Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Shore, WA
March 28, 2024 4:44 PM PDT (23:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:55 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 10:39 PM Moonset 7:10 AM |
PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 228 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 28 2024
.hazardous seas warning in effect through late tonight - .
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday afternoon - .
In the main channel -
General seas - 13 to 16 ft subsiding to 10 to 12 ft Friday morning.
First ebb - Ebb current of 3.5 kt at 719 pm Thursday. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 5.2 kt at 734 am Friday. Seas 10 to 11 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.03 kt at 754 pm Friday. Seas 7 ft.
PZZ200 228 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 28 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - A low pressure system currently spinning offshore of washington will continue gusty winds and choppy, elevated seas through this evening. As the low pressure weakens tonight, expect winds to also weaken and seas to gradually fall early Friday morning. A more summer-like northerly wind pattern develops over the weekend continuing into early next week.
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 282235 AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 335 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms continues through this evening as a low pressure system spins offshore. Conditions begin to improve on Friday, with high pressure bringing another period of warm and dry weather this weekend into early next week. A mid-week frontal system will likely bring a return to cooler and wet weather.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)...A vertically stacked low pressure system continues to spin as it wobbles about 200 miles offshore from the Washington Olympic Peninsula. Rain showers, along with high Cascade snow showers, will gradually diminish overnight as the low continues to weaken and move south. With a relatively cold airmass aloft producing steep lapse rates, will maintain a chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms along the coast, and a slight chance (15- 20%) of thunder inland through this evening. Instability is expected to be much more limited than yesterday inland as cloudy skies and widespread showers have limited day-time heating. The main hazards will likely be small hail and gusty winds with the stronger showers and thunderstorms. The Cascade passes have generally seen a few inches of snowfall, though with temperatures hovering around 32-33 degrees this afternoon, not expecting impactful accumulations.
Also noticeable today has been the breezy southerly winds, as winds have generally gusted to around 30 to 40 mph. Max wind gusts so far today have been observed at the Salem (43 mph) and Aurora (44 mph)
airports. Expect breezy conditions to continue through this evening, before winds begin to shift more offshore later tonight as the surface low drifts farther south.
Will maintain a chance of showers for the coast into Friday morning, with much of the inland lowlands returning to drier weather. A strengthening low moving toward the central California coast will send some wrap around moisture toward the Cascades Friday afternoon, so will likely see an uptick in showers there, while snow levels rise to around 4000-4500 ft. Winds shift more northerly by Friday afternoon while temperatures return to seasonable normals.
Easter weekend will feature mostly sunny skies, dry weather and warming temperatures as upper level ridging over the NE Pacific gradually shifts into the Pacific NW and dry northeasterly flow dominates. NBM guidance suggests high confidence and low uncertainty of high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s through inland valleys, and mid to upper 50s at the coast. Appears that March will be finishing 'out like a lamb' this year. /Hartsock
LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday...What kind of weather will April bring us this year? Well, it appears at least to begin quite pleasantly as dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected to persist into early next week. Ensemble means show a southwest- northeast oriented ridge axis moving over the Pac NW on Monday before shifting east of the Cascades Tuesday. This will maintain the dry and warmer weather with highs likely reaching the mid to upper 60s, although there is still some uncertainty on Tuesday. But most models and their ensemble solutions (70-80%) suggest precipitation holds off until at least late Tues night to early Wed morning.
Temperatures on Tuesday will largely depend on the timing of the next system, with higher temps likely (greater than 50% chance) of topping 70 degrees if the system holds off until Wed. A faster system would bring more cloudiness and thus hold temperatures in the 60s on Tues. Nevertheless, the next frontal system is expected to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska late Tuesday into Wednesday. It appears very likely we will cool down as light rain returns along with some post frontal showers on Thursday. /DH
AVIATION
Radar imagery as of 22z Thursday depicts shower activity across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as a low pressure system remains settled offshore. Expect a mix of low-end VFR and intermittent MVFR cigs/vis this evening as the region maintains this showery trend. With cool air aloft creating an unstable environment, there is a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms along the coast from now through 15z Fri. Meanwhile, Willamette Valley terminals will see a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms from now through 03z Fri. Any passing thunderstorms could bring brief downpours, small hail, and moments of lightning.
Winds this evening will generally be S-SW, with gusts up to 25-30 kt along the coast and 20-25 kt inland (strongest gusts during times of passing thunderstorms or heavy showers). Tonight, the low pressure system offshore will weaken, leading to diminishing showers, weakening winds, and predominately VFR cigs across the region. Upper level high pressure begins to build Friday, so expect skies to gradually clear throughout the day.
