Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Minnehaha, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 4:28PM Saturday December 14, 2019 5:10 AM PST (13:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:08PMMoonset 10:04AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 300 Am Pst Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...14 to 16 ft early this morning gradually decreasing today to 8 to 10 ft by late Saturday night. - first ebb...around 6 am Saturday. Seas near 17 ft with breakers likely. - second ebb...very strong. Around 6 pm Saturday. Seas near 15 ft with breakers. - third ebb...around 645 am Sunday. Seas near 11 ft.
PZZ200 300 Am Pst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak surface low will move southeastward towards the oregon/california border today. Weak high pressure shifts across the waters on Sunday. Offshore flow will develop early next week before a series of fronts bring increasing winds and seas during the latter half of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnehaha, WA
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location: 45.62, -122.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 141151 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 327 AM PST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Northwest flow aloft over the forecast area through the weekend will result in a continued chance of light precipitation. High pressure builds offshore Sunday night and gradually shifts toward the coast Monday. The high pressure shifts east of the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. A more progressive and wetter pattern is expected for the latter half of next week.

SHORT TERM. Saturday through Monday . The trough from last evening will continue to bring scattered light showers into the area through this morning mainly affecting the coast and mountains. A more significant shortwave trough now near 130W off the WA/OR coast, will dive southeast towards northern CA. This will bring a chance of showers over the southern half of the forecast area. Also late afternoon and early evening as the low approaches there could be thunderstorms over the coastal waters west of Newport. Model soundings show thin CAPE up to -20C, marginal but worth mentioning. As the shortwave dives into CA late tonight and Sunday so will chances for precipitation. There should be ample low level moisture and stability for fog and stratus across much the interior lowlands through Sunday. An upper level ridge builds offshore Sunday and continues to build through Monday in response to a deepening trough associated with a low over the Aleutians. Most models are now showing a weak warm front that'll brush the coastal areas late Sunday and Monday. /26

LONG TERM. Monday night through Friday . Above-average forecast confidence in the first half of the extended period. The 12Z operational runs and respective ensembles are in good agreement with the upper ridge slowly moving across the Pac NW early next week. Like with recent systems the energy of this system is splitting and headed toward offshore of California. 00Z runs of the GFS and Canadian are more progressive in bringing pcpn to the area, while the ECMWF splits the energy to the north and south of the forecast area for lower chances of pcpn.

Forecast confidence lowers Wed through Fri. However, there is reasonable confidence that a return to a more progressive and wetter pattern is in store for the latter half of next week. Models show a more consolidated jet stream directed at Oregon and northern California beginning Wed night. Again, it appears southwest Oregon and northern California will be the more favored QPF areas. Model 1000-500 mb thickness values valid Fri are expected to be near 537 dm across SW Washington to the mid 540s for Lane County. Thus, snow levels will hover near to just below the passes across the north and near the passes in the Central Cascades. /26 Weishaar

AVIATION. A weakly stable low level atmosphere and light winds are leading to plenty of low clouds scattered about the region this morning. This has led to a mix of VFR, MVFR and IFR conditions across the area this morning. Some light southerly winds in the Willamette Valley and a weakly stable lower atmosphere should allow the low clouds to lift and result in conditions becoming predominantly a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions between 19z Saturday and 02z Sunday. Ceilings may even scatter out, particularly in the southern half of the Willamette Valley this morning. Passing mid and high level clouds this evening should temporarily delay the onset of IFR conditions, but light winds and lingering low level moisture should allow fog and/or low clouds to eventually develop. This should result in conditions trending towards predominantly IFR and LIFR thresholds between 03-12z Sunday where conditions will likely then hold steady through ~18z Sunday. A weak low pressure moving southeastward into southwest Oregon could spread some light rain towards KONP and KEUG between 21z Saturday and 03z Sunday, but even these sites should clear enough thereafter to see conditions deteriorate.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Plenty of low clouds trapped in the Willamette Valley this morning will produce a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions initially. Some light southerly winds in the valley and only a weakly stable atmosphere should allow the low clouds to lift and result in conditions becoming predominantly a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions between 20z Saturday and 02z Sunday. There is a chance ceilings scatter out, but unsure if the clearing to the south will make it this far north. Passing high clouds this evening should temporarily delay the onset of IFR conditions, but light winds and lingering low level moisture should allow fog and/or low clouds to eventually develop. This should result in conditions trending towards predominantly IFR and LIFR between 03-12z Sunday where conditions will likely then hold steady through ~18z Sunday. /Neuman

MARINE. A westerly swell continues to bring elevated seas to the waters early this morning. Expect seas to continue to trend downward today and will likely drop below 10 ft either this afternoon or evening. However, would not be surprised to see periodic stretches of 10 ft even into early Sunday, but will see how wave height trends play out at buoys today before extending the Small Craft Advisory any further in time. A couple fronts will then push across the waters this week or at least approach close enough to the region to bring bouts of gusty southerly winds to the waters. There continue to be enough fluctuations in the models that a blend of models was used in the official forecast to show several days of unsettled weather are in store. There is potential for Gale Force winds Wednesday or Thursday depending on the model scenario, but again confidence in any particular scenario is low at this point. /Neuman

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 37 mi77 min 45°F1017 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 66 mi77 min 50°F1016.9 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 71 mi71 min E 1.9 G 4.1 42°F 46°F1015.7 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA1 mi18 minN 010.00 miOvercast43°F39°F86%1017.2 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR4 mi18 minS 310.00 miOvercast44°F39°F85%1017.4 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR14 mi18 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F37°F97%1017 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR15 mi18 minN 010.00 miOvercast45°F39°F83%1017.3 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR16 mi18 minS 36.00 miFog/Mist42°F41°F96%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVUO

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5Calm----5SW7SW5SW6SW75--Calm565CalmSW65Calm4E4SE7SE5Calm
1 day ago45E5E9E7SE4NW5NW7SE7E5SW93S6S33W6SW7E34S3E4E3CalmE3
2 days ago4E7E76E9E9E7E7E5E7E8E86E11E9E7E8E7E6------4E4

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Sat -- 04:11 AM PST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM PST     1.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:04 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:28 PM PST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:36 PM PST     1.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM PST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:08 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:32 PM PST     2.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.2-0-0.2-0.10.411.41.61.41.21.11.11.110.80.91.21.72.12.11.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:41 AM PST     7.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM PST     2.91 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:10 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:34 PM PST     9.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:09 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:16 PM PST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.24.36.17.37.56.95.74.53.533.14.26.17.99.19.28.46.94.92.81.1-0.1-0.7-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.