19 33 27 / 90 10 0 50 GCD 32 18 35 29 / 80 10 0 80 DLS 39 28 39 31 / 30 0 10 80

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None.

UPDATE . 94 AVIATION . 82


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
La Grande/Union County Airport, OR23 mi73 minSSE 31.75 miLight Snow33°F28°F82%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLGD

Wind History from LGD (wind in knots)
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.