* Note: The observations out of KONP are generally limited to wind and pressure at this time. Periodically cloud cover, vis, and present wx are reported but are unreliable.
PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately low-end VFR cigs this evening with intermittent MVFR cigs/vis during times of heavier showers and thunderstorms. There is a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms now through 03z Fri. Thunderstorms could bring brief downpours, small hail, and moments of lightning. SSW winds may gust up to 20-25 kt through 02z Fri. Later in the evening, gusts begin to die down and sustained winds remain around 09-12 kt. -Alviz
MARINE
Satellite imagery and mesoanalysis as of 230 PM PDT depicts a 992 mb low pressure system centered approximately 172 nautical miles west-northwest of Cape Shoalwater, WA. As this system remains offshore, expect southwest winds to continue across the waters through this evening with gusts up to 35-40 kt.
In addition, a large west-southwesterly swell will continue pushing through the coastal waters, maintaining elevated seas.
Expect seas to peak between 16 to 20 ft this evening with a period of 12 to 13 seconds (highest Cape Falcon southward). Note: there is also a 25-35% chance of thunderstorms through 2 AM PDT, with chances falling to 15-20% between 2 AM to 11 AM PST. Any thunderstorms over the waters have the potential for brief downpours (which may reduce visibility), small hail, and lightning.
After 10-11 PM PDT, models are showing the low pressure system moving southward and weakening. As a result, expect winds to weaken to around 10-15 kt late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Seas will also begin to subside but remain elevated (14-16 ft), so a Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect overnight. By mid-morning Friday, seas are forecast to fall to around 10-12 ft and subside further in the afternoon.
Late Friday through the weekend model guidance is in agreement on a positively tilted ridge of high pressure moving across the Pacific Northwest, thus facilitating a more summer-like northerly wind pattern across the coastal waters. Looking ahead, models hint at the return of a more active weather pattern around the middle of next week, although confidence is low on the exact timing and marine impacts at this time. -Alviz/Schuldt
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273.
Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 335 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms continues through this evening as a low pressure system spins offshore. Conditions begin to improve on Friday, with high pressure bringing another period of warm and dry weather this weekend into early next week. A mid-week frontal system will likely bring a return to cooler and wet weather.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)...A vertically stacked low pressure system continues to spin as it wobbles about 200 miles offshore from the Washington Olympic Peninsula. Rain showers, along with high Cascade snow showers, will gradually diminish overnight as the low continues to weaken and move south. With a relatively cold airmass aloft producing steep lapse rates, will maintain a chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms along the coast, and a slight chance (15- 20%) of thunder inland through this evening. Instability is expected to be much more limited than yesterday inland as cloudy skies and widespread showers have limited day-time heating. The main hazards will likely be small hail and gusty winds with the stronger showers and thunderstorms. The Cascade passes have generally seen a few inches of snowfall, though with temperatures hovering around 32-33 degrees this afternoon, not expecting impactful accumulations.
Also noticeable today has been the breezy southerly winds, as winds have generally gusted to around 30 to 40 mph. Max wind gusts so far today have been observed at the Salem (43 mph) and Aurora (44 mph)
airports. Expect breezy conditions to continue through this evening, before winds begin to shift more offshore later tonight as the surface low drifts farther south.
Will maintain a chance of showers for the coast into Friday morning, with much of the inland lowlands returning to drier weather. A strengthening low moving toward the central California coast will send some wrap around moisture toward the Cascades Friday afternoon, so will likely see an uptick in showers there, while snow levels rise to around 4000-4500 ft. Winds shift more northerly by Friday afternoon while temperatures return to seasonable normals.
Easter weekend will feature mostly sunny skies, dry weather and warming temperatures as upper level ridging over the NE Pacific gradually shifts into the Pacific NW and dry northeasterly flow dominates. NBM guidance suggests high confidence and low uncertainty of high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s through inland valleys, and mid to upper 50s at the coast. Appears that March will be finishing 'out like a lamb' this year. /Hartsock
LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday...What kind of weather will April bring us this year? Well, it appears at least to begin quite pleasantly as dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected to persist into early next week. Ensemble means show a southwest- northeast oriented ridge axis moving over the Pac NW on Monday before shifting east of the Cascades Tuesday. This will maintain the dry and warmer weather with highs likely reaching the mid to upper 60s, although there is still some uncertainty on Tuesday. But most models and their ensemble solutions (70-80%) suggest precipitation holds off until at least late Tues night to early Wed morning.
Temperatures on Tuesday will largely depend on the timing of the next system, with higher temps likely (greater than 50% chance) of topping 70 degrees if the system holds off until Wed. A faster system would bring more cloudiness and thus hold temperatures in the 60s on Tues. Nevertheless, the next frontal system is expected to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska late Tuesday into Wednesday. It appears very likely we will cool down as light rain returns along with some post frontal showers on Thursday. /DH
AVIATION
Radar imagery as of 22z Thursday depicts shower activity across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as a low pressure system remains settled offshore. Expect a mix of low-end VFR and intermittent MVFR cigs/vis this evening as the region maintains this showery trend. With cool air aloft creating an unstable environment, there is a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms along the coast from now through 15z Fri. Meanwhile, Willamette Valley terminals will see a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms from now through 03z Fri. Any passing thunderstorms could bring brief downpours, small hail, and moments of lightning.
Winds this evening will generally be S-SW, with gusts up to 25-30 kt along the coast and 20-25 kt inland (strongest gusts during times of passing thunderstorms or heavy showers). Tonight, the low pressure system offshore will weaken, leading to diminishing showers, weakening winds, and predominately VFR cigs across the region. Upper level high pressure begins to build Friday, so expect skies to gradually clear throughout the day.
* Note: The observations out of KONP are generally limited to wind and pressure at this time. Periodically cloud cover, vis, and present wx are reported but are unreliable.
PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately low-end VFR cigs this evening with intermittent MVFR cigs/vis during times of heavier showers and thunderstorms. There is a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms now through 03z Fri. Thunderstorms could bring brief downpours, small hail, and moments of lightning. SSW winds may gust up to 20-25 kt through 02z Fri. Later in the evening, gusts begin to die down and sustained winds remain around 09-12 kt. -Alviz
MARINE
Satellite imagery and mesoanalysis as of 230 PM PDT depicts a 992 mb low pressure system centered approximately 172 nautical miles west-northwest of Cape Shoalwater, WA. As this system remains offshore, expect southwest winds to continue across the waters through this evening with gusts up to 35-40 kt.
In addition, a large west-southwesterly swell will continue pushing through the coastal waters, maintaining elevated seas.
Expect seas to peak between 16 to 20 ft this evening with a period of 12 to 13 seconds (highest Cape Falcon southward). Note: there is also a 25-35% chance of thunderstorms through 2 AM PDT, with chances falling to 15-20% between 2 AM to 11 AM PST. Any thunderstorms over the waters have the potential for brief downpours (which may reduce visibility), small hail, and lightning.
After 10-11 PM PDT, models are showing the low pressure system moving southward and weakening. As a result, expect winds to weaken to around 10-15 kt late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Seas will also begin to subside but remain elevated (14-16 ft), so a Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect overnight. By mid-morning Friday, seas are forecast to fall to around 10-12 ft and subside further in the afternoon.
Late Friday through the weekend model guidance is in agreement on a positively tilted ridge of high pressure moving across the Pacific Northwest, thus facilitating a more summer-like northerly wind pattern across the coastal waters. Looking ahead, models hint at the return of a more active weather pattern around the middle of next week, although confidence is low on the exact timing and marine impacts at this time. -Alviz/Schuldt
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273.
Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
KLMW1 | 23 mi | 56 min | 29.76 | |||||
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA | 33 mi | 56 min | 48°F | 29.75 | ||||
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR | 61 mi | 56 min | 52°F | 29.76 |
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No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KVUO PEARSON FIELD,WA | 6 sm | 19 min | S 09G20 | 10 sm | Overcast | 48°F | 39°F | 71% | 29.82 | |
KPDX PORTLAND INTL,OR | 10 sm | 16 min | S 15G24 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 48°F | 41°F | 76% | 29.80 |
KSPB SCAPPOOSE INDUSTRIAL AIRPARK,OR | 10 sm | 44 min | S 11G21 | 10 sm | Overcast | 50°F | 41°F | 71% | 29.78 | |
KHIO PORTLANDHILLSBORO,OR | 12 sm | 51 min | S 15G26 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 48°F | 43°F | 81% | 29.77 | |
KTTD PORTLANDTROUTDALE,OR | 21 sm | 15 min | SSW 09G17 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 50°F | 43°F | 76% | 29.82 |
Tide / Current for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Knapp Landing, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS, Tide feet
Portland, OR,
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